Latest news with #Census2027
Time of India
14 hours ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Who's really over-represented? Busting delimitation myths
The announcement of Census 2027 has sparked off a fresh debate on delimitation. The argument that it will penalise states that have controlled their population better is based on popularly held myths. Research this writer undertook on Census data since 1872 shows that all regions of India grew briskly in terms of population at different points of time, with the South growing faster till 1951, and North India picking up pace after that. Kerala was the first state to double its population between 1881 and 1931, and Tamil Nadu was the next. Kerala doubled its population yet again between 1931 and 1971, and then began to stabilise its population. While this may sound surprising to many, it's true, and follows the pattern demographic transition has taken the world over. Out of the four regions of India, the North grew at the lowest rate between 1881 and 1951. Its demographic take-off decade was the 1950s, precisely the period when 'population explosion' emerged as a serious global policy concern. The later demographic growth phase of the North was thus mistakenly seen as caused by social and cultural backwardness, and failure of family planning, without considering longer-term empirical evidence. In 1976, delimitation was frozen for 25 years on the basis of the 1971 Census, and the same was done in 2001 for another 25 years. So, the constitutional principle of 'one person, one vote, one value' no longer holds, and the value of a vote in Bihar is much lower than the value of a vote in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Policymakers will have to figure out how to reconcile the constitutional promise with this skew which will have only increased since 2001. Importantly, while the right to equality is one of the bedrocks of the Constitution, formal equality is abandoned by it only for the benefit of the more deprived and backward — subsidies to the poor and reservation for backward classes being an example — and never for the well-off. One argument that the debate on delimitation will thus have to confront is whether formal equality can be abandoned in favour of better-off groups, socially or geographically, and what it will mean for the Constitution. While this is for political players to decide, it is important that the debate takes place on an empirically sound basis. The North, meaning the Hindi belt, has not grown at a disproportionate rate vis-a-vis other regions of India, and its national population share has gone down from about 50% in 2001 to 46% in 2011. South India has grown rapidly for 100 of those 150 years, increasing its share from about 22% in 1881 to about 26% in 1951, maintaining it at around 25% in 1971, before going down in the last few decades. Over 1881-1971, the North had the lowest cumulative growth of about 115%, as compared to the South at 193%, West 168% and East 213%. Over 1881-2011, the North at 427% was again at the bottom, with the South at 445%, West at 500%, and East at 535%. The prevalent distorted perception arises from taking only the post-1971 period into account — when population growth in the South started slowing down with better social and economic indicators, even as growth in the less developed North and better-off states of the West picked up. Without considering principles of demographic transition that operate in most societies over the long term, a proper perspective on why populations of different regions of India — or, of the world for that matter — grow at differential paces during any given period won't develop. Culture may at best be a marginal influence on population growth patterns, which social and economic factors adequately explain. Any causal connection between family planning and population control in India is at best tenuous, mainly because when family planning assumed importance in the 1960s, some southern states had already grown at a rapid pace and were at or near their peak population growth rates. Therefore, they witnessed stabilisation from the 1970s and 1980s. Family planning was at best an associate factor. Moreover, relatively developed western India has shown good demographic growth over the last 150 years, increasing its population share and potential parliamentary representation. Today, North and West India are grossly under-represented, the East is almost even, while the South is heavily over-represented. While the average Lok Sabha constituency in the South has just about 21 lakh people, in the North it has around 31 lakh, and in the West 28 lakh. The real divide in representation isn't North vs South; it's more like the South versus the rest. Mishra, a historian, is the author of 'Demography, Representation, Delimitation: The North-South Divide in India' and joint director, Prime Ministers Museum and Library
The Hindu
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Hindu
Stalin says Ministry of Home Affairs' remarks on delimitation are ‘vague'
Seeing a 'sinister design' by the Narendra Modi-led government in Census 2027 and the subsequent delimitation, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin on Friday said the remarks of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs over the proposed delimitation exercise were 'vague' and further called for a 'clear Parliamentary commitment and a suitable Constitutional amendment.' Mr. Stalin also endorsed the edit published in The Hindu — 'Injustice in the delay - The announcement of the Census is welcome, but the delay is unjust'. On Thursday, a social media post of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said Union Minister Amit Shah had clarified on many occasions that in the delimitation exercise, concerns of southern States would be taken care of and discussed with all concerned at an appropriate time. 'The MHA claims that the concerns of affected States will be addressed. But these are vague remarks. What is needed is a clear Parliamentary commitment and a suitable Constitutional amendment,' Mr. Stalin said in a social media post. Recalling the abrogation of Article 370, Mr. Stalin said: 'The Union government spoke of restoring Statehood to Jammu and Kashmir. Elections were held. Assurances were given in the Supreme Court. Yet, Jammu and Kashmir remains a Union territory. This is the track record of the BJP we are dealing with.' If the Union government proceeded with delimitation based on the Census 2027, the democratic power of peninsular India would be 'reduced to irrelevance,' Mr. Stalin contended. Taking a swipe at his party's rival, AIADMK, over their electoral alliance with the BJP, Mr. Stalin, also the DMK president, said: 'Even if betrayers like the ADMK [AIADMK] choose to kneel before the BJP for their political survival, the people of Tamil Nadu, led by the DMK, will never allow our State to be punished for its progress. Tamil Nadu will fight! Tamil Nadu will win!' Claiming that the delay in the Census was 'no accident', Mr. Stalin further said that the delimitation plan was 'no coincidence' and the danger that he warned of was 'at our doorstep.' There was a 'sinister design' in how the BJP-led Union government was implementing the national Census and the subsequent delimitation, Mr. Stalin said: 'Developed States, especially in the non-Hindi speaking south, which followed population control norms, will now be punished. Meanwhile, States that disregarded population control for decades are set to gain more seats in Parliament. This unfair shift skews the federal balance and rewards irresponsibility.' He also recalled his warning about this 'design' and referred to the contention of senior Congress leader and former Union Minister P. Chidambaram on 'how this sleight of hand is unfolding.' Mr. Stalin emphasised: 'The time has come not only to be vigilant but also to craft counter-strategies to safeguard the South's voice.' The Census 2027 would form the basis for the next delimitation, replacing the 1971 data, he said, and further asserted that this gave the Union BJP-led government the means to 'restructure Parliamentary representation to its advantage, at the cost of the southern States.'
The Hindu
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Hindu
The Hindu Morning Digest: June 06, 2025
Bengaluru stampede: City police chief suspended, RCB booked A day after a stampede claimed the lives of 11 and left 56 injured at the M. Chinnaswamy Stadium here during revelry to celebrate Royal Challengers Bengaluru's (RCB) victory in IPL-2025, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah announced that Bengaluru Police Commissioner B. Dayananda and all police officials responsible for the jurisdiction where the stadium is, have been suspended, pending inquiry. Two mobile apps, portal to aid in speedy processing of Census 2027 data Enumerators for the 2027 Census will make data entries into apps on their smartphones for the first time, meaning that the data can be processed in real time, officials said on Thursday (June 5, 2025). This could mean the faster publication of datasets, rather than having them spread out over the decade following a population count, as has been seen in the case of past Censuses. Elon Musk slams 'ingratitude' after Trump's 'very disappointed' remark Tensions between Donald Trump and Elon Musk exploded into public view Thursday, as the US president said he was 'very disappointed' by his billionaire former aide's criticisms and Musk hit back in real time on social media. Pakistan likes to dangle nuclear bogey to get the world excited, Tharoor says in Washington There was no significant risk that the recent fighting between India and Pakistan, following the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, was approaching a nuclear threshold, according to Congress MP Shashi Tharoor. Railways to undertake random verification of Aadhaar to check for illegal immigrants The Indian Railways has issued an alert on illegal immigrants using fake or forged Aadhaar cards as proof of identity while travelling and directed Travelling Ticket Examiners to check at random the veracity of the document. Delimitation will address concerns of southern States: Home Ministry The delimitation exercise will take care of the concerns expressed by southern States, and discussions will be held with all stakeholders at the appropriate time, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said on Thursday (June 5, 2025). PM Modi to inaugurate Kashmir's first all-weather rail link with Delhi via Katra Kashmir is set to finally have a rail link with the rest of the country, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate the Srinagar–Jammu–Delhi rail link on June 6 at the Katra end in Jammu's Udhampur district. The Vande Bharat Express between Shri Mata Vaishno Devi Katra and Srinagar will begin regular operations from June 7, officials said. Security forces launch operation along India-Myanmar border in Arunachal Pradesh Security forces launched a patrol to dominate the border areas on Thursday (June 5, 2025), following specific information about the movement of unknown armed individuals in Pongchau Circle of Longding district in Arunachal Pradesh. Aryna Sabalenka ends Iga Swiatek's 26-match French Open winning streak, reaches the final No. 1-ranked Aryna Sabalenka ended Iga Swiatek's 26-match French Open unbeaten streak and reached the final in Paris for the first time by using her pure power to dominate down the stretch and win their semifinal 7-6 (1), 4-6, 6-0 on Thursday.
Indian Express
3 days ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
Census is welcome – it has to be about more than stats
In the recent past, the Centre has taken several steps to fill the gaps in data availability in the country. For instance, it has conducted two rounds of household consumption expenditure surveys for 2022-23 and 2023-24 which provide granular data on household spending patterns, and also allow for the estimation of poverty and inequality in the country. The government has also announced that the revamped sample design of the labour force surveys will allow for the generation of monthly estimates of key labour market indicators, which will aid policymaking. On Wednesday, it took another step, announcing the dates for the much delayed Census. This is a welcome development. The Census 2021 had been postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic and has not been conducted since. This had meant that the last Census conducted provided estimates of India's population as of March 2011. Considering that timely and accurate data forms the basis of policy making, the continuing absence of the Census data has only hindered policymaking in the country. The Census 2027 will be conducted in two phases. As per a report in this paper, the household listing phase is likely to begin by March-April 2026, while the enumeration exercise will take place over 21 days in February 2027. As per the Ministry of Home Affairs, 'the reference date for population Census-2027 will be 00:00 hours of the first day of March, 2027'. For the UT of Ladakh and the non-synchronous snow-bound areas of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the reference date will be 00.00 hours of the first day of October, 2026. Alongside, the exercise will also involve the enumeration of castes. This will be the first time since 1931 that the Census will gather detailed data on caste beyond Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. But, the announcement of the Census has also raised questions on the possibility of delimitation — the process of reconfiguring the Lok Sabha and state assembly seats — and the implementation of 33 per cent reservation for women in Parliament. In addition to providing population estimates, the Census also collects data on several household socio-economic indicators. This provides vital information on the changes in the country over the decades. Alongside, the Census data is also used in various surveys, and by both government agencies and private entities in the formulation of policies and strategies. It thus serves an invaluable purpose, aiding policy making in India.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Census to pave way for nationwide delimitation
NEW DELHI: Population data returned by the upcoming 'Census 2027', due to begin on April 1, 2026, will pave the way for a countrywide delimitation of Lok Sabha and assembly constituencies, as the March 1, 2027 reference date makes it "the first Census to be held after 2026". However, the chances of delimitation being completed in time for the 2029 general election appear bleak, given that the final population data may take time to be published. The final population data for Census 2011 was published almost two years after release of the provisional data in March-end 2011. Even with a 'digital' Census - which is expected to facilitate early release of tables - there may be a considerable time lag between completion of the exercise in March 2027 and availability of the final population count to enable initiation of the delimitation process. The home ministry on Thursday took to X to explain the delay in conducting the Census, put on hold five years ago due to the Covid outbreak, stating that hiring lakhs of school teachers as enumerators would have immensely disrupted primary education already hit by the pandemic.
