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The Star
3 days ago
- Business
- The Star
US-India tensions cast doubt on future of Quad, as well as possible Trump visit
As trade tensions between Washington and New Delhi escalate, an anticipated high-profile visit of US President Donald Trump to India this fall is now clouded by uncertainty. The rift that is testing a relationship between what their diplomats sometimes tout as the world's oldest and largest democracies is not only weakening bilateral ties, but also casting doubt on the future of a critical Indo-Pacific bloc aimed at countering China's growing influence in the region. The White House has been pressing India for substantive 'deliverables' the 'America first' president could announce during the trip, planned for the Quad leaders' summit in September or October, according to a person familiar with preparations for a summit. Initially, both sides had aimed to finalise a comprehensive trade agreement to coincide with the visit to give the occasion strategic and political momentum. However, the source said that without a trade breakthrough, it is increasingly unlikely that Trump will make the trip. The Quad, which also includes Japan and Australia, was formed in 2004 but remained dormant until 2017. Resurrected by Trump in his first term, the alliance was enthusiastically embraced by former US president Joe Biden as part of his Indo-Pacific strategy. Under Biden, the bloc was elevated to leaders' level in 2021. Trump threatened to 'substantially' increase tariffs for India in the 'next 24 hours' on Tuesday, after having berated India in recent days for making 'massive' oil purchases from Russia. According to another person familiar with Indian thinking, Trump's attacks have left New Delhi 'bitter'. During the five rounds of talks between April 2 and July, New Delhi had sought 'preferential' trade treatment because of its status as a reliable partner to the US in the Indo-Pacific as the Biden administration portrayed India as a democratic regional counterweight to China. However, Trump has remained firm in his demand for full market access, showing little willingness to acknowledge New Delhi's strategic role in countering Beijing's influence, slapping Indian imports with 25 per cent tariffs. Experts say a breakdown in US-India trade negotiations, coupled with potential cancellation of Trump's New Delhi visit, could hand Beijing a strategic Indo-Pacific win. Lisa Curtis, who served as deputy assistant to the president and senior director for South and Central Asia during Trump's first term from 2017 to 2021, said that Trump was 'ignoring the bigger geopolitical picture and the larger challenges to US national security' because of his 'narrow' focus on tariffs and trade balance. Curtis, now director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for New American Security in Washington, said 'the security imperative to counter growing Chinese military power and influence requires the United States to draw countries like India into a closer embrace with the United States, not pick fights to try to gain better market access.' She described the Quad as an effective mechanism to promote activities and policies in the Indo-Pacific that support US interests, such as countering Chinese economic and military coercion, adding that 'if US-India trade talks break down and Trump cancels his visit to India, this would be a clear win for China.' 'The first Trump administration successfully elevated the US-India relationship and built strategic trust and confidence in the relationship. The second Trump administration's lack of strategic perspective on US-India ties threatens to undermine that progress,' Curtis said. According to Wendy Cutler, a former American diplomat and trade negotiator, the growing trade friction between Washington and New Delhi 'calls into question the timing of a Quad Leaders' meeting' and is 'not helpful as preparations are being discussed'. 'The prospect of announcing the successful conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement undoubtedly made a visit to India by the President more compelling than just a Quad Leaders' meeting,' said Cutler, now vice-president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a Washington think tank. She added that India and other US trading partners were aware of Trump's fixation with trade and tariffs and there was hope that 'over time issues on strategic cooperation will move to the forefront'. Christopher Clary, a political science professor at the State University of New York's University at Albany, said the Quad is 'less important now for Washington than it was in the Biden administration or the first Trump term'. He said the bloc remains useful to have a 'frequent gathering of the most economically and militarily capable democracies in Asia,' and that if Quad members do not align their strategies 'China will have greater room to enhance its global and regional influence'. Curtis said it is possible the US and India could still conclude a trade deal by September to pave the way for a Trump visit to India in the autumn. 'The prospects for a deal at the moment, however, look somewhat bleak,' she said, adding that Trump's repeated criticisms of India are 'backing Prime Minister [Narendra] Modi into a corner, making it increasingly difficult for him to be seen as making concessions.' According to Manjari Chatterjee Miller, a senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank in New York, 'unless Modi and Trump can reach an agreement, this is an incredibly destabilising moment for the US-India relationship, and recovery will be difficult'. She said 'the last thing India wants is for a strong Russia-China relationship to develop at India's expense', adding that the US administrations over the past decade typically overlooked the Russia factor to build a strong relationship with India. 'China indeed could benefit from a tense US-India relationship,' Miller added. - SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
India Gazette
06-06-2025
- Politics
- India Gazette
"Useful briefing, heard India's perspective regarding Pahalgam attack": Center for New American Security Director on meeting delegation
Washington, DC [US], June 6 (ANI): Center for New American Security Director Lisa Curtis said that the briefing by the India's all party delegation was 'very useful' and they heard their perspective regarding the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam and India's response to the attack. Speaking to ANI, Curtis stated that the meeting was a good way to build understanding about what happened in India and why India responded this way. When asked about her meeting with all-party delegation, she stated, 'I think this was a very useful briefing by a diverse group of Indian parliamentarians, and we heard what their priorities are with the US- India relationship, and we also heard their perspective on the horrific terrorist attack that happened on April 22 in Kashmir and then we heard about India's response to that horrific terrorist attack.' 'On May 7, and so I think it was a good way to build understanding about what happened in India, why India responded the way it did, and I think that what we heard is there is large agreement between the US and India when it comes to countering terrorism, that you cannot stand back when you are attacked by terrorists, that there must be a response or the terrorists are just going to come back and do the same thing again,' she added. The all-party delegation, led by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, interacted with members of various think tanks at the Embassy of India at the US on Thursday (local time). 'The All Party Delegation led by Dr. @ShashiTharoor interacted with members of various think tanks at the Embassy today. The conversation focused on India's fight against terrorism and the multi-faceted India-US partnership,' Indian Embassy at the US posted on X. Shashi Tharoor is leading the all-party delegation which includes Shambhavi Chaudhary (Lok Janshakti Party), Sarfaraz Ahmed (Jharkhand Mukti Morcha), G M Harish Balayogi (Telugu Desam Party), Shashank Mani Tripathi, Tejasvi Surya, and Bhubaneswar Kalita (all from the BJP), Mallikarjun Devda (Shiv Sena), former Indian Ambassador to the US Taranjit Singh Sandhu, and Shiv Sena MP Milind Deora. During interaction with think tanks and young professionals, Shashi Tharoor said that the delegation has received solidarity and understanding at everywhere they went. He reiterated India's stance that 'there will be a price to pay' if terrorist attacks like this are carried out in India. He said, 'And I'm very pleased to say that everywhere we went and I could say this quite confidently without exception, we have received both of what we sought. We have received understanding and we have received solidarity. And these two things are really what we came for. We will continue to meet others during the remaining time today and tomorrow. I want to stress one thing, and then I'll be very happy to open it up for discussions, and that thing is quite simply that this is not something we would really have wanted to spend our time on. 'We are a country focused on growth and development. Our focus has entirely been on the economic advances that are so essential to pull a few the few people who remain below the poverty line in our country out below that and to take the rest into the developed India of our dreams. But, sadly, when this kind of thing is done to us, and for very cynical motives, which I think are pretty apparent so I won't spell them out, it was necessary for us to show that we will not allow people to cross the border and kill our citizens with impunity. That for terror strikes like this, which show all the hallmarks of meticulous planning and military style execution, that there will be a price to pay. And that was very strongly the message that we sent.' The all-party delegation reached the US after completing their visit to Brazil. The diplomatic effort is part of India's broader global outreach following Operation Sindoor, launched on May 7 as a military response to the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam by Pakistan-sponsored terrorists, which claimed 26 lives and injured several others. Subsequently, the Indian Armed Forces carried out strikes targeting terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of over 100 terrorists affiliated with groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Hizbul Mujahideen. (ANI)
