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Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Will Chevron's Dividend Growth Outlook Weaken Amid Headwinds?
Chevron Corporation CVX has long been a reliable dividend stock in the energy sector, offering stability in a typically volatile space. With a current yield around 5% and a five-year dividend growth rate of about 6%, its payouts remain appealing. However, there are signs that future dividend growth may slow down — not because the dividend is at risk, but due to shifting financial reason is the loss of high-margin oil production from Venezuela, which used to provide extra free cash flow. While not critical to operations, its absence reduces Chevron's financial flexibility. At the same time, the company's increasing focus on short-cycle shale production, particularly in the Permian Basin, demands ongoing reinvestment. Unlike long-term deepwater projects, shale requires constant drilling to sustain output, creating a trade-off between funding growth and raising like the Tengiz expansion in Kazakhstan could ease this pressure by 2026, giving Chevron more room to increase payouts. But until then, if oil stays around $60-$65, the company may prioritize maintaining a strong balance sheet and investing in production over aggressively increasing dividends. ExxonMobil XOM, Chevron's main competitor, offers a slightly lower dividend yield but has shown stronger coverage in recent quarters. Its focus on long-term projects like Guyana and LNG, which require less frequent reinvestment once operational, gives ExxonMobil more room to support future dividend SHEL, meanwhile, took a different path — cutting its dividend significantly in 2020. The European supermajor was forced to slash its quarterly dividend by two-thirds to weather the COVID-induced oil price crash and preserve cash. Since then, Shell has been cautiously rebuilding payouts while also investing heavily in its energy transition this backdrop, Chevron remains a dependable dividend payer, but it may start losing its appeal compared to ExxonMobil's more stable returns, while Shell is not one of the Dividend Aristocrats known for steady payout growth though it boasts of an impressive record. Shares of Chevron have lost around 4% year to date. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research From a valuation standpoint, Chevron's forward 12-month P/E multiple stands at over 18X, well above the subindustry. CVX carries a Value Score of D. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chevron's 2025 earnings implies a 32% decline year over year. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Chevron Corporation (CVX) : Free Stock Analysis Report Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) : Free Stock Analysis Report Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR (SHEL) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Axios
14 hours ago
- Automotive
- Axios
Pandemic flashback: Manufacturers can't get supplies
American manufacturers are having pandemic flashbacks: some say tariff disruptions are starting to stack up to the COVID era, with nearly as much difficulty securing critical inputs. Why it matters: Tariffs were supposed to spur a manufacturing renaissance, not bring the manufacturing economy grinding to a halt. The big picture: Factories are reporting increasingly longer delivery times for supplies. Material prices are rising at a faster rate. Automakers are warning of supply disruptions shutting down assembly lines, with at least one carmaker pausing production. This time there is no deadly virus, though trade wars and tariffs are still sending shockwaves through global supply chains, which could leave consumers with fewer options on shelves. What they're saying:"The administration's tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of COVID-19," an electric equipment manufacturer told the Institute for Supply Management in the group's most recent sector survey. State of play: Supplier delivery times are the slowest in 2 years, that survey showed — a result of companies slowing or canceling shipments in the wake of on-again, off-again tariffs. Suppliers are also struggling to keep up with manufacturers' accelerated requests to get goods into the country before tariffs take effect. It is taking longer for customs to clear shipments newly subject to tariffs. The process is further bogged down by companies "haggling" over who should pay the tariff bill, ISM said. The intrigue: This is an economic data anomaly. Supplier delays typically happen when manufacturers are racing to keep up with consumer demand, like 2021. But manufacturers are seeing new orders dry up at the fastest pace since the pandemic: "It is not normal that you have weak demand conditions, yet lead times are getting longer," Jason Miller, a supply chain management professor at Michigan State University, tells Axios. Tariff disruptions linger Threat level: The longer the disruptions last, the longer it takes to undo — even if tariffs vanish. "If the President wakes up tomorrow and says 'this is over,' you would see a huge boom and delivery times would get longer," Miller says. "That would be like throwing gasoline on fire." "It takes time for supply chains to get knotted up, but once it gets knotted, it takes a long time to get rectified," Miller said. Between the lines: Delivery times are below the peak seen in 2021, the height of the COVID-induced supply chain bottleneck, though auto manufacturers are sounding the alarm over shortages that threaten the type of plant closures last seen during the pandemic. China cracked down on exports of rare earth elements and magnets to hit back at the U.S. for its tariffs. It controls the world's supply of these materials, despite years-long efforts to diversify stateside. That leaves U.S. automakers with no other option for the rare earth magnets that are necessary for critical components, including headlights and steering systems. Ford temporarily closed a Chicago-area factory last month after magnets ran dry, the New York Times reported. An auto trade group warned the White House of a possible "shutdown of assembly lines," Reuters reported. Another manufacturing gauge published by S&P Global found that supplier delays and price hikes spiked to the highest level since 2022 last month. Firms overwhelmingly blamed tariffs. "Smaller firms, and those in consumer facing markets, appear worst hit so far by the impact of tariffs on supply and price," Chris Williamson, an economist at S&P Global, said in a release. What to watch: Trump administration officials say China has been slow to restart rare earth mineral shipments, which they claim violates the terms of the trade truce notched last month. Officials say President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping are due to speak as soon as this week; the minerals issue is sure to be near top of the list. "We do not want to de-couple ... but we do need to de-risk," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CBS's Face the Nation last weekend of the relationship with China. The bottom line: The pandemic exposed America's supply vulnerabilities.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Listen to the Market's Whispers: Buy on Upcoming Weakness
'Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.' – Warren BuffettThe market rally off the April lows has been nothing short of extraordinary. In fact, it has been so swift and relentless that many investors have been caught off guard, with positioning far below where it likely should does that mean for stocks going forward?It means that even if we have some short-term downside (which appears to be the case amid rising treasury yields along with the recent U.S. credit rating downgrade), pullbacks are likely to be relatively shallow and short-lived as underexposed investors look to quickly buy any has been a bullish move reminiscent of the astonishing rally off the 2020 COVID-induced plunge. I have to admit, I wasn't expecting a 'V' shaped rally this time around. Still, we noted back in April that there was a large percentage of stocks in oversold territory. Combined with historically bearish sentiment along with a high level of fear, we had the recipe for a strong lockout rally to materialize – and that's exactly what we saw This Rally in PerspectiveA bit over a month ago, the S&P 500 was down over 15% on the year and narrowly avoided an official bear market (in fact, it closed down 19% from its highs and touched bear territory intraday). The Nasdaq officially entered by mid-May, the S&P 500 soared back into the green for 2025. It was the fastest recovery in over 40 years, with the index erasing its 15% YTD loss in less than six weeks. It's a good reminder that one of the worst mistakes we can make is to panic sell during times of market reached maximum headline fear in April as the tariff problem was covered extensively by financial media outlets. Markets have a habit of bottoming on maximum fear. What many weren't expecting were the positive headlines that would soon follow, helping to relieve some of the volatility that plagued markets in the first market is now telling us two things. First, it's to expect a quicker-than-anticipated resolution to the tariff issues and trade wars. And alongside that, the assumption is that inflation remains under control, which will allow the Fed to resume the rate-cutting process. This should provide a further tailwind to equity evidence is now pointing to the notion that this correction in the S&P 500 has come to an abrupt end. Let's take a look at a few reasons why the worst of the selling is likely behind . . .------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Deadline Approaching: Zacks' 7 Best Stocks for JuneFrom 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy stocks, our experts hand-picked these 7 compelling companies as the most likely to spike NOW. While we can't guarantee 100% success, they are likely to jump sooner and climb higher than any others you could buy this distribution is limited, so don't miss out. The deadline is midnight Sunday, June 1st. Hurry – See Stocks Now >>------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Three Motives to Buy on Weakness from HereBearish Sentiment Remains PrevalentDespite the latest rally, the bears won't give up. Most investors still remain bearish amid the recent volatility, so there's certainly fuel to push markets even higher in the coming start with consumers and individual investors. Consumer sentiment plunged in May as Americans grew more pessimistic about the inflation outlook. The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed its sentiment index registered at 50.8, its second-lowest reading on record. Image Source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center, Surveys of ConsumersAlong the same lines, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) – a nonprofit organization whose purpose is to educate individual investors – also conducts sentiment surveys. As recently as early May, the percentage of AAII investors spent 11 straight weeks with more than 50% bears, which marked a new record. Clearly, pervasive bearish sentiment has dominated the minds of individual about professional fund managers? The recently released Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey showed the fifth-lowest level on record in terms of fund manager sentiment. Additionally, it showed a record number of participants who intend to cut U.S. equity survey also showed the largest two-month jump in cash since April 2020, along with the 4th highest recession expectations ever. Given this survey looks at managers who manage actual portfolios, this is a potential contrarian Index Completes RoundtripIn bull markets, spikes in the volatility (VIX) index typically represent great buying opportunities. Remember, it's not imperative for us to call the exact top in the VIX or the exact bottom in the market. We're not in the business of calling tops and bottoms, we're in the business of making money consistently and allowing gains to compound over the VIX index closes above the 50-price level for the first time in a cycle, it has likely been preceded by poor market performance driven by panic. We took a look at past instances in which the VIX closed above 50 and subsequently plunged to close back below 30. This indicator has been known as a 'bear market killer.' Image Source: Chart Courtesy of back to the early 2000s, the volatility index only experienced this exact type of movement two other times: following the Great Recession low in 2009, and after the COVID-19 bear market in 2020. Both instances marked an important bottom in the market. And looking out one year from the date the VIX closed back below 30, the S&P 500 rose +23.2% and +44.5% in those respective average drawdown after each signal was 3.55%, while the maximum drawdown was 3.75%. This tells us that it wouldn't be too shocking to see a bit of a retracement here, but any pullback should be relatively since then, the VIX has actually managed to close back below 20, marking the largest 6-week volatility crash in history. Looking at the 20 other biggest monthly declines in the VIX, the 1-year forward returns for the S&P 500 averaged more than +20%, telling us to keep an open mind about better-than-expected outcomes Remains on a Downward Trajectory To top it all off, inflation has remained tame this year even in the face of President Trump's tariffs. April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation pressures actually eased, despite it being the first month that many tariffs were in effect. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that consumer prices increased just 2.3% over the prior year, below estimates of 2.4%. It marked the lowest annual increase since February 2021. Image Source: Zacks Research SystemOn a 'core' basis, which strips out volatile food and energy components, prices rose 2.8% over the past year, in line with a more dovish signal, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack recently indicated that policymakers could move forward with a rate cut in June if the data comes in as expected.'If we have clear and convincing data by June, then I think you'll see the committee move if we know which way is the right way to move at that point in time,' Hammack downward trend in inflation should prompt the Fed to resume the rate-cutting process, which will likely serve as another boost for stocks moving Thoughts These tailwinds are presenting a bullish setup for equities. Many individual stocks are now forming proper bases, another sign that this latest push higher has legs.I'll leave you with this. The S&P 500 has been in 11 bull markets (not including the current one) since 1949. The index hit a new high in January of 2024 following the inflation-induced bear market of 2022. Dating back to the 1950s, once those former highs were put in the rearview mirror, bull markets have lasted an average of another 4.5 overlooked fact suggests the potential for more gains ahead that could be substantial. Investors normally underestimate the length and magnitude of bull markets. It looks like this latest correction will turn out to be a great buying in my opinion, it's still early. Bearish investor sentiment, declining volatility, and a tame inflation trend suggest further gains are on the Advantage Today The time is now to get in (and not miss out) on more gains to has just released a brand-new Special Report, 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days, and you're invited to be one of the first to see team of experts combed through the latest Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys and handpicked seven exciting companies poised for significant price increases. They're likely to jump sooner and climb higher than any other stock you could buy this future success isn't guaranteed, recent winners have climbed +46.4%, +61.8% and +97.3% in just 30 days.¹Our latest picks could soar just as high, or higher, and you can see them for only $1. You'll also get 30-day access to all of Zacks' private portfolios for the same dollar.I encourage you to take advantage right away. The earlier you get in, the greater profits you stand to make. But don't delay. We're limiting the number of investors who share our 7 Best Stocks, so this opportunity will end midnight Sunday, June and check out Zacks' portfolios for just $1 >> Good Investing,Bryan Hayes, CFABryan Hayes, CFA, manages our Zacks Income Investor and Headline Trader portfolios. He employs a combination of fundamental and technical analysis and has developed a unique approach to selecting stocks with the best profit potential. You can also find him covering a host of investment topics for The results listed above are not (or may not be) representative of the performance of all selections made by Zacks Investment Research's newsletter editors and may represent the partial close of a position. Access grants you a comprehensive list of all open and closed trades. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Hamilton Spectator
13-05-2025
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
‘Prepare for a long recession and hope for a short one': How to financially prepare for economic downturn and job loss
Canada is not in a recession — not yet anyway — but people should be prepared for one, said Peta Wales, president and CEO of Credit Counselling Society, a non-profit organization offering accredited debt counselling. The good news is we're forewarned ahead of the looming economic turbulence, so hopefully people are taking action now, while they're still employed, to prepare for it, Wales said. 'I would say that's a little bit different from the past recessions, like the COVID-induced recession of 2020 or even the Great Recession of 2008. I don't think those recessions had the same level of predictability and forewarning,' she said. Another thing that's different this time around is that the looming potential recession is driven by geopolitics, not as part of a natural economic cycle, meaning the economic recovery may be unpredictable. 'We don't know if this going to be a short recession or a long one, but I would say the prudent approach would be to prepare for a long recession and hope for a short one,' she said. The worst thing that could happen from being overprepared is you end up with more savings than you need and even better spending and saving habits. Being underprepared, on the other hand, may result in some hardship. 'That's why it's so critically important that people take action now because we don't know how long this recession will last. The longer runway you have to prepare, the better off you'll be,' she said. The Credit Counselling Society offers money-saving tips to help people survive a recession. While you can read the guide on the organization's website , it comes down to these five basic tips: Wales added that everyone should be taking a deep dive into their finances and making a budget. And you should be looking at your expenses from as far back as a year ago because certain costs are incurred annually or quarterly, and you may not catch them if you only look at a few months of finances. Once you've done that, you can identify the nondiscretionary expenses such as rent, utility bills, food costs, medical bills and others that must be paid, and the discretionary expenses. You can prioritize the discretionary items you want to keep and eliminate or reduce the others. Once you reduce those expenses, put that money toward an emergency fund. Your emergency fund should have three to six months' worth of income, Wales said. You should be building this emergency fund now, while you're still employed. 'Now is particularly important. We're not quite in a recession yet, but we can see it on the horizon. If you're in a role that is more directly tied to U.S. trade and the challenges that we're experiencing, your job's at risk,' she said 'So, you want to make sure you have an emergency fund built up.' People should also reallocate some of those discretionary dollars toward paying down high-interest debt, as those payments become difficult to manage if you lose your job or end up working reduced hours. Also, don't be afraid to seek help, if you need it. Wales suggests non-profit credit counselling agencies, which can provide free counselling and walk you through dealing with your financial difficulty. 'Canadians today are stretched already, many households are already struggling with higher living costs, higher levels of debt, so preparation is key,' she said. 'We can't control what happens globally, but we can certainly control what happens in our homes, and so there really is no downside to taking a look at your finances now and preparing for what's to come.'
The Hindu
09-05-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
Vice-President says national interest is paramount
In the backdrop of India targeting terrorist camps in Pakistan, Vice-president Jagdeep Dhankhar on Friday said every Indian had today realised the power, perspective and vision of the governance and it had elevated the spirit of every citizen of the country. He was speaking at the release of Haryana Governor Bandaru Dattatraya's autobiography, 'Janta Ki Kahani Meri Aatamkatha', at Maharashtra Sadan here. Saying that no interest – personal, political or economic – could be above the national interest, Mr. Dhankhar emphasised that 'expression' and 'debate' were complimentary in a democratic system and cannot survive without each other. 'Democracy cannot survive without expression and if the person believes that whatever he is saying is correct then the expression is meaningless. If we stray away from expression and debate, then ego and arrogance will come which is very painful for both democracy and an individual,' said the Vice-president, recalling how Mr. Dattatraya himself followed this principle in his life to open debate with the Naxalites in 1984. The autobiography is a personal and historically significant work that presents an in-depth account of the life and journey of Mr. Dattatraya, who served as Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh pracharak for long before entering active politics with the formation of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Originally written in Telugu, the book was later translated into Hindi. Through this, readers will get to read the story of Mr. Dattatraya's personal experiences and political evolution. Born on June 12, 1947, Mr. Dattatraya served as Union Minister of State for Railways in Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 2002, besides holding several other portfolios and positions in the party for the past over four decades. Mr. Dattatraya said three Cs – character, commitment and conviction – were the important aspects of life and every challenge could be faced by imbibing these three traits. He said he came from a very humble background, his mother being a street vendor, and had never dreamt to be a Minister or a Governor, but only aimed to dedicate his life to the welfare of the common man. Mr. Dattatraya said he was not a poet or a writer, but was encouraged by the people around him to audio record his experiences during the COVID-induced lockdown and this later took the form of a book. Union Minister for Power, Housing and Urban Affairs Manohar Lal praised the Governor as 'truly an epitome of humility' and said that his book showcased the story of a simple human being. Bihar Governor Arif Mohammad Khan and Union Minister G. Kishan Reddy also addressed the gathering. Union Ministers Arjun Ram Meghwal and Anurag Thakur and Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Saini were also present.
