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Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Don't blame privatisation for our water crisis
There are few things as perfectly emblematic of the United Kingdom's endemic governance crisis than the fact that an island nation with almost 20,000 miles of coastline and 800-to-1200mm average rainfall a year has broadly the same attitude to water as Dune's Fremen. Water companies are saying that they might need to 'restrict usage' as the combination of a changing climate and a rapidly-expanding population put mounting pressure on Britain's water resources. But whilst those things might be the proximate cause, the true root of the problem is our usual stubborn resistance to building things – or in this case, to digging some holes in the ground. Our newest reservoir, Carsington, was opened over three decades ago. Since then, our population has grown by over ten million people; in that same time, our reservoir capacity has not increased by so much as a drop. Who's to blame? The water companies are easy targets; the Daily Telegraph's own report refers to 'underinvestment in water reservoirs since privatisation' as the root of the problem. The real picture, however, is quite different. As Robert Colvile of the Centre for Policy Studies has shown, privatisation actually delivered consistently higher investment in water infrastructure than under the nationalised regime, to the extent that we actually invest more in 'repairing and upgrading' our water infrastructure than any European nation. Why is this? Because rather than having to rely on the Treasury deciding to make unglamorous, long-term investments, water companies are obliged to heavily reinvest revenue in their networks. If you want something properly funded, make sure it isn't competing with pensions and the NHS for cash every year. Privatisation has also boosted productivity by 64 per cent, according to a report by Frontier Economics, which translates to lower bills. Of course, politicians might have held them even lower had the state retained direct control – but that would have meant less revenue and less investment. No, the real culprit is planning. Abingdon Reservoir, which when complete will hold 150 million cubic metres of water, was first proposed by Thames Water almost two decades ago. Yet unlike in the golden age of British infrastructure, private companies cannot simply buy land and build things we need. Time and again, the reservoir has been rejected, with a broad swath of England subject to avoidable droughts year after year just to avoid upsetting Vale of White Horse District Council. Ah, but what about leaks? Surely, we wouldn't need all these reservoirs (read: perfectly pleasant lakes) if we could only fix the leaks? This line is peddled often by local campaigners trying to stop a reservoir, but it is nonsense. First, it is worth pointing out that the sector's performance on leaks has improved since privatisation; just since 2019, when Ofwat ditched the previous 'sustainable economic level of leakage' (SELL) regime, we have seen a double-digit reduction. The ideal amount of water lost to leaks would obviously be zero. But that is an impossible – or at least, ruinously expensive – target. Much of Britain's water infrastructure is Victorian; does anybody seriously think it's plausible to dig up and replace every pipe in the nation? We don't even know exactly where they all are. Moreover, the Victorians were not as exercised as we about leaks for a sensible reason: unlike oil, sewage, or other pollutants, mains water leaks don't damage anything. The water simply returns to the water table. Fixating on leaks is sensible if you're in a water-scarce environment; in the UK, which would have abundant water if it would only dig some holes to store it in, it is a sign of madness. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Western Telegraph
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Western Telegraph
Fact check: Report estimated 686,000 migrants would settle over 3.5 years
On several social media channels, the party wrote: '2 Million Immigrants. That's how many people could get British Citizenship next year.' Evaluation This figure appears to come from a report which measured the number of people who could get Indefinite Leave to Remain – not citizenship – spread over a 3.5-year period between January 2026 and June 2029 – not just next year. The figure was calculated by counting all those who arrived in the UK between January 2021 and June 2024 on a long-term visa which makes them eligible for Indefinite Leave to Remain. To this was added those who arrived in that period on an ineligible visa, but later switched to an eligible visa. That produced a figure of two million. But that is before taking into account people who leave the country, or who stay but never apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain. After taking into account such possibilities, the report's authors estimated that around 686,000 of those two million would receive Indefinite Leave to Remain over the 3.5-year period. The facts In a press release shared with the media on May 15 – the same day that the claims were posted on social media – the Conservative Party pointed towards an analysis from the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) think tank. That report deals not with citizenship, but with Indefinite Leave to Remain. ILR – also called settlement – gives a person the right to live, work and study in the UK for as long as they like. Most people are eligible for ILR if they have lived and worked in the UK for five years, depending on their visa type. Although many people are eligible after being in the UK for five years 'some wait considerably longer before applying,' the CPS report said. Once someone has ILR they get the right to apply for British citizenship after a further 12 months. What time period did the CPS report deal with? The CPS report did not say that two million people could get ILR in 2026. Instead it looked at the number of long-term visas issued between January 2021 and June 2024 – a total of around 3.8 million. Those of the 3.8 million who arrived in 2021, have stayed since then and have the right visas, will become eligible for ILR in 2026. Those who arrived in 2022 will be eligible in 2027 and so on. Where does the two million figure come from? The CPS estimated that around two million people from the 2021-2024 cohort could be eligible for ILR over the 3.5 years between January 2026 and July 2029. Assuming they are still in the country. The think tank got to this figure by excluding visas that would not make people eligible for ILR after five years. That left 1.7 million out of 3.8 million total long-term visas issued between January 2021 and June 2024. To this number it added those who had switched from a ineligible to an eligible visa after some time in the UK – for instance changing from a student to a work visa. By adding in these people who have switched visa the CPS estimated that a further 289,000 students who arrived in the UK between January 2021 and June 2024 could become eligible for ILR between January 2026 and June 2029. That takes the total to around two million. By CPS estimates, a little under 400,000 of those could become eligible in 2026. What proportion of the two million are likely to get ILR, according to the report? Not all the two million are likely to have stayed in the country for the full five years, and some of those who do stay for the full period will still not apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain. The CPS report estimated that out of the cohort of two million, around 686,000 people will obtain ILR between January 2026 and June 2029 and a further 115,000 by 2040. That is a total of 801,000 of those who came between January 2021 and June 2024. The CPS warned that some of its estimations were based on what proportion of people on certain visas had in the past eventually gained ILR. These proportions might be different in the cohort that arrived between January 2021 and June 2024. The CPS report's 'new paradigm' scenario where it assumes that the 2021-2024 cohort is much more likely to gain ILR sees around 1.2 million of them being granted Indefinite Leave to Remain. The video In a video accompanying the posts by the Conservatives on social media, the party's leader Kemi Badenoch says that the two million could claim citizenship 'from next year' – not in 2026 as the text in the posts claimed. Although it avoids the text's mistake, this still does not take into account that it will take these people a year from getting ILR before they are eligible for citizenship. That means that they will not be able to apply for citizenship until at least 2027. Links Post on LinkedIn (archived) Post on X (archived post and video) Post on Facebook (archived) CPS – Here To Stay? Estimating the Scale and Cost of Long-Term Migration (archived) – Check if you can get indefinite leave to remain (archived)
Glasgow Times
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Glasgow Times
Fact check: Report estimated 686,000 migrants would settle over 3.5 years
On several social media channels, the party wrote: '2 Million Immigrants. That's how many people could get British Citizenship next year.' Evaluation This figure appears to come from a report which measured the number of people who could get Indefinite Leave to Remain – not citizenship – spread over a 3.5-year period between January 2026 and June 2029 – not just next year. The figure was calculated by counting all those who arrived in the UK between January 2021 and June 2024 on a long-term visa which makes them eligible for Indefinite Leave to Remain. To this was added those who arrived in that period on an ineligible visa, but later switched to an eligible visa. That produced a figure of two million. But that is before taking into account people who leave the country, or who stay but never apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain. After taking into account such possibilities, the report's authors estimated that around 686,000 of those two million would receive Indefinite Leave to Remain over the 3.5-year period. The facts In a press release shared with the media on May 15 – the same day that the claims were posted on social media – the Conservative Party pointed towards an analysis from the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) think tank. That report deals not with citizenship, but with Indefinite Leave to Remain. ILR – also called settlement – gives a person the right to live, work and study in the UK for as long as they like. Most people are eligible for ILR if they have lived and worked in the UK for five years, depending on their visa type. Although many people are eligible after being in the UK for five years 'some wait considerably longer before applying,' the CPS report said. Once someone has ILR they get the right to apply for British citizenship after a further 12 months. What time period did the CPS report deal with? The CPS report did not say that two million people could get ILR in 2026. Instead it looked at the number of long-term visas issued between January 2021 and June 2024 – a total of around 3.8 million. Those of the 3.8 million who arrived in 2021, have stayed since then and have the right visas, will become eligible for ILR in 2026. Those who arrived in 2022 will be eligible in 2027 and so on. Where does the two million figure come from? The CPS estimated that around two million people from the 2021-2024 cohort could be eligible for ILR over the 3.5 years between January 2026 and July 2029. Assuming they are still in the country. The think tank got to this figure by excluding visas that would not make people eligible for ILR after five years. That left 1.7 million out of 3.8 million total long-term visas issued between January 2021 and June 2024. To this number it added those who had switched from a ineligible to an eligible visa after some time in the UK – for instance changing from a student to a work visa. By adding in these people who have switched visa the CPS estimated that a further 289,000 students who arrived in the UK between January 2021 and June 2024 could become eligible for ILR between January 2026 and June 2029. That takes the total to around two million. By CPS estimates, a little under 400,000 of those could become eligible in 2026. What proportion of the two million are likely to get ILR, according to the report? Not all the two million are likely to have stayed in the country for the full five years, and some of those who do stay for the full period will still not apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain. The CPS report estimated that out of the cohort of two million, around 686,000 people will obtain ILR between January 2026 and June 2029 and a further 115,000 by 2040. That is a total of 801,000 of those who came between January 2021 and June 2024. The CPS warned that some of its estimations were based on what proportion of people on certain visas had in the past eventually gained ILR. These proportions might be different in the cohort that arrived between January 2021 and June 2024. The CPS report's 'new paradigm' scenario where it assumes that the 2021-2024 cohort is much more likely to gain ILR sees around 1.2 million of them being granted Indefinite Leave to Remain. The video In a video accompanying the posts by the Conservatives on social media, the party's leader Kemi Badenoch says that the two million could claim citizenship 'from next year' – not in 2026 as the text in the posts claimed. Although it avoids the text's mistake, this still does not take into account that it will take these people a year from getting ILR before they are eligible for citizenship. That means that they will not be able to apply for citizenship until at least 2027. Links Post on LinkedIn (archived) Post on X (archived post and video) Post on Facebook (archived) CPS – Here To Stay? Estimating the Scale and Cost of Long-Term Migration (archived) – Check if you can get indefinite leave to remain (archived)
South Wales Argus
16-05-2025
- Politics
- South Wales Argus
Fact check: Report estimated 686,000 migrants would settle over 3.5 years
On several social media channels, the party wrote: '2 Million Immigrants. That's how many people could get British Citizenship next year.' Evaluation This figure appears to come from a report which measured the number of people who could get Indefinite Leave to Remain – not citizenship – spread over a 3.5-year period between January 2026 and June 2029 – not just next year. The figure was calculated by counting all those who arrived in the UK between January 2021 and June 2024 on a long-term visa which makes them eligible for Indefinite Leave to Remain. To this was added those who arrived in that period on an ineligible visa, but later switched to an eligible visa. That produced a figure of two million. But that is before taking into account people who leave the country, or who stay but never apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain. After taking into account such possibilities, the report's authors estimated that around 686,000 of those two million would receive Indefinite Leave to Remain over the 3.5-year period. The facts In a press release shared with the media on May 15 – the same day that the claims were posted on social media – the Conservative Party pointed towards an analysis from the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) think tank. That report deals not with citizenship, but with Indefinite Leave to Remain. ILR – also called settlement – gives a person the right to live, work and study in the UK for as long as they like. Most people are eligible for ILR if they have lived and worked in the UK for five years, depending on their visa type. Although many people are eligible after being in the UK for five years 'some wait considerably longer before applying,' the CPS report said. Once someone has ILR they get the right to apply for British citizenship after a further 12 months. What time period did the CPS report deal with? The CPS report did not say that two million people could get ILR in 2026. Instead it looked at the number of long-term visas issued between January 2021 and June 2024 – a total of around 3.8 million. Those of the 3.8 million who arrived in 2021, have stayed since then and have the right visas, will become eligible for ILR in 2026. Those who arrived in 2022 will be eligible in 2027 and so on. Where does the two million figure come from? The CPS estimated that around two million people from the 2021-2024 cohort could be eligible for ILR over the 3.5 years between January 2026 and July 2029. Assuming they are still in the country. The think tank got to this figure by excluding visas that would not make people eligible for ILR after five years. That left 1.7 million out of 3.8 million total long-term visas issued between January 2021 and June 2024. To this number it added those who had switched from a ineligible to an eligible visa after some time in the UK – for instance changing from a student to a work visa. By adding in these people who have switched visa the CPS estimated that a further 289,000 students who arrived in the UK between January 2021 and June 2024 could become eligible for ILR between January 2026 and June 2029. That takes the total to around two million. By CPS estimates, a little under 400,000 of those could become eligible in 2026. What proportion of the two million are likely to get ILR, according to the report? Not all the two million are likely to have stayed in the country for the full five years, and some of those who do stay for the full period will still not apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain. The CPS report estimated that out of the cohort of two million, around 686,000 people will obtain ILR between January 2026 and June 2029 and a further 115,000 by 2040. That is a total of 801,000 of those who came between January 2021 and June 2024. The CPS warned that some of its estimations were based on what proportion of people on certain visas had in the past eventually gained ILR. These proportions might be different in the cohort that arrived between January 2021 and June 2024. The CPS report's 'new paradigm' scenario where it assumes that the 2021-2024 cohort is much more likely to gain ILR sees around 1.2 million of them being granted Indefinite Leave to Remain. The video In a video accompanying the posts by the Conservatives on social media, the party's leader Kemi Badenoch says that the two million could claim citizenship 'from next year' – not in 2026 as the text in the posts claimed. Although it avoids the text's mistake, this still does not take into account that it will take these people a year from getting ILR before they are eligible for citizenship. That means that they will not be able to apply for citizenship until at least 2027. Links Post on LinkedIn (archived) Post on X (archived post and video) Post on Facebook (archived) CPS – Here To Stay? Estimating the Scale and Cost of Long-Term Migration (archived) – Check if you can get indefinite leave to remain (archived)
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Rayner triggers record year for Right to Buy
Right to Buy applications are projected to reach a two-decade high ahead of Labour's dramatic overhaul of the scheme, analysis suggests. The number of council tenants using Right to Buy will rocket by 162pc, with 18,500 homes changing hands in 2025-26, according to local authority predictions. But experts warned the surge would effectively undermine Angela Rayner's home building ambitions. She previously pledged to build 18,000 new social homes by 2029. Right to Buy, a flagship policy of Margaret Thatcher, allows tenants who have lived in a council property for three years or more to purchase it from their local authority at a discounted rate. The requirement will rise to 10 years under reforms led by Ms Rayner, the Housing Secretary, who benefited from the Right to Buy scheme herself. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, also cut the maximum discount available from £136,000 to £16,000 in most London boroughs and from £102,000 to £38,000 outside the capital. The decision was announced in her maiden Budget in October. Analysis by the i newspaper found councils in some areas had seen applications for the scheme double following the announcement. Overall, councils predicted 18,500 homes would be sold off in the next year. It amounts to the highest number of Right to Buy homes being sold in a single year than any other time in the last two decades. Dr Samuel Hughes, of the Centre for Policy Studies think tank, warned that the Government's reforms would make it 'unaffordable for any but the richest tenants to take advantage of the scheme'. He said: 'It is not surprising that many are racing to buy their homes now, before they are taken out of reach.' The Local Government Association, which represents councils in England and Wales, warned that the spike in Right to Buy applications 'will further exacerbate the homelessness challenges that councils are working hard to address'. The trade body maintained that the reforms were 'a step in the right direction' but urged the Government to ensure the scheme was fit for purpose. A spokesman said: 'The Government announcement that Right to Buy discounts were to be reduced appeared to lead to a significant increase in the number of Right to Buy applications made by social housing tenants ahead of the reductions taking effect. 'Whilst there will be positive longer-term benefits of the discount levels in stemming the continued loss of stock, the short-term impact is a spike in the sale of desperately needed social homes.' The Housing Department is spending £800m a year on its Affordable Homes Programme, and earmarked a further £2bn down payment in March's spending review. A government spokesman said: 'Too many social homes have been sold off before they can be replaced, which has directly contributed to the worst housing crisis in living memory. 'This government has delivered on its manifesto commitment to reviewing the increased discounts introduced in 2012, and our reforms will reverse this decline and deliver a fairer scheme by supporting councils to retain the receipts to rebuild their housing stock, while retaining a route for longstanding tenants to own their own homes.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
