Latest news with #CarolynRogers
CBC
7 days ago
- Business
- CBC
Bank of Canada officials speak after interest rate announcement
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem and senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers give a statement and answer questions about the central bank's interest rate announcement.
Reuters
16-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
FULL TEXT-Bank of Canada held rates as it seeks more information on tariffs, says Governor
OTTAWA, April 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada released the following statement by Governor Tiff Macklem on Wednesday: "Good morning. I'm pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss today's policy announcement and our April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). "Today, Governing Council maintained the policy interest rate at 2.75% after seven consecutive rate cuts. "The Canadian economy ended 2024 in good shape. Inflation had been close to the 2% target since last summer. The substantial interest rate reductions since last spring had boosted household spending, economic growth had picked up and many businesses told us the economy had renewed momentum. "Since then, the dramatic protectionist shift in US trade policy and the chaotic delivery have increased uncertainty, roiled financial markets, diminished global growth prospects and raised inflation expectations. "The path for US trade policy remains highly unpredictable. There is also considerable uncertainty about the impacts of a trade war on our economy. "At our monetary policy decisions in both January and March, Governing Council reduced the policy interest rate a further 25 basis points as threats of higher US tariffs intensified. "A lot has happened since our March decision five weeks ago. But the future is no clearer. We still do not know what tariffs will be imposed, whether they'll be reduced or escalated, or how long all of this will last. "At this meeting, we decided to hold our policy rate unchanged as we gain more information about both the path forward for US tariffs and their impacts. "Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war. What we can and must do is ensure that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability. "Our focus will be on assessing the downward pressure on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressure from higher costs. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled. "Faced with pervasive uncertainty, Governing Council will proceed carefully, with particular attention to the risks. That means being less forward-looking than usual until the situation is clearer. It also means we are prepared to act decisively if incoming information points clearly in one direction. "Let me now turn to what we're seeing in the Canadian economy. "Incoming data are increasingly pointing to a considerable slowing in business investment and household spending. After expanding 5.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024, final domestic demand is expected to be roughly flat in the first quarter of 2025. Supported by a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP growth in the first quarter is forecast to be about 1.8%. But with exports expected to decline, second-quarter growth will be much weaker. "In the labour market, job growth was picking up at the end of last year, but trade tensions are disrupting this recovery. Employment was flat in February, down in March, and many businesses report they are scaling back their hiring plans. "Inflation in Canada has risen from 1.8% at the time of the January Report to 2.3% in March, reflecting the end of the GST/HST holiday and some rebound in goods price inflation. Elevated shelter price inflation continues to ease but goods price inflation rose more than shelter price inflation came down. The prices for imported goods have been boosted by the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Some businesses have also said suppliers are proactively raising prices in anticipation of future tariffs. Near-term inflation expectations have also risen because households and businesses expect tariffs will raise prices. "The very near-term outlook for inflation is relatively clear. The elimination of the consumer carbon tax on April 1 will reduce CPI inflation by about 0.7 percentage points for one year. Lower global oil prices will also pull inflation down, so total CPI inflation is expected to be about 1½% in April. "Looking beyond the very near term, what happens to the Canadian economy and inflation depends critically on US trade policy, which remains highly unpredictable. Given this uncertainty, point forecasts for economic growth and inflation are of little use as a guide to anything. So in this MPR, we instead present two illustrative scenarios that span a wide range of possible paths for US trade policy. In the report, we call these scenarios 1 and 2. "In Scenario 1, we assume most of the new tariffs get negotiated away, but the process is unpredictable, and businesses and households remain cautious. GDP growth in this scenario stalls in the second quarter, then expands only moderately. Inflation drops below the 2% target for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, both because of the end of the consumer carbon tax and a weak economy. "In Scenario 2, we assume a long-lasting global trade war. The economic consequences are severe. Canada's GDP contracts in the second quarter and the economy is in recession for a year. Growth gradually returns in 2026 but remains soft through 2027 as US tariffs permanently reduce Canada's potential output and lower our standard of living. Inflation rises above 3% in mid-2026 as tariffs, countermeasures and shifts in supply chains raise costs, pushing up many prices. Inflation then eases as weak demand limits ongoing inflationary pressures. "To be clear, these are only two of many possible scenarios, and even these do not span the possible outcomes. Governing Council agreed that where US trade policy is relative to scenarios 1 and 2 is a moving target. The April 2 announcement put the situation closer to Scenario 2, but the partial rollback on April 9 and new exemptions in recent days have moved trade policy back towards the middle of the two scenarios. We don't know what's coming next, and US policy could well move back and forth before the situation is clearer. "As we considered monetary policy, we used these two scenarios to reflect the uncertainty about US trade policy. We also considered risks related to the impacts of tariffs — these could be smaller and slower, or bigger and faster than captured in the scenarios. "What happens with inflation will depend importantly on what happens with tariffs. And if we find ourselves in a protracted trade war, we will see opposing pressures on inflation. A weaker economy will put downward pressure on inflation and higher costs from tariffs will put upward pressure. Both the uncertainty about tariffs and their opposing forces on inflation make forecasting inflation especially difficult at this time. "Moving forward, we will pay close attention to the risks and uncertainties to the Canadian economy and inflation. These include: the extent to which higher tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. "Let me wrap up. "Since January, we've had a seismic shift in US trade policy and a sharp increase in uncertainty. New US tariffs are now in place on key Canadian industries and on every other US trading partner. Financial markets in Canada and around the world have violently repriced and remain volatile. Households and businesses in Canada and beyond are braced for weaker growth and higher prices. "Monetary policy will ensure inflation remains well controlled and support economic growth as Canada confronts this unwanted trade war. As always, we will be guided by our monetary policy framework and our commitment to maintain price stability over time. "With that, the Senior Deputy Governor and I would be pleased to take your questions." (Reporting by David Ljunggren, editing by Promit Mukherjee) ((Reuters Ottawa bureau, +1 647 480 7921; opens new tab)) Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/MACKLEM
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
FULL TEXT-Bank of Canada held rates as it seeks more information on tariffs, says Governor
OTTAWA, April 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada released the following statement by Governor Tiff Macklem on Wednesday: "Good morning. I'm pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss today's policy announcement and our April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). "Today, Governing Council maintained the policy interest rate at 2.75% after seven consecutive rate cuts. "The Canadian economy ended 2024 in good shape. Inflation had been close to the 2% target since last summer. The substantial interest rate reductions since last spring had boosted household spending, economic growth had picked up and many businesses told us the economy had renewed momentum. "Since then, the dramatic protectionist shift in US trade policy and the chaotic delivery have increased uncertainty, roiled financial markets, diminished global growth prospects and raised inflation expectations. "The path for US trade policy remains highly unpredictable. There is also considerable uncertainty about the impacts of a trade war on our economy. "At our monetary policy decisions in both January and March, Governing Council reduced the policy interest rate a further 25 basis points as threats of higher US tariffs intensified. "A lot has happened since our March decision five weeks ago. But the future is no clearer. We still do not know what tariffs will be imposed, whether they'll be reduced or escalated, or how long all of this will last. "At this meeting, we decided to hold our policy rate unchanged as we gain more information about both the path forward for US tariffs and their impacts. "Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war. What we can and must do is ensure that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability. "Our focus will be on assessing the downward pressure on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressure from higher costs. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled. "Faced with pervasive uncertainty, Governing Council will proceed carefully, with particular attention to the risks. That means being less forward-looking than usual until the situation is clearer. It also means we are prepared to act decisively if incoming information points clearly in one direction. "Let me now turn to what we're seeing in the Canadian economy. "Incoming data are increasingly pointing to a considerable slowing in business investment and household spending. After expanding 5.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024, final domestic demand is expected to be roughly flat in the first quarter of 2025. Supported by a pull-forward in exports to get ahead of tariffs, GDP growth in the first quarter is forecast to be about 1.8%. But with exports expected to decline, second-quarter growth will be much weaker. "In the labour market, job growth was picking up at the end of last year, but trade tensions are disrupting this recovery. Employment was flat in February, down in March, and many businesses report they are scaling back their hiring plans. "Inflation in Canada has risen from 1.8% at the time of the January Report to 2.3% in March, reflecting the end of the GST/HST holiday and some rebound in goods price inflation. Elevated shelter price inflation continues to ease but goods price inflation rose more than shelter price inflation came down. The prices for imported goods have been boosted by the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Some businesses have also said suppliers are proactively raising prices in anticipation of future tariffs. Near-term inflation expectations have also risen because households and businesses expect tariffs will raise prices. "The very near-term outlook for inflation is relatively clear. The elimination of the consumer carbon tax on April 1 will reduce CPI inflation by about 0.7 percentage points for one year. Lower global oil prices will also pull inflation down, so total CPI inflation is expected to be about 1½% in April. "Looking beyond the very near term, what happens to the Canadian economy and inflation depends critically on US trade policy, which remains highly unpredictable. Given this uncertainty, point forecasts for economic growth and inflation are of little use as a guide to anything. So in this MPR, we instead present two illustrative scenarios that span a wide range of possible paths for US trade policy. In the report, we call these scenarios 1 and 2. "In Scenario 1, we assume most of the new tariffs get negotiated away, but the process is unpredictable, and businesses and households remain cautious. GDP growth in this scenario stalls in the second quarter, then expands only moderately. Inflation drops below the 2% target for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, both because of the end of the consumer carbon tax and a weak economy. "In Scenario 2, we assume a long-lasting global trade war. The economic consequences are severe. Canada's GDP contracts in the second quarter and the economy is in recession for a year. Growth gradually returns in 2026 but remains soft through 2027 as US tariffs permanently reduce Canada's potential output and lower our standard of living. Inflation rises above 3% in mid-2026 as tariffs, countermeasures and shifts in supply chains raise costs, pushing up many prices. Inflation then eases as weak demand limits ongoing inflationary pressures. "To be clear, these are only two of many possible scenarios, and even these do not span the possible outcomes. Governing Council agreed that where US trade policy is relative to scenarios 1 and 2 is a moving target. The April 2 announcement put the situation closer to Scenario 2, but the partial rollback on April 9 and new exemptions in recent days have moved trade policy back towards the middle of the two scenarios. We don't know what's coming next, and US policy could well move back and forth before the situation is clearer. "As we considered monetary policy, we used these two scenarios to reflect the uncertainty about US trade policy. We also considered risks related to the impacts of tariffs — these could be smaller and slower, or bigger and faster than captured in the scenarios. "What happens with inflation will depend importantly on what happens with tariffs. And if we find ourselves in a protracted trade war, we will see opposing pressures on inflation. A weaker economy will put downward pressure on inflation and higher costs from tariffs will put upward pressure. Both the uncertainty about tariffs and their opposing forces on inflation make forecasting inflation especially difficult at this time. "Moving forward, we will pay close attention to the risks and uncertainties to the Canadian economy and inflation. These include: the extent to which higher tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. "Let me wrap up. "Since January, we've had a seismic shift in US trade policy and a sharp increase in uncertainty. New US tariffs are now in place on key Canadian industries and on every other US trading partner. Financial markets in Canada and around the world have violently repriced and remain volatile. Households and businesses in Canada and beyond are braced for weaker growth and higher prices. "Monetary policy will ensure inflation remains well controlled and support economic growth as Canada confronts this unwanted trade war. As always, we will be guided by our monetary policy framework and our commitment to maintain price stability over time. "With that, the Senior Deputy Governor and I would be pleased to take your questions." ((Reuters Ottawa bureau, +1 647 480 7921; Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/MACKLEM Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
08-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
1 in 4 Bank of Canada managers needs French training
One in every four managers at the Bank of Canada fails to meet the institution's bilingualism requirements, including senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers, who is nearing the midway point of a seven-year mandate, according to information obtained by Radio-Canada. As senior deputy governor, Rogers is the central bank's most senior officer after governor Tiff Macklem, who is bilingual. She was appointed to the position in the summer of 2021, even though she did not meet bilingualism requirements at the time. Rogers took intensive French courses in the summers of 2022 and 2023, and also receives one-on-one language training, but she does not yet meet the bank's requirements in terms of managing employees in her second language. "Regarding the level of French of the senior deputy governor, she has made good progress and is moving towards the level of competence required by her functions," said Bank of Canada spokesperson Sean Gordon. Her case is not unique. According to the bank, 87 managers — 23 per cent of its 373 managers — have not yet obtained Level 5 in French, which is the standard for their positions. About 50 of them either took French-language courses last fall or will take them this spring. Gordon said managers at the bank must be able to "follow a conversation that unfolds at a natural pace, communicate clearly using complex sentences, and be able to express oneself spontaneously." Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, was appointed to the position in the summer of 2021. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press) Since the creation of the Bank of Canada in 1935, the first official language of all its governors has been English. The Bank said it wants all of its employees "to be able to work in the official language of their choice." That includes the economic specialists who help set the key interest rate. "I reject the assertion that we encourage French-speaking economists to work and make presentations in English. Presentations to senior management, including to the Monetary Policy Review Committee, are made in French," said Paul Badertscher, director of media relations at the bank. Former employee filed official complaint When the bank opened the position of senior deputy governor, it specified that candidates needed to be able to work in both official languages. However, Rogers confirmed during a meeting with employees in early 2022 that she was not bilingual. A former employee of the bank filed a complaint with the Office of the Commissioner of Official Languages, invoking the provisions of the Official Languages Act requiring senior managers of federal institutions to operate in both French and English. Radio-Canada is not identifying the complainant because they don't have their current employer's permission to speak publicly about the matter. According to the complaint, the former employee noted that while an "entry-level position requires mastery of English ... several members of senior management [are] incapable of functioning in French, even after careers spanning several decades." The complainant added that the lack of bilingualism at the top of the bank's hierarchy "was detrimental to the right to work in French" for all employees. The commissioner's office concluded the complaint was valid, pointing out that Rogers is not sufficiently bilingual to communicate effectively with bank employees in French. The Bank of Canada building in Ottawa in July 2024. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press) Bank says it has 'overhauled' language policy According to documents obtained by Radio-Canada, discussions between the Office of the Commissioner of Official Languages and the Bank of Canada continued until the beginning of this year. The commissioner's office urged the bank to implement "a directive aimed at ensuring respect for the linguistic rights of its employees in communications with senior management of the institution," but in January concluded its recommendation had only been "partially implemented." In response to questions from Radio-Canada, the bank said it has "overhauled" its internal bilingualism policy. Among the measures put in place, the bank requires managers to speak in both languages during internal events where simultaneous translation services are available. The institution said it has also created a dashboard to "monitor the evolution of the second language skills of its employees and managers." The bank also said it assesses the abilities of its senior managers in their second language every three years instead of every five "to reduce the risk of regression and encourage the use of both official languages in the workplace." Pierre Fortin, an economics professor at l'Université du Québec à Montréal, praised the Bank of Canada's bilingual publications, arguing they stand out from those of other federal institutions. "These are the only publications that I read without having to resort to the English version to understand the French version," Fortin said. Former bank officials said most of the work there is carried out in English and later translated to French. Lawyer Darius Bossé represents the former Bank of Canada employee who filed the complaint following the appointment of Carolyn Rogers. (Simon Lasalle/CBC) Lawyer Darius Bossé, who represents the former employee who filed the complaint after Rogers's appointment, said the bank has a long way to go before it's compliant with the requirements of the Official Languages Act. He urged the government to stop appointing unilingual people in the hope that they will quickly learn a second language. "The government takes for granted that language proficiency can be achieved over time, while people are working, even though it's clear that those skills are required from the start in order to supervise and manage employees in both official languages," Bossé said.
CBC
08-04-2025
- Business
- CBC
1 in 4 Bank of Canada managers needs French training
One in every four managers at the Bank of Canada fails to meet the institution's bilingualism requirements, including senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers, who is nearing the midway point of a seven-year mandate, according to information obtained by Radio-Canada. As senior deputy governor, Rogers is the central bank's most senior officer after governor Tiff Macklem, who is bilingual. She was appointed to the position in the summer of 2021, even though she did not meet bilingualism requirements at the time. Rogers took intensive French courses in the summers of 2022 and 2023, and also receives one-on-one language training, but she does not yet meet the bank's requirements in terms of managing employees in her second language. "Regarding the level of French of the senior deputy governor, she has made good progress and is moving towards the level of competence required by her functions," said Bank of Canada spokesperson Sean Gordon. Her case is not unique. According to the bank, 87 managers — 23 per cent of its 373 managers — have not yet obtained Level 5 in French, which is the standard for their positions. About 50 of them either took French-language courses last fall or will take them this spring. Gordon said managers at the bank must be able to "follow a conversation that unfolds at a natural pace, communicate clearly using complex sentences, and be able to express oneself spontaneously." Since the creation of the Bank of Canada in 1935, the first official language of all its governors has been English. The Bank said it wants all of its employees "to be able to work in the official language of their choice." That includes the economic specialists who help set the key interest rate. "I reject the assertion that we encourage French-speaking economists to work and make presentations in English. Presentations to senior management, including to the Monetary Policy Review Committee, are made in French," said Paul Badertscher, director of media relations at the bank. Former employee filed official complaint When the bank opened the position of senior deputy governor, it specified that candidates needed to be able to work in both official languages. However, Rogers confirmed during a meeting with employees in early 2022 that she was not bilingual. A former employee of the bank filed a complaint with the Office of the Commissioner of Official Languages, invoking the provisions of the Official Languages Act requiring senior managers of federal institutions to operate in both French and English. Radio-Canada is not identifying the complainant because they don't have their current employer's permission to speak publicly about the matter. According to the complaint, the former employee noted that while an "entry-level position requires mastery of English ... several members of senior management [are] incapable of functioning in French, even after careers spanning several decades." The complainant added that the lack of bilingualism at the top of the bank's hierarchy "was detrimental to the right to work in French" for all employees. The commissioner's office concluded the complaint was valid, pointing out that Rogers is not sufficiently bilingual to communicate effectively with bank employees in French. Bank says it has 'overhauled' language policy According to documents obtained by Radio-Canada, discussions between the Office of the Commissioner of Official Languages and the Bank of Canada continued until the beginning of this year. The commissioner's office urged the bank to implement "a directive aimed at ensuring respect for the linguistic rights of its employees in communications with senior management of the institution," but in January concluded its recommendation had only been "partially implemented." In response to questions from Radio-Canada, the bank said it has "overhauled" its internal bilingualism policy. Among the measures put in place, the bank requires managers to speak in both languages during internal events where simultaneous translation services are available. The institution said it has also created a dashboard to "monitor the evolution of the second language skills of its employees and managers." The bank also said it assesses the abilities of its senior managers in their second language every three years instead of every five "to reduce the risk of regression and encourage the use of both official languages in the workplace." Pierre Fortin, an economics professor at l'Université du Québec à Montréal, praised the Bank of Canada's bilingual publications, arguing they stand out from those of other federal institutions. "These are the only publications that I read without having to resort to the English version to understand the French version," Fortin said. Former bank officials said most of the work there is carried out in English and later translated to French. Lawyer Darius Bossé, who represents the former employee who filed the complaint after Rogers's appointment, said the bank has a long way to go before it's compliant with the requirements of the Official Languages Act. He urged the government to stop appointing unilingual people in the hope that they will quickly learn a second language. "The government takes for granted that language proficiency can be achieved over time, while people are working, even though it's clear that those skills are required from the start in order to supervise and manage employees in both official languages," Bossé said.
