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Time of India
30-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
In Trump's first 100 days, US energy dominance plans roiled by trade uncertainty
Just 100 days into President Donald Trump 's second term, oil prices have slumped over 20% to below many U.S. producers' breakeven costs as investors lose confidence amid tariff and policy uncertainty - undercutting Trump's push for U.S. energy dominance. #Pahalgam Terrorist Attack PM Modi-led 'Super Cabinet' reviews J&K security arrangements Pakistan's General Asim Munir is itching for a fight. Are his soldiers willing? India planning to launch military strike against Pakistan within 24 to 36 hours, claims Pak minister Trump campaigned on the often-repeated refrain of "drill, baby, drill" and moved on his first day in office on January 20 to maximize output in the U.S., the world's top oil and gas producer. His protectionist trade policy, however, has reduced oil demand growth forecasts, and lower international energy prices have soured the outlook for the industry. Benchmark U.S. crude prices have plummeted to around $60 a barrel, a low not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, and below the $65 level that many oil producers say they need to make money. Over half of the decline occurred since Trump's "Liberation Day" on April 2 when he declared a minimum 10% tariff on U.S. imports, prompting expectations that the global economy would slow. Live Events "The macro environment has gotten much worse, thanks to the tariffs and policy uncertainty," said Ben Cahill, director at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis at the University of Texas at Austin. "Energy dominance requires investor confidence," he added. The Trump administration has also imposed sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales, including on China-based energy facilities, in an attempt to help prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon and funding militant groups across the Middle East. While the sanctions provided some support to oil prices, they added to market uncertainty. Citing U.S. tariffs, forecasters across the board, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, OPEC and major banks, have cut their oil price and demand growth outlooks. OPEC+'s decision to speed up output hikes this spring exacerbated the price fall. Yet, Trump had called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil just days after he took office. As a result of the price slump, U.S. crude producers - who were pumping some 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in April and are expected to pump 13.5 million bpd in 2025, down from previous forecasts - are already putting the brakes on drilling new wells. "Trump and his energy team seem to think U.S. producers will drill through the uncertainty that's been created. They won't, and hoping they will is a poor calculus," Roe Patterson, former CEO of oilfield company Basic Energy Services and managing partner at Marauder Capital, wrote in a LinkedIn post. A Department of Energy spokesperson said Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright are committed to expanding American energy infrastructure, in response to a request for comment for this story. LNG COMES OUT ON TOP Natural gas, and its liquefied state, LNG, have fared better than oil under Trump. On his first day in office, Trump ordered the resumption of LNG export approvals - something former President Joe Biden had paused - and has started rolling back environmental regulations that slowed projects. Several companies have announced investments in recent months, including Australia's Woodside Energy, which gave final approval to build a $17.5 billion LNG project and cited Trump's desire for "American energy dominance." The EIA in April forecast average U.S. LNG exports would reach 15.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024 and higher than the outlook before the Trump administration. Tariffs on steel and aluminum, however, will increase project costs, adding to labor, financing and equipment inflation, said Jason Feer, the head of business intelligence at Poten and Partners. CLEAN ENERGY HIT Trump's policies have favoured the fossil fuel sector over the low-carbon energy industry. On his first day, he ordered the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and suspended new federal offshore wind leasing, casting doubt on the viability of dozens of planned developments. Trump has also attempted to expand electricity generated by fossil fuels through deregulation and executive actions that loosen power plant emissions rules. Boosting coal-generated electricity, which now makes up less than 20% of supplies versus an over 50% share in 2010, will be difficult and does not make economic sense. Coal has lost market share to gas, wind and solar power. The average coal power plant is around 50 years old, and big utilities have no plans for new ones. "Federal policy now clearly favors oil, gas, and other fossil energy sources, while disfavoring renewable energy sources that had enjoyed incentives and other favorable treatment under the prior administration," said David Amerikaner, partner at law firm Duane Morris.
Zawya
30-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
In Trump's first 100 days, US energy dominance plans roiled by trade uncertainty
Just 100 days into President Donald Trump's second term, oil prices have slumped over 20% to below many U.S. producers' breakeven costs as investors lose confidence amid tariff and policy uncertainty - undercutting Trump's push for U.S. energy dominance. Trump campaigned on the often repeated refrain of "drill, baby, drill" and moved on his first day in office on January 20 to maximize output in the U.S., the world's top oil and gas producer. His protectionist trade policy, however, has reduced oil demand growth forecasts, and lower international energy prices have soured the outlook for the industry. Benchmark U.S. crude prices have plummeted to around $60 a barrel, a low not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, and below the $65 level that many oil producers say they need to make money. Over half of the decline occurred since Trump's "Liberation Day" on April 2 when he declared a minimum 10% tariff on U.S. imports, prompting expectations that the global economy would slow. "The macro environment has gotten much worse, thanks to the tariffs and policy uncertainty," said Ben Cahill, director at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis at the University of Texas at Austin. "Energy dominance requires investor confidence," he added. The Trump administration has also imposed sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales, including on China-based energy facilities, in an attempt to help prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon and funding militant groups across the Middle East. While the sanctions provided some support to oil prices, they added to market uncertainty. Citing U.S. tariffs, forecasters across the board, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, OPEC and major banks, have cut their oil price and demand growth outlooks. OPEC+'s decision to speed up output hikes this spring exacerbated the price fall. Yet, Trump had called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil just days after he took office. As a result of the price slump, U.S. crude producers - who were pumping some 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in April and are expected to pump 13.5 million bpd in 2025, down from previous forecasts - are already putting the brakes on drilling new wells. "Trump and his energy team seem to think U.S. producers will drill through the uncertainty that's been created. They won't, and hoping they will is a poor calculus," Roe Patterson, former CEO of oilfield company Basic Energy Services and managing partner at Marauder Capital, wrote in a LinkedIn post. A Department of Energy spokesperson said Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright are committed to expanding American energy infrastructure, in response to a request for comment for this story. LNG COMES OUT ON TOP Natural gas, and its liquefied state, LNG, have fared better than oil under Trump. On his first day in office, Trump ordered the resumption of LNG export approvals - something former President Joe Biden had paused - and has started rolling back environmental regulations that slowed projects. Several companies have announced investments in recent months, including Australia's Woodside Energy, which gave final approval to build a $17.5 billion LNG project and cited Trump's desire for "American energy dominance." The EIA in April forecast average U.S. LNG exports would reach 15.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024 and higher than the outlook before the Trump administration. Tariffs on steel and aluminum, however, will increase project costs, adding to labor, financing and equipment inflation, said Jason Feer, the head of business intelligence at Poten and Partners. CLEAN ENERGY HIT Trump's policies have favored the fossil fuel sector over the low-carbon energy industry. On his first day, he ordered the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and suspended new federal offshore wind leasing, casting doubt on the viability of dozens of planned developments. Trump has also attempted to expand electricity generated by fossil fuels through deregulation and executive actions that loosen power plant emissions rules. Boosting coal-generated electricity, which now makes up less than 20% of supplies versus an over 50% share in 2010, will be difficult and does not make economic sense. Coal has lost market share to gas, wind and solar power. The average coal power plant is around 50 years old, and big utilities have no plans for new ones. "Federal policy now clearly favors oil, gas, and other fossil energy sources, while disfavoring renewable energy sources that had enjoyed incentives and other favorable treatment under the prior administration," said David Amerikaner, partner at law firm Duane Morris. (Reporting by Stephanie Kelly, Tim Gardner, Curtis Williams, Scott DiSavino and Laila Kearney; Editing by Liz Hampton and Marguerita Choy)
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
In Trump's first 100 days, US energy dominance plans roiled by trade uncertainty
By Stephanie Kelly, Timothy Gardner and Curtis Williams NEW YORK (Reuters) -Just 100 days into President Donald Trump's second term, oil prices have slumped over 20% to below many U.S. producers' breakeven costs as investors lose confidence amid tariff and policy uncertainty - undercutting Trump's push for U.S. energy dominance. Trump campaigned on the often repeated refrain of "drill, baby, drill" and moved on his first day in office on January 20 to maximize output in the U.S., the world's top oil and gas producer. His protectionist trade policy, however, has reduced oil demand growth forecasts, and lower international energy prices have soured the outlook for the industry. Benchmark U.S. crude prices have plummeted to around $60 a barrel, a low not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, and below the $65 level that many oil producers say they need to make money. Over half of the decline occurred since Trump's "Liberation Day" on April 2 when he declared a minimum 10% tariff on U.S. imports, prompting expectations that the global economy would slow. "The macro environment has gotten much worse, thanks to the tariffs and policy uncertainty," said Ben Cahill, director at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis at the University of Texas at Austin. "Energy dominance requires investor confidence," he added. The Trump administration has also imposed sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales, including on China-based energy facilities, in an attempt to help prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon and funding militant groups across the Middle East. While the sanctions provided some support to oil prices, they added to market uncertainty. Citing U.S. tariffs, forecasters across the board, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, OPEC and major banks, have cut their oil price and demand growth outlooks. OPEC+'s decision to speed up output hikes this spring exacerbated the price fall. Yet, Trump had called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil just days after he took office. As a result of the price slump, U.S. crude producers - who were pumping some 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in April and are expected to pump 13.5 million bpd in 2025, down from previous forecasts - are already putting the brakes on drilling new wells. "Trump and his energy team seem to think U.S. producers will drill through the uncertainty that's been created. They won't, and hoping they will is a poor calculus," Roe Patterson, former CEO of oilfield company Basic Energy Services and managing partner at Marauder Capital, wrote in a LinkedIn post. A Department of Energy spokesperson said Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright are committed to expanding American energy infrastructure, in response to a request for comment for this story. LNG COMES OUT ON TOP Natural gas, and its liquefied state, LNG, have fared better than oil under Trump. On his first day in office, Trump ordered the resumption of LNG export approvals - something former President Joe Biden had paused - and has started rolling back environmental regulations that slowed projects. Several companies have announced investments in recent months, including Australia's Woodside Energy, which gave final approval to build a $17.5 billion LNG project and cited Trump's desire for "American energy dominance." The EIA in April forecast average U.S. LNG exports would reach 15.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024 and higher than the outlook before the Trump administration. Tariffs on steel and aluminum, however, will increase project costs, adding to labor, financing and equipment inflation, said Jason Feer, the head of business intelligence at Poten and Partners. CLEAN ENERGY HIT Trump's policies have favored the fossil fuel sector over the low-carbon energy industry. On his first day, he ordered the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and suspended new federal offshore wind leasing, casting doubt on the viability of dozens of planned developments. Trump has also attempted to expand electricity generated by fossil fuels through deregulation and executive actions that loosen power plant emissions rules. Boosting coal-generated electricity, which now makes up less than 20% of supplies versus an over 50% share in 2010, will be difficult and does not make economic sense. Coal has lost market share to gas, wind and solar power. The average coal power plant is around 50 years old, and big utilities have no plans for new ones. "Federal policy now clearly favors oil, gas, and other fossil energy sources, while disfavoring renewable energy sources that had enjoyed incentives and other favorable treatment under the prior administration," said David Amerikaner, partner at law firm Duane Morris.
Reuters
30-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
In Trump's first 100 days, US energy dominance plans roiled by trade uncertainty
NEW YORK, April 30 (Reuters) - Just 100 days into President Donald Trump's second term, oil prices have slumped over 20% to below many U.S. producers' breakeven costs as investors lose confidence amid tariff and policy uncertainty - undercutting Trump's push for U.S. energy dominance. Trump campaigned on the often repeated refrain of "drill, baby, drill" and moved on his first day in office on January 20 to maximize output in the U.S., the world's top oil and gas producer. here. His protectionist trade policy, however, has reduced oil demand growth forecasts, and lower international energy prices have soured the outlook for the industry. Benchmark U.S. crude prices have plummeted to around $60 a barrel, a low not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, and below the $65 level that many oil producers say they need to make money. Over half of the decline occurred since Trump's "Liberation Day" on April 2 when he declared a minimum 10% tariff on U.S. imports, prompting expectations that the global economy would slow. "The macro environment has gotten much worse, thanks to the tariffs and policy uncertainty," said Ben Cahill, director at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis at the University of Texas at Austin. "Energy dominance requires investor confidence," he added. The Trump administration has also imposed sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales, including on China-based energy facilities, in an attempt to help prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon and funding militant groups across the Middle East. While the sanctions provided some support to oil prices, they added to market uncertainty. Citing U.S. tariffs, forecasters across the board, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, OPEC and major banks, have cut their oil price and demand growth outlooks. OPEC+'s decision to speed up output hikes this spring exacerbated the price fall. Yet, Trump had called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil just days after he took office. As a result of the price slump, U.S. crude producers - who were pumping some 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in April and are expected to pump 13.5 million bpd in 2025, down from previous forecasts - are already putting the brakes on drilling new wells. "Trump and his energy team seem to think U.S. producers will drill through the uncertainty that's been created. They won't, and hoping they will is a poor calculus," Roe Patterson, former CEO of oilfield company Basic Energy Services and managing partner at Marauder Capital, wrote in a LinkedIn post. A Department of Energy spokesperson said Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright are committed to expanding American energy infrastructure, in response to a request for comment for this story. LNG COMES OUT ON TOP Natural gas, and its liquefied state, LNG, have fared better than oil under Trump. On his first day in office, Trump ordered the resumption of LNG export approvals - something former President Joe Biden had paused - and has started rolling back environmental regulations that slowed projects. Several companies have announced investments in recent months, including Australia's Woodside Energy ( opens new tab, which gave final approval to build a $17.5 billion LNG project and cited Trump's desire for "American energy dominance." The EIA in April forecast average U.S. LNG exports would reach 15.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024 and higher than the outlook before the Trump administration. Tariffs on steel and aluminum, however, will increase project costs, adding to labor, financing and equipment inflation, said Jason Feer, the head of business intelligence at Poten and Partners. CLEAN ENERGY HIT Trump's policies have favored the fossil fuel sector over the low-carbon energy industry. On his first day, he ordered the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and suspended new federal offshore wind leasing, casting doubt on the viability of dozens of planned developments. Trump has also attempted to expand electricity generated by fossil fuels through deregulation and executive actions that loosen power plant emissions rules. Boosting coal-generated electricity, which now makes up less than 20% of supplies versus an over 50% share in 2010, will be difficult and does not make economic sense. Coal has lost market share to gas, wind and solar power. The average coal power plant is around 50 years old, and big utilities have no plans for new ones. "Federal policy now clearly favors oil, gas, and other fossil energy sources, while disfavoring renewable energy sources that had enjoyed incentives and other favorable treatment under the prior administration," said David Amerikaner, partner at law firm Duane Morris.
Axios
22-02-2025
- Business
- Axios
Why oil markets are calm in Trump's global storm
Seismic policy shifts underway in Trump 2.0 are having surprisingly little effect on oil prices so far. Why it matters: Crude costs ripple across the economy. And their movement signals what traders think about how policy upheaval will — or won't — change supply and demand. The big picture: Oil has traded in a narrow range since President Trump's election, with Brent mostly chilling in the $70-$80-ish band, and prices were also pretty stable throughout 2024. That's especially true compared to huge swings when COVID crushed demand in 2020 and then Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine sent prices skyward (check out the chart above). State of play: There's no shortage of market-moving news lately, including tariffs, but lots of it rows in opposing directions. Trump's hopes to boost supply with a "drill baby drill" blitz, though macroeconomic forces influence oil companies more than regulatory changes. A near-term surge doesn't look likely. Trump is also pushing for more Saudi barrels but plans to ratchet up Iran sanctions enforcement, which could take lots of supply off the market. What they're saying:"The market is tuning out a lot of policy pronouncements from Washington, because there are conflicting signals," oil expert Ben Cahill of UT-Austin tells me via email. "Will Trump offer sanctions relief for Moscow? Will he tighten the screws on Iran and restrict supply? Hard to tell," said Cahill, who's with the school's Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis. The current price band could also have a self-sustaining energy. Cahill notes that macro concerns are keeping prices below $80, and he calls $75-$80 the "Goldilocks" zone. That means "high enough to keep producers humming, but not so high that prices harm economies and depress growth." Friction point: Tariffs against trading partners create headwinds that can hurt demand. But then there's the added wrinkle of whether Trump will actually follow through on a given threat — including against Canada, a huge oil supplier to U.S. refineries. "Tariffs are legitimately a mixed bag for oil prices," Clayton Seigle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies tells me. " The supply side is bullish because refiners' costs will increase, but the demand side is bearish as trade wars threaten to pull down GDP and oil demand along with it," Seigle, a senior fellow in energy security, said via email. What we're watching: Trump's efforts to negotiate an end to Russia's war on Ukraine, with sanctions relief reportedly on the table, are yet another variable. The intrigue: The calm isn't limited to oil. Lots of asset classes have been fairly stable. The only ones really moving this year are hedges against tariffs and inflation — think gold prices breaking records like they're going out of style. The bottom line:"The noise-to-signal ratio is overwhelming oil traders," Seigle said. "Headlines with conflicting implications for supply-demand balances are coming too fast for traders and portfolio managers to effectively process."
