Latest news with #CharlotteFirkins
Mint
29-04-2025
- Business
- Mint
Oil's Rarest ‘Smile' Fascinates Morgan Stanley as Glut Looms
(Bloomberg) -- The global oil market is in very rare territory right now, with futures pricing that points to near-term tightness while also flagging a 'meaningful surplus' further out, according to Morgan Stanley. 'The Brent forward curve has an unusual shape at the moment: downward sloping across the first nine contracts and upward sloping thereafter,' analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins said in a note. 'This is so unusual that, in fact, there is little historical precedent,' they said. Crude has been rocked this month by the fall-out from the US-led trade war, moves by OPEC to boost supply at a faster-than-expected clip, and growing expectations for a surplus. Those drivers have combined to spur a steep drop in headline prices in April — with Brent 12% lower — but simultaneously suggest a more complex underlying story about the timing of the glut. At present, Brent's nearer months are still pricier than those next in sequence, a pattern known as backwardation that's seen as bullish as it shows traders are willing to pay a premium for more prompt barrels. But the curve flips to the opposite structure, known as contango, further into 2026. 'The contango after the ninth contract signals a rapid weakening later this year, with slowing demand and robust supply growth driving a surplus,' the analysts said. 'In about 30 years' of historical data, there has not been another period when the forward curve showed a 'smile' the way it currently does.' Global benchmark Brent is expected to drop back into the low $60s-a-barrel later this year, according to Morgan Stanley, which retained its existing quarterly forecasts. Futures for the soon-to-expire front month of June were last at $65.03 a barrel, while those for July were about $1 lower. 'Trade tariffs will turn into a meaningful headwind for oil demand,' the analysts said. 'Our crude balance shows a deficit in the third quarter, but this turns into a meaningful surplus thereafter.' (Updates prices in penultimate paragraph.) More stories like this are available on First Published: 29 Apr 2025, 11:22 AM IST
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil's Rarest ‘Smile' Fascinates Morgan Stanley as Glut Looms
(Bloomberg) -- The global oil market is in very rare territory right now, with futures pricing that points to near-term tightness while also flagging a 'meaningful surplus' further out, according to Morgan Stanley. New York City Transit System Chips Away at Subway Fare Evasion NYC's Congestion Toll Raised $159 Million in the First Quarter Newsom Says California Is Now the World's Fourth-Biggest Economy The Last Thing US Transit Agencies Should Do Now At Bryn Mawr, a Monumental Plaza Traces the Steps of Black History 'The Brent forward curve has an unusual shape at the moment: downward sloping across the first nine contracts and upward sloping thereafter,' analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins said in a note. 'This is so unusual that, in fact, there is little historical precedent,' they said. Crude has been rocked this month by the fall-out from the US-led trade war, moves by OPEC+ to boost supply at a faster-than-expected clip, and growing expectations for a surplus. Those drivers have combined to spur a steep drop in headline prices in April — with Brent 12% lower — but simultaneously suggest a more complex underlying story about the timing of the glut. At present, Brent's nearer months are still pricier than those next in sequence, a pattern known as backwardation that's seen as bullish as it shows traders are willing to pay a premium for more prompt barrels. But the curve flips to the opposite structure, known as contango, further into 2026. 'The contango after the ninth contract signals a rapid weakening later this year, with slowing demand and robust supply growth driving a surplus,' the analysts said. 'In about 30 years' of historical data, there has not been another period when the forward curve showed a 'smile' the way it currently does.' Global benchmark Brent is expected to drop back into the low $60s-a-barrel later this year, according to Morgan Stanley, which retained its existing quarterly forecasts. Futures for the soon-to-expire front month of June were last at $65.03 a barrel, while those for July were about $1 lower. 'Trade tariffs will turn into a meaningful headwind for oil demand,' the analysts said. 'Our crude balance shows a deficit in the third quarter, but this turns into a meaningful surplus thereafter.' (Updates prices in penultimate paragraph.) As More Women Lift Weights, Gyms Might Never Be the Same Why US Men Think College Isn't Worth It Anymore Healthy Sodas Like Poppi, Olipop Are Drawing PepsiCo's and Coca-Cola's Attention Eight Charts Show Men Are Falling Behind, From Classrooms to Careers The Mastermind of the Yellowstone Universe Isn't Done Yet ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
29-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Oil Futures' Rare ‘Smile' Fascinates Morgan Stanley as Glut Seen
The global oil market is in very rare territory right now, with a pricing pattern that points to near-term tightness for crude while also flagging a 'meaningful surplus' further out, according to Morgan Stanley. 'The Brent forward curve has an unusual shape at the moment: downward sloping across the first nine contracts and upward sloping thereafter,' analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins said in a note. 'This is so unusual that, in fact, there is little historical precedent,' they said.
