Latest news with #CenterfortheU.S.andMexico
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs creating uncertainty in Texas as report shows slower revenue growth since late 2024
Texas local businesses reported slower revenue growth since late last year, sparking uncertainty over President Donald Trump's policies on tariffs and concerns of a possible recession, according to a report released by the Dallas Federal Reserve on Thursday. As the nation's leading trade state, Texas has been significantly impacted by the higher tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China imposed earlier this year by Trump's administration. 'The uncertainty index for both manufacturers and service sector companies jumped in March to levels not seen since late 2022, during the height of the pandemic,' the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) report stated. Nearly half of Texas businesses surveyed expressed concerns that rising costs could reduce consumer demand and push the state into a recession. Among those hit hardest are manufacturers, many of whom reported difficulties maintaining production levels. The Texas service-sector was also affected: its revenue growth has been declining since late 2024, reaching zero by March, according to TBOS respondents. The Trade Partnership Worldwide, an international research firm, estimates that the tariffs could cost Texas businesses $47 billion and cut the state's gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 1.5 percentage points. Researchers predict that this decline in economic growth could lead to the loss of approximately 100,000 jobs. Tony Payan, the executive director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, said that tariffs are 'going to hit Texans very hard.' 'We have to remember that 40% to 50%, depending on the season, of our agricultural produce comes from Mexico,' said Payan. 'Tariffs on cucumbers or strawberries or avocados, other Mexican fruits and vegetables, they have no easy and quickly available import substitution opportunity. So inflation is going to be very hard to control.' Payan added that 'the Texas government and congressional delegation should have been a lot more assertive in pushing back against the White House and President Trump.' 'They're too quiet, and there is too much economic activity at stake being put at risk, and there are too many Texans who are going to be affected by losing their job or by losing their export markets and inflation,' said Payan. With $850 billion in trade in 2024, Texas relies heavily on international commerce, the Dallas Federal Reserve reports. Mexico is the state's largest trading partner, accounting for $281 billion in trade last year. The increased cost of imports is expected to have significant ripple effects, particularly for industries along the Texas-Mexico border. In April, President Trump announced a new 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports, along with additional duties on specific countries, which has sparked debate among Texas politicians. U.S. Rep. Roger Williams, R-TX, defended the tariffs, arguing that they will benefit American industries. 'For too long, America's past policies have put the U.S. auto industry at a disadvantage,' Williams wrote on X on Wednesday. He added that the tariffs would 'increase competition, boost revenue, and bring back American jobs.' Not all Texas leaders agree with Williams. San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg, speaking at a trade summit in Washington, D.C., alongside mayors from Canada and Mexico, voiced opposition to the administration's trade policies. 'We're here to speak out against Trump's unprovoked trade wars and tariffs that he is threatening to pursue,' Nirenberg said in a video posted on his X account on March 28. He stressed that the tariffs put hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk. 'One in five jobs in Texas depends on international trade, and within the automotive sector alone, 300,000 jobs are on the line.' Disclosure: Rice University and Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here. Tickets are on sale now for the 15th annual Texas Tribune Festival, Texas' breakout ideas and politics event happening Nov. 13–15 in downtown Austin. Get tickets before May 1 and save big! TribFest 2025 is presented by JPMorganChase.
Axios
04-03-2025
- Business
- Axios
Trade war escalation: San Antonio faces big blow from Trump's tariffs
Texas stands to take the hardest hit of any state under the Trump tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, leaving businesses and consumers bracing for higher prices and economic fallout. Why it matters: If foreign goods cost 25% more, someone has to absorb the difference — either businesses or consumers. Some estimates suggest the new tariffs could cost the average U.S. household $830 a year — and that's before factoring in likely retaliatory tariffs. State of play: President Trump triggered a global trade war yesterday by slapping 25% tariffs on exports from Canada and Mexico and 20% on China. The tariffs on imported goods could cost the Texas economy an estimated $47 billion, per economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide. The big picture: The tariffs will affect big-ticket items like cars and machinery, but also consumer staples, including groceries and beer. The impact will be especially sharp on goods that are harder to produce domestically, including agricultural products. Threat level: Because Texas is deeply integrated with supply chains — from Mexico, in particular — the state will more heavily feel the strain, Tony Payan, the director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico at the Baker Institute, tells Axios. "Because Texas is the origin, destination or transit point of two-thirds of binational trade, clearly, Texas will be more affected than other states that are not as integrated," he says. The other side: Trump campaigned on using tariffs to revive domestic industries. Zoom in: Texas-based automotive giants Toyota in San Antonio and General Motors in Arlington face mounting pressure. Mayor Ron Nirenberg joined Arlington Mayor Jim Ross in warning that rising production costs could lead to higher car prices, weakened demand and potential job losses in both cities.
Axios
04-03-2025
- Business
- Axios
Trade war escalation: Texas to face the biggest blow from Trump's tariffs
Texas stands to take the hardest hit of any state under the Trump tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, leaving businesses and consumers bracing for higher prices and economic fallout. Why it matters: If foreign goods cost 25% more, someone has to absorb the difference — either businesses or consumers. Some estimates suggest the new tariffs could cost the average U.S. household $830 a year — and that's before factoring in likely retaliatory tariffs from Canada, China and Mexico. State of play: Trump triggered a global trade war with the biggest U.S. trade partners on Tuesday by slapping 25% tariffs on exports from Canada and Mexico and 20% on China. The tariffs on imported goods could cost the Texas economy an estimated $47 billion, per economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide. The big picture: The tariffs will affect big-ticket items like cars and machinery, but also consumer staples — everything from groceries to beer and oats. The impact will be especially sharp on goods that are harder to produce domestically, including agricultural products. Threat level: Because Texas is deeply integrated with supply chains — from Mexico, in particular — the state will more heavily feel the strain, Tony Payan, the director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico at the Baker Institute, tells Axios. "Because Texas is the origin, destination or transit point of two-thirds of binational trade, clearly, Texas will be more affected than other states that are not as integrated," he says. What they're saying: "Texas values the strong economic partnerships we have built with Mexico and Canada, our two largest trading partners," Justin Yancy, president of the Texas Business Leadership Council said in a statement. "The imposition of these tariffs on our neighboring countries will disrupt supply chains, increase costs for businesses and families and create unnecessary barriers to economic cooperation," Yancy added. Glenn Hamer, president and CEO of the Texas Association of Business, told Texas Public Radio that his organization is very concerned tariffs will "harm what has been record employment in the state of Texas." "And I'll also say we're concerned for the consumer," Hamer added. Case in point: Texas-based automotive giants General Motors in Arlington and Toyota in San Antonio face mounting pressure. Arlington Mayor Jim Ross and San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg warn that rising production costs could lead to higher car prices, weakened demand and potential job losses in their cities. Zoom in: China is Houston's top trade partner, followed by Mexico, with $31.8 billion and $28.7 billion, respectively, in trade value in 2023, according to the Greater Houston Partnership. If Mexico retaliates with its own tariffs, Houston's oil and gas industry — which supplies oil to Mexico — will take a hit, Payan says. What we're watching: How the cards fall, how businesses respond, which countries retaliate and how it'll impact Americans wallets.
