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Arabian Business
3 hours ago
- Business
- Arabian Business
Global economic growth revised up to 3% in 2025, but trade tensions keep outlook fragile: IMF
The International Monetary Fund has revised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3 per cent, up from 2.8 per cent in April, citing stronger-than-expected trade activity, improved financial conditions, and easing tariff tensions between the United States and its trading partners. However, the Fund warned that this resilience remains 'tenuous' amid high uncertainty, elevated public debt, and geopolitical risks. In its World Economic Outlook Update released on Tuesday, the IMF projected global growth would rise slightly to 3.1 per cent in 2026, still below both the pre-pandemic average of 3.7 per cent and the 3.3 per cent seen in 2024. JUST RELEASED: Global growth is projected at 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026—somewhat higher than in April, but below earlier pre-tariff forecasts—and with risks still clouding the outlook. Read the full analysis and watch the briefing. — IMF (@IMFNews) July 29, 2025 'This resilience is welcome, but it is also tenuous,' said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's Chief Economist. 'The current trade environment remains precarious.' Trade front-loading buoys activity – for now Much of the global economy's first-half strength came from front-loading of exports to the US, as companies rushed to beat tariff hikes announced in April. The US partially rolled back these increases in May, bringing the effective tariff rate down to 17 per cent from 24 per cent. Yet, the Fund noted that tariffs remain historically high and could increase again after August 1, when the current pause is set to expire. In response to this front-loading, real GDP in Europe and Asia saw a boost. The euro area grew by 2.5 per cent in Q1, led by surging exports – particularly from Ireland. China's economy exceeded expectations with 6 per cent annualised growth, while the US saw a 0.5 per cent contraction due to subdued consumption and inventory distortions. Financial conditions ease, but risks remain The IMF noted that financial conditions have improved globally, with equity markets rebounding and the US dollar weakening by around 8 per cent since January. This has provided room for emerging markets to ease policy, even as long-term interest rates in advanced economies have edged higher amid growing fiscal concerns. Global inflation is expected to fall to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.6 per cent in 2026, broadly in line with April forecasts. However, in the US, inflation is ticking up again, driven by tariff-related cost increases and dollar depreciation. In contrast, the euro area and other large economies are seeing more subdued inflationary trends. 'Without comprehensive agreements, ongoing trade uncertainty could increasingly weigh on investment and activity,' Gourinchas said. Growth upgrades across the board The IMF upgraded growth forecasts for most regions. In the US, GDP is now expected to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2025 and 2 per cent in 2026, buoyed by the fiscal stimulus contained in the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The Fund estimates this package could raise US output by 0.5 per cent on average through 2030. China's growth was revised up by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8 per cent in 2025, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance and reduced tariffs. India is projected to grow by 6.4 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, with both figures slightly higher than earlier estimates. The euro area is expected to expand by 1 per cent in 2025, supported by front-loaded pharmaceutical exports from Ireland. However, excluding Ireland, the upgrade is more modest. Growth across the Middle East and Central Asia is forecast at 3.4 per cent in 2025, also a 0.4-point upgrade from April. Outlook clouded by policy uncertainty and debt Despite the modest upgrades, the IMF warned of significant downside risks. A renewed escalation in tariffs, expiration of temporary trade reprieves, or supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions – especially in the Middle East or Ukraine – could all derail momentum. Elevated public debt levels in economies such as the US, France, and Brazil also heighten financial market risks. 'Countries must reduce policy-induced uncertainty by promoting clear and transparent trade frameworks,' the Fund said. The IMF urged countries to restore fiscal space and protect central bank independence, cautioning that undermining monetary credibility would weaken efforts to manage inflation and stabilise economies. In the absence of durable trade agreements, the Fund expects world trade as a share of output to decline from 57 per cent in 2024 to 53 per cent by 2030. It called for multilateral efforts to lower tariffs and modernise trade rules, warning that persistent fragmentation could depress long-term productivity and investment.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Beef inflation: 3 reasons your burger is more expensive
Beef prices have risen more than 8% since the start of 2025. Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute chief agricultural economist Michael Swanson joins Market Catalysts to break down the rise in prices. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Mortgage rates inch lower this week
Mortgage rates ticked lower this week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, showed that the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.74% from last week's reading of 6.75%. The average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.78% a year ago. Housing Crisis Deepens As 47 Major Metro Areas Now Require Homebuyers To Spend More Than 30% Of Income "This week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage essentially remained flat at 6.74%," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's Chief Economist. "Overall, the backdrop for the housing market is positive as the economy continues to perform well with solid employment and income growth." The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.87% from last week's reading of 5.92%. One year ago, the rate on the 15-year fixed note averaged 6.07%. Read On The Fox Business AppOriginal article source: Mortgage rates inch lower this week Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
21-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
IMF says No. 2 official, Gopinath, leaving at end-August to return to Harvard
WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - Gita Gopinath, the No. 2 official at the International Monetary Fund, will leave her post at the end of August to return to Harvard University, the IMF said in a statement on Monday. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will name a successor to Gopinath in "due course," the IMF said. Gopinath joined the fund in 2019 as chief economist - the first woman to serve in that role - and was promoted to the role of first deputy managing director in January 2022.
Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
I'm a two-time tech founder. But restaurants are where I learned to lead
Sudden equipment failures. Supply chain surprises. Retaining staff as the goalposts move in real time. These aren't challenges I've faced as a tech founder—but I have faced them running restaurants. This new tax deduction in Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' lets people cash in on charitable donations up to $2,000. Here's what to know Housing market 'red flare': Moody's chief economist sees home price declines spreading Your dog could save us from America's most annoying invasive species Twenty years ago, I cofounded a conveyor belt sushi concept that grew over 10 years across 12 units and six states. And if I've learned one thing from over two decades of operating restaurants, it's that they require more discipline than any startup, with far less margin for error. On paper, hospitality and tech don't seem to overlap. Yet, many of my current practices as a leader were forged in a restaurant's back of house, where staying close to the numbers and the customer experience was key to survival. A master class in leading under pressure I didn't expect my time running a sushi chain to influence how I run my software company. But the leadership fundamentals that were critical in the restaurant business turned out to be the same ones needed in tech. 'Putting out fires' in tech usually means resolving a bug. At a restaurant, there could be a literal fire. Once, during a lunch rush at one of my restaurant chain's Washington, D.C., locations, our hood system failed. As teriyaki chicken smoke filled the HVAC system and forced a 14-story building to evacuate, we scrambled to fix it without stopping the line. Even when the crisis isn't so dramatic, leaders have to rally the team quickly. Staff and customers depend on you in person, so you think on your feet to handle any challenge at hand. As you juggle priorities on the floor, you're also protecting razor-thin margins behind the scenes. Unlike in tech, there's no bridge round to float you through a rough quarter. It's your job to monitor costs and adjust staffing or procurement to keep things stable. Anyone who's worked in a restaurant knows that it's a unique type of chaos. But the instincts the environment encourages can also drive resilient tech companies. 3 restaurant rules that tech leaders should borrow Restaurants don't have the luxury of recurring subscription payments—they have to fight every day for every dollar of revenue. That reality pushed me to be data-driven and relentlessly hands-on. While some lessons didn't feel obvious at the time, they guide how I lead in tech today. For example: 1. Be customer obsessedWell-run restaurants are maniacal about customer service. If you need proof, look to restaurateur Will Guidara's concept of 'unreasonable hospitality:' creating extraordinary experiences by exceeding customers' expectations. In this mindset, every touchpoint during a meal matters, from the first greeting to how the check arrives. Staff are expected to embody that service culture, no matter their role. Tech companies love to say they're customer-centric, but how often does that ethos extend across the org? If customer experience is siloed to success or support teams, you limit your ability to build with empathy. Tech leaders should take a page from restaurants and make it everyone's job to surprise and delight customers. It can be as simple as a program that lets team members nominate partners and clients to receive curated gifts—whether they're celebrating a win or going through a difficult time. Real customer obsession shows up when service is a shared culture, not a siloed department. 2. Your unit economics matter I could go on about how restaurants' profit margins force you to get the math right. But one habit it encourages is a laser focus on unit level costs. If any element of a takeout order, from packaging to ingredients, is out of balance, your margin disappears. Before you know it, your profit & loss statements have red at the bottom. Tech companies often overlook unit economics, but getting back to the basics of cost structure helps prevent unnecessary burn. Metrics like customer acquisition cost and lifetime value let you stay laser-focused on profitability and ensure you're building a business that can sustain itself. It's surprising to me how many tech entrepreneurs will claim success when they have early clients with 'strong usage metrics' but little or no revenue. If you can't charge for it, is it really adding value? Rigor at the unit level lets you scale responsibly and course-correct as the market shifts. 3. Break down silos and build a culture of teamwork Imagine if the kitchen and front-of-house staff stopped talking during a dinner rush. Orders would back up, wait times would spike, and customers would walk out before their food hit the table. Since coordination is make-or-break in a restaurant, leaders are wired to instill a culture of teamwork. Front-of-house and back-of-house employees don't point fingers at each other, they solve issues together. In tech, building that instinct to collaborate means giving teams visibility into each other's work. Engineers listen in on customer support calls and product managers shadow the QA team. When staff realizes how their work ladders toward the same goals, people start offering support without being asked. In fact, we are so focused on hospitality for our customers that we often see too many people running toward the same problem. But that's the better issue to have—it means teamwork is the norm, not an anomaly. Bringing restaurant discipline to the startup world When margins are tight, customer expectations are high, and every dollar of revenue takes real work, success depends on rallying employees with a culture of shared ownership. That's the kind of leadership restaurant operators practice every day—why should startups be any different? The stakes are distinct, but the playbook holds: get close to your customer, know your numbers inside and out, and build a team that solves problems shoulder to shoulder. The sooner tech leaders embrace this discipline, the better their odds of scaling something that lasts. This post originally appeared at to get the Fast Company newsletter: Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
