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ASX Trader: Warren Buffett's latest $1.6bn move has Wall Street buzzing
ASX Trader: Warren Buffett's latest $1.6bn move has Wall Street buzzing

Herald Sun

timea day ago

  • Business
  • Herald Sun

ASX Trader: Warren Buffett's latest $1.6bn move has Wall Street buzzing

Over the past five years, while investors chased momentum in tech, the health care sector quietly faded into the background. Once seen as a defensive powerhouse, it devolved into a frustrating, range-bound underperformer - especially in the Australian market. But that dynamic is beginning to shift. The signs of a bottom are emerging not just on the charts, but in sentiment. With inflation cooling and long-term yields stabilising, health care, a traditionally rate-sensitive sector, is creeping back onto institutional radars. Balance sheets are clean, valuations are compelling, and reliable cash flows are once again in demand. Watch the 4600 level closely - it marks the top of the red zone. A breakout there could confirm the trend shift and usher in a new phase of outperformance. CSL: The five-year trap Let's talk about the elephant in the room, CSL Limited. Arguably Australia's flagship biotech company, CSL has spent the last half-decade trapped in a wide, grinding range between $240 and $315. Traders have been conditioned to sell into strength, with the $315 level acting as psychological resistance reinforced by years of repetition. Here's the problem: that mindset is about to be punished. Most investors who've traded CSL over the last five years have done so with a tactical mindset - buying the dips and selling at $315, pocketing short-term gains. But that conditioning has blinded many to the bigger picture. The company has spent this consolidation phase, expanding its R&D footprint, and positioning itself globally in plasma therapies and vaccine innovation. If CSL breaks through $310 with conviction - especially if driven by earnings re-acceleration or a re-rating of the health care sector - those short-term traders will be forced to chase the stock at new highs. That's exactly how secular trends are born: disbelief, followed by FOMO. Technically speaking: The setup is building From a charting perspective, CSL's long-term weekly structure is coiling tighter. Volatility is compressing at its multi-year range, suggesting a breakout may be brewing. Relative strength against the ASX 200 is improving, and key moving averages are beginning to flatten and curl higher. A decisive close above $310–$315 would likely trigger a measured move targeting $400 and beyond. CSL this week posted a 14 per cent increase in underlying net profit, accounting for currency fluctuations, to $US3.3bn for the 12 months to June 30 from $US2.91bn a year earlier. Australia's largest pharmaceutical company CSL plans to spin off its Seqirus business into a separate ASX listing in FY26 as part of a major strategy change to boost growth with about 3000 of the company's workforce to be cut. This isn't just about CSL. Look at the broader basket: Ramsay Health Care (RHC) is stabilising after a steep drawdown. ResMed (RMD) is grinding at all-time highs. Sonic Healthcare (SHL) is showing early signs of accumulation. Even US mega-cap names like UnitedHealth and Eli Lilly are reaffirming global leadership. BUFFETT BUYS HEAVILY INTO HEALTH CARE Adding fuel to the thesis: Warren Buffett's recent move to buy heavily into the health care space is telling. Berkshire Hathaway unveiled a US$1.6 billion stake in UnitedHealth Group - acquiring over five million shares marking what analysts are calling a 'classic Buffett move'. Despite regulatory scrutiny and operational challenges, Buffett's contrarian bet reflects his core strategy of disposable-value investing - buying quality when it's unloved . His action has sparked a 'Buffett bounce' across health care equities and ETFs. As Buffett himself might say, 'We don't have to be smarter than the rest - we just have to be more disciplined than the rest'. And in health care today, discipline and patience may just be about to pay off. Positioning for the reversal The biggest mistake investors make at turning points is failing to shift their mindset. Health care isn't a swing trade anymore, it's setting up for a structural re-rating. Investors should be identifying high-quality franchises with durable competitive advantages, strong cash flow, and scalable platforms in global health services. CSL may well become the poster child for this shift. The range traders who've sold at $300 time and again may find themselves watching helplessly as CSL makes a breakaway run. Those who've done the work, held through the base, and understood the bigger picture will be the ones rewarded. In summary: • The health care sector is showing signs of a long-term bottom after five years of stagnation. • CSL is primed for a potential breakout above its multi-year resistance at $315. • Many traders will likely repeat the past - sell at $300 - only to regret it. • This time, the move could be different. Fundamentals, sentiment, and technicals are aligning. • Don't just trade CSL. Understand it. Because when the breakout comes, it won't wait. Originally published as ASX Trader: Buffett's latest $1.6bn move has Wall Street buzzing

One of the world's largest biotech firms, CSL to cut 3,000 Jobs and spin off its vaccine unit
One of the world's largest biotech firms, CSL to cut 3,000 Jobs and spin off its vaccine unit

Time of India

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Time of India

One of the world's largest biotech firms, CSL to cut 3,000 Jobs and spin off its vaccine unit

Australian biotechnology leader CSL Limited has unveiled a significant restructuring plan , including the demerger of its influenza vaccine division, CSL Seqirus , and the elimination of up to 3,000 jobs globally. This strategic overhaul aims to streamline operations, enhance agility, and bolster shareholder value amid a challenging global economic landscape. CSL is one of the world's largest medical science companies and operates three divisions. CSL plans to spin off CSL Seqirus into a separately listed entity on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) by the end of the 2026 financial year. Seqirus, formed in 2015 through CSL's acquisition of Novartis ' influenza vaccine business, reported revenues of $2.2 billion and an operating result of $1 billion in the 2025 fiscal year. The demerger is expected to unlock significant value, with CSL projecting annual pre-tax cost savings of $500-550 million by 2028. Gordon Naylor, former president of CSL Seqirus, will chair the new company, positioning it as a leading global player in the $7 billion influenza vaccine market. Workforce reductions and operational streamlining The restructuring includes a reduction of up to 3,000 positions, excluding those in blood plasma collection centers . Additionally, CSL will close 22 underperforming plasma centers in the United States during the 2026 financial year. These measures are part of CSL's strategy to simplify its operations and improve efficiency in response to competitive pressures and geopolitical uncertainties. Live Events Financial outlook Despite the restructuring, CSL reported a 14 percent increase in underlying net profit to $3.3 billion for the 2025 fiscal year. The company anticipates net profit for fiscal 2026 to be between $3.45 billion and $3.55 billion, representing a 7-10 percent increase over the previous year. To further enhance shareholder value, CSL announced a $750 million share buyback program and a final dividend of $1.62 per share, a 12 percent increase from the previous year.

Australia Anti-Venom Market Analysis Report 2025-2033 Featuring BSV, Boehringer Ingelheim, Boston Scientific, CSL, Merck, Pfizer, Haffkine Bio-Pharmaceutical
Australia Anti-Venom Market Analysis Report 2025-2033 Featuring BSV, Boehringer Ingelheim, Boston Scientific, CSL, Merck, Pfizer, Haffkine Bio-Pharmaceutical

Yahoo

time30-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Australia Anti-Venom Market Analysis Report 2025-2033 Featuring BSV, Boehringer Ingelheim, Boston Scientific, CSL, Merck, Pfizer, Haffkine Bio-Pharmaceutical

The Australia Anti Venom Market is poised for significant growth, reaching an estimated US$ 39.27 million by 2033 from US$ 22.18 million in 2024, at a CAGR of 6.55% from 2025 to 2033. This expansion is driven by increasing snake and scorpion bites, government initiatives, and industry advancements. Key market segments include Polyvalent and Monovalent Anti-Venoms, targeting snakes, scorpions, and spiders, distributed through clinics, hospitals, and surgical centers. Despite challenges like high production costs and geographic logistics, ongoing research and community engagement aim to enhance antivenom efficacy and accessibility. Major companies include CSL Limited and Pfizer Inc. Australian Anti-Venom Market Dublin, July 30, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Australia Anti-Venom Market - Healthcare Demand & Forecast 2025-2033" report has been added to Anti Venom Market is expected to reach US$ 39.27 million by 2033 from US$ 22.18 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.55% from 2025 to 2033. Increasing rates of snake bites and scorpion stings, the introduction of beneficial government programs, and continuous industry advancements are some of the major factors propelling the market's expansion. The anti-venom business in Australia is essential to safeguarding the general public's health from the deadly and varied animals of the nation. The need for efficient anti-venom therapies is constantly high in areas with a high population of poisonous snakes and spiders. The industry functions through a network of organizations in charge of producing anti-venom, conducting research, and extracting venom. Together, these groups strive to guarantee a consistent flow of therapies that can save lives throughout the order to create anti-venom, venom from animals is usually collected and used to immunize host animals, such horses. The anti-venom is then made by harvesting and purifying antibodies. Although this approach hasn't altered much in decades, it still works well. The sector still confronts obstacles despite its shown success, such as high production costs and the requirement for anti-venoms that are appropriate for certain venom kinds. To overcome these obstacles and enhance results, research and innovation are still being conducted. Researchers are looking at universal anti-venoms that can cure various venom kinds as well as more effective manufacturing methods. Additionally, efforts are being made to make treatments more widely available, particularly in rural and isolated locations where bites are more common. In order to maintain national safety as the business develops, its capacity to address public health demands continues to be a top Factors Driving the Australia Anti Venom Market Growth High Incidence of Venomous BitesSome of the deadliest snakes and spiders in the world, such as the eastern brown snake, funnel-web spider, and inland taipan, may be found in Australia. A steady number of envenomation cases occur annually as a result of the widespread presence of these harmful species across the nation. The ongoing need for efficient anti-venom remedies is fueled by this public health concern. Particularly in rural and isolated areas where interactions are more frequent, hospitals and emergency services need to keep enough supplies on hand to react promptly to bites. Continued investment in the development and dissemination of anti-venoms is guaranteed by the necessity to treat both common and uncommon venom exposures. The need for dependable, quick-acting medical treatments like anti-venom therapy is growing as people become more aware of the dangers posed by local in Research and DevelopmentThe Australian anti-venom business is expanding due in large part to ongoing research and innovation. The goal of scientific research is to improve the accessibility, efficacy, and safety of therapies. The search for universal anti-venoms that can cure bites from many species is a significant area of development that might expedite emergency response and lower expenses. In order to boost productivity and lessen dependency on conventional animal-based vaccination, researchers are also trying to improve production techniques through the use of cutting-edge biotechnology. Collaboration among government organizations, pharmaceutical businesses, and academic institutions facilitates the creation of regionally customized solutions that are suited to Australia's distinct ecology. These developments guarantee that anti-venoms will continue to effectively combat changing venom characteristics and effectively and safely address public health Engagement and Public AwarenessIn Australia, the anti-venom business is greatly aided by community engagement. To properly catch and milk poisonous creatures, programs like wildlife parks' venom collecting campaigns need on volunteers and skilled specialists. In order to create medicines that can save lives, this gathered venom is essential. Public education initiatives also assist lower the number of fatalities and problems by increasing knowledge about the safety of snakes and spiders, first aid procedures, and the value of prompt medical attention. Raising awareness also promotes public and private funding for the study and manufacture of anti-venom. Australia guarantees a more proactive and robust approach to addressing the hazards posed by venomous animals by cultivating a culture of shared responsibility among scientists, healthcare professionals, and the general in the Australia Anti Venom Market High Production CostsThe high cost of manufacture is one of the main issues facing the Australian anti-venom business. The production of anti-venoms usually entails a time-consuming procedure that includes venom vaccination of animals (like horses) followed by the collection and purification of the antibodies. Manufacturing costs are increased by this labor-intensive and intricate process, which calls for specialized facilities and knowledgeable workers. Additionally, keeping a steady supply of venom from a variety of species raises the operational and logistical expenses. These costs can restrict access and frequently result in significant costs for healthcare providers, especially in rural or resource-poor locations where envenomation cases are more and Logistical ChallengesThe dissemination of anti-venoms is severely hampered by Australia's large and sometimes rural terrain. A large number of envenomation cases take place in isolated and rural areas with little access to healthcare services. It can be challenging to get temperature-sensitive anti-venoms to these locations in a timely and reliable manner, particularly in the event of severe weather or infrastructural failures. Coordinated logistics and significant money are needed to guarantee that remote clinics and hospitals have enough inventory. In these areas, inadequate access might cause treatment delays and worsen health outcomes. Improving response times and guaranteeing that all Australians, wherever they may be, have access to life-saving anti-venoms depend on resolving these logistical concerns. Company Analysis: Overview, Key Persons, Recent Developments, Revenue Analysis Bharat Serums and Vaccines Limited (BSV) Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH Boston Scientific Corporation CSL Limited. Merck KGaA Pfizer Inc. Haffkine Bio-Pharmaceutical Corporation Limited Key Attributes: Report Attribute Details No. of Pages 200 Forecast Period 2024 - 2033 Estimated Market Value (USD) in 2024 $22.18 Million Forecasted Market Value (USD) by 2033 $39.27 Million Compound Annual Growth Rate 6.5% Regions Covered Australia Key Topics Covered: 1. Introduction2. Research & Methodology2.1 Data Source2.1.1 Primary Sources2.1.2 Secondary Sources2.2 Research Approach2.2.1 Top-Down Approach2.2.2 Bottom-Up Approach2.3 Forecast Projection Methodology3. Executive Summary4. Market Dynamics4.1 Growth Drivers4.2 Challenges5. Australia Anti Venom Market5.1 Historical Market Trends5.2 Market Forecast6. Market Share Analysis6.1 By Type6.2 By Animal Type6.3 By End Users7. Type7.1 Polyvalent Anti-Venom7.2 Monovalent Anti-Venom8. Animal Type8.1 Snake8.2 Scorpion8.3 Spider8.4 Others9. End Users9.1 Clinics9.2 Hospitals9.3 Ambulatory Surgical Centers9.4 Others10. Porter's Five Forces Analysis10.1 Bargaining Power of Buyers10.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers10.3 Degree of Rivalry10.4 Threat of New Entrants10.5 Threat of Substitutes11. SWOT Analysis11.1 Strength11.2 Weakness11.3 Opportunity11.4 Threat12. Key Players Analysis For more information about this report visit About is the world's leading source for international market research reports and market data. We provide you with the latest data on international and regional markets, key industries, the top companies, new products and the latest trends. Attachment Australian Anti-Venom Market CONTACT: CONTACT: Laura Wood,Senior Press Manager press@ For E.S.T Office Hours Call 1-917-300-0470 For U.S./ CAN Toll Free Call 1-800-526-8630 For GMT Office Hours Call +353-1-416-8900Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Is There An Opportunity With CSL Limited's (ASX:CSL) 39% Undervaluation?
Is There An Opportunity With CSL Limited's (ASX:CSL) 39% Undervaluation?

Yahoo

time19-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Is There An Opportunity With CSL Limited's (ASX:CSL) 39% Undervaluation?

The projected fair value for CSL is AU$391 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of AU$239 suggests CSL is potentially 39% undervalued Analyst price target for CSL is US$314 which is 20% below our fair value estimate How far off is CSL Limited (ASX:CSL) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine. We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$2.79b US$3.31b US$3.80b US$4.47b US$4.75b US$4.98b US$5.20b US$5.40b US$5.59b US$5.78b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x7 Analyst x7 Analyst x7 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 4.87% Est @ 4.29% Est @ 3.89% Est @ 3.61% Est @ 3.41% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.5% US$2.6k US$2.9k US$3.2k US$3.5k US$3.5k US$3.4k US$3.3k US$3.3k US$3.2k US$3.1k ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$32b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.5%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$5.8b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (6.5%– 2.9%) = US$169b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$169b÷ ( 1 + 6.5%)10= US$90b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$122b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$239, the company appears quite undervalued at a 39% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at CSL as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.813. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for CSL Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average. Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Biotechs industry. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Biotechs market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market. Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Threat Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year. Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For CSL, we've put together three relevant factors you should consider: Risks: Take risks, for example - CSL has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of. Future Earnings: How does CSL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. — Investing narratives with Fair Values Vita Life Sciences Set for a 12.72% Revenue Growth While Tackling Operational Challenges By Robbo – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: A$2.42 · 0.1% Overvalued Vossloh rides a €500 billion wave to boost growth and earnings in the next decade By Chris1 – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: €78.41 · 0.1% Overvalued Intuitive Surgical Will Transform Healthcare with 12% Revenue Growth By Unike – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: $325.55 · 0.6% Undervalued View more featured narratives — Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

CSL initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley
CSL initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley

Yahoo

time21-03-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

CSL initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of CSL (CSLLY) with an Overweight rating and A$313 price target A 'solid revenue growth outlook' and margin recovery for CSL Behring underpin group EPS growth of about 13% per year over the next three years, the analyst tells investors. Easily identify stocks' risks and opportunities. Discover stocks' market position with detailed competitor analyses. Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>> See Insiders' Hot Stocks on TipRanks >> Read More on CSLLY: Questions or Comments about the article? Write to editor@ Arcturus Therapeutics and CSL's Kostaive COVID-19 vaccine approved in Europe CSL, Arcturus Therapeutics announce European Commission approval for Kostaive CSL Limited Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Challenges CSL Limited Reports Strong Half-Year Financial Performance Sign in to access your portfolio

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