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CNBC
28-04-2025
- Business
- CNBC
What Trump's poor stock market start means for the rest of 2025, according to history
The volatile start of President Donald Trump's second term has led to unusually negative returns for the stock market, and history suggests the rest of the year won't be much better. The S & P 500 declined 7.9% between Jan. 20 and April 25, leaving only two trading sessions left before Trump's first 100 days in office are over. Since 1945, the only first-100-day stretch that was worse for stocks was President Richard Nixon's in early 1973, according to CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. Overall, the average performance for the S & P 500 during the first key stretch of a presidency is a 2.1% gain, with gains recorded 70% of the time, Stovall said in a note to clients. History shows that a first 100 days this weak is a negative indicator for stocks the rest of the year. "A below-average first 100 days saw a full-year decline of 5.5%," the CFRA note said. .SPX mountain 2025-01-20 The stock market has been volatile and lost ground since the start of President Donald Trump's second-stint in office. The closest comparisons to this year paint an even more pessimistic picture. In 1973, the S & P 500 fell 9.9% during Nixon's first 100 days, 1.3% during his second 100 days and finished the year down 17.4%, according to CFRA. In 2001, the index fell 6.9% during President George W. Bush's first 100 days in office, then 5.3% in the second 100 before finishing the year with a 13% decline. To be sure, the stock market has started to turn around in late April, with the S & P 500 gaining 4.6% last week. And while the first 100 days has stood as an important political milestone since the New Deal days of FDR during the Great Depression, there's nothing particularly magical about that number for the stock market. The performance of equities for the rest of the year will depend in part on how the trade disputes that have dominated Trump's first 100 days play out. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC's "Squawk Box " on Monday morning that " it's up to China to de-escalate " in the tariff standoff between the two countries. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
CNBC
28-04-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Truist upgrades Peloton stock, says 'the BS' has been cleaned up
Peloton is finally showing signs of sustained growth after an extended recovery, according to Truist. "Three years+ after we downgraded PTON to Hold from Buy, we believe the stock is finally nearing a point where the company's improving fundamentals should support a gradual recovery of its equity," analyst Youssef Squali wrote in a Monday note. Truist upgraded the fitness equipment stock to buy from hold, and reiterated its $11 per share price target. The firm's forecast calls for nearly 75% upside from Friday's $6.29 close. In premarket trading Monday, shares were up more than 5%. PTON YTD mountain Peloton stock in 2025. The stock was one of the pandemic-era darlings as consumers rushed to purchase Peloton bikes amid lockdown orders. It spent heavily to support the rapid growth only to have demand dry up, forcing CEO changes and layoffs as well as efforts to stave off a cash crunch . The company has producing back-to-back better-than-expected quarterly results in October 2024 and February 2025 . Peloton's fiscal second-quarter results earlier this year saw the company inch closer to profitability, and the analyst expects to see revenue growth return in fiscal 2026. "We believe the stock is finally nearing a point where the company's improving fundamentals should support a gradual recovery of its equity," Squali said. "With the BS cleaned up and [operating expenses] materially reduced to ensure sustained [free cash flow] profitability, we believe the new leadership is refocusing on revenue growth (in FY26, by our est.)." Peloton stock has slipped about 28% in 2025. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
CNBC
28-04-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Bank of America upgrades this insurance stock after downgrading it earlier this month
Bank of America has quickly changed its mind on insurance stock Progressive . BofA upgraded Progressive back to buy on Monday, after downgrading the stock to neutral just three weeks ago, and raised its price target to $312 per share from $297. The firm's forecast calls for roughly 18% upside from Friday's $265.01 close. "This is a lot of 12mo upside for what has arguably been the S & P 100 stock with the best risk-adjusted returns over the prior decade," analyst Joshua Shanker said of the upgrade. PGR YTD mountain Progressive stock in 2025. The switch is "an uncommonly short time to reverse a recommendation change," he noted. Shanker attributed the reversal of opinion on Progressive stock to its sharp underperformance of the S & P 500 in the 15 trading sessions between the initial downgrade and upgrade today as well as earnings result that showed a burst in new personal auto customers. Progressive stock slipped 8% over the time period, Shanker noted, which equates to underperforming the S & P 500 by 1,000 basis points, a move that could be overdone. "Progressive is arguably the best operator within its niches of the insurance market with continued opportunity for market share gain and economies of scale growth," the analyst said. Shanker also pointed to Progressive's strong first-quarter results which he said saw the company notch its best March ever on a percentage basis. Progressive stock has ticked up about 10% so far in 2025 and was up 1.8% Monday morning in premarket trade. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
CNBC
28-04-2025
- Business
- CNBC
HSBC downgrades Eli Lilly over valuation worry and strong competition
LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly stock in 2025. Eli Lilly's high valuation make the stock vulnerable to a sharp decline amid broader macroeconomic concerns, according to HSBC. "We think that in the current economic environment, stocks with higher multiples are at greater risk of those multiples contracting," analyst Rajesh Kumar wrote in a Monday note. The stock currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 40 times, compared to roughly 20 times for the S & P 500. HSBC downgraded Eli Lilly stock to "reduce" from buy, and trimmed its price target to $700 per share from $1,150. HSBC's forecast calls for about 21% downside from Friday's $884.54 close. LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly stock in 2025. The analyst also noted that the broader market might have gotten too bullish on Eli Lilly stock, especially as investors have helped hype up GLP-1 drugs and the companies that produce them. Kumas said the expectations for the the company's weight-loss drug orforglipron may be overestimated, while competition will continue to remain stiff. "One needs to bear in mind that the highest dose adverse events profile in the type-2 diabetes treatment might suggest lower compliance than injectables," Kumar said. "With c8% discontinuation rates in the type-2 diabetes trial, these trends might require a closer look in the obesity read out to confirm the market's current bullish expectations." In terms of competition, the analyst pointed to Novo Nordisk, which also produces popular GLP-1 drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. "Ozempic/Wegovy brand recognition means the market might be underestimating how much of weaker scripts trend for Ozempic/Wegovy than Mounjaro/Zepbound might stem from cannibalisation from compounders," he said. "We think when the compounders are stopped in May for Novo's brands, the script momentum gap between the two players might close." Eli Lilly stock has gained nearly 15% in 2025. Shares were off 1.6% in premarket trading Monday. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
CNBC
28-04-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Buy Boeing stock as growth runway now looks achievable after several controversies, Bernstein says
Boeing could be on track to make good on past growth hopes as the company emerges stronger after heightened scrutiny, according to Bernstein. Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned upgraded the airplane design and manufacturing stock to outperform from market perform and upped his price target to $218 per share from $181 in a Sunday note. The forecast implies about 23% upside from Friday's $177.95 close. Shares rose 1.7% in premarket trading Monday. "Boeing is now making the progress it needed for the growth trajectory we expected before the Alaska door plug accident in January 2024," Harned said. While the analyst cautioned that Boeing remains far from being out of the woods from continued scrutiny over several of its controversies in recent years, he noted that the company is on track to emerge as a stronger firm overall. BA YTD mountain Bernstein stock in 2025. "While we cannot assume all risks are gone, after high FAA scrutiny, [Boeing] should be on a much firmer path than in 2023," Harned said. Boeing is recovering from the 2024 Alaska Airlines controversy, where the door of a 737 Max 9 airplane blew off mid flight . That followed two Boeing 737 Max plane crashes that were just five months apart in 2018 and early 2019. But once Boeing finds its footing and is able to navigate consistently both scrutiny and headwinds tied to supply chains, the stock could have a strong growth runway ahead, Harned said. "Boeing has historically been a stock that has traded on momentum. Once the trajectory solidifies, the stock can take off. If you wait, you can miss it," the analyst said. "This is what happened during 2023, when share prices doubled from 2022 levels to reach $260 at the end of 2023, just before the door plug accident." Boeing stock has ticked up about 0.5% in 2025. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
