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Al Jazeera
4 days ago
- Business
- Al Jazeera
Trump's tariff could devastate Brazil's small-scale coffee producers
Published On 25 Jul 2025 25 Jul 2025 In Porciuncula, Brazil, small-scale coffee farmer Jose Natal da Silva is losing sleep – not just to protect his arabica crops from pests, but over fears raised by a new 50% United States tariff on Brazilian goods announced by President Donald Trump. The tariff, widely seen as a political move in defence of far-right Trump ally ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, who faces trial for an alleged coup plot, could slash demand and prices for Brazilian coffee in its top export market. Brazil is the world's largest coffee exporter, sending 85 percent of its output abroad. The US buys 16 percent of that, making it Brazil's biggest coffee customer. Experts warn the tariff will hurt competitiveness, especially for family farmers who produce two-thirds of Brazil's coffee and have fewer resources to weather downturns or shift to new markets. Last year's climate change-driven drought already devastated crops. Now, falling arabica prices, down 33 percent since February, are compounding losses. 'We struggle for years, and suddenly we might lose everything,' said da Silva, who grows 40,000 trees and other crops to survive. Nearby in Varre-Sai, Paulo Menezes Freitas, another smallholder with 35,000 trees, fears he may be forced to abandon coffee farming. He says the tariff also affects essential imports like machinery and aluminium. 'It feels like the ground is crumbling under us,' he said. Despite the blow, Brazil's coffee exporters remain cautiously optimistic. The Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil (Cecafe)'s Marcio Ferreira believes US buyers can't afford to stop importing Brazilian beans. But on the ground, small farmers fervently hope for a rollback before livelihoods vanish.
The Mainichi
6 days ago
- Business
- The Mainichi
Small Brazilian coffee producers fear for the future after Trump's 50% tariff
PORCIUNCULA, Brazil (AP) -- Brazilian Jose Natal da Silva often tends to his modest coffee plantation in the interior of Rio de Janeiro state in the middle of the night, sacrificing sleep to fend off pests that could inflict harm on his precious crops. But anxiety has troubled his shut-eye even more in recent weeks, following President Donald Trump's announcement earlier this month of a 50% tariff on Brazilian imported goods, which experts expect to drive down the price of coffee in Brazil. Da Silva sighed as he recounted his fears, sitting on the dry earth surrounded by his glossy green arabica coffee shrubs, in the small municipality of Porciuncula. "We're sad because we struggle so much. We spend years battling to get somewhere. And suddenly, everything starts falling apart, and we're going to lose everything," da Silva said. "How are we going to survive?" Tariff linked to Bolsonaro trial Trump's tariff on Brazil is overtly political. In his public letter detailing the reasons for the hike, the U.S. president called the trial of his ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro, a " witch hunt." Bolsonaro is accused of masterminding a coup to overturn his 2022 election loss to left-leaning President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The tariff has sparked ripples of fear in Brazil, particularly among sectors with deep ties to the American market such as beef, orange juice -- and coffee. Minor coffee producers say the import tax will hit their margins and adds to the uncertainty already generated by an increasingly dry and unpredictable climate. Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, exports around 85% of its production. The United States is the country's top coffee buyer and represents around 16% of exports, according to Brazil's coffee exporters council Cecafe. The president of Cecafe's deliberative council, Marcio Ferreira, told journalists last week that he thinks the U.S. will continue to import Brazilian coffee, even with the hefty tariff. "It's obvious that neither the United States nor any other source can give up on Brazil, even if it's tariffed," he said. Tariff could hurt competitiveness of Brazilian coffee in U.S. But the tariff will likely decrease Brazilian coffee's competitiveness in the U.S. and naturally reduce demand, said Leandro Gilio, a professor of global agribusiness at Insper business school in Sao Paulo. "There's no way we can quickly redirect our coffee production to other markets," Gilio said. "This principally affects small producers, who have less financial power to make investments or support themselves in a period like this." Family farmers produce more than two-thirds of Brazilian coffee. They are a majority in Rio state's northwestern region, where most of the state's coffee production lies. Coffee farming is the primary economic activity in these municipalities. In Porciuncula, which neighbors Brazil's largest coffee-producing state Minas Gerais, gentle mountains are layered with symmetrical lines of coffee shrubs. Da Silva, who wore a straw hat for protection from the sun and a crucifix around his neck, owns around 40,000 coffee trees. He started working in the fields when he was 12. Besides coffee, he grows cassava, squash, bananas, oranges and lemons and has a few chickens that provide fresh eggs. "We have them because of the fear of not being able to eat. We wouldn't manage if everything were bought, because the profit is very low," he said. Last year, drought -- made more likely by human-caused climate change -- devastated large swathes of da Silva's production. The reduction in supply pushed coffee prices up, but only after many small-scale farmers had already sold all their crops. Since peaking in February, prices of arabica have fallen, dropping 33% by July, according to the University of Sao Paulo's Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics, which provides renowned commodity price reports. "When you make an investment, counting on a certain price for coffee, and then when you go to sell it the price is 20-30% less than you calculated, it breaks the producers," said Paulo Vitor Menezes Freitas, 31, who also owns a modest plantation of around 35,000 coffee trees in the nearby municipality of Varre-Sai. The demands of coffee farming Life out in the fields is tough, according to Menezes Freitas. During harvest season, he sometimes gets up at 3 a.m. to turn on a coffee drier, going to bed as late as midnight. The rest of the year is less intense, but still, there are few to no breaks because there's always work to do, he said. Menezes Freitas, who is expecting his first child in October, said the tariff's announcement increased his fears for the future. "It's scary. It feels like you're on shaky ground. If things get worse, what will we do? People will start pulling out their coffee and finding other ways to survive because they won't have the means to continue," he said. In addition to slashing the value of his coffee beans, Menezes Freitas said the tariff will impact machinery and aluminum -- goods that producers like him use every day. "We hope this calms down. Hopefully, they'll come to their senses and remove that tariff. I think it would be better for both the United States and Brazil," he said.
6 days ago
- Business
Small Brazilian coffee producers fear for the future after Trump's 50% tariff
PORCIUNCULA, Brazil -- Brazilian José Natal da Silva often tends to his modest coffee plantation in the interior of Rio de Janeiro state in the middle of the night, sacrificing sleep to fend off pests that could inflict harm on his precious crops. But anxiety has troubled his shut-eye even more in recent weeks, following President Donald Trump's announcement earlier this month of a 50% tariff on Brazilian imported goods, which experts expect to drive down the price of coffee in Brazil. Da Silva sighed as he recounted his fears, sitting on the dry earth surrounded by his glossy green arabica coffee shrubs, in the small municipality of Porciuncula. 'We're sad because we struggle so much. We spend years battling to get somewhere. And suddenly, everything starts falling apart, and we're going to lose everything,' da Silva said. 'How are we going to survive?' Trump's tariff on Brazil is overtly political. In his public letter detailing the reasons for the hike, the U.S. president called the trial of his ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro, a ' witch hunt.' Bolsonaro is accused of masterminding a coup to overturn his 2022 election loss to left-leaning President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The tariff has sparked ripples of fear in Brazil, particularly among sectors with deep ties to the American market such as beef, orange juice — and coffee. Minor coffee producers say the import tax will hit their margins and adds to the uncertainty already generated by an increasingly dry and unpredictable climate. Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, exports around 85% of its production. The United States is the country's top coffee buyer and represents around 16% of exports, according to Brazil's coffee exporters council Cecafe. The president of Cecafe's deliberative council, Márcio Ferreira, told journalists last week that he thinks the U.S. will continue to import Brazilian coffee, even with the hefty tariff. 'It's obvious that neither the United States nor any other source can give up on Brazil, even if it's tariffed,' he said. But the tariff will likely decrease Brazilian coffee's competitiveness in the U.S. and naturally reduce demand, said Leandro Gilio, a professor of global agribusiness at Insper business school in Sao Paulo. 'There's no way we can quickly redirect our coffee production to other markets,' Gilio said. 'This principally affects small producers, who have less financial power to make investments or support themselves in a period like this.' Family farmers produce more than two-thirds of Brazilian coffee. They are a majority in Rio state's northwestern region, where most of the state's coffee production lies. Coffee farming is the primary economic activity in these municipalities. In Porciuncula, which neighbors Brazil's largest coffee-producing state Minas Gerais, gentle mountains are layered with symmetrical lines of coffee shrubs. Da Silva, who wore a straw hat for protection from the sun and a crucifix around his neck, owns around 40,000 coffee trees. He started working in the fields when he was 12. Besides coffee, he grows cassava, squash, bananas, oranges and lemons and has a few chickens that provide fresh eggs. 'We have them because of the fear of not being able to eat. We wouldn't manage if everything were bought, because the profit is very low,' he said. Last year, drought — made more likely by human-caused climate change — devastated large swathes of da Silva's production. The reduction in supply pushed coffee prices up, but only after many small-scale farmers had already sold all their crops. Since peaking in February, prices of arabica have fallen, dropping 33% by July, according to the University of Sao Paulo's Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics, which provides renowned commodity price reports. 'When you make an investment, counting on a certain price for coffee, and then when you go to sell it the price is 20-30% less than you calculated, it breaks the producers,' said Paulo Vitor Menezes Freitas, 31, who also owns a modest plantation of around 35,000 coffee trees in the nearby municipality of Varre-Sai. Life out in the fields is tough, according to Menezes Freitas. During harvest season, he sometimes gets up at 3 a.m. to turn on a coffee drier, going to bed as late as midnight. The rest of the year is less intense, but still, there are few to no breaks because there's always work to do, he said. Menezes Freitas, who is expecting his first child in October, said the tariff's announcement increased his fears for the future. 'It's scary. It feels like you're on shaky ground. If things get worse, what will we do? People will start pulling out their coffee and finding other ways to survive because they won't have the means to continue,' he said. In addition to slashing the value of his coffee beans, Menezes Freitas said the tariff will impact machinery and aluminum — goods that producers like him use every day. 'We hope this calms down. Hopefully, they'll come to their senses and remove that tariff. I think it would be better for both the United States and Brazil,' he said.
Winnipeg Free Press
6 days ago
- Business
- Winnipeg Free Press
Small Brazilian coffee producers fear for the future after Trump's 50% tariff
PORCIUNCULA, Brazil (AP) — Brazilian José Natal da Silva often tends to his modest coffee plantation in the interior of Rio de Janeiro state in the middle of the night, sacrificing sleep to fend off pests that could inflict harm on his precious crops. But anxiety has troubled his shut-eye even more in recent weeks, following President Donald Trump's announcement earlier this month of a 50% tariff on Brazilian imported goods, which experts expect to drive down the price of coffee in Brazil. Da Silva sighed as he recounted his fears, sitting on the dry earth surrounded by his glossy green arabica coffee shrubs, in the small municipality of Porciuncula. 'We're sad because we struggle so much. We spend years battling to get somewhere. And suddenly, everything starts falling apart, and we're going to lose everything,' da Silva said. 'How are we going to survive?' Tariff linked to Bolsonaro trial Trump's tariff on Brazil is overtly political. In his public letter detailing the reasons for the hike, the U.S. president called the trial of his ally, former President Jair Bolsonaro, a ' witch hunt.' Bolsonaro is accused of masterminding a coup to overturn his 2022 election loss to left-leaning President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The tariff has sparked ripples of fear in Brazil, particularly among sectors with deep ties to the American market such as beef, orange juice — and coffee. Minor coffee producers say the import tax will hit their margins and adds to the uncertainty already generated by an increasingly dry and unpredictable climate. Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, exports around 85% of its production. The United States is the country's top coffee buyer and represents around 16% of exports, according to Brazil's coffee exporters council Cecafe. The president of Cecafe's deliberative council, Márcio Ferreira, told journalists last week that he thinks the U.S. will continue to import Brazilian coffee, even with the hefty tariff. 'It's obvious that neither the United States nor any other source can give up on Brazil, even if it's tariffed,' he said. Tariff could hurt competitiveness of Brazilian coffee in U.S. But the tariff will likely decrease Brazilian coffee's competitiveness in the U.S. and naturally reduce demand, said Leandro Gilio, a professor of global agribusiness at Insper business school in Sao Paulo. 'There's no way we can quickly redirect our coffee production to other markets,' Gilio said. 'This principally affects small producers, who have less financial power to make investments or support themselves in a period like this.' Family farmers produce more than two-thirds of Brazilian coffee. They are a majority in Rio state's northwestern region, where most of the state's coffee production lies. Coffee farming is the primary economic activity in these municipalities. In Porciuncula, which neighbors Brazil's largest coffee-producing state Minas Gerais, gentle mountains are layered with symmetrical lines of coffee shrubs. Da Silva, who wore a straw hat for protection from the sun and a crucifix around his neck, owns around 40,000 coffee trees. He started working in the fields when he was 12. Besides coffee, he grows cassava, squash, bananas, oranges and lemons and has a few chickens that provide fresh eggs. 'We have them because of the fear of not being able to eat. We wouldn't manage if everything were bought, because the profit is very low,' he said. Last year, drought — made more likely by human-caused climate change — devastated large swathes of da Silva's production. The reduction in supply pushed coffee prices up, but only after many small-scale farmers had already sold all their crops. Since peaking in February, prices of arabica have fallen, dropping 33% by July, according to the University of Sao Paulo's Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics, which provides renowned commodity price reports. 'When you make an investment, counting on a certain price for coffee, and then when you go to sell it the price is 20-30% less than you calculated, it breaks the producers,' said Paulo Vitor Menezes Freitas, 31, who also owns a modest plantation of around 35,000 coffee trees in the nearby municipality of Varre-Sai. The demands of coffee farming Life out in the fields is tough, according to Menezes Freitas. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. During harvest season, he sometimes gets up at 3 a.m. to turn on a coffee drier, going to bed as late as midnight. The rest of the year is less intense, but still, there are few to no breaks because there's always work to do, he said. Menezes Freitas, who is expecting his first child in October, said the tariff's announcement increased his fears for the future. 'It's scary. It feels like you're on shaky ground. If things get worse, what will we do? People will start pulling out their coffee and finding other ways to survive because they won't have the means to continue,' he said. In addition to slashing the value of his coffee beans, Menezes Freitas said the tariff will impact machinery and aluminum — goods that producers like him use every day. 'We hope this calms down. Hopefully, they'll come to their senses and remove that tariff. I think it would be better for both the United States and Brazil,' he said.
Canada News.Net
13-07-2025
- Business
- Canada News.Net
Brazil tariff threatens U.S. coffee, orange juice supply chain
LONDON/NEW YORK CITY: American grocery bills may be headed higher as coffee and orange juice prices face upward pressure from new tariffs on Brazilian imports, traders and industry experts warned. The Trump administration's decision to raise tariffs on all goods from Brazil to 50 percent—up from 10 percent—has sparked alarm among food importers. The steep duty, set to take effect August 1, is expected to disrupt the flow of Brazilian coffee to the U.S., which relies on Brazil as its top supplier. "A tariff of this size would all but shut down that flow. Brazilian exporters won't absorb it. U.S. roasters can't," said senior coffee broker Michael Nuggent of MJ Nuggent & Co. "Bottom line: Brazil will sell its coffee elsewhere. The U.S. will buy coffee from someone else—Colombia, Honduras, Peru, Vietnam—but not at Brazil's volume or price." Brazil shipped 8.14 million 60-kg bags of coffee to the U.S. in 2024, more than 30 percent higher than the previous year, according to exporter group Cecafe. About a third of the coffee consumed in the U.S. comes from Brazil, making the country a critical source for American roasters. "I don't think it would be economically feasible to sell Brazilian coffee to the U.S. with the 50 percent tariff," said the Brazil head of a major global commodities firm, who declined to be named. "Let's see how this will evolve, but it would be very complicated." Coffee producer Paulo Armelin, who sells directly to U.S. buyers, said talks for 2025 shipments were already strained due to a 70 percent spike in coffee prices last year. "We will have to look for other markets, maybe Germany," he said. Orange juice could be the next product hit. More than half of what's consumed in the U.S. comes from Brazil, and domestic supply has plummeted due to hurricanes, frost, and citrus greening disease. A USDA report earlier this year forecast an 88-year low for the U.S. orange harvest and a record low in orange juice production for the 2024/25 season. Other Brazilian goods—like sugar, wood, oil, and ethanol—may also be affected. Brazil is the world's second-largest producer of ethanol, though only a small portion is exported to the U.S. Some domestic industries have welcomed the move. U.S. cattle producers, for example, have blamed Brazilian beef imports for shrinking the domestic industry. "We fully support this tariff on Brazil," said rancher group R-CALF USA. "We need to rebuild and reduce our nation's dependency on imported food." U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has indicated that some essential natural resources, including tropical fruits and spices not produced domestically, could be exempt from the new tariffs depending on negotiations. The tariff announcement came alongside a letter from Donald Trump to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, criticising Brazil's stance on free elections, social media platforms, and digital trade practices involving U.S. firms.
