Florida isn't in the path, but could the Pacific's first system signal a busy hurricane season?
The first tropical system of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has formed — and while it won't impact Florida, forecasters say it's a sign of what's to come.
Tropical Depression One-E, which developed shortly after the Eastern Pacific season began on May 15, is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Alvin and make landfall in Mexico early next week, according to FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner.
Why you should care
According to Garner, this indicates that the general region, including the Caribbean, is finally warm enough to support a tropical system.
Some models suggest (as they often do this time of year) that the Central American Gyre (a semi-permanent low pressure that can form over Central America) may spin off some energy that could become a tropical system in the western Caribbean in mid-June.
What we know
The Climate Prediction Center has forecast the highlighted region below as one to watch in mid-June for tropical development.
It's too soon to say not only whether it will happen, but also what it could become or where it might lead – as models are all over the place, typical for early-season potential.
The Central American Gyre is a semi-permanent low pressure system that sits over Central America this time of year and can "spin off" little bits of energy that can grow into tropical systems. That's what the scenario here would be.
These are notoriously difficult to forecast because, 8 times out of 10, the models forecasting cyclogenesis are just – wrong. But, the table is set with warm water, low wind shear and favorable atmospheric conditions.
MORE | Tracking The Tropics: FOX 35 2025 Hurricane Season Preview
The season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2025. However, it is possible for a rare system to develop outside those timeframes. The "peak" of the Atlantic hurricane season is typically Sept. 10, though tropica activity increases between mid-August through mid-October.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the first named tropical storm of a season typically happens in mid-to-late June. The first hurricane typically happens in early-to-mid August, while the first major hurricane (Cat. 3 or stronger) happens in late August or early September.
RELATED | NOAA 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that the 2025 season will be more active than average. However, it is predicted to be less busy than in 2024.
NOAA's hurricane forecast:
13-19 named storms
6-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher)
14 named storms
9 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes
Here are the tropical cyclone names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Click here to view the pronunciation guide.
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dexter
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 35 ORLANDO:
Download the FOX Local app for breaking news alerts, the latest news headlines
Download the FOX 35 Storm Team Weather app for weather alerts & radar
Sign up for FOX 35's daily newsletter for the latest morning headlines
FOX Local:Stream FOX 35 newscasts, FOX 35 News+, Central Florida Eats on your smart TV
The Source
This story was written based on information shared by the FOX 35 Storm Team on May 29, 2025.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
How Hurricanes Hundreds Of Miles Away From The US Can Still Be A Danger For Beach Trips
A hurricane passing hundreds of miles offshore this summer means no big deal for your beach trip, right? Wrong. The ocean waters can still be a threat in the form of rip currents generated by distant hurricanes, as we've seen multiple times in recent years. -First, What Is A Rip Current? They are strong but narrow currents that flow away from the beach and pose a threat to all swimmers (even strong ones) by carrying them farther out to sea, possibly resulting in drowning or serious injury. Rip currents can develop at any beach with breaking waves. -How Distant Hurricanes Create A Rip Current Danger: Waves generated by strong winds near the center of a hurricane often propagate hundreds of miles away to the U.S. coastline in the form of swells. The example below shows the swells from a hurricane creating rough waters and a rip current danger along much of the East Coast as it passes offshore more than 500 miles away. -A Deceiving Beach Scenario: So while you might be enjoying a bright, sunny day at the beach in the scenario above, the hurricane-generated rip currents and high surf mean you should stay out of the ocean. -Lorenzo In 2019 A Radical Example: The hurricane passed nearly 2,000 miles away from the East Coast. High surf and rip currents from the hurricane's swells caused eight people to lose their lives from Rhode Island to Florida. -Other Recent Hurricanes: Lee in 2023, Larry in 2021 and Teddy and Paulette in 2020 are some other examples of hurricanes that passed near Bermuda, or even farther east, that still caused deadly rip currents on the East Coast. -Last Year, Too: Tropical Storm Alberto tracked into Mexico in June 2024, but contributed to a rip current death on the Texas Gulf Coast near Galveston. Hurricane Ernesto's track near Bermuda in August 2024 generated rip currents that claimed three lives along the Southeast coast, including Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, and Surf City, North Carolina. -Heed Warnings And Forecasts: Anytime you're headed to any beach, you should be aware of the rip current risk each day, no matter whether a distant offshore hurricane is present or not. If in doubt, just stay out of the ocean until you can get further informed. -Ways To Get Informed: There are color-coded flags placed on many beaches each day to communicate the current threat. A green flag (low risk) indicates that strong rip currents are not likely. A yellow flag (moderate risk) means that there is a good chance for strong rip currents and a red flag (high risk) signals that strong rip currents are expected. You can also get a daily rip current forecast from NOAA, and the National Hurricane Center will provide maps starting in 2025 to convey the threat posed by active tropical systems. -What To Do If Caught In A Rip Current: Remain calm to conserve energy and don't try to swim against the current. Think of it as a treadmill that can't be turned off, which you need to step to the side of. Swim out of the current in a direction parallel to the shoreline, or toward breaking waves. From there, swim at an angle toward the beach once out of the current. If you are unable to swim out of a rip current, float or calmly tread water. Once you are out of the current, swim toward shore. Draw attention to yourself by waving your arm and yelling for help if you feel you will be unable to reach the shore. Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with for nearly 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
A Long-Time Meteorologist Shared A Chilling Example Of How Trump's Budget Cuts Will Hurt Weather Predictions
An Emmy-winning TV meteorologist of over three decades is sounding the alarm on the Trump administration's unprecedented cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ahead of what is expected to be an intense 2025 hurricane season. Florida's John Morales, forecaster at Miami-based news station NBC 6, spoke about the changes Sunday by pointing to the accuracy of a report he was able to give six years ago. Morales played a clip of himself speaking about Hurricane Dorian, which followed the coastline up Florida and along the Southeastern U.S. in 2019. Initially, its movements made it appear like it was on track to smash right into South Florida. 'There is a lot of anxiety out there, because you don't see it turning,' he said at the time. 'It's going to turn,' he said calmly. As the broadcast cut back to a live feed, Morales recalled the confidence he had been able to project back then, despite fears from the community. 'I am here to tell you that I am not sure I can do that this year,' Morales told viewers. Related: A Republican's Response To A "Tax The Rich" Chant At His Town Hall Is Going Viral 'Because of the cuts, the gutting, the sledgehammer attack on science in general,' he went on, 'And I could talk about that for a long, long time, and how that is affecting the U.S. leadership in science over many years, and how we're losing that leadership and this is a multi-generational impact on science in this country.' He added, 'But, specifically, let's talk about the federal government cuts to the national weather service and to NOAA.' President Donald Trump and adviser Elon Musk's efforts to cut federal spending on what they consider 'waste, fraud, and abuse' led the so-called Department of Government Efficiency to eliminate hundreds of NOAA jobs this year, including many within the National Weather Service. Related: "I Am So Torn With What You Are Doing" — 11 Posts From MAGA Business Owners Who Are So Close To Getting It Project 2025 — the blueprint for a second Trump term that he has tried to denounce even as its plans become reality — outlines more extreme disruptions, including the total dismantling of NOAA. 'I think people are nervous and very scared to see what happens next,' a general forecaster at the National Weather Service told HuffPost back in March, after the job cuts, noting that hurricane season picks up in mid-summer. 'Everything people see on TV or hear from The Weather Channel, all that information comes from the National Weather Service,' the employee said. 'We're the ones behind the scenes that you may not see.' The administration did not boost confidence when it emerged that the new head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which handles post-hurricane damage, said Monday that he was not aware the country had a hurricane season. (The agency later said the comment was a joke.) Morales told viewers on Sunday that NWS offices in Central and South Florida were 19% to 39% understaffed, and that there has been a 17% drop in weather balloon launches, resulting in less data. JohnMoralesTV / Via 'And what we're starting to see is that the quality of the forecasts is becoming degraded,' Morales said, adding that hurricane-hunting planes may also be affected. 'With less reconnaissance missions, we may be flying blind, and we may not exactly know how strong a hurricane is before reaching the coastline,' he said. The meteorologist had more to say in a written piece published over the weekend. During an extreme weather event, skeleton staff at the nation's weather agencies might be at risk of making mistakes or overlooking data simply due to exhaustion. 'Am I worried? You bet I am!' he wrote. He provided an example of how such mistakes can have a devastating impact: Hurricane Otis, which made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, in 2023. The storm had drastically more intense wind speeds than predicted, Morales said, in part because there had not been 'timely reconnaissance data' from hurricane-hunting flights. Morales urged viewers to contact their congressional representatives to demand an end to the cuts. This article originally appeared on HuffPost. Also in In the News: People Can't Believe This "Disgusting" Donald Trump Jr. Post About Joe Biden's Cancer Diagnosis Is Real Also in In the News: Miss USA's 2024 "National Costume" Has Been Revealed, And It's Obviously An Interesting Choice Also in In the News: One Body Language Expert Spotted Something Very Telling When Donald Trump "Held His Own Hand" At His Recent Press Conference
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Something brewing in the Caribbean? Meteorologists say it's social media hype
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — You may have seen it on social media: eye-catching graphics of GFS model projections featuring a monster hurricane headed straight for the Gulf coast. Some accounts posted about this hypothetical storm weeks in advance, stoking anxiety in a hurricane-weary region of the country. What to expect during the 2025 hurricane season | Tracking the Tropics On Tuesday's edition of Tracking the Tropics, our team of meteorologists addressed those concerns and issued a warning to social media users who encounter these long-range projections online: Don't buy into the hype. 'Especially coming off of such a terrible season for Florida, where so many folks are going to be recovering for the next couple of years, there's just a heightened sense of anxiety. Storm anxiety is a real thing,' WKRG Chief Meteorologist Ed Bloodsworth said. 'Nerves are just heightened now. Folks are trying to rebuild their lives, get back to what will be their new normal. The last thing you want to do is scare them with nonsense. That's why you want to trust your local meteorologists.' Long-range models, like the GFS, often spin up phantom storms that don't come to fruition. These projections have low confidence more than a few days out. 'No, we're not going to see a Category 4 hurricane in 10 days in the Gulf. That's just not going to happen,' Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Rebecca Barry said. 'The confidence is so low. It's not even worth worrying about at this point.' The social media graphics and video thumbnails may look official, but our team of meteorologists says you should listen to the experts – not influencers who rely on clicks and follows. 'I get paid whether I post anything on Facebook or not. I get paid to do my job as a meteorologist,' Barry said. 'There are a lot of people on social media that are getting paid through social media, so if they don't post something that gets a lot of likes, shares and interactions, they don't get paid that day. That leads them to make different decisions than I would on social media. Some of them I would consider not the best decisions.' Barry's advice? Look at everything on social media with a critical eye. 'I just want people to think about who they follow on social media. Think before you share one of those posts,' Barry said. 'What are the motives? If the confidence is that low, it doesn't deserve any space in your brain or in your day.'Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
