A third major Wall Street strategist just raised his S&P 500 forecast this week

CNBC

5 days ago

Two's a coincidence. Three could be a pattern. Barclays strategist Venu Krishna lifted his year-end S & P 500 target nearly 3%, to 6,050 from 5,900. That forecast implies a more than 1% advance from Tuesday's close. But perhaps more importantly, the change makes Krishna the third sell-side strategist to increase his 2025 S & P 500 estimate in the past week. RBC's Lori Calvasina changed her target to 5,730 from 5,550 , while Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank increased his forecast to 6,550 from 6,150 . Many strategists on the Street lowered their year-end targets after President Donald Trump on April 2 unveiled sharply higher tariffs on all imports into the United States. The policy sent U.S. stocks tumbling, briefly driving down the S & P 500 by about 20% from its Feb. 19 record high. The administration has since paused many of the proposed tariffs, helping stocks recover, although a 50% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum went into effect early Wednesday. Through Tuesday's close, the S & P 500 is less than 3% below its all-time high. .SPX 3M bar SPX 3-month chart "Peak trade policy uncertainty likely passed," Krishna wrote. This "should allow modest valuation expansion from here." "We also expect focus to gradually shift toward (potentially) more accommodative taxes and regulation," he added. To be sure, Krishna's new target is well below his initial 2025 forecast at the start of the year, which foresaw the S & P 500 rising to 6,600. Calvasina's and Chadha's estimates are also below where they had begun 2025. (Full table with initial and latest estimates available on the CNBC Market Strategist Survey .) "Some tariff headwinds likely remain, rates are still elevated amid concerns around the U.S. fiscal outlook and a potential consumer pullback remains a risk, which keeps our valuation assumptions in check," Krishna said. Indeed, trade tensions between China and the U.S. remain elevated. Trump lamented Wednesday that negotiation with Chinese President Xi Jinping is " extremely hard ." But if Krishna is correct and peak trade uncertainty has passed, then other strategists may start hiking their targets for the stock market as well. Elsewhere Wednesday morning on Wall Street, Apple got a rare downgrade, with Needham lowering its rating on the iPhone maker to hold from buy. "We move to the sidelines for AAPL owing to its expensive relative valuation, increasing fundamental growth headwinds, and rising competitive threats," the firm wrote .