7 days ago
Trump and the art of war
President Donald Trump is practising a new art of war with trade as the weapon in his second term. US Foreign policy initiatives reflects this into a complex interplay of assertive nationalism, strategic diplomacy, and decisions supported by his base. Some actions seem aimed to strengthen US interests, while others draw significant criticism and raise questions about their long-term implications. He is making radical policy shifts executing bold ideas — such as withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, suspending foreign aid, or proposing radical solutions for Gaza and pushing territorial ambitions with regard to Canada and Greenland. Sun Tzu, Chanakya, John Boyd, Clausewitz and Machiavelli would marvel at this practice of the art of war. Donald Trump (Bloomberg)
Trump views alliances and diplomacy through a business and trade lens, but now he is more overtly pursuing transactional goals, be it trade benefits, security deals, or foreign policy influence. This is nothing but a cold war in a different dimension.
He has strengthened US-Saudi relations by broadening investments and trade to enhance economic cooperation; this helps influence oil prices. His strategic realignments follow a transactional approach to traditional alliances, for example, demanding that NATO to increase defence spending. His aggressive trade policy aims to protect American industries but raise concerns about potential economic repercussions. His policies also aim to realign strategic interests of so-called autonomous countries.
Pakistan adeptly plays China and the US against each other—securing military aid, economic support, and diplomatic backing from both at different times. Pakistan has positioned itself as a strategic pivot, for the US (counter-terrorism) and for China for economic benefits (CPEC Corridor). Pakistan has long pursued strategic goals in India and Afghanistan using non-State actors, allowing plausible deniability while bleeding opponents indirectly. Pakistan uses its nuclear arsenal to offset India's conventional superiority, enabling the space for grey zone tactics without full-scale retaliation. Practising narrative warfare, it invests in shaping global perceptions using diplomacy, diaspora, and media to portray itself as a victim of terrorism, while distancing itself from supporting certain militant groups.
India, even though viewed as a natural partner of the US, has irked Trump for being strategically autonomous. Washington wants India to be a part of his vision-which will translate into less dependence on defence and energy ties with Russia, without understanding India's short- and medium-term compulsions. US firms face regulatory friction in India due to disagreements on data, tariffs, or protectionism. Trump proclaims India's economy as dead, yet feels it enriches Russia to fight Ukraine. This is indeed a conundrum.
Trump's reinstatement of the maximum pressure campaign on Iran, aims to compel Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement. This policy included heightened economic sanctions and then, forgetting the 'peace feather' bombs Iran for supporting terror, looking the other way in the case of Pakistan. Trump has a calculated and strategically measured approach to diplomacy and power projection yet featuring impulsive tweets and unpredictable moves as part of his manoeuvre.
Trump is more legacy-conscious and recognises the cold war in play where China is asserting itself as a hegemon. He is also intent on proving his critics wrong, making his second term a mission of redemption for the western world. He is tougher and less tolerant to opposition. Policies are rolled out faster, with a new class of policy makers who do not believe in diplomatic softening or their agenda. Trump's cabinet and advisors are more ideologically aligned, creating a tighter, less contested decision-making circle as he now dominates the Republican party completely, allowing more freedom with fewer checks. Donald Trump's tariff pressure strategy, reflects key principles primarily from both Sun Tzu and Chanakya (Kautilya).
Trump's art of war is influenced by Sun Tzu in his principle—'the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting'. Trump uses tariffs as an economic weapon, avoiding direct military conflict, especially with China. His aim is to force negotiations and shift trade balances in America's favour through economic pressure, not warfare. Trump targeted sectors where the US had leverage (viz tech, agriculture) and where China was vulnerable (viz exports, supply chains) by following Sun Tzu's principle—'know the enemy and know yourself, and you need not fear the result of a hundred battles'. He understood US consumer power and tried to use it strategically. He uses surprise and disruption with sudden tariff announcements to unbalance opponents, creating unpredictability — a Sun Tzu tactic 'to gain psychological and negotiating advantage'. China first faced a minimum tariff rate of 145% and then it was dropped to 30 %, India was next in line with a first volley of 50% tariff fired at it.
Trump has also selectively used Chanakya's influence in theArthashastra—'Sama, Dana, Danda, Bheda' (persuasion, gifts, punishment, division). Trump's tactics mirrored this principle: Sama - initially seeking negotiation (e.g., trade deals) along with Dana by offering incentives (e.g., better access for allies). Then shifting to Danda by imposing tariffs and economic penalties. He ultimately, moves to Bheda--dividing the allies and rivals (e.g., EU vs China and Pakistan vs India and China vs India). With Pakistan, he stopped at the first step of Sama as it became fully compliant promptly. Chanakya in his principle of strategic manipulation and deterrence advised kings to project strength and punish economically to force compliance. Trump weaponised tariffs to alter the behaviour of trading partners. Chanakya emphasised national interest over idealism. Trump too followed a blunt, transactional approach (America First), pushing US advantage above global consensus. Trump used Machiavelli making his bold, sometimes divisive in tactics echoed the Prince, valuing results over popularity and using fear as a tool of control and influence. He turns Clausewitz, which is military-oriented in his idea of 'war as continuation of politics by other means'.
The US is using diversion by 'barking aloud at Russia with an eye to bite China'--a primary rival due to its economic heft that challenges the US. In combination with military expansion, also in the Indo-Pacific, China threatens US dominance in Asia. From Artificial Intelligence to quantum computing and semiconductors, the US sees China as a hegemon in the making through trade as its weapon and a tech competitor. Russia, on the other hand, is a mere disruptor—especially in Europe (Ukraine, energy blackmail, hybrid warfare). Its military threat is immediate, but long-term strategic competition is limited due to economic and demographic weaknesses.
Trump's tariff strategy isn't random, it aligns with Sun Tzu's indirect warfare; Chanakya's multidimensional statecraft and Machiavellian pragmatism. His approach combines economic leverage, strategic pressure, and psychological tactics to reshape global trade relations — reflecting the timeless principles of classical strategists. In summary, Trump in his second term is a more determined, legacy-driven, and assertively nationalist leader. He is less interested in optics and more focused on shaping outcomes that reflect his definition of American strength. The real strategic competitor of the US today is China, though Russia remains a major adversary—especially in military and geopolitical terms. India is a strategic partner, but gets caught in the frictions of great power politics and domestic perceptions in the West.
India's challenge is to stay autonomous, will have serious repercussions on India's economy. India is in the same position as in the past where India chose to be non-aligned. It now deserves to be a global power and to achieve it will require extremely deft handling. Economics and national security go hand in hand. India needs to refrain from rhetoric and act in the best interests of our masses, build strength first before reaching the pinnacle of power.
This article is authored by Lt Gen PJS Pannu, former deputy chief, Integrated Defence Services.
