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Arabian Post
4 days ago
- Business
- Arabian Post
India Must Ignore Trump's Trade Tariff Trap
By Nantoo Banerjee US President Donald Trump is becoming increasingly unpredictable, if not crazy, with his freakish combination of styles to deal with countries and issues – from trade to diplomacy. The 25 percent import tariff on India since last Friday may not considerably hurt India's export trade with the US, but it threatens to develop a crack, or maybe even distrust, in the well-developed India-US diplomatic relations over the past several years. And, that should be a bigger concern before the democratic institutions in both India and the US. Trump is most unlikely to remain as the effective US president after the November 2028 election though he is selling 'Trump 2028' caps suggesting there may be loopholes to the president's two-term limit. He seems to be hell-bent on creating enough confusion around the so-called US allies for the next president to repair them easily. India is not a trade surplus country. Its global merchandise trade deficit has been growing year after year. In 2024-25, the country's trade deficit jumped to $282.83 billion from $241 billion in the previous fiscal year. The Indian government does not seem to be quite concerned. The US too is a big trade deficit country. Last year, the US recorded a historic $1.2-trillion goods trade deficit. Ironically, behind the ballooning trade gap of both the US and India is China. India's goods trade surplus with the US may have doubled over the last decade, rising from $20 billion in 2015 to $40 billion in 2025, but its trade deficit with China has more than doubled during this period, reaching a record high of $99.2 billion in 2024-25. According to the UN COMTRADE database on international trade, China had slashed down imports from India to merely $18 billion, last year. India neither protested nor took action to drastically cut imports from China. If China's anti-India import policy does not hurt the sentiments of the import-insensitive Indian government, the dumping of a mere 25 percent import tariff on India by President Trump on certain select items such as textiles, telecom, gems and jewellery, oil and gas, and food and agriculture with effect from this month should not unduly concern India. Unfortunately, the Indian government and the local media have always been more focussed and sensitive on US policies than Chinese practices. While the US trade policy has always been linked with its foreign policy, India's trade policy seems to totally ignore China's highly aggressive foreign policy that seeks to surround India with its growing military presence all around the country. The so-called Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) continues to import more and more from China. India imports a very large range of low-cost products from China, including electronics, fashion apparel, toys, and industrial machinery despite concerns over their potential impact on India's domestic industries and employment. Massive imports from China are primarily responsible for growing unemployment in India. India has been a major importer of Chinese smartphones, laptops, televisions, and other low-cost electronic devices such as clothing and textiles including activewear, casual wear, and children's fashion, to meet the country's growing local demand. India's significant portion of toy imports come from China. The current size of India's toy market is worth over $1.2 billion. Chinese manufacturers offer a wide variety of affordable and innovative toys. India also imports a wide range of other low-cost products from China, including household goods, kitchenware, baby carriages, and consumer products. The influx of cheap Chinese imports is challenging India's domestic manufacturers, potentially impacting their competitiveness and production. Leave alone the domestic job loss. Trump's trade tantrums apart, India could import a lot more from the US, instead of China, especially in areas where the US has a competitive advantage. A shift in India's trade approach could be driven by factors such as diversification of supply chains, reducing dependence on China, and potentially leveraging the US's technological and manufacturing prowess. The country's reliance on China, particularly in areas like electronics and pharmaceuticals, creates strategic vulnerabilities. India should import more from the US where it has an intrinsic strength that could help India reduce its dependence on China and build more resilient supply chains. The US continues to be a major global exporter of goods across various sectors, including machinery, electronics, and pharmaceuticals. In fact, India could utilise the services of many top US companies which are present in India and doing very good business in the country as well as exporting their wares to influence US trade and business decisions. A number of prominent US multinational companies have significant manufacturing operations in India. They include Ford (exporting engines from its Chennai plant, and making software development), General Electric (GE), Honeywell, Apple, Cisco, Cognizant and Cummins to mention a few. These US giants have chosen India for its skilled workforce and growing market. GE has a long-standing relationship with India. It manufactures various products and technologies across different sectors. Honeywell has a strong manufacturing footprint in India, focusing on aerospace, building technologies, and performance materials. Cummins, a global power technology leader, manufactures engines and related components in India. Apple Inc. has so far ignored the Trump threat to expand India operations and export back to the US. The 3M, a diversified science company, has invested in manufacturing in India to serve both the domestic and export markets. The Boeing company has been expanding its manufacturing activities, leveraging the country's growing aerospace industry. Boeing is using India's capability to outsource products and services with a network of some 300 Indian suppliers. The business is worth $1.25 billion annually. Boeing's engineering and technology centre in Bengaluru is one of its largest outside the US. Apple has also ramped up its manufacturing in India, partnering with such global leaders such as Wistron and Foxconn to produce iPhones. The US e-commerce giant Amazon has invested big in India, creating its own infrastructure and supply chain to support the growing online marketplace. Cisco, a global US leader in networking and cybersecurity, has a strong presence in the country, which covers manufacturing and research and development among others. Whimsical Trump's bid to strongly disturb the matured India-US economic and diplomatic relations may have something to do with his age. President Trump will reach 80 in next June. This may somewhat explain his growing capricious nature in dealing with the complex international issues and markedly strange utterances and suggestions slamming India and Russia as 'dead economies' after tariff stand-off and the US drilling oil in Pakistan which is 85 percent import dependent to meet its energy needs. Having road-tested a hardball tactic in his first term (January 20, 2017 to January 20, 2021), President Trump seems to have taken it to new levels. Earlier this year, a global survey found that India was the most upbeat of any nation about what a second Donald Trump presidency would mean for the country. The survey panel must be having second thoughts now. For India, it must strongly avoid falling into a Trump trap and continue to play cool. (IPA Service)
Time of India
11-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
China the big winner as Trump slaps massive copper tariffs to crush Canada
President Donald Trump 's plan to impose a sweeping 50 percent tariff on all copper imports to the United States is sending shockwaves through North American supply chains. But while the goal is to strengthen American industry, experts warn the policy could cripple Canada's copper exports and hand China a strategic trade advantage. China exported over $866 million worth of copper to the United States in 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database. Now, with Canadian and Chilean copper suddenly more expensive under the tariff, US manufacturers may be forced to turn to China's cheaper, state-backed metal, despite ongoing tensions between Washington and Beijing. Why will Canada be affected? by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Beachfront Living in Mumbai at Sunteck Beach Residences Sunteck Realty Learn More Undo The hardest blow will land north of the border. Canada is America's second-largest source of imported copper, and Quebec accounts for the lion's share of those shipments. 'Regionally, Quebec remains in the crosshairs,' said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at the Bank of Montreal. 'That would leave combined metal exports exposed to high tariffs north of 3 percent of GDP, or twice the next closest province.' Live Events Quebec's economy is deeply tied to copper, with Canada's only smelter in Rouyn-Noranda and a major refinery in Montreal. Thousands of workers are directly and indirectly linked to the copper trade. Now, many of those jobs could be at risk. A strategic win for Beijing Copper is essential to modern industry, from electric vehicles to infrastructure to defense equipment. Raising prices on imports doesn't eliminate demand, it reroutes it. And right now, the cheapest and most accessible copper may be coming from China. That means US manufacturers could become more dependent on Chinese suppliers, even as the administration frames the tariff as a national security measure. Already the world's largest copper refiner, China is aggressively securing global copper supplies, from Africa to Latin America. This tariff could accelerate that dominance by pricing out allies like Canada and giving Chinese producers a bigger share of the US market. Trump's strategy may backfire at home. Copper is widely used in construction, electrical wiring, vehicles, and appliances. A sudden increase in copper prices, already rising since the announcement, will impact not only Canadian exporters but also American manufacturers. Quebec Premier François Legault has not ruled out provincial support for the industry and is urging the federal government to respond. The federal government has not yet commented on possible countermeasures.
India Today
16-05-2025
- Business
- India Today
Trump said US trade was incentive for ceasefire. But is it that important to India or Pak?
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that he brokered the ceasefire in the recent India-Pakistan conflict, stating he used trade as either a threat or a sweetener for the deal, depending on which day he made the statement.'I said [to the Indian and Pakistani leadership], let's stop it. If you stop it, we're doing trade. If you don't stop it, we're not going to do any trade,' Trump told reporters at the White House on May 12. Since then, he has repeated variations of this statement to highlight how trade was both carrot and would trade have been an important incentive for India or Pakistan? Also, can the US afford to stop trade with either country? Here's a look at what the numbers say:Rising trade with IndiaBilateral trade between India and the US has increased steadily in the last two decades, but mostly over the past 10 years. In 2016, the total trade between both countries was worth $69 billion, which increased to about $130 billion in 2024, with the share of US trade in India's total trade hovering around eight per the past two decades, Indian imports from the US have risen steadily. In 2005, India imported goods and services worth $8.2 billion from the US. This increased fivefold to about $42 billion in 2024, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).advertisementIndia's exports to the US have also seen a substantial rise during this period. In 2005, India exported goods worth $16.5 billion to the US, which rose to around $87 billion last year, up 4.5 per cent ($3.7 billion) from 2023, according to India's Ministry of Commerce and year, the US was India's biggest export market, making up about 18 per cent of India's $434 billion exports. The US is also India's fourth-largest importer — almost six per cent of India's $698 billion imports, according to the United Nations COMTRADE 2024, the top goods imported from the US by India were oil and gas, manufactured goods, coal and petroleum gases, aerospace products and parts, and basic chemicals. Aerospace products have seen a significant increase because of India's expanding aviation sector. India's main exports to the US include pharmaceuticals and medicines, manufactured goods, IT equipment, apparel and textile furnishings, and gems and jewellery. Pharmaceuticals have consistently been a major export category, with significant growth over the these make India a significant trading partner for the US. India was among the top 10 markets for the US last year, accounting for about 2.4 per cent of total US trade flow. India also accounted for about 2.7 per cent of total US imports and around two per cent of how Trump's tariff threats have strained US trade relations with some of its top trading partners, such as China and Canada, over the past few months, the US may be wary of cutting off trade with trade tiesThe United States and Pakistan have a more varied trade pattern. In 2016, US-Pakistan trade amounted to a little under $6 billion, rising to almost $10 billion in 2022, but falling to an estimated $7.3 billion in this period, the US share in Pakistan's total trade flows ranged between seven and nine per cent. Conversely, Pakistan's share in total US trade has hovered around 0.1 per cent. The US goods trade deficit with Pakistan was $3 billion in 2024, a 5.2 per cent increase ($147.9 million) over 2023, according to the Office of the United States Trade the past two decades, Pakistan has marginally improved its trade relations with the US. In 2005, Pakistan's imports from the US amounted to $1.2 billion, peaked at almost $3 billion in 2018 and fell to about $2 billion last year. However, the share of US imports has remained relatively small, making up only about three per cent of Pakistan's total the other hand, Pakistan's exports to the US have shown an upward trend over the same time. In 2005, Pakistan exported $3.3 billion worth of goods to the US. This increased to over $5 billion in 2024, accounting for 17 per cent of total exports, making the US Pakistan's top export top exports to the US are primarily concentrated in the textile and apparel sector. This includes house linens, cotton textiles, and knitwear. Its main imports from the US include raw cotton, a crucial input to Pakistan's textile industry, machinery, scrap iron, and agricultural products like InTrending Reel
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Business Standard
01-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Kids may get 2 dolls in US, but China will suffer from trade war: Trump
Donald Trump, through his remarks, has tried to reassure Americans that the tariffs will not result in a recession Swati Gandhi New Delhi US President Donald Trump on Wednesday (local time) said that China would continue to suffer from his trade war, even if it means that American kids may get only two dolls instead of 30, reported the Associated Press. The US President assured Americans that his tariffs will not result in a recession, while acknowledging that they could result in fewer and costlier products. According to the UN's COMTRADE database, China continues to be the dominant supplier of toys to the US market. In 2024, the US imported nearly $32.04 billion worth of toys, games, and sports requisites from China. Trump's remarks come after data from the Commerce Department revealed that the US economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.3 per cent during the first three months of 2025, which also aligns with Trump's first 100 days in office. The decline in the US economy was due to the increase in imports as companies rushed to bring in goods before tariffs on autos and other imports came into effect, the report said. Trump informed his Cabinet that his tariffs on China implied that the latter was having difficulty because their factories were not doing business. He further claimed that the US did not need imports from the world's dominant manufacturer. China exposes luxury goods market Trump tariffs Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on over 100 countries on April 2. While most countries tried to negotiate a trade deal with the US to avoid the reciprocal tariffs, China retaliated and engaged in a trade war with the US. On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day pause on these tariffs, however, he excluded China.
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
6 things from Canada that are about to cost more because of tariffs
Canadian voters swept economist Mark Carney into office this week, defeating conservative and Trump-aligned Pierre Poilievre and giving the Liberal party a hold on power for a fourth straight term. Just a few months ago, the Conservatives were widely expected to rout the Liberal party as Canadians soured on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's leadership. But as Trump began talking annexing Canada and imposing tariffs, public opinion swung back towards Carney, who was viewed as more like to stand up to Trump. 'As I have been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. But these are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us,' Carney said. 'That will never ever happen.' Trump's new tariffs on Canada, part of his escalating trade war, were likely to raise prices no matter who had won. Here are some of the biggest U.S. imports from Canada, as listed by the detailed four-digit Harmonized Tariff System code level, that might become more expensive in the near future. A report from the United States Congressional Energy & Natural Resources Committee notes that 60 percent of U.S. oil imports come from Canada. Consumer prices for gasoline, diesel fuel, and other petroleum products throughout the country could be affected by crude oil import tariffs, especially in regions most reliant on imports from Canada. The report adds that crude oil typically is the largest retail price component for gasoline and diesel fuel. Higher crude oil costs, along with operational decisions influenced by lower refining profit margins, can be reflected in wholesale petroleum product prices, which are passed directly to consumers. According to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade, the U.S. imported cars from Canada totaling $28.4 billion in 2024, accounting for about 12% of all cars sold in the U.S. Expect to pay thousands more for a car as tariffs kick in. Canadians love their baked goods — and they ship a lot to the U.S., where people also love their baked goods. The U.S. Trade Representatives office reports that in 2024, Canada was the top supplier of U.S. baked goods imports, with a value of $5.4 billion. Be prepared for your favorite cookies and doughnuts to become an even guiltier pleasure. According to the United Nations COMTRADE database, the U.S. imports over $2 billion worth of chocolate from Canada per year. Food prices will rise 2.8% from Trump's tariffs according to Yale University's Budget Lab estimates, but prices on some items will go even higher. Over 99.5% of U.S. lobster imports and 98.8% of scallop imports came from Canada in 2024, according to research firm Tridge. The total value of these imports reaches $1.42 billion for lobsters and $84.8 million for scallops. According to Impakter, Canada is America's biggest supplier of toilet paper. The U.S. imported $275 in T.P. from its northern neighbor in 2023. According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration's tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber could disrupt the availability of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, which is used in most toilet paper brands. If tariffs climb higher than 27%, sawmills may shut down, reducing pulp availability and leading to shortages and price hikes. For the latest news, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
