Latest news with #CentralAmericanGyre
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Florida isn't in the path, but could the Pacific's first system signal a busy hurricane season?
The first tropical system of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has formed — and while it won't impact Florida, forecasters say it's a sign of what's to come. Tropical Depression One-E, which developed shortly after the Eastern Pacific season began on May 15, is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Alvin and make landfall in Mexico early next week, according to FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner. Why you should care According to Garner, this indicates that the general region, including the Caribbean, is finally warm enough to support a tropical system. Some models suggest (as they often do this time of year) that the Central American Gyre (a semi-permanent low pressure that can form over Central America) may spin off some energy that could become a tropical system in the western Caribbean in mid-June. What we know The Climate Prediction Center has forecast the highlighted region below as one to watch in mid-June for tropical development. It's too soon to say not only whether it will happen, but also what it could become or where it might lead – as models are all over the place, typical for early-season potential. The Central American Gyre is a semi-permanent low pressure system that sits over Central America this time of year and can "spin off" little bits of energy that can grow into tropical systems. That's what the scenario here would be. These are notoriously difficult to forecast because, 8 times out of 10, the models forecasting cyclogenesis are just – wrong. But, the table is set with warm water, low wind shear and favorable atmospheric conditions. MORE | Tracking The Tropics: FOX 35 2025 Hurricane Season Preview The season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2025. However, it is possible for a rare system to develop outside those timeframes. The "peak" of the Atlantic hurricane season is typically Sept. 10, though tropica activity increases between mid-August through mid-October. According to the National Hurricane Center, the first named tropical storm of a season typically happens in mid-to-late June. The first hurricane typically happens in early-to-mid August, while the first major hurricane (Cat. 3 or stronger) happens in late August or early September. RELATED | NOAA 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that the 2025 season will be more active than average. However, it is predicted to be less busy than in 2024. NOAA's hurricane forecast: 13-19 named storms 6-10 hurricanes 3-5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher) 14 named storms 9 hurricanes 4 major hurricanes Here are the tropical cyclone names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Click here to view the pronunciation guide. Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 35 ORLANDO: Download the FOX Local app for breaking news alerts, the latest news headlines Download the FOX 35 Storm Team Weather app for weather alerts & radar Sign up for FOX 35's daily newsletter for the latest morning headlines FOX Local:Stream FOX 35 newscasts, FOX 35 News+, Central Florida Eats on your smart TV The Source This story was written based on information shared by the FOX 35 Storm Team on May 29, 2025.
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Tropical outlook quiet to start Atlantic hurricane season, but there may be a window for potential
As June ushers in the official start of the Atlantic basin hurricane season, attention is once again turning to the tropics in search of the first signs of development. Similar to patterns observed over the past three years, the season is expected to begin on a quiet note, with no named storms forecast to form in the opening days of the month. However, the big question is whether the rest of June will follow suit. To help answer that question, forecasters often consult a variety of products, including tracking what is known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or what is commonly called the MJO. This eastward-moving pulse of enhanced rainfall and lower atmospheric pressure typically circles the globe every 30 to 60 days and can significantly influence tropical weather patterns. The Mjo is divided into eight phases, each affecting different regions of the globe. When the MJO is in phases 8, 1 or 2, it generally leads to enhanced activity over the Atlantic basin and, if other conditions align, can increase the chances of tropical cyclone formation. Pattern Emerges In Tropics For First Time In More Than 20 Years Because of the MJO's current location and timing, forecasters expect only one favorable window for development in the Atlantic basin during June. This period is likely to occur in the second half of the month, and the Caribbean and the Gulf are the most probable areas of interest. This region is climatologically favored for development due to the presence of features that can aid in the formation of tropical cyclones, such as old frontal boundaries or the Central American Gyre, a large area of lower pressure. The latest outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center points to a potentially favorable environment for tropical development during weeks two and three of the month. While the outlook does not guarantee a named storm will form, it will lead to increased tropical moisture over Central America, Mexico, and possibly as far north as the Gulf Coast. By late June and early July, atmospheric conditions may again become less conducive to development as the MJO continues its eastward progression around the globe. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Guide: Here's What To Know About The Tropics This Year The formation date of the season's first named storm can be an important indicator of what's to come. Statistically, when the first named storm forms before June 20, it often signals a more active season ahead. On the other hand, if the season reaches early July without a named storm, it may serve as an indicator of a quieter-than-average year. The last time the first named storm formed on or after June 20 was in 2014, when Arthur developed on July 1. The year ended up being relatively subdued, with only eight named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes - all well below the seasonal averages. Although the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, losing the entire first month to inactivity effectively removes more than 16% of the season's duration. This lost time cannot be regained later in the year, as water temperatures typically decline and atmospheric stability increases, making storm formation less likely. So, while the start of the 2025 hurricane season appears tranquil, forecasters will be closely monitoring the MJO and other key indicators in the coming weeks for any early hints of article source: Tropical outlook quiet to start Atlantic hurricane season, but there may be a window for potential
New York Post
08-05-2025
- Climate
- New York Post
First storm of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could develop before June
While the Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially begin until June 1, the FOX Forecast Center will be monitoring the Caribbean Sea during the second half of May for any signs of preseason development. Computer model forecasts suggest a broad area of low pressure could develop in the vicinity of Central America by late next week and into the following weekend. Advertisement 'There is consensus among the various computer model forecasts that a broad area of low pressure will develop from the Pacific across Central America to Colombia,' FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. Any potential tropical threat could be linked to a phenomenon known as the Central American Gyre, which has historically contributed to tropical storm formation in the Caribbean or the Gulf in late spring or early fall. The gyre is a sprawling area of low pressure that feeds off moisture streaming in from the Pacific Ocean and forms near or over Central America. At its core, it is a heavy rain producer with impacts extending outwards hundreds of miles and leading to threats of torrential rainfall, flooding, and landslides for more than a dozen countries in and around Central America. Advertisement 5 Any potential tropical threat could be linked to a phenomenon known as the Central American Gyre, which has historically contributed to tropical storm formation in the Caribbean or the Gulf. VIA BLOOMBERG NEWS In some cases, organized low-pressure centers can develop within the large gyre if water temperatures and upper-level winds become favorable for tropical development. Both early and late in the hurricane season – or sometimes even before and after the official six-month season – are the periods most notorious for allowing a tropical disturbance to break away from Central America and form into a tropical depression or storm in either the Eastern Pacific, Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf) or western Caribbean Sea. However, Norcross cautioned that the odds of any system tracking north or northeastward into the southern Gulf as a tropical depression or storm are low. Advertisement 5 The gyre is a sprawling area of low pressure that feeds off moisture streaming in from the Pacific Ocean and forms near or over Central America. FOX Weather 'The GFS (American model) is an outlier in pulling an organized system north into the Caribbean and developing a tropical low in the Pacific,' he said. 'We have seen this kind of over-eager development in the long-range time periods by the GFS many times, so it's best to ignore it without any support from the conventional models or the new artificial intelligence (AI) models.' Preseason tropical development happened in 8 of the past 10 hurricane seasons 5 June 1 marks the official start date for the Atlantic hurricane season, but tropical cyclones can occasionally develop before then. FOX Weather June 1 marks the official start date for the Atlantic hurricane season, but tropical cyclones can occasionally develop before then. The most favored areas for tropical development in May are the western Caribbean Sea, the Gulf, and near the southeastern U.S. coast. Advertisement Since 1851, 43 systems of at least tropical storm intensity (sustained winds of 39 mph or higher) have developed in the Atlantic Basin between Jan. 1 and May 31, according to NOAA's historical hurricane tracks database. That's an average of approximately one preseason tropical cyclone every four years. 5 The FOX Forecast Center said it will be monitoring the Caribbean Sea during the second half of May for any signs of preseason development. FOX Weather Most recently, an unnamed subtropical storm in January 2023 kicked off that year's Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center determined in a May 2023 reassessment of the storm. Before that, there was a seven-year stretch between 2015 and 2021 in which at least one tropical storm or hurricane developed in the Atlantic before June 1. That means only the 2022 and 2024 hurricane seasons haven't spawned a preseason storm over the past decade. 2025 Atlantic hurricane season expected to be another busy one 5 A vehicle is left abandoned in floodwater on a highway after Hurricane Beryl swept through the area on July 08, 2024 in Houston, Texas. Getty Images Early outlooks for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season suggest another above-average season is on the way, so any tropical development before June would likely only boost forecasters' confidence in their sobering predictions. In an outlook released on April 3, the team of tropical experts at Colorado State University (CSU) called for 17 named storms, nine of which are expected to become hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes could reach major status, with winds of at least 111 mph (Category 3 or higher). Advertisement These predictions from CSU are above the 30-year average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The Herald Scotland
08-05-2025
- Climate
- The Herald Scotland
Hurricane tracker updates: Forecasters spot first signs of danger
"We're starting to get into that time of year where we need to keep an eye on the Caribbean," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said May 6. "At the very least, a wetter pattern down across Central America and then up into the Western Caribbean is expected." Hurricane season officially starts June 1, but storms can and do form before that date. What is the Central American Gyre? A large, slow-spinning area in the atmosphere could develop somewhere around Central America, overlapping with part of the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean around the middle of May, AccuWeather said. This phenomenon, known as the Central American Gyre, can "sometimes lay the groundwork for a tropical depression or tropical storm formation." According to the Weather Underground, Central American Gyres tend to develop on either end of the Atlantic hurricane season, as large-scale weather features rearrange themselves during the waxing and waning of northern summer. "They also tend to have relatively weak surface winds, but they can sprawl over hundreds of miles, and they are notoriously long-lasting and slow-moving, both of which make them dangerous rain producers," noted Weather Underground meteorologist Bob Henson in 2020. He added, "as smaller-scale vortexes spin around the gyre, there's always the chance that one or more will consolidate into a tropical cyclone and eventually break away from the gyre." AccuWeather said, "While the Central American gyre itself doesn't typically become a hurricane, it can provide the conditions for disturbances to develop into tropical depressions, storms, and even hurricanes." Could a storm affect the United States? "Right now, while we cannot rule it out, it does not look like a track to toward the U.S. is most likely," DaSilva said. Any risk would not be until at least May 20 and likely not until May 22." "Given the pattern, I think the most likely is it would just cross over Jamaica, Cuba, and then head out to sea," DaSilva said. If a tropical cyclone forms from the gyre, it would be named Andrea. More: Prepare now for hurricanes, Trump warns. Here's what you should do. How often do tropical storms develop in May? Outside of the traditional Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November, May is the most common month for tropical storms to develop, according to AccuWeather. Tropical Storm Bertha was the most recent tropical storm to make landfall in the United States in May; it hit South Carolina in May 2020. Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May.
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
First storm of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could develop before June
Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Generate Key Takeaways While the Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially begin until June 1, the FOX Forecast Center will be monitoring the Caribbean Sea during the second half of May for any signs of preseason development. Computer model forecasts suggest a broad area of low pressure could develop in the vicinity of Central America by late next week and into the following weekend. "There is consensus among the various computer model forecasts that a broad area of low pressure will develop from the Pacific across Central America to Colombia," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. Any potential tropical threat could be linked to a phenomenon known as the Central American Gyre, which has historically contributed to tropical storm formation in the Caribbean or the Gulf in late spring or early fall. Here's Why The Atlantic Hurricane Season Runs From June To November The gyre is a sprawling area of low pressure that feeds off moisture streaming in from the Pacific Ocean and forms near or over Central America. At its core, it is a heavy rain producer with impacts extending outwards hundreds of miles and leading to threats of torrential rainfall, flooding and landslides for more than a dozen countries in and around Central America. In some cases, organized low-pressure centers can develop within the large gyre if water temperatures and upper-level winds become favorable for tropical development. What Is The Central American Gyre? Long-range tropical outlook for May 15-26 from the FOX Forecast Center. Both early and late in the hurricane season – or sometimes even before and after the official six-month season – are the periods most notorious for allowing a tropical disturbance to break away from Central America and form into a tropical depression or storm in either the Eastern Pacific, Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf) or western Caribbean Sea. However, Norcross cautioned that the odds of any system tracking north or northeastward into the southern Gulf as a tropical depression or storm are low. "The GFS (American model) is an outlier in pulling an organized system north into the Caribbean and developing a tropical low in the Pacific," he said. "We have seen this kind of over-eager development in the long-range time periods by the GFS many times, so it's best to ignore it without any support from the conventional models or the new artificial intelligence (AI) models." It's Hurricane Preparedness Week. Here's How To Get Ready June 1 marks the official start date for the Atlantic hurricane season, but tropical cyclones can occasionally develop before then. The most favored areas for tropical development in May are the western Caribbean Sea, the Gulf and near the southeastern U.S. coast. Since 1851, 43 systems of at least tropical storm intensity (sustained winds of 39 mph or higher) have developed in the Atlantic Basin between Jan. 1 and May 31, according to NOAA's historical hurricane tracks database. That's an average of approximately one pre-season tropical cyclone every four years. Most recently, an unnamed subtropical storm in January 2023 kicked off that year's Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center determined in a May 2023 reassessment of the storm. Before that, there was a seven-year stretch between 2015 and 2021 in which at least one tropical storm or hurricane developed in the Atlantic before June 1. That means only the 2022 and 2024 hurricane seasons haven't spawned a preseason storm over the past decade. Where Tropical Storms And Hurricanes Typically Occur During Each Month Of Atlantic Hurricane Season The tracks of pre-June 1 named storms in the Atlantic from 2015 through 2021. Early outlooks for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season suggest another above-average season is on the way, so any tropical development before June would likely only boost forecasters' confidence in their sobering predictions. In an outlook released on April 3, the team of tropical experts at Colorado State University (CSU) called for 17 named storms, nine of which are expected to become hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes could reach major status, with winds of at least 111 mph (Category 3 or higher). Something A Bit Unusual Is Happening In The Tropics With Less Than A Month To Go Before Hurricane Season The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued by Colorado State University on Thursday, April 3, 2025. These predictions from CSU are above the 30-year average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Original article source: First storm of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could develop before June
