Latest news with #Canadi
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
David Rosenberg: Latest labour data shows Canadians are begging the Bank of Canada for renewed rate relief
The industry-wide Canadian employment data for March were a complete dud, with the number of jobs sliding 54,100 after a 40,200 slump in February, according to Statistics Canada's Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. And remember, the Labour Force Survey for April showed virtually no rebound at all. The workweek was flat for the 10th time in the past 11 months and down 0.2 per cent month over month in the goods-producing sector. There can really be little doubt that the Canadian economy has entered a recession, and the Bank of Canada would be well advised to move out of the dugout and onto the baseball field. Interestingly, and rather disturbingly, you can't even pin the trade battle on this horrible report because the manufacturing sector only posted a modest decline (1,800). The vast majority of the employment loss was in the services sector (59,500). This came on the heels of a 32,700 contraction in February to mark the largest back-to-back declines since the spring of 2020. The combined 3,500 slippage in manufacturing and transportation/warehousing is a sure sign that the Canadian dollar rally has been both problematic and worrisome when it comes to aggravating the downturn in these export-oriented industries. Meanwhile, the heavy losses in real estate, construction, retail and finance are very important because these are the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy and they are begging Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem to provide more rate relief. The fact that accommodation/food services (basically the leisure-hospitality space), arguably the most domestically economic-sensitive segment of the economy and the heartbeat of consumer discretionary spending, could sag 8,400 and falter now in each of the past three months is a telling statistic regarding the acceleration in financial stresses in the household sector. This was on full display in the latest bank earnings numbers, where the main feature was the continued increase in loan loss reserve provisioning. The year-over-year trend in industry employment has cooled off dramatically from 3.5 per cent two years ago to 1.3 per cent a year ago to 0.2 per cent currently. Outside the 2020 pandemic recession and the post-COVID-19 period in early 2021, you have to go back to the early months of 2010, when the Canadian economy was crawling out of the great recession, to see the 12-month pace of employment this weak. Another message to the Bank of Canada to get moving again. One thing is for sure: there was no inflation coming out of this latest report, with average hourly earnings for salaried workers as flat as a beavertail, and that followed a 1.6 per cent month-over-month February downturn. Hourly employees actually saw a 0.2 per cent month-over-month wage pullback on top of a stagnant February. The investment implications are clear: go short the Canadian dollar and go long the front end of the Bank of Canada bond curve. While it seems a tad bizarre to sound so downbeat on the Canadian economy at a time when the equity market has tested all-time highs, make no mistake, the local macro backdrop is on very shaky ground. The divergence goes to show how loose the relationship is between stock valuations and the economy: the Toronto Stock Exchange is not gross domestic product. The pace of real activity right now is 1.6 per cent year on year. That doesn't sound so bad until you consider that population growth has come in at 2.7 per cent, so that generates a minus 0.9 per cent year-over-year trend in real per capita economic activity. Less than 60 per cent of Canadians who entered the labour market in the past 12 months in search of a job have managed to find one. The ranks of the unemployed have ballooned 14 per cent over the past year to 1.55 million — not exactly the definition of economic vitality. David Rosenberg: Carney is a fresh face but faces old Liberal problems including a looming recession David Rosenberg: Bank of Canada has made a big mistake by being so timid Ergo, the unemployment rate has climbed to 6.9 per cent from 6.2 per cent a year ago and 5.1 per cent two years ago. A 180-basis point increase over a two-year period in the jobless rate in the past has been a sure-fire recession indicator (though the economists at the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development have put on a happy face in this regard). The broadest form of unemployment, the R-8 measure, which includes all forms of idle labour resources, has risen to 9.2 per cent from 8.4 per cent a year ago and 7.2 per cent two years ago. That is a ton of slack and that's something the Bank of Canada should be devoting its attention to because no way, no how, do we squeeze any inflation juice down the road out of this lemon. David Rosenberg is founder and president of independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. To receive more of David Rosenberg's insights and analysis, you can sign up for a complimentary, one-month trial on the Rosenberg Research website. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Cision Canada
27-05-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
THRONE SPEECH MISSES THE MARK FOR WORKERS
Statement by , President of the Canadian Labour Congress, on the Government's Throne Speech OTTAWA, ON, May 27, 2025 /CNW/ - Workers expected an ambitious plan to strengthen our economy, create jobs, and defend communities against Trump's agenda, however, today's throne speech provided none of this. Workers need the federal government to have a plan, backed by bold investment and action, to deliver good union jobs, stronger public services, and economic security for all. Canadian families continue to bear the brunt of a continued affordability crisis and Trump's economic chaos. For far too many workers, wages are not keeping up with rising costs. Families are facing an increasingly unattainable housing market, and many are being left behind by a strained Employment Insurance system and an under-resourced public health care system. At the same time, a rising unemployment rate is making it even harder for workers to find stable, secure jobs and support their families. Prioritizing tax cuts for the wealthy over support for those who need it most signals a step away from the bold action needed to tackle the trade war, housing crisis, strained health care, and the climate emergency. While we welcome the government's intention to "bring down costs for Canadians", we are deeply concerned by a Throne Speech that emphasizes deregulation, cost-cutting, and fiscal restraint over meaningful investment in people and the services they rely on. The Throne Speech's proposals to eliminate internal trade barriers fail to raise the bar for workers across the board and instead risk weakening standards and protections and undermining provincial autonomy. Unions must have a seat at the table in these conversations because workers cannot be an afterthought when shaping Canada's future. The government must prioritize the creation of good jobs and a globally competitive industrial strategy, but not if it comes at the cost of public oversight or by shortchanging the workers who build our economy. It must begin with investments in infrastructure, clean energy, manufacturing, and care services that create good union jobs and support communities. Tinkering with regulations or shrinking government operations is no substitute for the real, sustained investment that working families need. On housing, we urge the government to go beyond incentives for private developers and commit to building publicly funded, truly affordable housing. Every Canadian deserves a safe place to call home, not just market-driven promises of "affordability." The government's commitment to attracting global talent is important, but it must go hand-in-hand with strong labour protections, fair wages, and a renewed focus on training and retaining workers already here. Immigration policy must be grounded in equity and sustainability, not as a cover for suppressing wages or undercutting working conditions. Lastly, we are particularly alarmed by the suggestion of cutting public services at a time when Canadians, reeling from Trump's trade war, need more support, not less. Limiting investments now would only deepen inequality and strain already overburdened systems like health care and EI. Similarly, vague promises to use AI to boost productivity must be met with clear commitments to job protection, quality public services, and strong regulations to ensure technology works for and with workers, not against them. Workers are watching. This moment calls for courageous leadership, not cost-cutting or complacency. The government must work with Canada's unions to raise wages, strengthen public health care, implement universal, publicly funded Pharmacare, modernize Employment Insurance, and ensure that no worker is left behind. It's time for this government to choose: bold leadership, or missed opportunity. Workers were front and centre during the election, but left out of the Throne Speech. We're ready to work with this government, but make no mistake: if it fails workers, we won't hesitate to hold it to account.
National Observer
13-05-2025
- Business
- National Observer
Is Mark Carney's cabinet 'transformational'? Does anyone care?
For Mark Carney and the members of his team, it was a big day. On Tuesday, ministers were sworn in at Rideau Hall to a trimmed down and reorganized cabinet, with 28 full members and 10 second-tier members, known as secretaries of state. Each prime minister likes to put their own mark on their ministry to distinguish themselves from their predecessors. It's spring! Renewal! Really, it's a kind of ornate — substantive if we're lucky — way of redecorating. Will anybody outside Ottawa or the small clique of political media watchers care? Maybe. Sort of. But not really. As Carney walked into Rideau Hall, a reporter shouted at him 'Lots of changes, eh?' which must have felt like a victory in itself: the government wants to signal that it's new and different, not a mere holdover from the Justin Trudeau years. The 2015 precedent of a gender-balanced cabinet remains, but the faces have changed, mostly. Many ministers from the Trudeau era are gone. At national defence, Bill Blair is out. Natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson is gone. Carney leadership rival Karina Gould is also gone. Ditto Ahmed Hussen, Jenna Sudds, and Nathaniel Esrkine Smith. The cabinet features 13 new members of Parliament. Eleven ministers from Carney's first, short-lived cabinet, unveiled in March, are off to the backbench. Some Trudeau stalwarts remain, leading critics to say it's the same old government, which is untrue. Dominic LeBlanc, a competent fixer and all-purpose leader, remains, heading US-Canada trade and intergovernmental affairs. François-Philippe Champagne is still finance minister. Chrystia Freeland, also a Carney leadership rival and the woman who set this whole affair off by knifing Trudeau last December, is transport minister. Mélanie Joly and Anita Anand have swapped jobs, the former heading to the industry ministry and the latter to foreign affairs. For those of us who treat cabinet swearing-in ceremonies, and the speculation, prognostication, and hot takes that accompany them, as melodrama, this is all a big deal. It's like the Oscars for people with a vitamin D deficiency. Pundits will fight over whether this new cabinet is new enough: there are unfamiliar names, there are some familiar names. For the most part, those questions will be decided by one's priors: whether they liked Trudeau, whether they like Carney, how they feel about the particular ministers who are in, or the would-be ministers who've been left out. But most Canadians just want their problems solved. Housing is too expensive. Prices are too high. They don't make enough money. The oceans are boiling and the ice caps are melting. They think a secretary of state is someone who gets coffee for the governor in Michigan. As the cabinet was announced, pollster David Coletto of Abacus Data shared some research his firm carried out in 2024. He found that the vast majority of Canadians had no idea who top cabinet ministers were. Couldn't even pick them out of a lineup. While 98 per cent of Canadians could name Justin Trudeau and 66 per cent could name Pierre Poilievre, the most recognizable cabinet minister was Chrystia Freeland at 39 per cent, followed by Mélanie Joly at 20 per cent. The numbers kept dropping from there. Only 4 per cent could name Dominc Leblanc. Of course, at the time, only 7 per cent could name Mark Carney. (That number is probably higher today.) As the cabinet was announced, pollster David Coletto of Abacus Data shared some research his firm carried out in 2024. He found that the vast majority of Canadians had no idea who top cabinet ministers were. Couldn't even pick them out of a lineup. Regardless of who can name whom, most Canadians don't know or care about much beyond how they are faring in their day-to-day lives, how they feel at their workplace or in their community, what they feel when they check their bank balance. The work of sorting out the details is utterly critical, but it's background noise for normal people. What s hould we make of the details, though? That Canada now has a minister for artificial intelligence, former broadcaster and political newcomer Evan Solomon, could be a sign the government is taking digital transformation seriously. It could also end up being meaningless, or worse. Gregor Robertson, the former mayor of Vancouver, is now housing minister, which for those who lived in Vancouver during his time at the helm — a 10-year period over which home prices more than doubled — may seem, let's say, discordant with addressing the problem. The labour ministry has been downgraded to a secretary of state, an ominous demotion. By next week, the drama of cabinet day will have died down and we'll turn to the return of the Commons, the Throne Speech, and the real struggles that will be shaped by cabinet ministers who Canadians don't know and never will. The focus will be on Carney, a man of tremendous capacity, but one who is about to undertake the most difficult task of his life, and one of the most difficult tasks there is: governing Canada. It's not obvious this team is up to the task, though they deserve a chance to prove they are. Canadians will judge the results, whether they can name those responsible for them or not.
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
This Rookie Politician Just Ousted Canada's Conservative Leader From Parliament
OTTAWA — Bruce Fanjoy has the ultimate underdog story in Canadian politics. He's a stay-at-home dad who decided to run as a Liberal in the conservative stronghold of Carleton, an electoral district just outside of Ottawa made up of farmers and suburbanites. Oh, and his opponent was the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, who had held the seat for over 20 years, and was running to become prime minister of Canada. Then Fanjoy began door knocking, starting in 2023, and wearing through two pairs of his sneakers and a pair of boots. People told him he was never going to win, and it was a lost cause. But Fanjoy knew better — especially after Donald Trump started ramping up his threats against Canada. 'There was a sea change in what I was hearing at the doors,' Fanjoy said in an interview with POLITICO Magazine. On election night in Canada, Poilievre didn't just lose his bid for prime minister — the party's 25-point lead evaporating in the blink of an eye — he lost his seat in Parliament. It was a stunning upset, with Fanjoy winning by over 4,300 votes, which helped form the Liberal Party's minority government and left the Conservative Party of Canada scrambling over who will lead them. 'If there was one surprise that I had in this campaign in Carleton, it's that Pierre barely showed up,' Fanjoy said. 'After all his time as MP, he took the riding for granted, and nobody likes to be taken for granted.' This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. A lot of people were very skeptical you could win. Why do you think you had a chance? We ran a positive campaign, in remarkable contrast to Pierre's style of politics. We attracted a small army of volunteers. As this campaign carried on, more and more and more people believed in what we were doing and that was shown on election night. But we knew it was there for a long time, and it was still very, very gratifying to see it come together. So, how did you beat him? We outworked him. We were present. We were all over the riding. We were connecting with voters. People appreciated the fact that we were present and that we offered a positive alternative to Pierre. If there was one surprise that I had in this campaign in Carleton, it's that Pierre barely showed up. After all his time as MP, he took the riding for granted, and nobody likes to be taken for granted. The last time we talked, you compared your mission to defeat Pierre Poilievre as an opportunity for Canadians to take down their version of Donald Trump. Do you feel like you saved the country from 'Maple MAGA'? I wouldn't go that far. I know that what we did was very important to Canadians, and that's why, not only in Carleton, but the whole country was behind what we were doing. Across Canada, people see that Pierre is too far right, and that made people very uncomfortable, including people who have traditionally voted conservative in this riding. This became a referendum on Pierre Poilievre. The result is very clear that Canadians want responsible leadership. They want serious leadership. And this is no time to be flirting with the kind of politics that we're seeing down to the south. You previously said you went door-knocking five days a week. What were you hearing on those doorsteps? There was a sea change in what I was hearing at the doors when we moved into 2025. Canadians recognized we were facing another U.S. administration led by Donald Trump and some of his hostile rhetoric toward Canada, our economy and our political sovereignty. And under the change in leadership of the Liberal Party in Mark Carney, we couldn't have anyone better to meet this critical moment in our history. People in Carleton could see that. Carleton was ready to move on from Pierre Poilievre. They're very familiar with his style of politics, and quite frankly, a lot of people had enough of it. What came to mind when you learned you were about to win? I was just enormously happy for all the volunteers that have worked so hard and poured their heart and soul into this campaign. It was humbling to see hundreds upon hundreds of people arrive at a campaign office wanting to help. The volunteers are the story of this campaign. We had people who were stepping up for the first time in their lives to get active in a campaign. In some cases, people came considerable distances because they saw this as the most important election of our lifetimes. And they recognized that Carleton played a super-sized role in what direction this country was heading. Has Pierre Poilievre called to congratulate you? I haven't heard from him. I don't know that he will. That's up to him. What would you say to him if you did talk? I would say thank you for your call. To be quite honest, I don't know what I would say to him, it would probably depend a great deal on what he said to me. People run against each other in politics, this is nothing new, and this is a time where we just have to come together as Canadians, and that includes Canadian parliamentarians. The times are too important for people who are putting their party ahead of their country. This is not a time for that nonsense. Has Mark Carney personally reached out since you won? We are going to be talking very soon. He's been very busy, and I don't expect he got much rest the other night, but I'll be talking to him. How do you expect the Liberals will govern as they face down Donald Trump? They will govern with principle. They will govern in the best interests of Canadians. This Liberal government is filled with people who are committed to their communities and committed to this country. We'll come together. We'll work with other parliamentarians. But Mark Carney is a recognized economic leader, and we're going to do what's necessary to support Canadians, Canadian industry, Canadian workers and families to weather this storm. You're a first-time politician. Are you worried about what politics could do to you or change in you? No, I know who I am and I'm going to be true to my values. I always will. I grew up playing competitive sports, I had a career in the private sector, so I understand what it's like to compete. I know that there will be challenging moments, but that's because we have big issues to deal with. My focus is on getting to work.
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Carney won Canada. Saving the country from Trump won't be so easy
Mark Carney has engineered one of the most unlikely victories in political history, saving Canada's Liberal Party from near oblivion and going from the outskirts of politics to prime minister in a matter of months. But the former Bank of England governor's biggest challenge still lies ahead: protecting Canada's economy from Donald Trump. Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed Canada will become the 'cherished 51st state' and levied heavy tariffs on the US's northern neighbour. In his victory speech Carney said Trump 'is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never happen'. Credit: Reuters As it stands, the US has placed a blanket 10pc tariff on Canadian goods. There is also a 25pc levy on all aluminium and steel imports from Canada, though the Trump administration exempts products covered by the USMCA trade deal that covers the US, Canada and Mexico. In response, Canada has imposed tariffs of around £32bn on US goods. Carney and Trump have spoken since this week's Canadian election and agreed 'on the importance of Canada and the US working together – as independent, sovereign nations – for their mutual betterment', the prime minister's office said. But Carney said on the campaign trail that the return of Trump meant Canada's economy must fundamentally change. 'What is clear is that our trade and our security relations are too reliant on the United States. We must diversify,' the prime minister told reporters in London. In February, Mary Ng, the then trade minister, visited Australia with a delegation of over 140 businesses as the government sought to build closer ties with the country. Prior to calling the snap election, Carney travelled to the UK and France in March to meet with both Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron as he emphasised his country's bond with Europe. But with around 75pc of Canada's exports heading to the US – compared to Britain's 16pc – diversifying will prove easier said than done. 'It's like separating London from Oxford,' says Daniel Trefler, a professor at the University of Toronto. 'We're so integrated in so many dimensions.' Many of Canada's key sectors, such as steel production and the automotive industry, are closely tied to American businesses – with supply chains that criss-cross the border. Dozens of companies have factories in Canada that ship directly to the US. While Trump wants to end that practice and force jobs into the US, Prof Trefler is sceptical. 'Toyota is not going to suddenly close its plants in Ontario and move them to Ohio because of a 25pc tariff. They're going to have to be sure that a tariff is going to be staying for like a decade before they're going to make a decision like that.' In the meantime, Canada's economy will suffer. The OECD has warned that the trade war will hit growth in Canada and slashed its forecasts for the country. It expects the Canadian economy to grow by just 0.7pc in 2025 and 2026, compared with its previous forecast of 2pc for both years. A lot is at stake for Canadian households. Modelling by Deloitte Canada has estimated that the impact of tariffs from the US is set to cost the average Canadian $2,000 (£1,500) annually. 'There's no doubt that tariffs are already having a significant cost to the economy, just in the uncertainty that they've injected into investment decisions around the continent,' says Lars Osberg, a professor of economics at Dalhousie University, Halifax. Carney is not the first Canadian prime minister to attempt to shift the country's trade away from its reliance on the US. 'That's been a strategy which Canadian governments have tried to follow for maybe 70 years,' Osberg says. 'Back in the 1950s, under the Conservatives of [former prime minister John] Diefenbaker, there was a big push to try and resurrect some of the trade with the UK – that had been so prominent during the 1930s. But it didn't really amount to much.' Britain is likely to be central to Carney's diversification efforts this time around too. The UK is already Canada's third-largest trading partner. Canada exported £10.3bn in goods and services to the UK in the 12 months to the end of September 2024, with crude oil, inorganic chemicals and aircraft among its biggest exports. Trefler says: 'It seems like there is room for Carney to lead a massive trade delegation to the UK to try and promote trade between the two countries … There is plenty of room for something like that without having to write new agreements. 'I'm not sure that there's any other country like the UK which has a kind of social stability that we would be looking for in a trading partner.' QEA Tech, based in Markham, Ontario, is an example of a Canadian business targeting the UK for growth. The environmental software business has begun working on projects in Britain and Germany as part of efforts to find new markets outside of the US. Peyvand Melati, the company's chief executive, says: 'Recent events obviously bring the thought that we need to expand internationally. 'Traditionally we have relied on the largest trade partner which is the US, as it is the nearest large market that is accessible for us. But the recent uncertainty brings to mind that we need to look outside of North America.' Reshaping Canada's trading relationships will be a difficult, years-long task. For now, perhaps the easiest route to boost Canada's economy would be to smooth things over with Trump. Frédérique Carrier, the head of investment strategy at Royal Bank of Canada Wealth Management, says: 'A stable government will be a relief for financial markets and should put Canada in a stronger position to negotiate trade issues with the US. We expect the new government to start to engage with the US administration to diffuse trade tensions.' She added that the new government was likely to focus on stimulus efforts in a bid to help the Canadian economy manage the impact of the recently imposed tariffs, with the county's fiscal deficit expected to rise as a result. De-escalation may be the easiest route but Carney is still using fighting talk. At a rally in Windsor, Ontario, on Saturday, he deployed a ice hokey metaphor that he used repeatedly on the campaign trail: 'We didn't ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops their gloves.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. 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