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News18
3 days ago
- Business
- News18
RBI MPC Meeting August 2025 Live Updates: Will Sanjay Malhotra Announce Another Repo Rate Cut Or Status Quo?
RBI Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, Repo Rate Cut Live Updates: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is set to announce the Monetary Policy Committee's decision on interest rates in the country, at 10 am today. Though most economists expect the central bank to keep the repo rate unchanged, several say that the RBI MPC might announce a final 25-basis-point rate cut before an extended status quo. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, began its three-day deliberation on Monday, August 4. It concludes today, August 6. The six-member MPC includes Governor Sanjay Malhotra, Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta, Executive Director Rajiv Ranjan, and three external members: Nagesh Kumar, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Ram Singh. In the previous policy review in June 2025, the RBI MPC had announced a surprise 50 basis points repo rate cut, bringing the key policy rate down to 5.5%, and a 100-bps CRR reduction as the RBI signalled confidence in the easing of price pressures amid a supportive global and domestic backdrop. The RBI has cut the repo rate by 100 bps in three consecutive rate cuts. India's retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 2.1 per cent in June 2025, the latest available data. It is the lowest inflation print after January 2019. The CPI-based inflation had stood at 2.82 per cent in May 2025 and 5.08 per cent in June 2024. The RBI is mandated to keep inflation at 4%, with a tolerance band of (-/+) 2%. In June 2025 policy, the RBI revised its retail inflation projection for FY26 to 3.7%, down from its earlier estimate of 4%. This marks the lowest average retail inflation forecast by the central bank in recent years.
News18
5 days ago
- Business
- News18
RBI MPC Meeting Starts Today: Status Quo Or Another Rate Cut On Wednesday? What Economists Say
Last Updated: RBI MPC Meeting August 2025: With the repo rate at 5.5 per cent after three consecutive cuts totalling 100 bps, economists are divided on the RBI's upcoming policy decision. RBI MPC Meeting August 2025: The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will begin its three-day deliberation today, August 4. The policy decision will be announced on Wednesday, August 6. With the repo rate currently at 5.5 per cent after three consecutive rate cuts totalling 100 basis points, economists are divided on whether the central bank will go for another reduction or pause for now. Most experts believe the central bank may hold rates steady this time, especially after having frontloaded rate cuts. The RBI MPC has already effected three back-to-back reductions in the short-term lending rate (repo), cumulating to 100 basis points (bps). Controlled inflation and resilient domestic growth have provided the RBI with some room to manoeuvre, but external headwinds — particularly the 25 per cent US tariffs on Indian exports — have clouded the near-term economic outlook. Bank of Baroda's Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis said the monetary policy decision is unlikely to be swayed by June's low inflation or the latest US tariff development, as much of this had already been factored in during the earlier policy review. He anticipates a marginal downward revision in the inflation projection to 3.5–3.6 per cent but does not expect a rate cut at this stage. 'Therefore, the tariff per se may not really change the view on growth, though it would be interesting to see how the RBI looks at this number. There can be a slight downward revision in inflation projection for the year by 0.1-0.2 per cent, i.e. 3.5-3.6 per cent instead of 3.7 per cent," Sabnavis said, as per news agency PTI. CareEdge Ratings also believes the RBI will likely hold off on further cuts. It said the central bank has already responded proactively to inflation trends and would prefer to wait and assess the transmission of previous rate reductions before making any fresh move. 'Hence, we do not expect further rate cuts unless growth concerns aggravate. While the US reciprocal tariff rate and proposed penalty are concerning, the RBI may opt to wait till we get further clarity on this front. With a forward-looking outlook, the RBI would be focusing on inflation in the quarters ahead," it said. India's retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 2.1 per cent in June 2025, the latest available data. It is the lowest inflation print after January 2019. The CPI-based inflation had stood at 2.82 per cent in May 2025 and 5.08 per cent in June 2024. The RBI is mandated to keep inflation at 4%, with a tolerance band of (-/+) 2%. In June 2025 policy, the RBI revised its retail inflation projection for FY26 to 3.7%, down from its earlier estimate of 4%. This marks the lowest average retail inflation forecast by the central bank in recent years. Several Economists Expect Rate Cut However, some economists are still leaning towards one final round of easing. Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said that with CPI inflation falling to 2.1 per cent in June and staying well below the RBI's 4 per cent target, there may be space for one last 25-basis-point rate cut. She also flagged the downside risks to GDP growth stemming from the US tariffs and the resulting rupee volatility. 'Further, the tariffs imposed by the US will pose a downside risk to GDP growth, while admittedly injecting volatility into the INR. In our view, the balance remains slightly tilted towards a final rate cut of 25 bps in the August 2025 policy review," Nayar said. Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at Crisil, echoed this view, saying the risks to economic growth currently outweigh those linked to inflation. 'We anticipate a 25 basis point reduction in the repo rate, as inflation has been lower than anticipated," he noted. The six-member MPC includes Governor Sanjay Malhotra, Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta, Executive Director Rajiv Ranjan, and three external members: Nagesh Kumar, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Ram Singh. With inflation under control and economic uncertainty mounting, Wednesday's policy outcome will reveal whether the RBI continues on the path of monetary easing or chooses to pause and observe the broader global and domestic environment. In the previous policy review in June 2025, the RBI MPC had announced a surprise 50 basis points repo rate cut, bringing the key policy rate down to 5.5%, and a 100-bps CRR reduction as the RBI signalled confidence in the easing of price pressures amid a supportive global and domestic backdrop. tags : RBI MPC RBI MPC Meeting view comments Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: August 04, 2025, 08:53 IST News business » economy RBI MPC Meeting Starts Today: Status Quo Or Another Rate Cut On Wednesday? What Economists Say Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Canada News.Net
6 days ago
- Business
- Canada News.Net
Expect pause in next policy meeting, RBI already frontloaded rate cuts: CareEdge
New Delhi [India], August 3 (ANI): The RBI has already frontloaded the rate cuts, anticipating the moderation in inflation, and it is unlikely the central bank would go for further rate cuts unless economic growth concerns aggravate, CareEdge said in a pre-monetary policy review meeting. While the US reciprocal tariff rate (25 per cent for India) and proposed penalty are concerning, the RBI may opt to wait till 'we get further clarity on this front', the rating agency said. The next bi-monthly RBI monetary policy review meeting is scheduled for August 4-6, 2025. 'With a forward-looking outlook, the RBI would be focusing on inflation in the quarters ahead,' the report read. With CPI-based retail inflation expected to breach 4 per cent in Q4 2025-26 and average 4.5 per cent in 2026-27, the real policy rate would settle in the range of 1-1.5 per cent at the current repo rate, it asserted. 'Therefore, a rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting appears unlikely. Given the incomplete transmission of the previous rate cuts, the RBI is expected to hold off on further easing, allowing time for the full impact of earlier measures to materialise,' the report read. 'With the RBI having already frontloaded rate cuts and ensured ample liquidity, the MPC may prefer to pause for now and assess how the macroeconomic landscape evolves. Additionally, transmission of the previous rate cuts is still underway and could take some more time to show its effect on the economy.' The upcoming monetary policy meeting in August takes place against the backdrop of a notable moderation in headline inflation in recent months, largely driven by easing food prices. Inflation is projected to average below the 4 per cent target over the next two quarters, supported by a favourable base and muted food inflation. The global trade policy uncertainty will continue to cast a shadow on India's growth outlook; however, the overall impact is likely to be limited given India's limited merchandise trade exposure to the US economy, CareEdge noted. After a total of 100 basis point repo rate reduction since February 2025, the scope for more rate cuts was limited, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had hinted after the latest monetary policy meeting. The recent frontloaded repo rate cut by the RBI was understandably aimed at boosting economy, which has relatively moderated. (ANI)
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Monetary policy: RBI likely to hold repo rate at 5.5% amid growth concerns, subdued inflation
The is expected to maintain the repo rate at 5.5 per cent in its upcoming monetary policy review on August 6, following three consecutive rate cuts totalling 100 basis points. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will begin its three-day deliberations on Monday. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now While inflation remains comfortably below the RBI's target range, with CPI-based retail inflation at 2.1 per cent in June, experts quoted by news agency PTI believe the central bank may hold off on further easing to assess the full impact of earlier cuts. Bank of Baroda chief economist Madan Sabnavis noted that recent inflation prints and the 25 per cent US tariff would have already been factored in during previous policy discussions. 'We do not expect any change of stance or policy rate this time. The tone will be more cautious with some comfort being drawn on the resilient growth front,' he said, as per PTI. As per CareEdge Ratings, 'the RBI had already frontloaded the rate cuts, anticipating the moderation in inflation,' and further reductions are unlikely unless growth challenges worsen. The agency added that incomplete transmission of earlier cuts also argues for a pause. Icra chief economist Aditi Nayar pointed out that 'with recent CPI prints signalling a lower trajectory for the second half of this calendar year,' inflation estimates could be revised downward from the MPC's earlier projection of 3.7 per cent. 'The tariffs imposed by the US will pose a downside risk to GDP growth… the balance remains slightly tilted towards a final rate cut of 25 bps,' she added, as per PTI. Crisil's Dharmakirti Joshi shared a similar view, anticipating a 25-basis-point cut, citing low inflation and greater risks to growth. The RBI is tasked with keeping inflation at 4 per cent, with a ±2 per cent margin. The MPC includes RBI officials Sanjay Malhotra, Poonam Gupta, Rajiv Ranjan, and external members Nagesh Kumar, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Ram Singh.
Economic Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Expect pause in next policy meeting, RBI already frontloaded rate cuts: CareEdge
New Delhi: The RBI has already frontloaded the rate cuts, anticipating the moderation in inflation, and it is unlikely the central bank would go for further rate cuts unless economic growth concerns aggravate, CareEdge said in a pre-monetary policy review meeting. While the US reciprocal tariff rate (25 per cent for India) and proposed penalty are concerning, the RBI may opt to wait till "we get further clarity on this front", the rating agency said. The next bi-monthly RBI monetary policy review meeting is scheduled for August 4-6, 2025."With a forward-looking outlook, the RBI would be focusing on inflation in the quarters ahead," the report read. With CPI-based retail inflation expected to breach 4 per cent in Q4 2025-26 and average 4.5 per cent in 2026-27, the real policy rate would settle in the range of 1-1.5 per cent at the current repo rate, it asserted. "Therefore, a rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting appears unlikely. Given the incomplete transmission of the previous rate cuts, the RBI is expected to hold off on further easing, allowing time for the full impact of earlier measures to materialise," the report read."With the RBI having already frontloaded rate cuts and ensured ample liquidity, the MPC may prefer to pause for now and assess how the macroeconomic landscape evolves. Additionally, transmission of the previous rate cuts is still underway and could take some more time to show its effect on the economy."The upcoming monetary policy meeting in August takes place against the backdrop of a notable moderation in headline inflation in recent months, largely driven by easing food prices. Inflation is projected to average below the 4 per cent target over the next two quarters, supported by a favourable base and muted food global trade policy uncertainty will continue to cast a shadow on India's growth outlook; however, the overall impact is likely to be limited given India's limited merchandise trade exposure to the US economy, CareEdge a total of 100 basis point repo rate reduction since February 2025, the scope for more rate cuts was limited, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had hinted after the latest monetary policy meeting. The recent frontloaded repo rate cut by the RBI was understandably aimed at boosting economy, which has relatively moderated.
