Latest news with #CNBCMarketStrategistSurvey
CNBC
3 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
JPMorgan raises its year-end S&P 500 target, but sees little upside left
Strong earnings and a resilient economy amid extreme policy uncertainty this year have uplifted JPMorgan's view on U.S. equities. Head of global markets strategy Dubravko Lakos-Bujas raised his year-end S & P 500 price target to 6,000 from 5,200. The strategist cited an "encouraging fundamental backdrop" that alleviated investors' concerns about tariffs' impact on corporate growth. He added that results such as Nvidia's confirmed that the AI theme and capital spending boom remains strong. "Absent major policy surprises, the path of least resistance is to new highs supported by Tech / AI led strong fundamentals, a steady bid from systematic strategies on improving volatility and momentum signals, and flows from active investors on dips," Lakos-Bujas wrote in a note to clients. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 performance over the past year. Lakos-Bujas sees double-digit S & P 500 earnings expectations for 2026 lifting stocks in the second half of this year. He also highlighted the U.S. Court of International Trade's recent ruling against the Trump administration's tariffs as a potential tailwind for equities. "Going into 2H25, investors should begin to anchor equities to 2026 EPS growth potential ... which is significantly higher and should help support the relative valuation case for U.S. equities," Lakos-Bujas wrote. To be sure, Lakos-Bujas' target implies just 1% upside from Thursday's close of 5,939.30. "Elevated valuation could limit market upside, but it is rarely a sell catalyst on its own, especially if the U.S. continues to deliver stronger growth relative to DM peers and the AI story remains intact," the strategist said. Lakos-Bujas had slashed his original year-end target from 6,500 to 5,200 as investors navigated the throes of the April tariff scare. The S & P 500 at one point traded around 20% below its record high set in February. However, pauses to the steep duties announced by President Donald Trump helped the market recover. The benchmark sits around 3% below its all-time high. Three other strategists featured in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey also raised their forecasts this week: RBC's Lori Calvasina : to 5,730 from 5,550 Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha : to 6,550 from 6,150 Barclays' Venu Krishna : to 6,050 from 5,900
CNBC
5 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
A third major Wall Street strategist just raised his S&P 500 forecast this week
Two's a coincidence. Three could be a pattern. Barclays strategist Venu Krishna lifted his year-end S & P 500 target nearly 3%, to 6,050 from 5,900. That forecast implies a more than 1% advance from Tuesday's close. But perhaps more importantly, the change makes Krishna the third sell-side strategist to increase his 2025 S & P 500 estimate in the past week. RBC's Lori Calvasina changed her target to 5,730 from 5,550 , while Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank increased his forecast to 6,550 from 6,150 . Many strategists on the Street lowered their year-end targets after President Donald Trump on April 2 unveiled sharply higher tariffs on all imports into the United States. The policy sent U.S. stocks tumbling, briefly driving down the S & P 500 by about 20% from its Feb. 19 record high. The administration has since paused many of the proposed tariffs, helping stocks recover, although a 50% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum went into effect early Wednesday. Through Tuesday's close, the S & P 500 is less than 3% below its all-time high. .SPX 3M bar SPX 3-month chart "Peak trade policy uncertainty likely passed," Krishna wrote. This "should allow modest valuation expansion from here." "We also expect focus to gradually shift toward (potentially) more accommodative taxes and regulation," he added. To be sure, Krishna's new target is well below his initial 2025 forecast at the start of the year, which foresaw the S & P 500 rising to 6,600. Calvasina's and Chadha's estimates are also below where they had begun 2025. (Full table with initial and latest estimates available on the CNBC Market Strategist Survey .) "Some tariff headwinds likely remain, rates are still elevated amid concerns around the U.S. fiscal outlook and a potential consumer pullback remains a risk, which keeps our valuation assumptions in check," Krishna said. Indeed, trade tensions between China and the U.S. remain elevated. Trump lamented Wednesday that negotiation with Chinese President Xi Jinping is " extremely hard ." But if Krishna is correct and peak trade uncertainty has passed, then other strategists may start hiking their targets for the stock market as well. Elsewhere Wednesday morning on Wall Street, Apple got a rare downgrade, with Needham lowering its rating on the iPhone maker to hold from buy. "We move to the sidelines for AAPL owing to its expensive relative valuation, increasing fundamental growth headwinds, and rising competitive threats," the firm wrote .
CNBC
13-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Goldman changes tack again, raises 2025 S&P 500 target to account for easier tariffs
It's getting tough for even the most veteran Wall Street strategists to keep up with the changing trade landscape. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin hiked his 2025 S & P 500 target back to 6,100 from 5,900. The revised target implies upside of 4% from Monday's close. "We raise our S & P 500 return and earnings forecasts to incorporate lower tariff rates, better economic growth, and less recession risk than we previously expected," the Wall Street investment bank's chief U.S. equity strategist said in a note to clients. The revised outlook comes after the U.S. and China agreed to lower tariffs for 90 days as the two nations try to hammer out a broader trade deal. That sent stocks ripping higher on Monday. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite surged 3.3% and 4.4%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared more than 1,100, or 2.8%. "However, already-optimistic market pricing of the economic growth outlook as well as uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of impending slowdown in economic and earnings growth will likely keep a ceiling on equity multiples during the next few months," Kostin added. .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date Kostin has changed his S & P 500 target multiple times already this year. The strategist began the year calling for the benchmark to end 2025 at 6,500. In early March, he cut his forecast to 6,200 — making Goldman the first of the major Wall Street shops to trim its year-end outlook. Later that month, he slashed his target again to 5,700 — the lowest at the time among those included in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey . Kostin later quietly increased his target to 5,900. His current forecast of 6,100 puts him fifth highest in the CNBC survey. "We continue to recommend investors focus on stocks with high pricing power that can maintain margins in the face of elevated input costs," he said. "Despite the recent improvement in the growth outlook, tariff rates will likely be substantially higher in 2025 than they were in 2024, putting pressure on profit margins." Elsewhere Tuesday morning on Wall Street, Baird upgraded Caterpillar to buy , citing easing trade pressures. "The easing of tariff impacts adds weight to 2025 as a trough EPS year and is likely to drive additional multiple expansion (particularly as EBIT margin has proven more resilient vs. Machinery peers), which should allow the stock to catch up with the S & P 500 after underperforming by ~15% over the past year," analyst Mircea Dobre wrote Tuesday.
