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The killer bolt: Lightning strikes now India's deadliest weather hazard

Between April and July this year alone, 1,621 people died due to rain and lightning strikes, Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai told the Rajya Sabha last week, citing inputs from states and union territories. The toll includes 100 deaths between April 10 and April 12, when lightning strikes over Bihar and Uttar Pradesh killed mostly farmers working in open fields, according to reports. This is part of a disturbing pattern: lightning has claimed more lives annually than any other extreme weather event. In 2024, about 1,300 people died due to lightning, according to the World Meteorological Organisation's State of the Climate in Asia report. From 1967 to 2020, lightning killed over 101,000 people in India, National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data shows. Between 2002 and 2024, lightning accounted for nearly 46 per cent of all weather-related deaths in the country, according to the NCRB data. Most lightning-related deaths occur traditionally in eastern India where strikes are more frequent and coincide with peak agricultural activity, particularly paddy sowing during July and August, leaving farmers highly vulnerable. Expanding lightning zones and climate change link Experts said climate change is extending lightning-prone areas into central, northern, north-eastern, and coastal regions, and even the Himalayan foothills. For example, Madhya Pradesh has overtaken Odisha as the most lightning-affected state, while Rajasthan's Bikaner and Churu districts have emerged as the top hotspots, trailing Odisha's Mayurbhanj and Gujarat's Kutch, according to a joint report by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Climate Resilient Observing-Systems Promotion Council (CROPC). Lightning, a sudden discharge of electricity during thunderstorms, requires four conditions: intense heating, high humidity, atmospheric instability, and a trigger such as low pressure. Climate change is making at least two of these conditions -- heating and humidity -- more favourable, said IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra recently. 'For every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature, humidity increases by 7 per cent, making the atmosphere even more favourable for thunderstorms,' he noted. Scientific studies suggest lightning activity could rise by about 10-12 per cent for every degree Celsius of warming, said Professor Manoranjan Mishra, head of geography at Fakir Mohan University in Odisha's Balasore. 'In India, hotter summers and a warming Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are intensifying monsoon convection, creating a perfect stage for lightning,' he said. CROPC Founder Sanjay Srivastava pointed out that the Bay of Bengal sea surface temperatures have risen by 4 degree Celsius, fuelling the moisture that drives lightning storms in eastern states. Mishra, however, said while climate change is a major amplifier, local environmental shifts, rapid urbanisation, land-use changes, and improved detection technologies also contribute to the surge. 'Lightning may always be a natural hazard, but our rapidly changing climate and landscapes are making it a more frequent and deadly visitor in India's skies,' he said. New risk for urban India Cities long plagued by smog, heatwaves, and traffic now face another threat. Once mostly confined to rural heartlands, lightning strikes are becoming more frequent and intense in fast-growing urban areas. 'Lightning has reached urban India,' warned Srivastava. 'We are seeing severe strikes in cities, and the consequences are serious — structurally, economically, and socially.' On multiple occasions in 2024 and 2025, Delhi witnessed several major lightning events, including one on June 28 last year that coincided with the collapse of the facade at Indira Gandhi International Airport's Terminal 1. Although lightning was not the sole cause, Srivastava said such events often come with intense thunder, flash floods, violent wind gusts, and torrential rain. Mohapatra said city residents are increasingly exposed to electromagnetic infrastructure that heightens the lightning risk. Mishra echoed: 'India's cities are shaping their own weather.' The urban heat island effect — caused by concrete, asphalt, and glass absorbing and radiating heat — makes cities hotter than rural areas, triggering strong updrafts and thunderclouds. Air pollution seeds storm clouds, while rapid construction, loss of green cover, and poor drainage heighten flood risks during intense storms, he said. Around 2,000 flights are diverted during monsoons due to thunderstorms, costing airlines an estimated ₹300 crore annually, said Srivastava, adding: 'It's time urban areas became lightning-ready.' Improved forecasting, but last-mile gaps remain According to Mohapatra, the IMD now predicts lightning with 86 per cent accuracy. Forecasts begin with five-day 'potential area' alerts, narrowing to district-specific warnings two days in advance. On the day of an event, nowcasts every three hours provide real-time polygon maps of affected zones. High-resolution models incorporating radar updates every 10 minutes can now predict events within 350 metres. But forecasts alone cannot guarantee fewer deaths. 'Unlike cyclones, where governments can evacuate people, lightning is harder to act upon quickly,' Mohapatra said. Delays occur when alerts pass through multiple channels -- from IMD to state emergency centres to telecom providers, he said. Over the past years, states such as Bihar, Odisha, and West Bengal have urged the Union government to declare lightning a natural disaster, a move that would make victims and their families eligible for compensation. But the Centre has resisted, arguing that deaths can be prevented through awareness. Odisha designated lightning a state-specific disaster in 2015 and, in 2024, it approved the planting of 1.9 million palm trees as a protective measure. In a written reply last week, Rai told Parliament that the Centre had launched a lightning mitigation project worth around ₹186 crore for 50 districts in 10 states -- Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Meghalaya, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal -- to reduce deaths, livestock losses, and damage to infrastructure. Apart from human casualties, 52,367 animals died and 157,818 hectares of farmland were damaged due to rain and lightning in the first four months of 2025-26, Rai said. Experts believe last-mile connectivity is key to minimising fatalities. 'The National Disaster Management Authority has prepared guidelines in every language, but states must shoulder the major burden,' Mohapatra said. Srivastava said that in rural areas, populations are relatively uniform, but in cities, vulnerability varies with economic status and education. On June 1, for example, two vendors died when a tree fell on them during a storm, and in Gurugram, a street vendor was killed when a hoarding collapsed, he pointed out. The CROPC, in partnership with the IMD and IIT Madras, has mapped lightning hotspots and fatalities. Their prevention plan includes early warnings and local outreach. DAMINI mobile application as well as WhatsApp groups send real-time alerts to panchayat-appointed safety coordinators. High-risk zones such as hills, water bodies, and open agricultural fields have been identified. The National Lightning and Mitigation Programme is rolling out 'smart poles' in villages equipped with microphones, CCTV cameras, and loudspeakers for warnings. Awareness campaigns -- from planting palm trees to improving housing -- are also underway. 'No matter how advanced forecasts are, they save lives only if people at risk receive warnings in time and act,' Mishra stressed. He advocates the Sthan-Kala-Patra approach to bridge the gap between science and survival and ensure the right person, in the right place, at the right time, takes the right action.