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Yahoo
29-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices must be 'meaningfully higher' for more US production
Oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) are in focus as investors weigh the Middle East conflict's impact on the energy market. CIBC Private Wealth senior energy trader Rebecca Babin joins Market Domination to take a closer look and discuss the dynamics impacting the oil market. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. President Trump, right? He's posting on social media. He's posting Drill, baby, drill. It is a Trump mantra. It's a Republican mantra. You saw that, Rebecca. Do we actually see, in your opinion, a meaningful pickup in US production? I do not think you see a meaningful pickup in US production unless crude prices are meaningfully higher than they are right now. So let's call this strip right now at 65. And it's slightly lower further out. I do not think US producers are going to see this price action and say, "You know what, this is a great time for me to be putting money into my CAPEX and getting more crude out of the ground." Why? OPEC Plus is bringing back more barrels into the market and likely going to pressure prices. So I might be putting my investment into a market where other other sources of supply are also coming onto the market. They're also going to look at the recent volatility and say, "Okay, this is a different picture than I'm I'm comfortable with in terms of the amount of volatility in the price action. Maybe I actually step back and wait and see how things play out before I go put my dollars in and try to and try to produce more crude." So I don't think that that's going to be the initial reaction from US producers. They will respond to higher prices and price stability. And if we get those two things, um, they will absolutely start spending money and bringing out more barrels. I just don't think that that is the environment we're in, and I don't see that in the near term, and all of the data supports that if you look at rig counts. Rig counts have been falling precipitously over the past three months. This isn't an environment where they want to ratchet up the risk. If anything, they want to shore up their balance sheets and make sure they can survive this cycle and come out really strong the other side. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices sink 6% as Trump touts Israel-Iran ceasefire deal, supply worries ease
Oil futures tumbled on Tuesday after President Trump touted a US brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, and signaled easing of sanctions against Tehran. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell over 6% to trade nearat $64.37 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also tumbled to hover above $67.14 per barrel. Crude futures took a leg lower after Trump wrote on social media : "China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!' The comment was seen as a reversal of his stance in May when the President threatened 'secondary sanctions' against importers of Iranian oil. Earlier on Tuesday Trump attempted to keep both countries in line with a timeline on a ceasefire agreement he announced on Monday evening. "ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly 'Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!" wrote Trump. Oil settled 7% lower on Monday after Iran launched missile attacks on a US air base in Qatar, retaliating against Washington's strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Prices further weakened after Trump hinted Iran's retaliation had been telegraphed, thanking Tehran for "giving us early notice." "Iran's response appears to have been more symbolic than escalatory — targeting US military bases but avoiding any loss of life or damage to energy structure," Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Monday afternoon. Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios in the wake of the initial US strikes, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil flows. JPMorgan analysts projected the closure would be a "severe outcome" scenario, in which oil futures could spike to $120 to $130. "Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," Natasha Kaneva wrote on Monday morning. JPMorgan expects oil to trade in the low-to-mid-$60 range for the remainder of 2025, assuming the Middle East risk premium fully dissipates. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices sink 6% as Trump touts Israel-Iran peace deal, supply worries ease
Oil futures tumbled on Tuesday after President Trump touted a US brokered peace agreement between Israel and Iran, and signaled easing of sanctions against Tehran. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell over 6% to trade nearat $64.37 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also tumbled to hover above $67.14 per barrel. Crude futures took a leg lower after Trump wrote on social media : "China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!' Earlier on Tuesday the President attempted to keep both countries in line with a timeline on the peace agreement he announced on Monday evening. "ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly 'Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!" wrote Trump. Oil settled 7% lower on Monday after Iran launched missile attacks on a US air base in Qatar, retaliating against Washington's strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Prices further weakened after Trump hinted Iran's retaliation had been telegraphed, thanking Tehran for "giving us early notice." "Iran's response appears to have been more symbolic than escalatory — targeting US military bases but avoiding any loss of life or damage to energy structure," Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Monday afternoon. Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios in the wake of the initial US strikes, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil flows. JPMorgan analysts projected the closure would be a "severe outcome" scenario, in which oil futures could spike to $120 to $130. "Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," Natasha Kaneva wrote on Monday morning. JPMorgan expects oil to trade in the low-to-mid-$60 range for the remainder of 2025, assuming the Middle East risk premium fully dissipates. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices sink as Trump seeks to maintain fragile ceasefire between Israel, Iran
Oil futures slumped on Tuesday after President Trump furiously sought to maintain an increasingly fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell over 4% to trade under $66 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also tumbled to hover above $68 per barrel. "ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly 'Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!" Trump wrote on social media Tuesday morning. Earlier on Tuesday morning, Trump urged Israel to stop its strikes on Iran after Tel Aviv accused Tehran of breaching the truce that had gone into effect just hours earlier. "ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!" Trump wrote. Israel confirmed that it had agreed to a truce after Trump announced the ceasefire and its timeline in a late-Monday post to social media. The president then announced overnight that the pause in the conflict had begun. Oil settled 7% lower on Monday after Iran launched missile attacks on a US air base in Qatar, retaliating against Washington's strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Prices further weakened after Trump hinted Iran's retaliation had been telegraphed, thanking Tehran for "giving us early notice." 'Iran's response appears to have been more symbolic than escalatory — targeting US military bases but avoiding any loss of life or damage to energy structure,' Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Monday afternoon. Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios in the wake of the initial US strikes, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil flows. JPMorgan analysts projected the closure would be a "severe outcome" scenario, in which oil futures could spike to $120 to $130. "Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," Natasha Kaneva wrote on Monday morning. JPMorgan expects oil to trade in the low-to-mid-$60 range for the remainder of 2025, assuming the Middle East risk premium fully dissipates. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices sink after Israel accuses Iran of breaking truce announced by Trump
Oil futures slumped on Tuesday after President Trump said a ceasefire between Israel and Iran is now in place, lifting hopes for a more permanent end to the Middle East hostilities. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) fell over 3% to trade at around $66 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also tumbled to hover near $68 per barrel. Israel confirmed that it had agreed to a truce, after Trump announced the ceasefire and its timeline in a late-Monday post to social media. The president then announced overnight that the pause in the conflict had begun. 'THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!' Trump wrote on social media early on Tuesday. But just hours later, Israel accused Iran of breaching the truce, after it detected missile launches. Tehran has yet to publicly confirm that it has agreed to the ceasefire. Oil settled 7% lower on Monday after Iran launched missile attacks on a US air base in Qatar, retaliating against Washington's strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Prices further weakened after Trump hinted Iran's retaliation had been telegraphed. 'I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured,' Trump wrote on social media. 'Iran's response appears to have been more symbolic than escalatory — targeting US military bases but avoiding any loss of life or damage to energy structure,' Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Monday afternoon. Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios in the wake of the initial US strikes, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil flows. JPMorgan analysts projected the closure would be a "severe outcome" scenario, in which oil futures could spike to $120 to $130. "Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," wrote Natasha Kaneva on Monday morning. JPMorgan expects oil to trade in the low-to-mid-$60 range for the remainder of 2025, assuming the Middle East risk premium fully dissipates. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Sign in to access your portfolio
