08-05-2025
How the odds are stacked against a conservative pope
When Francis was elected as Pope in 2013, he was, in betting terms, a rank outsider.
The Argentine cardinal was up against the likes of Italian Angelo Scola (odds 3/1), Canadian Marc Ouellet (6/1) and Ghanaian Peter Turkson (11/4).
Some bookies had the soon-to-be-elected Francis as low as 40th.
Ultimately, Francis was the surprise liberal choice among a field of moderate-to-conservative contenders. Now, the inverse is true: a liberal candidate is favoured to win. A conservative resurgence, however, is far from unlikely.
Papal candidates, or papabili to borrow the Latin term for likely contenders for the Bishop of Rome, tend to lean conservative.
Analysis of the theological and social views of 24 papabili, as determined by the College of Cardinal's Report, shows that two cardinals in contention are openly in favour of same-sex blessings, ordaining female deacons or reassessing the Church's view on birth control.
Eight support communion for divorcees and four are in favour of ending priestly celibacy. There is wider support for placing climate change at the centre of the Church's teachings though, with 11 out of 24 in favour.
Using the report cards, we can create a papabili's 'liberal-conservative' view on a scale of -10 for the most conservative and 10 for the most liberal.
On this metric, four of the 24 papabili emerge as more liberal than Pope Francis. Six receive a score of minus five or lower, indicating strongly expressed conservative views.
This includes Cardinal Robert Sarah, the Guinean who has expressed concern over migration to Europe, and German Gerhard Ludwig Müller, who has warned of a schism if the Vatican does not choose an 'orthodox' pope.
Despite this, all three of the leading candidates are in the liberal camp, according to the bookies.
These include favourite Pietro Parolin, who is viewed by many as a continuity candidate and currently has implied odds of 33 per cent. He has liberalising views on engaging the Church with its members and, whilst against same-sex marriage, has cautiously welcomed the blessings of gay couples.
He is closely followed by Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, who has criticised the use of harsh language to describe LGBT Catholics. He has also called for a modern context to the Humanae vitae, the doctrine that outlines the Church's view on contraception.
A continuity pope makes sense because Francis selected 108 of the 135 cardinals able to vote.
Unsurprisingly, many of these cardinals tend to be more liberal. The College of Cardinals Report shows that, on average, those chosen by Pope Francis have similar stances to him.
These include Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy (12 per cent chance of winning) and Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg (a slimmer 4 per cent chance).
However, early betting odds in papal conclaves can ultimately mean very little – with Pope Francis being just one cautionary tale.
An analysis from academics at the University of Nottingham outlining the success of 500 years of papal betting shows that the markets have a 'patchy record'. The favourite at the start certainly may not be at the end.
In 2005, Paddy Power took £200,000 on the election – 'the biggest non-sports betting market of all time' – but it was not until after three ballots that Cardinal Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI) became the favourite.
For Catholics wanting a return to a strict interpretation of Church doctrine, this could be the chance.
One move Pope Francis made was making the cardinal electors look more like the flock.
A hundred years ago, two-thirds of electors were Italian. Today, this has fallen to 12.6 per cent. For the first time, fewer than 40 per cent come from Europe at all.
Instead, there has been an increase in the number from Asia, Africa and South America. About 45 per cent of electors are from the 'global south', a massive change from the 2005 conclave, when just 30 per cent were from there.
Democratically, these changes make sense. Today, fewer than a quarter of the world's one billion plus Catholics come from Europe. About 70 per cent come from the world's poorest regions.
This change in composition could influence the conclave's views on the way it discusses issues such as climate change, poverty and migration. Pope Francis's compassionate stance on society was undoubtedly the product of working in the poorest districts of Buenos Aires.
However, the global makeup of the Catholic Church highlights the key social differences within.
In every Western European country, Catholics want the Vatican to recognise legal gay marriage, according to a 2017 Pew Research poll. This falls to 43 per cent in Brazil, the world's largest Catholic country. No similar polling exists for Asia or Africa, but some African cardinals have been particularly critical of Pope Francis's stance on equal marriage.
However, across Latin America – where 40 per cent of Catholics live – there has been a liberalising shift over the past decade on issues such as female priests, birth control and celibacy, according to Pew Research.
Pope Francis epitomised this cautious progression. He preached compassion and understanding on these delicate social issues, but stopped short of a complete rewrite of doctrine.
Few cardinals eligible to vote support a move beyond what Pope Francis has already done. A conservative or liberal jolt could ultimately disturb the balance needed with a truly global and divided Church.
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