29-05-2025
Florida isn't in the path, but could the Pacific's first system signal a busy hurricane season?
The first tropical system of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has formed — and while it won't impact Florida, forecasters say it's a sign of what's to come.
Tropical Depression One-E, which developed shortly after the Eastern Pacific season began on May 15, is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Alvin and make landfall in Mexico early next week, according to FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner.
Why you should care
According to Garner, this indicates that the general region, including the Caribbean, is finally warm enough to support a tropical system.
Some models suggest (as they often do this time of year) that the Central American Gyre (a semi-permanent low pressure that can form over Central America) may spin off some energy that could become a tropical system in the western Caribbean in mid-June.
What we know
The Climate Prediction Center has forecast the highlighted region below as one to watch in mid-June for tropical development.
It's too soon to say not only whether it will happen, but also what it could become or where it might lead – as models are all over the place, typical for early-season potential.
The Central American Gyre is a semi-permanent low pressure system that sits over Central America this time of year and can "spin off" little bits of energy that can grow into tropical systems. That's what the scenario here would be.
These are notoriously difficult to forecast because, 8 times out of 10, the models forecasting cyclogenesis are just – wrong. But, the table is set with warm water, low wind shear and favorable atmospheric conditions.
MORE | Tracking The Tropics: FOX 35 2025 Hurricane Season Preview
The season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2025. However, it is possible for a rare system to develop outside those timeframes. The "peak" of the Atlantic hurricane season is typically Sept. 10, though tropica activity increases between mid-August through mid-October.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the first named tropical storm of a season typically happens in mid-to-late June. The first hurricane typically happens in early-to-mid August, while the first major hurricane (Cat. 3 or stronger) happens in late August or early September.
RELATED | NOAA 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that the 2025 season will be more active than average. However, it is predicted to be less busy than in 2024.
NOAA's hurricane forecast:
13-19 named storms
6-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher)
14 named storms
9 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes
Here are the tropical cyclone names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Click here to view the pronunciation guide.
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dexter
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
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The Source
This story was written based on information shared by the FOX 35 Storm Team on May 29, 2025.
