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Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices sink after Trump announces Israel and Iran have agreed to ceasefire
Oil futures fell late Monday after President Trump announced a ceasefire timeline for the Israel-Iran conflict. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell about 4% to trade near $66 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also tumbled to hover near $68 per barrel. "It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE," wrote Trump on social media Monday evening. Trump laid out a timeline for the end of hostilities. "On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR"", wrote Trump. Oil settled 7% lower on Monday after Iran launched missile attacks on a US air base in Qatar, retaliating against Washington's strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Prices further weakened after Trump hinted Iran's retaliation had been telegraphed. 'I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured,' Trump wrote on social media. 'Iran's response appears to have been more symbolic than escalatory — targeting US military bases but avoiding any loss of life or damage to energy structure,' Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Monday afternoon. Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios in the wake of the initial US strikes, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil flows. JPMorgan analysts projected the closure would be a "severe outcome" scenario, in which oil futures could spike to $120 to $130. "Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," wrote Natasha Kaneva on Monday morning. JPMorgan expects oil to trade in the low-to-mid-$60 range for the remainder of 2025, assuming the Middle East risk premium fully dissipates. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices sink after Trump announces Israel and Iran have agreed to ceasefire
Oil futures extended losses late Monday after President Trump announced a ceasefire timeline for the Israel-Iran conflict. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell about 4% to trade near $66 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also tumbled to hover near $68 per barrel. "It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE," wrote Trump on social media Monday evening. Trump laid out a timeline for the end of hostilities. "On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR"", wrote Trump. Oil settled 7% lower on Monday after Iran launched missile attacks on a US air base in Qatar, retaliating against Washington's strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Prices further weakened after Trump hinted Iran's retaliation had been telegraphed. 'I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured,' Trump wrote on social media. 'Iran's response appears to have been more symbolic than escalatory — targeting US military bases but avoiding any loss of life or damage to energy structure,' Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Monday afternoon. Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios in the wake of the initial US strikes, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil flows. JPMorgan analysts projected the closure would be a "severe outcome" scenario, in which oil futures could spike to $120 to $130. "Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," wrote Natasha Kaneva on Monday morning. JPMorgan expects oil to trade in the low-to-mid-$60 range for the remainder of 2025, assuming the Middle East risk premium fully dissipates. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices dive further after Trump says US given 'early notice' of Iran retaliatory strike
Oil futures extended losses late Monday after President Trump said Iran's retaliatory missile strikes against a US base in Qatar was telegraphed, further cementing optimism that neither country wants to further escalate the Middle East conflict. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell nearly 9% to hover near $67, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also tumbled nearly 9% to almost $70 per barrel. Oil's slide deepened after Trump wrote on social media, painting Iran's strikes as a way to get "it all out of their 'system.'" "Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered," Trump wrote. 'I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured,' Trump said. He added he would encourage Israel to seek peace in the conflict. Oil had surged in the immediate aftermath of the US's weekend strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. But it quickly plummeted after Iran launched missile attacks against a US air base in Qatar, matching the number of bombs dropped by the US. 'Iran's response appears to have been more symbolic than escalatory — targeting US military bases but avoiding any loss of life or damage to energy structure,' Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Monday afternoon. Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios after the initial US strikes, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil flows. JPMorgan analysts projected the closure would be a "severe outcome" scenario, in which oil futures could spike to $120 to $130. "Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," wrote Natasha Kaneva on Monday morning. JPMorgan expects oil to trade in the low-to-mid $60 range for the remainder of 2025 assuming the Middle East risk premium fully dissipates. Year-to-date, Brent and WTI are both down over 5%. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
This oil gauge signals how nervous investors are about Trump's warning to Iran
U.S. and global benchmark oil prices have seen their share of big moves since Israel launched attacks on Iran late last week, but there's one indicator that helps put into perspective just how worried investors have become about the potential scope of the conflict. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called for Iran's 'unconditional surrender' as the Israel-Iran conflict deepened. He also urged residents to evacuate Tehran, a city of nearly 10 million, raising questions about if the U.S. might take steps to deepen its involvement in the conflict. Israel-Iran clash delivers a fresh shock to investors. History suggests this is the move to make. 'I prepaid our mom's rent for a year': My sister is a millionaire and never helps our mother. How do I cut her out of her will? 'I'm at my wit's end': My niece paid off her husband's credit card, but fell behind on her taxes. How can I help her? I'm 75 and have a reverse mortgage. Should I pay it off with my $200K savings — and live off Social Security instead? 20 companies in the S&P 500 whose investors have gained the greatest rewards from stock buybacks The CBOE Crude-Oil ETF Volatility Index XX:OVX marked its highest close in over three years, which tells you 'the market is pricing in a wide range of tail risks,' Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth in New York, told MarketWatch. 'It's a clear sign that traders are increasingly uneasy about how this might evolve — not just short-term supply disruptions, but broader regional instability.' The index climbed sharply Tuesday, up 26% to close at $71.56 to notch its highest close since March 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The index, described as an estimate of the expected 30-day volatility of crude oil as priced by the United States Oil Fund USO, climbed by 104% over the past five trading days. The index has seen spikes following key events, but not quite as much as this one. In the aftermath of the Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, for example, it rose 11.7% to close at $39.85 the following Monday, the highest finish since June of that year. A day after Trump's 'liberation day' April 2 tariff announcements, the index rose 18% to close at $35.45. The situation with Israel and Iran is 'quite different this time,' said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social-media post that 'we now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,' which Razaqzada said suggests that the U.S. is 'entering the fray.' Israel first launched an attack on Iran late last week, as concerns over Tehran's nuclear program worsened, and Iran has retaliated by targeting Israel with long-range missiles. Against that backdrop, oil prices rallied Friday, fell Monday, and climbed sharply again on Tuesday. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery CLN25 CL.1 tacked on $3.07, or 4.3%, to settle at $74.84 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange — the highest front-month contract finish since January of this year. August Brent BRN00 BRNQ25, the global benchmark, added $3.22, or 4.4%, to end at $76.45 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, the highest finish since February. The key factor driving the market volatility is the potential impact on global supplies, said Matt Polyak, managing partner at Hummingbird Capital, as Iran exports around 1.5 million barrels per day of oil. In 2024, an average of 20 million barrels of oil per day, or about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil chokepoint located between Oman and Iran, according to the Energy Information Administration. Read: Israel-Iran conflict raises alarm over Strait of Hormuz. What it means for oil prices and inflation. From a market positioning perspective, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Nymex crude oil managed money net positioning is in line with the last three-year average and below the five-year average, suggesting there's still room for increased long positions, said Hummingbird's Polyak. Meanwhile, Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service (a unit of Dow Jones, the publisher of MarketWatch), pointed out that open interest for the WTI contracts is in 'free fall, so shorts are definitely getting covered.' Shorts are those that bet on a fall in the price of oil, and 'getting covered' refers to an investor buying back that oil they previously sold short. Open interest for the front-month WTI oil futures contract, for example, was around 81,660 in Tuesday dealings, down from 144,493 on Friday, FactSet data show. As for how high oil prices can go from here, CIBC's Babin said that if the situation remains limited to Iran-Israel tensions, 'some of the move may already be priced in — especially since spare capacity from Saudi [Arabia] and the UAE provides some buffer.' However, 'if there are signs this is escalating into a regional conflict with direct hits on infrastructure, there is meaningful upside risk still to come' for oil, she said. Israel-Iran conflict poses three challenges for stocks that could slam market by up to 20%, warns RBC These defense stocks offer the best growth prospects, as the Israel-Iran conflict fuels new interest in the sector 'I'm 68 and my 401(k) has dwindled to $82,000': My husband committed financial infidelity and has $50,000 in credit-card debt. What now? My mother-in-law, 95, has $400K in stocks. Would it be smarter taxwise to gift it to her kids — or leave it to them in her will? 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Journals
24-04-2025
- Business
- Business Journals
Heather Errigo, CFA, CFP®
Heather is a senior relationship manager at CIBC Private Wealth with over 25 years of industry experience. In this role, she provides comprehensive wealth management solutions for clients that include high net worth individuals, families, trusts, associations, endowments and foundations. Heather earned a bachelor's degree in international business and Latin American studies with a minor in Spanish and economics. She is registered as an investment adviser representative.
