Latest news with #RBC
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Some Gains for the Aussie Dollar After the RBA Unexpectedly Holds
The Australian dollar was quite active in the week ending 11 July, as the Reserve Bank of Australia ('the RBA') met on Tuesday, 8 July, and went against expectations by leaving rates unchanged. This article looks at the context of the RBA's decision and then briefly analyses the charts of AUDUSD and AUDJPY. Despite the wide consensus that the RBA would cut its cash rate to 3.6% on 8 July, the bank kept it at 3.85% with six votes in favour and three dissenting. The RBC pointed to a lack of evidence that inflation has returned to target sustainably: Australian annual headline inflation in the first quarter stayed at 2.4% while expectations had suggested a slight decline to 2.3%. As in various other countries around the world, a significant part of the upward pressure on inflation came from electricity. While there has been significant progress in reducing inflation and 2.4% is the lowest since the first quarter of 2021, it's still fairly far from being 2% consistently, so the RBA's caution seems justified and in line with recent comments from most other major central banks. The RBA also cited a strong job market as a reason not to cut rates at its last meeting: While there doesn't seem to be any directional trend for the rate of unemployment, having been static since the beginning of the year at 4.1%, this is a historically low figure. Pre-Covid, unemployment in Australia was holding at or above 5%. The current figure is less than 1% higher than the record low of 3.4% from October 2022. The RBA is likely to be looking for a sustained rise in the rate of unemployment or other clear signs of a weakening job market to have more confidence to cut rates further. Australia's economy and currency are generally trade sensitive because the country's exports feature a large chunk of raw materials, so disruptions to trade can cause headwinds for the Aussie dollar. That hasn't happened very consistently in the latest round of news about tariffs. Even though there's only one confirmed trade deal, markets are generally discounting the most negative scenarios. Donald Trump's notoriously poor policy discipline now has a new name, 'TACO', short for 'Trump always chickens out'. However, if Mr Trump, for some reason, doesn't chicken out early next month, there might be a significant hit to the Aussie dollar. 8 July's surprising hold by the RBA helped the Aussie dollar to recover lost ground against its American counterpart and push up to a new high. Sentiment seems to be mostly discounting the American governments announcements about upcoming tariffs while underlying data from Australia are somewhat positive or at least certainly not as negative as had been expected around the beginning of the year. The 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement around 65.5c still seems to be a main technical reference because the price hasn't decisively broken beyond this area yet. With extremely low volume compared to peaks in early April, ATR reaching new lows, the slow stochastic close to overbought and momentum from the chart seemingly lower, there's a real possibility that the trend might change and the price try to push lower. The value area between the 20 and 50 SMA, around 65c, and particularly the 50 SMA itself, looks like possibly important support in the short term. If the uptrend continues, the next strong resistance isn't obvious. 67c is the area of the 200 SMA on the weekly chart but that's still quite a long way off. Equally, the price might consolidate in the runup to American inflation on Tuesday 15 July. The yen has declined in most of its widely traded pairs in recent days as trade tension between the USA and Japan escalated again. JPY's appeal as a haven appears to be lower compared to the situation early last quarter. Meanwhile, the RBA unexpectedly held its cash rate on 8 July. Although the BoJ is fairly likely to hike to 0.75% at the end of July, it seems unlikely the differential in rates for AUDJPY will go below 2% for the foreseeable future. Much like AUDUSD, volume and ATR have declined significantly here and the stochastic signals overbought, but the shape of the chart is quite different and the latest high was accompanied by a significant uptick in momentum. The 50% weekly Fibonacci retracement around ¥97.70 is an obvious possible resistance. A sustained move lower seems less favourable based on the current situation of both fundamentals and the chart. The 38.2% Fibo slightly below ¥95 might now flip to being an area of support. However, there's a significant amount of important data for AUDJPY coming out in the next few days: Australian consumer confidence on 15 July, then Japanese balance of trade and inflation on 17 and 18 July, respectively. Surprising results might significantly change the technical picture. The opinions here are personal to the writer; they do not represent the opinions of Exness or FX Empire. This is not a recommendation to trade. This article was submitted by Michael Stark, an analyst at Exness. This article was originally posted on FX Empire Identify Superstar Stocks Like DoorDash Before the Crowd Spot Outliers Like Hyperscaler Microsoft Early Identify Superstar Stocks Like American Superconductor Early Outliers Like Intuit Can Be Found Early Vistra's Nuclear AI Option, Renewables Draw Inflows Why Nextracker Could Be the Next Big Money Outlier
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Business Standard
7 hours ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Russia to bring in 1 million skilled Indian workers to fill labour gap
Russia will import up to 1 million workforce by the end of this year to address labour shortage in the country's highly industrialised areas, a business leader said. "As far as I know, by the end of the year, 1 million specialists from India will come to Russia, including the Sverdlovsk region. A new Consulate General is opening in Yekaterinburg, which will deal with these issues," Andrey Besedin, the head of the Ural Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told the RosBusinessConsulting (RBC) news agency. Besedin said the migration of Indians would fill the shortage of a highly qualified workforce in the Sverdlovsk region. Sverdlovsk, with the capital Yekaterinburg, is situated in the Ural mountains and is home to Russian heavy industry and military-industrial complex, including world-famous Uralmash and T-90 series tank maker Ural Wagon Zavod. Besedin stressed that industrial enterprises needed to increase production volumes, but the region faced a shortage of skilled workers. Some workers are deployed in the military operation in Ukraine, and young people do not go to factories, Besedin said. He said Russia was also considering inviting labourers from Sri Lanka and North Korea, but it was a rather complex issue. Migrant workers from India began to arrive at enterprises in Russian regions in 2024. They were in particular invited by the Kaliningrad fish processing complex "Za Rodinu" against the backdrop of a labour shortage. According to the RBC news agency, the Russian Ministry of Labour predicted a workforce shortage of 3.1 million people by 2030. It proposed an increase in the quota for inviting qualified foreign workers in 2025 by 1.5 times to 0.23 million people. According to the ministry's estimate, Russian industrial enterprises attracted 47 thousand qualified migrants from non-CIS countries in 2024. The Ministry of Economic Development also called for expanding the geography of attracting workers from other countries. However, Russian authorities tightened migration legislation to curb the influx of migrants from the former Soviet republics after the terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow on March 22 last year.
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock market's roaring rally to record highs could hit pause
A number of Wall Street firms are raising their S&P 500 (^GSPC) targets as initial investor panic from President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs continues to subside — but that doesn't mean strategists are expecting a solid run higher for stocks in the second half of the year. In a note to clients on Sunday, RBC Capital Markets boosted its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,250 from a prior target of 5,730. But the firm's head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, explained that the adjustment comes amid the market's more than 25% bounce back from April lows, reached when Trump announced a wide array of higher-than-expected tariffs on goods from various countries. Those tariffs were delayed, and the US is now in the process of negotiating them. RBC is now essentially moving its target back to where it sat in mid-March before the bulk of the tariff turmoil began. In fact, a target of 6,250 means the benchmark index would end the year mostly flat from its closing price last week, when it notched a fresh record. "We feel neutral on the outlook for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025, and are mindful that our new price target is essentially in line with recent levels," Calvasina wrote. "We expect choppy conditions in the back half of the year, and swings in both directions." Calvasina noted that, among other risks, it's likely still "too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts" on corporate earnings. Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances Overall, eight strategists among the 14 tracked by Yahoo Finance currently project the S&P 500 to close either nearly flat from current levels or lower. Even those who predict an increase aren't pounding the table for the rally to continue in the short term. Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni, who maintains a 6,500 year-end target for the S&P 500, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday that the recent V-shaped recovery for stocks could soon look more like a "square root shaped pattern," where the path higher stalls. Yardeni pointed out that his team had expected Trump to relent on his tariff back-and-forth by now. But that is not happening. New letters from Trump over the weekend threatened 30% duties on goods from Mexico and the European Union. The latest tariff actions follow a 35% tariff on Canadian goods announced last week. Yardeni believes his 6,500 target could still be reached by year end, but added, "Trump must get the tariff issue resolved in coming weeks." Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs Last week, Bank of America's equity strategy team led by Savita Subramanian also recently moved its year-end target, boosting its call to 6,300 from a prior forecast of 5,600. "It's hard to identify a positive catalyst for the S&P 500 to continue its meteoric run into Q3," Subramanian wrote. "Among our five target models, our earnings per share surprise framework represents our near-term read and is mixed, at best. Negative guidance and revisions in April/May have improved to average levels but economic surprises have broken down. And the meat of corporate profits, tech company earnings, are slated to decelerate." Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock market's roaring rally to record highs could hit pause
A number of Wall Street firms are raising their S&P 500 (^GSPC) targets as initial investor panic from President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs continues to subside — but that doesn't mean strategists are expecting a solid run higher for stocks in the second half of the year. In a note to clients on Sunday, RBC Capital Markets boosted its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,250 from a prior target of 5,730. But the firm's head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, explained that the adjustment comes amid the market's more than 25% bounce back from April lows, reached when Trump announced a wide array of higher-than-expected tariffs on goods from various countries. Those tariffs were delayed, and the US is now in the process of negotiating them. RBC is now essentially moving its target back to where it sat in mid-March before the bulk of the tariff turmoil began. In fact, a target of 6,250 means the benchmark index would end the year mostly flat from its closing price last week, when it notched a fresh record. "We feel neutral on the outlook for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025, and are mindful that our new price target is essentially in line with recent levels," Calvasina wrote. "We expect choppy conditions in the back half of the year, and swings in both directions." Calvasina noted that, among other risks, it's likely still "too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts" on corporate earnings. Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances Overall, eight strategists among the 14 tracked by Yahoo Finance currently project the S&P 500 to close either nearly flat from current levels or lower. Even those who predict an increase aren't pounding the table for the rally to continue in the short term. Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni, who maintains a 6,500 year-end target for the S&P 500, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday that the recent V-shaped recovery for stocks could soon look more like a "square root shaped pattern," where the path higher stalls. Yardeni pointed out that his team had expected Trump to relent on his tariff back-and-forth by now. But that is not happening. New letters from Trump over the weekend threatened 30% duties on goods from Mexico and the European Union. The latest tariff actions follow a 35% tariff on Canadian goods announced last week. Yardeni believes his 6,500 target could still be reached by year end, but added, "Trump must get the tariff issue resolved in coming weeks." Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs Last week, Bank of America's equity strategy team led by Savita Subramanian also recently moved its year-end target, boosting its call to 6,300 from a prior forecast of 5,600. "It's hard to identify a positive catalyst for the S&P 500 to continue its meteoric run into Q3," Subramanian wrote. "Among our five target models, our earnings per share surprise framework represents our near-term read and is mixed, at best. Negative guidance and revisions in April/May have improved to average levels but economic surprises have broken down. And the meat of corporate profits, tech company earnings, are slated to decelerate." Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
CNBC
9 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
RBC hikes year-end S&P 500 target as investors look to 2026 for gains
Another Wall Street firm has upped its S & P 500 year-end target — though not without concerns. RBC Capital Markets raised its 2025 S & P 500 target to 6,250 from 5,730. It's a roughly 9% hike that nevertheless is where the broader index was last hovering on Monday, suggesting the benchmark will continue to chop and churn in the second half with nowhere to go. "We feel neutral on the outlook for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025, and are mindful that our new price target is essentially in line with recent levels," Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC, wrote on Sunday. "As a reminder, we see our price target as a compass, not a GPS, and a signaling mechanism about the path that we believe the stock market is currently on," Calvasina said. "We expect choppy conditions in the back half of the year, and swings in both directions." .SPX 1D mountain S & P 500 The target change is the fourth one of the year for RBC, as major upheavals to trade policy and other updates out of Washington have strategists up and down Wall Street scrambling to keep up with the market outlook — even as the S & P 500 itself continues to climb to all-time highs. The latest update to 6,250 is essentially where the firm had its year-end target in mid-March, when it was at 6,200. It's higher than where it was in April, when RBC dropped its forecast to 5,550 after incorporating a severe stagflation scenario. However, the market outlook continues to remain uncertain, Calvasina wrote. The strategist expects a wide range of outcomes, citing bullish signals around sentiment that conflict with more pessimistic GDP forecasts. Key to the target change is how RBC is now thinking through the economic outlook, with GDP expected to grow by 1.1% to 2% in both 2025 and 2026. "Investors have been telling us that they are ready to start pricing in 2026," Calvasina wrote. "While it seems early to us to do so, we think it's important to be mindful of this shift in investor focus, and so we've added in a second GDP test that bakes in how stocks perform in years that precede real GDP in the 1.1-2% range." Calvasina also wrote that the firm has "removed any attempt to factor in the political backdrop to our 2025 target," saying attempts to do so no longer seem appropriate, especially as the S & P 500 trades out of step with the president's polling numbers. Still, the new price target is slightly below consensus at 6,280, according to CNBC's market strategist survey . The next highest target is from Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Savita Subramanian, who last week hiked her price objective to 6,300.
