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S&P 500 to hit 6,600 in 2025, but expect a correction on the way
S&P 500 to hit 6,600 in 2025, but expect a correction on the way

Yahoo

time11-02-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

S&P 500 to hit 6,600 in 2025, but expect a correction on the way

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is trading near record highs despite trade tension risks. Analysts indicate that for every five percentage point increase in the US tariff rate, the S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) estimates will decrease by 1% to 2% in 2025. NewEdge Wealth chief investment officer Cameron Dawson joins Morning Brief with Seana Smith and Brad Smith to discuss her market outlook. "We think the most important thing that has driven this bull market over the last two years is that 12-month forward EPS estimates have continued to climb higher, and so if you start raising doubts that that is capable of continuing to happen, that's where you start to see the potential for a more sideways, choppy, volatile market," Dawson says, explaining, "If 12-month forward earnings estimates level off, equity returns will also level off." The strategist notes that "even though fourth quarter earnings season has come in better than expected ... analysts for '25 and '26 have actually been cutting their numbers just slightly." She says the cuts are only 1% to 2%, "but it's definitely a change [to] this ever-rising estimate revision higher, which has, of course, supported the rally." Dawson outlines her base case for 2025 as "a wide, choppy range, which is to say that yes, [the S&P 500] can reach that 6,600 level at some point over the course of the year, but it's also likely that you could experience a 10% correction." To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. This post was written by Naomi Buchanan. Sign in to access your portfolio

US Futures Climb as Traders Await Apple Results: Markets Wrap
US Futures Climb as Traders Await Apple Results: Markets Wrap

Yahoo

time30-01-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

US Futures Climb as Traders Await Apple Results: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- US stock futures gained as investors looked ahead to Apple Inc.'s earnings for the next test of resilience in the technology sector. Manhattan's Morning Commute Time Drops With New Congestion Toll Trump's Federal Funding Pause Threatens State Financials Housing Aid Uncertain After Trump's Spending Freeze Memo US Students' Reading Scores Drop to Worst in More Than 20 Years Texas HOA Charged With Discrimination for Banning Section 8 Renters Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% and contracts on the S&P 500 added 0.3%. Apple is expected to post record results when the company delivers its quarterly report later today. Tech stocks continued to power ahead in premarket trading, with International Business Machines Corp. jumping 8% and Meta Platforms Inc. rising on hopes for future artificial intelligence gains. Tesla Inc. climbed as much as 4.1% amid investor optimism about the company's robotaxi business and AI prospects. The technological arms race has defined global markets this week after Chinese startup DeepSeek raised the stakes with an AI model that costs a fraction of the price of its US competitors. That put a question mark over the spending and investment plans of Silicon Valley firms in the run up to the earnings announcements, sparking a market slump on Monday. 'Investors are still willing to dream the dream and have this blank check mentality when it comes to AI and capex spending,' Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at Newedge Wealth, told Bloomberg TV. 'The question that we have is what the return on invested capital will be for a commoditized product?' Microsoft Corp. shares bucked the upbeat mood, falling 3.9% in early trading, as the firm struggles to build enough data centers to handle AI demand. Apple's Flagging AI Hopes Get Revival From DeepSeek's Emergence The yield on 10-year US Treasuries was down two basis points at 4.50% after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday, adopting a 'wait and see' approach with inflation still above the 2% target. Now attention turns to the European Central Bank, which is expected to cut rates by a quarter-point later Thursday to revive the sluggish eurozone economy. European government bonds gained after gross domestic product figures came in weaker than expected for Germany and France. The Stoxx 600 Europe index rose 0.6%, hitting a record high, after a slew of strong earnings. 'The divergence trade is alive and well with a widening gap between European and US growth expectations that has translated into a much more dovish outlook for the ECB relative to the Fed,' said Daniel Murray, Zurich-based chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management. ECB Cut All But Certain With Price Goal in View: Decision Guide In currencies, the yen gained as much as 0.6% against the dollar as fast money traders lined up bets on the currency, according to an Asia-based FX trader. Oil edged lower as investors waited for clarity on US trade policy, after Donald Trump's pick for commerce secretary said Canada and Mexico, the country's top crude suppliers, may avoid high tariffs. Key events this week: Eurozone ECB rate decision, consumer confidence, unemployment, GDP, Thursday US GDP, jobless claims, Thursday Apple, Deutsche Bank earnings, Thursday US personal income & spending, PCE inflation, employment cost index, Friday Some of the main moves in markets: Stocks S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 8:02 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6% The MSCI World Index rose 0.1% Currencies The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0402 The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2434 The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 154.17 per dollar Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $104,934.4 Ether rose 2.5% to $3,219.87 Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.50% Germany's 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.52% Britain's 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.56% Commodities West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,782.85 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation. --With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Winnie Hsu, Richard Henderson and Divya Patil. Indy Pass, the Anti-Vail Seasonal Ski Ticket, Is Gaining Fans What America's Tech Billionaires Really Bought When They Backed Donald Trump Musk Pitches New Narrative as Tesla Sales Fall The Internet Almost Killed Barnes & Noble, Then Saved It Forget Factories, Small US Towns Want Buc-ee's Gas Stations ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio

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