22-04-2025
A discussion of how things stand for Newcastle: No panic stations, but they need to get over the line
Newcastle United's class of 2024-25 are already legends and trophy-winners, and their blistering form post-Wembley has seen them climb to fourth in the Premier League.
But this season has been one of toil as well as triumph, of inconsistency and dramatic defeats such as Saturday's 4-1 loss at Aston Villa, as well as long winning runs and historic results.
As the Champions League race threatens to go down to the wire, Chris Waugh and George Caulkin discuss where things stand for Newcastle and how they feel heading into the final five fixtures…
Caulkin: You were at Villa Park, Chris. There have been a few bad defeats for Newcastle this season — where did that defeat sit on the sliding scale?
Waugh: It wasn't as stark as the 4-1 home defeat by Bournemouth in January, given it was away and against Champions League quarter-finalists. But once the second goal went in, it felt inevitable that Newcastle would concede more. It was very similar to Bournemouth in that it felt like Newcastle had almost gone over a cliff physically.
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They came up against a side who had more energy and athleticism; Villa basically beat them at their own game. When this Newcastle side loses their trademark physicality and intensity, they are just not the same team. Certainly that appeared the case after the same XI had been sent out three times within six days.
The second half was difficult to watch. That was probably 45 minutes too far. But it definitely did not signal panic stations for me.
Caulkin: It didn't feel like some of those losses where you could question Newcastle's attitude. And it wasn't like Manchester City or Liverpool away, where they just didn't turn up. It felt more like hitting 60 minutes and then running out of gas.
Waugh: No, it certainly wasn't like Fulham away in September. Villa are the form team in the Premier League and, having identified what Newcastle's weaknesses were and, with fatigue setting in, they ruthlessly exploited them.
In the long run, Newcastle can learn lessons from this. They need to increase their squad depth and then rotate more next season once they are back in Europe. Villa's squad is borderline bloated and that is paying off towards the end of the season. They don't presently have a single player injured, which is a huge contrast compared with Newcastle in the Champions League last season.
And it's not just about the depth itself; Unai Emery has found a way to change multiple players every game and it doesn't really make a difference to Villa's success.
Newcastle just don't have the same depth quality-wise, which is largely down to the PSR (the Premier League's profit and sustainability rules) constraints of the past 18 months. It's worth pointing out that Villa have had PSR issues themselves and they have just kept spending, so there is a cost-benefit to what they have done.
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When Newcastle are primarily playing week to week, they're able to beat anyone. But they do not yet have the capacity to really cope with the additional demands Europe brings.
Caulkin: Ollie Watkins was brilliant for Villa. He talked afterwards about how furious he was to not start against Paris Saint-Germain. Ian Maatsen also came back into their team and scored. Emery left Pau Torres and Leon Bailey out of his squad. That's just not a luxury Newcastle have, even though their bench wasn't particularly weak in relative terms.
Then you look at what Villa have done in the market. According to they've spent around £127million ($170.3m) and brought in £112m this season. The season before they spent £84m and brought in £83m. In 2021-22, they sold Jack Grealish for huge money and used it to spend big. That ability to trade and reinvest has meant a huge difference between the two clubs in terms of squad strength.
Waugh: You're right. But Villa's wage-to-turnover ratio (96 per cent in 2023-24) is unsustainable and you suspect they'll need to do significant business again this summer, as they did last year, like Newcastle, to ensure PSR compliance.
But they've also put themselves in a position whereby they now have a decent chance of getting back in the Champions League, which should help them financially. So it's risk for potential reward there and they've gambled more than Newcastle have.
Newcastle got themselves into a PSR situation where they felt they had to act and bring in funds. Paul Mitchell's remit has been to make Newcastle's expenditure more sustainable and within the rules. That's partly why they haven't invested over the last three windows — because they consciously want to ensure they're in a healthier PSR position going forward.
A huge summer awaits, regardless of which European competition Newcastle are in because if you look at Chelsea in the UEFA Conference League this season, they basically put out an entirely different XI in the early stages. In the Champions League, you need greater quality, like Villa had coming off the bench in Marcus Rashford and Donyell Malen. Newcastle don't have the depth to do either.
Theoretically Newcastle have put themselves in a far better healthier PSR position to really make sure they can bolster significantly. Newcastle and Villa have adopted differing strategies, both of which have their pros and cons.
Caulkin: It was the seventh game in a row Newcastle named an unchanged XI. It's difficult to argue with that approach when the first six were victories, including the League Cup final. That consistency of selection has won them a trophy and got them into fourth.
Go back to that nine-game winning run in December and January that revolutionised their season and, again, changes were kept to a minimum. In those circumstances, can we really call it a mistake not to shuffle things around against Villa?
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Waugh: Mistake is the wrong word.
When you look at the bench, beyond Joe Willock, who hasn't had a brilliant season, and Anthony Gordon, who has been injured recently, the other substitutes haven't strongly pushed their case to be starting. That's not meant to be disrespectful to players who have been important to Newcastle's rise, but the difference between the first XI and most of the bench feels quite substantial at the moment.
To make those changes when going to a side who have lost once at home all season would have been a risk, just as starting the same side three times in six days was.
Jason Tindall insisted afterwards that if he'd made tweaks and Newcastle had lost, he'd have been questioned for changing a winning team. Such a difficult call really spotlighted for the first time how tough a situation he has been left in by Eddie Howe's unfortunate absence (due to pneumonia). Tindall is not the head coach, so does he really feel he has the authority to make such big decisions? It's a hard one for him.
Physically, yes, with hindsight, changes possibly could have been made, but even looking at it now, I can't present a strong case for any of those left out to start.
Caulkin: I agree. Because of the lack of depth in terms of quality and balance, the changes you could make are not necessarily in the areas you'd want. Gordon is the obvious one. When fit and on form, he's one of Newcastle's star players, but they went to Villa on the back of their biggest victory of the season and replacing either Harvey Barnes or Jacob Murphy, both of whom scored against Crystal Palace, would have been harsh. Gordon needs this competition. Ideally, you don't want to have automatic starters.
In midfield there are good options — Sean Longstaff, Willock, Lewis Miley — but that area has been Newcastle's greatest strength. Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton have been exceptional since the cup final.
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Villa targeted Newcastle's right on Saturday. Could Kieran Trippier have come out? Possibly, but then you're taking out huge influence and leadership as well as quality. I don't think any of these arguments are straightforward.
Waugh: When Newcastle had just won the final, there were genuine questions about which way the run-in would go.
Newcastle could have taken the psychological position that, 'We've won a cup, we're legends, we've been paraded through the city, and so the rest of the season doesn't really matter.' But the messaging from Howe and the players was: 'No, we want to be back in the Champions League.'
Wow, have they gone again. For Newcastle to be fourth with five games remaining, having already won a cup… If you'd offered that to anyone associated with the club on March 1, they'd have snapped your hand off.
Caulkin: Go back to late October and remember the sense of angst there was around the club. How a disruptive summer of change in the boardroom, that struggle to comply with PSR, failing to sign a first-XI player, uncertainty in the dressing room, all leeched into early results.
Then fast-forward to December and that awful 4-2 defeat at Brentford. They were 12th after that! It felt like a knife-edge moment. Externally, there was chuntering about Howe's future and it became a huge week of reset. Consistency has got Newcastle into the position they're in.
The way they've kicked on from Wembley has been remarkable and having given themselves this opportunity, they can't let it slip now. Maybe that's the point.
Waugh: An obvious question, but how important is Ipswich Town this weekend now? Not just in terms of result, but response.
Caulkin: It's massive, but I don't have any fear in that regard, even if my old Newcastle self is longing to add a caveat or two. They'll bounce back, because that's what they do.
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My only qualification is that Howe is needed in the dugout. He's the leader, the driver, integral to everything. It was a great testament to him that players and staff responded to his absence with such vigour against Manchester United and Crystal Palace, but this is his team. Everybody hopes he will be back soon.
Waugh: They do, especially given how ridiculously congested the Premier League is surrounding those final three Champions League qualification positions. Five into three doesn't go. How are you feeling about the run-in?
Caulkin: I feel relaxed… Who is this person I've become?! But unlike most of their rivals, Newcastle have already secured their season's objectives. I don't want to describe what follows as a free hit, because the Champions League is too important, but they should be confident. They should play like the legends they are!
I mentioned angst earlier. I certainly felt angst when Gordon ruled himself out of the final by getting sent off: 'There goes the trophy'. I was so wrong. Angst has been part of the Geordie psyche for so long — that if something can go wrong, it will — but this is a robust team now. Whenever they've put themselves in a difficult position, they've found a response.
I do think it will go down to the wire because it's so close, but I feel confident. How about you?
Waugh: I wouldn't say confident — the natural pessimist in me doesn't allow for that and Newcastle have some difficult games — but they have a great chance. Inside five days I've gone from writing about Newcastle chasing down Arsenal in second to discussing them missing out on the top five — that's how fickle I am!
It's probably in Newcastle's interests if Arsenal are in the Champions League final by the time they go to the Emirates next month, as perhaps that will prove a potential distraction. With a trip to Brighton & HOve Albion as well, Newcastle's away matches are tough, in spite of their massively improved form on the road this season.
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If Newcastle win their three home games, which I believe they can, that should be good enough, especially given one is against Chelsea. If you push me for a prediction, I think Newcastle will finish top five; probably fourth or fifth — which will more than suffice.
Caulkin: The Carabao Cup and returning the Champions League would make this, without question, the best season in Newcastle's modern history. But it's strange… Wembley was probably my favourite moment following the club but I'm not sure this has been up there with my favourite seasons, even if there have been some ridiculous highs.
When you throw in all the lows, the way it started and the negativity that lingered on from the summer, I don't think this compares with 2022-23 or even 1992-93 or 1993-94. What connects that fourth-place season under Howe and the early years of Kevin Keegan's first spell as manager was that wide-eyed sense of possibility and buzz, how every win felt like a miracle. This one has felt very long! And often like hard work.
Waugh: Arguably, that makes it an even greater achievement. When you consider the circumstances in which winning a first trophy in 56 years and potential Champions League qualification would have arrived, it would be a brilliant managerial feat.
Unlike two years ago, when fans would have recognised the rapid sense of progress even if it hadn't ended with a top-four finish, I think the abiding memory of this season will be very much outcome-based.
If you spoke to fans in December, it definitely wouldn't have been a vintage campaign for anyone at that stage. For years to come, it'll now be one everyone recalls vividly for at least one, if not hopefully two, very big reasons.
Caulkin: For them to be in this position is already a triumph given they haven't strengthened their first XI for three transfer windows, but now they need to make it count. What do legends do? They get it over the line.
