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Yahoo
16-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Signal: Scoop Up Options Now, Regardless of SPX Direction
With the S&P 500 Index (SPX) hitting new all-time highs recently, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX ) has dropped to its lowest level since mid-February. This isn't unexpected, as the VIX tends to move in the opposite direction of the S&P 500. The VIX is the implied volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, based on options pricing. The 30-day VIX futures, however, have not fallen as fast as the VIX. Currently, they are trading about 15% above the VIX. In other words, VIX futures traders are expecting a significant increase in the VIX over the next 30 days. Note that the 30-day VIX futures are being calculated using a weighted average of the first and second month VIX futures. The chart below tracks the S&P 500 back to 2017, with orange markers highlighting times that the 30-day VIX futures were at a 15% premium to the VIX. Eyeballing this chart, it seems this signal occurs during uptrends and at short-term peaks. In this week's article, I'll quantify what typically happens after these signals to get a better idea of what may lie ahead. The three tables below summarize S&P 500 returns over the next two weeks, one month and three months. I break the returns down by the 30-day VIX futures relative to the VIX. Recently, as previously mentioned, the futures sit about 15% above the VIX. Stocks have underperformed in these situations at each of those time frames. For example, over the next month, when the VIX futures were at this level above the VIX, the S&P 500 averaged a return of 0.50%, with 65% of the returns positive. When the premium was below 15%, the index averaged a return of 0.91% and when it was negative (the VIX is above the futures), the index averaged a one-month return of 2.37%. In our current situation, the magnitude of the average positive return and average negative return is low compared to the other brackets. Based on this, it wouldn't be surprising to see low volatility and underperformance in the short-term. I ran the same analysis as above, but I wanted to see anything changed if I only considered times the S&P 500 was within 2.5% of an all-time high, our current situation. The table below summarizes the one-month returns. Comparing the average returns in this table to the 1-month returns in the table above, it shows the S&P 500 has lower returns in the first two rows of the data. When the VIX futures premium is in the most normal range (0% - 15%), the average return of the S&P 500 goes from 0.91% anytime down to 0.58% when the index is near an all-time high. Our current situation -- in which the VIX futures premium is high -- the S&P 500 has performed better when it's near an all-time high compared to other times. The average return over the next month goes from 0.50% anytime to 0.59% when near an all-time high. Since the VIX is a measure of option prices, I thought it was appropriate to see how options have performed on the index in these situations. For this, I'm using hypothetical options on the SPY (an S&P 500 based exchange-traded fund (ETF) with extremely liquid options) which are at-the-money and expire in exactly one-month. So, these are option returns corresponding to the 1-month S&P 500 returns above. The table below shows how one-month call options have performed on the SPY since 2017 based on the 30-day VIX futures premium. With the strong market overall, call options have been outstanding. Interestingly, the average call option returns are very similar across all three buckets even though the S&P 500 itself tends to underperform with an elevated VIX futures premium. This is because the high VIX premiums primarily occur in low VIX environments. This means options are cheap and a smaller move is necessary to generate a similar return for an option. When the VIX futures premium has been above 15%, call options have had the highest average positive return of 135% and it also shows the highest percentage of option returns that doubled, although all three brackets are similar in this regard. Next, I show how 1-month put options have performed since 2017. As expected, given the strong market and the call option returns in the table above, puts have been bad. The median return of -100% for each bracket means that the index went higher over half the time and since these are exactly at-the-money options, that results in a complete loss for put options. Put options have been bad bets in general since 2017, but especially when the VIX was above the VIX futures (a negative VIX futures premium). This last table shows the performance of purchasing SPY straddles based on the VIX futures premium. A straddle means purchasing an at-the-money call option and put option so that you can profit no matter which way the index moves. However, to earn a profit, the move must be significant so that it can cover the premium of both options. Straddles have been profitable on average since 2017 when the VIX futures premium were at current levels. It was only when the VIX futures premium was negative that straddles were not profitable on average. In conclusion, while the current data suggests low volatility going forward, that doesn't means options will be a poor trading vehicle. In fact, option prices already reflect low volatility expectations. As the analysis above shows, options have historically performed well in similar environments, especially when VIX futures traders are pricing in a significant rise in the VIX over the next 30 days.
Bloomberg
15-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Stock Futures Jump as Core CPI Shows Easing Inflation in June
US stock futures touched session highs as traders welcomed a report showing consumer prices are cooling and weighed the outlook for corporate earnings and global trade. Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 Index rose 0.4% as of 8:46 a.m. in New York. The Nasdaq 100 Index advanced 0.6%, while the Cboe wfcVIX Index hovered near 16.6.
Yahoo
14-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The VIX Explained: How Traders Can Turn Fear Into Opportunity
When markets get shaky, one chart flashes red before anything else: The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX. Also known as the "fear gauge," the VIX measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) based on options pricing. That means the VIX isn't just showing what happened in the past… it's forecasting what traders think might happen in the stock market over the next 30 days. Shopify Stock is a Bargain - How to Make a 3.2% One-Month Yield with SHOP Option Volatility And Earnings Report For July 14 - 18 Generate Income on MSTR Without Owning The Stock (Yet) Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. Smart traders and investors watch the VIX to gauge when fear is building, and more importantly — how to act on it. Tracking VIX levels can give traders a real-time pulse on market sentiment, while looking at longer-term VIX trends and trading ranges can offer insights as to when sentiment extremes might be ripe for a reversal. Under 15: Markets are calm… but watch out for complacency 15 to 20: Neutral territory — not too hot, not too cold Above 20: Rising fear and potential volatility 30 and above: Panic mode — expect large swings, both up and down There's an old Wall Street saying: 'When the VIX is high, it's time to buy. When the VIX is low, look out below.' Here's how to use Barchart to track the VIX like a pro: In the search bar, type $VIX Click into the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) page Open the Interactive Chart In the chart view, click compare and type $SPX for a comparison of the S&P 500 Select 'New Pane,' adjust scale to 'actual values,' and hit Apply You'll now see how the VIX and the S&P 500 tend to move inversely — when the market drops, the VIX tends to spike. Understanding how the VIX works can help you: Spot moments of panic before the market reacts Time options trades when volatility is priced in or about to spike Hedge your portfolio during risk-on or risk-off periods Gauge investor sentiment during earnings, macro news, or global events Watch our latest reel to learn how to read the chart, spot warning signs, and turn fear into opportunity. Interactive Charts: Compare $VIX to $SPX or any other asset Put/Call Ratios: Gauge bullish vs. bearish sentiment Options Flow Tracker: Spot unusual activity High Implied Volatility Options: See which stocks are pricing in big moves The VIX is more than just a warning flag; it's an actionable sentiment signal that tells you what traders are bracing for. Instead of panicking when volatility hits, learn to spot the signs early so you can act with confidence. Watch the video now for the full breakdown, and learn how to use fear as your edge. On the date of publication, Barchart Insights did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
14-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Silver Crown Royalties Closes Final Tranche of Its Non-Brokered Private Placement
TORONTO, ONTARIO - July 14, 2025 (NEWMEDIAWIRE) - Silver Crown Royalties Inc. ("Silver Crown", "SCRi", the "Corporation", or the "Company") (Cboe:SCRI; OTCQX:SLCRF; FRA:QS0) is pleased to announce that the Company has successfully closed the final tranche ("Final Tranche") of its non-brokered offering of units ("Units") that was previously announced on May 20, 2025 (the "Offering") and issued 132,693 Units at a price of C$6.50 per Unit, for gross proceeds of approximately C$862,505.50. Each Unit consists of one common share ("Common Share") and one Common Share purchase warrant ("Warrant"), with each Warrant exercisable to acquire one additional Common Share at an exercise price of C$13.00 for a period of three years from the closing date. A total of 235,531Units were issued in accordance with the Offering for cumulative gross proceeds of C$1,530,951.50. The proceeds from the Final Tranche will be used to fund the Company's silver royalty acquisition on the Igor 4 project in Peru, as well as general and administrative expenses. All securities issued are subject to a statutory hold period of four months plus one day from the date of issuance, in accordance with applicable securities legislation. The closing was subject to customary conditions, including the approval of Cboe Canada Inc. ABOUT SILVER CROWN ROYALTIES INC. Founded by industry veterans, Silver Crown Royalties (Cboe: SCRI | OTCQX: SLCRF | BF: QS0) is a publicly traded, silver royalty company. Silver Crown (SCRi) currently has four silver royalties of which three are revenue-generating. Its business model presents investors with precious metals exposure that allows for a natural hedge against currency devaluation while minimizing the negative impact of cost inflation associated with production. SCRi endeavors to minimize the economic impact on mining projects while maximizing returns for shareholders. For further information, please contact: Silver Crown Royalties Bures, Chairman and CEOTelephone: (416) 481-1744Email: pbures@ FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This release contains certain "forward looking statements" and certain "forward-looking information" as defined under applicable Canadian and U.S. securities laws. Forward-looking statements and information can generally be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may", "will", "should", "expect", "intend", "estimate", "anticipate", "believe", "continue", "plans" or similar terminology. The forward-looking information contained herein is provided for the purpose of assisting readers in understanding management's current expectations and plans relating to the future. Readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Forward-looking statements and information include, but are not limited to, SCRi anticipates that Elk Gold will pay this residual amount owing on or before March 31, 2025. Forward-looking statements and information are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions that, while believed by management to be reasonable, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Forward-looking information is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual actions, events or results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information, including but not limited to: the impact of general business and economic conditions; the absence of control over mining operations from which SCRi will purchase gold and other metals or from which it will receive royalty payments and risks related to those mining operations, including risks related to international operations, government and environmental regulation, delays in mine construction and operations, actual results of mining and current exploration activities, conclusions of economic evaluations and changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; accidents, equipment breakdowns, title matters, labor disputes or other unanticipated difficulties or interruptions in operations; SCRi's ability to enter into definitive agreements and close proposed royalty transactions; the inherent uncertainties related to the valuations ascribed by SCRi to its royalty interests; problems inherent to the marketability of gold and other metals; the inherent uncertainty of production and cost estimates and the potential for unexpected costs and expenses; industry conditions, including fluctuations in the price of the primary commodities mined at such operations, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and fluctuations in interest rates; government entities interpreting existing tax legislation or enacting new tax legislation in a way which adversely affects SCRi; stock market volatility; regulatory restrictions; liability, competition, the potential impact of epidemics, pandemics or other public health crises on SCRi's business, operations and financial condition, loss of key employees. SCRi has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers are advised not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements or information. SCRi undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking information except as required by applicable law. Such forward-looking information represents management's best judgment based on information currently available. This document does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, securities of the Company in Canada, the United States or any other jurisdiction. Any such offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy the securities described herein will be made only pursuant to subscription documentation between the Company and prospective purchasers. Any such offering will be made in reliance upon exemptions from the prospectus and registration requirements under applicable securities laws, pursuant to a subscription agreement to be entered into by the Company and prospective investors. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, the reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. CBOE CANADA DOES NOT ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THIS NEWS RELEASE. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
10-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Citadel Securities Buys Morgan Stanley's Options Market Maker
Citadel Securities bought Morgan Stanley 's unit focused on electronic market-making for US equity options, expanding the firm's already dominant role in the popular derivatives, according to people familiar with the matter. The trading firm founded by billionaire Ken Griffin acquired Morgan Stanley's on-exchange options business and took on a large portfolio of equity options positions, the people said. The deal includes specialist posts on venues including Cboe, Nasdaq, NYSE and MIAX, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.
