Latest news with #CameronBrandt
Economic Times
11-08-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Cameron Brandt says Trump-Putin meeting unlikely to spark major market shifts
India is a major provider of affordable pharmaceuticals to the US, and people are trying to make sense of what that might mean both for India and for US healthcare policy. Synopsis Geopolitical events have limited long-term impact on fund flows, with investors often viewing dips as buying opportunities. While some money is slowly exiting the US amidst tariff negotiations, it's primarily moving into liquidity funds. India's fund inflows, previously recovering, have been impacted by new tariffs, particularly on pharmaceuticals, creating uncertainty in the market. "In terms of market impact, however, from where we sit—watching big universal mutual fund and ETF flows—geopolitics has really not been a meaningful long-term driver of flows for quite some time," says Cameron Brandt, EPFR Global. ADVERTISEMENT Firstly, let us talk about what you think will really come out of Trump and Putin's meeting in Alaska, because it seems like there could be some resolution to the war in Ukraine. Cameron Brandt: Well, the war has been going on for so long and so much has been invested in it by multiple actors that hoping for a resolution within just a week or so is overly optimistic. That said, there is definitely some fatigue on the Russian side, and Trump taking a stronger line might encourage them to look for a terms of market impact, however, from where we sit—watching big universal mutual fund and ETF flows—geopolitics has really not been a meaningful long-term driver of flows for quite some time. It will sometimes move the needle week to week, but partly because of the enormous post-Great Financial Crisis liquidity, investors have become conditioned to see geopolitical events as providing a short dip that they should buy into. So, I am not going to predict any enormous shifts, even if we get the best-case scenario next week. So, what is going to drive the movement of flows? Amidst all the tariff negotiations, are you already seeing money move out of the US, and is that money being deployed into other emerging markets? Or do you think people are still in just a wait-and-watch mode? Cameron Brandt: More wait-and-watch than redeploy. We are seeing a little bit of money move out of the US, and we are certainly seeing fund managers who have the option of reducing their exposure to the US—by this I mean global equity funds with a truly global mandate—they have certainly been trimming their exposure, but without a full-on rush to the exits. We are not seeing significant outflows from US funds. It has been more of a slow grind— a few billion here, a few billion there—and people are certainly on edge. But the moment there was some clarity on tariffs with the two key trading partners, the EU and Japan, there was definitely a pickup in flows back into dedicated US equity funds. I do think the tariff uncertainty is not helping, but as you mentioned before I joined you, US markets continue to move higher and the general market sentiment is that this too shall pass. ADVERTISEMENT Also, help us understand a little more about these fund flows we have seen. While you say that flows out of the US have not been very significant, flows into the US are also not looking very attractive right now. But you have seen significant outflows from China, Taiwan, and other markets. Help us understand where these fund flows are actually going and where India stands amid all of this, because we have also seen consistent FII selling in India. Cameron Brandt: To answer the first question: recently, funds have been moving into liquidity funds. Last week, US and Europe money market funds absorbed about a hundred billion dollars, so I think that at the moment is the main offramp for the US flows, four, five, six billion dollars represent only 0.01% of the total AUM of the US equity funds we track, so we are seeing a trend away from US assets, but it is not a very strong one—certainly not yet. In terms of emerging markets, no, we are not seeing much of a rotation toward them. There was a little thaw coming into the third quarter, and there has been more interest on the emerging market debt side than on emerging markets equity. ADVERTISEMENT Flows into dedicated India funds were recovering until the latest inflection point caused by higher tariffs due to India's consumption of Russian oil. What is worrying people more, in many ways, are the pharmaceutical tariffs. India is a major provider of affordable pharmaceuticals to the US, and people are trying to make sense of what that might mean both for India and for US healthcare there is more uncertainty to navigate, but once that uncertainty goes away, I think you will see more money come back into the US, and India—which was doing quite well until this happened—will probably start to see things pick up as well. ADVERTISEMENT (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) NEXT STORY
Time of India
11-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Cameron Brandt says Trump-Putin meeting unlikely to spark major market shifts
"In terms of market impact, however, from where we sit—watching big universal mutual fund and ETF flows—geopolitics has really not been a meaningful long-term driver of flows for quite some time," says Cameron Brandt , EPFR Global . Firstly, let us talk about what you think will really come out of Trump and Putin's meeting in Alaska, because it seems like there could be some resolution to the war in Ukraine. Cameron Brandt: Well, the war has been going on for so long and so much has been invested in it by multiple actors that hoping for a resolution within just a week or so is overly optimistic. That said, there is definitely some fatigue on the Russian side, and Trump taking a stronger line might encourage them to look for a solution. Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program In terms of market impact, however, from where we sit—watching big universal mutual fund and ETF flows—geopolitics has really not been a meaningful long-term driver of flows for quite some time. It will sometimes move the needle week to week, but partly because of the enormous post-Great Financial Crisis liquidity, investors have become conditioned to see geopolitical events as providing a short dip that they should buy into. So, I am not going to predict any enormous shifts, even if we get the best-case scenario next week. So, what is going to drive the movement of flows? Amidst all the tariff negotiations, are you already seeing money move out of the US, and is that money being deployed into other emerging markets? Or do you think people are still in just a wait-and-watch mode? Cameron Brandt: More wait-and-watch than redeploy. We are seeing a little bit of money move out of the US, and we are certainly seeing fund managers who have the option of reducing their exposure to the US—by this I mean global equity funds with a truly global mandate—they have certainly been trimming their exposure, but without a full-on rush to the exits. We are not seeing significant outflows from US funds. It has been more of a slow grind— a few billion here, a few billion there—and people are certainly on edge. But the moment there was some clarity on tariffs with the two key trading partners, the EU and Japan, there was definitely a pickup in flows back into dedicated US equity funds. I do think the tariff uncertainty is not helping, but as you mentioned before I joined you, US markets continue to move higher and the general market sentiment is that this too shall pass. Live Events Also, help us understand a little more about these fund flows we have seen. While you say that flows out of the US have not been very significant, flows into the US are also not looking very attractive right now. But you have seen significant outflows from China, Taiwan, and other markets. Help us understand where these fund flows are actually going and where India stands amid all of this, because we have also seen consistent FII selling in India. Cameron Brandt: To answer the first question: recently, funds have been moving into liquidity funds. Last week, US and Europe money market funds absorbed about a hundred billion dollars, so I think that at the moment is the main offramp for the money. Regarding US flows, four, five, six billion dollars represent only 0.01% of the total AUM of the US equity funds we track, so we are seeing a trend away from US assets, but it is not a very strong one—certainly not yet. In terms of emerging markets, no, we are not seeing much of a rotation toward them. There was a little thaw coming into the third quarter, and there has been more interest on the emerging market debt side than on emerging markets equity. Flows into dedicated India funds were recovering until the latest inflection point caused by higher tariffs due to India's consumption of Russian oil. What is worrying people more, in many ways, are the pharmaceutical tariffs. India is a major provider of affordable pharmaceuticals to the US, and people are trying to make sense of what that might mean both for India and for US healthcare policy. So, there is more uncertainty to navigate, but once that uncertainty goes away, I think you will see more money come back into the US, and India—which was doing quite well until this happened—will probably start to see things pick up as well.
Economic Times
30-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Dollar dip and global jitters create sweet spot for EMs: Cameron Brandt
"While flows into dedicated India funds remains well below the kind of levels we saw in 2023-24, they have been consistently positive now for over two months and India's combination of defensive characteristics and still strong growth is definitely making it one of the more consistent destinations for mutual fund flows," says Cameron Brandt, EPFR Global. ADVERTISEMENT It clearly seems like markets think that what we had last month in terms of all the geopolitical tensions, the start of the month seems to be the end of it all and all is hunky dory, at least going by the price action. Cameron Brandt: Well, we do seem to be in a period which fits the definition of that they frequently use for the weather in New England, which is if you do not like it, wait a couple of hours. But it is very much week to week at the moment certainly in terms of flows. And sentiment is very-very quick to change. I would characterise it as somewhat brittle. That said, there has definitely been a modest rotation in favour of emerging markets. We are seeing much stronger flows into the diversified gem funds and in a market where frankly most people are at least trying to work out what safe looks like. It has not been a bad period for India. While flows into dedicated India funds remains well below the kind of levels we saw in 2023-24, they have been consistently positive now for over two months and India's combination of defensive characteristics and still strong growth is definitely making it one of the more consistent destinations for mutual fund flows. What is importance of the dollar index in the overall scheme of things? I mean, in the long term if dollar remains below 100, could that really open the floodgate of further inflows into emerging markets? Cameron Brandt: Well, certainly, the health of the dollar and the impact that US monetary and fiscal policy are going to have is something that people are paying a lot of attention to. I heard some discussion before I joined you about indexes here hitting or testing record highs. But what we have been seeing in the flows is while there is a fairly strong support for US equity markets, especially through the diversified funds, it is not a particularly strong conviction. Allocations towards the US have been trending downwards recently. ADVERTISEMENT We have noticed that foreign domicile US equity and bond funds have lost a lot of momentum and have even seen periods of outflows. So, the dollar index is definitely something to watch. Sentiment towards the US is not in a particularly strong place, especially given what you might expect in an uncertain world where people would historically be pivoting to the US. So, just to connect the dots here, if you look at the flows, flows normally come to emerging markets when there is weakness in the dollar index and when there is weakness in the local markets which is the US market, the European market. We are staring at a situation where dollar is weak and US markets are strong. Is that a good enough setup for emerging markets to invite flows or it is a matter of time flows will start going back to America? Cameron Brandt: I think that the strength of the US market certainly does not feel terribly strong to me despite the lofty numbers. Some of the key indexes and we have been seeing, as I said, a modest but appreciable rotation towards emerging markets in recent weeks. ADVERTISEMENT So, in as much as anything is certain at the moment which is almost nothing, I do think that emerging markets are getting a closer and more positive look again. There is certainly a feeling that the dollar index is going to remain under pressure. If the tax bill goes through, we are looking at another tailwind for deficits here. So, I do not think you are going to see sort of full-on shifts, that just is not sort of the pattern we have been seeing in flows. But I certainly think that people are going to start to add to their emerging markets exposure during the summer. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
30-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Dollar dip and global jitters create sweet spot for EMs: Cameron Brandt
"While flows into dedicated India funds remains well below the kind of levels we saw in 2023-24, they have been consistently positive now for over two months and India's combination of defensive characteristics and still strong growth is definitely making it one of the more consistent destinations for mutual fund flows," says Cameron Brandt , EPFR Global . It clearly seems like markets think that what we had last month in terms of all the geopolitical tensions , the start of the month seems to be the end of it all and all is hunky dory, at least going by the price action. Cameron Brandt: Well, we do seem to be in a period which fits the definition of that they frequently use for the weather in New England, which is if you do not like it, wait a couple of hours. But it is very much week to week at the moment certainly in terms of flows. And sentiment is very-very quick to change. I would characterise it as somewhat brittle. That said, there has definitely been a modest rotation in favour of emerging markets . We are seeing much stronger flows into the diversified gem funds and in a market where frankly most people are at least trying to work out what safe looks like. It has not been a bad period for India. While flows into dedicated India funds remains well below the kind of levels we saw in 2023-24, they have been consistently positive now for over two months and India's combination of defensive characteristics and still strong growth is definitely making it one of the more consistent destinations for mutual fund flows. Live Events What is importance of the dollar index in the overall scheme of things? I mean, in the long term if dollar remains below 100, could that really open the floodgate of further inflows into emerging markets? Cameron Brandt: Well, certainly, the health of the dollar and the impact that US monetary and fiscal policy are going to have is something that people are paying a lot of attention to. I heard some discussion before I joined you about indexes here hitting or testing record highs. But what we have been seeing in the flows is while there is a fairly strong support for US equity markets , especially through the diversified funds, it is not a particularly strong conviction. Allocations towards the US have been trending downwards recently. We have noticed that foreign domicile US equity and bond funds have lost a lot of momentum and have even seen periods of outflows. So, the dollar index is definitely something to watch. Sentiment towards the US is not in a particularly strong place, especially given what you might expect in an uncertain world where people would historically be pivoting to the US. So, just to connect the dots here, if you look at the flows, flows normally come to emerging markets when there is weakness in the dollar index and when there is weakness in the local markets which is the US market, the European market. We are staring at a situation where dollar is weak and US markets are strong. Is that a good enough setup for emerging markets to invite flows or it is a matter of time flows will start going back to America? Cameron Brandt: I think that the strength of the US market certainly does not feel terribly strong to me despite the lofty numbers. Some of the key indexes and we have been seeing, as I said, a modest but appreciable rotation towards emerging markets in recent weeks. So, in as much as anything is certain at the moment which is almost nothing, I do think that emerging markets are getting a closer and more positive look again. There is certainly a feeling that the dollar index is going to remain under pressure. If the tax bill goes through, we are looking at another tailwind for deficits here. So, I do not think you are going to see sort of full-on shifts, that just is not sort of the pattern we have been seeing in flows. But I certainly think that people are going to start to add to their emerging markets exposure during the summer.
Economic Times
09-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Geopolitical tensions not yet a red flag for investors: Cameron Brandt
So, as I said earlier, people will certainly be watching, but in the short run, frankly, the fact that India's oil bill is going to get much cheaper, that seems to be where it is heading, will provide a pretty heavy counterweight to any geopolitical uncertainty. Given the current US administration, never say never. But I actually think that a lot of investors who used President Trump's first term as a template have certainly been expecting that after the sound and fury a somewhat more palatable midpoint would be reached. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "Historically, things have to get pretty bad before investors really get chased out of a market and while there will certainly be more caution until this gets resolved, I do not think it is going to completely reverse the flows that sort of India funds and sort of Indian asset markets in general I have seen in recent weeks," says Cameron Brandt Diminished rather than derailed is what I would say. I have just been looking at the latest week's numbers and while flows into dedicated India funds are not quite as strong as they have been, they are still I have been picking up is that at least for the moment investors and fund managers are putting more weight on the benefits to India of much cheaper oil than they are on what is or was until the latest about regarded as you know historically, things have to get pretty bad before investors really get chased out of a market and while there will certainly be more caution until this gets resolved, I do not think it is going to completely reverse the flows that sort of India funds and sort of Indian asset markets in general I have seen in recent the current US administration, never say never. But I actually think that a lot of investors who used President Trump's first term as a template have certainly been expecting that after the sound and fury a somewhat more palatable midpoint would be have certainly seen fixed income investors recover risk appetite over the past three weeks. Equity investors are still being somewhat cautious. It is not clear how much damage has been done and how much that damage will influence earnings for the remainder of the year, but certainly when I look at flows to fixed income funds, junk bond funds, mortgage backed funds, bank loan funds, and indeed emerging markets bond funds, all of those are starting to see money again after a pretty sharp hiatus in early.I do not. You mentioned sort of the geopolitical complexities and the fact that there more actors than just India and the global financial markets have been living with a version of that now for three years. The situation in Ukraine also puts Turkey somewhat close to the action. Russia has gravitated to China for support. Europe and US are feeding arms to varying degrees into Ukraine. So, intensely as you and your viewers feel the current situation and it certainly, it is not that it could not get worse, but financial markets have been living with an equally contentious and indeed long running geopolitical event with some pretty big actors behind the main as I said earlier, people will certainly be watching, but in the short run, frankly, the fact that India's oil bill is going to get much cheaper, that seems to be where it is heading, will provide a pretty heavy counterweight to any geopolitical uncertainty.
