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The Hindu
2 days ago
- Climate
- The Hindu
How is India preparing against GLOF events?
The story so far: On July 8, Nepal experienced a catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) event which caused a flash flood along the Lende river flowing from Tibet to Nepal, and washed away a China-built friendship bridge. The bridge had serviced the 10-year old inland container port at Rasuwagadhi in Rasuwa (north of Kathmandu). The catastrophe is also reported to have made four Nepalese hydro-power plants along the Bhote Koshi river unusable, obliterating 8% of the country's power supply. With rising temperatures and subsequent glacial melt, the increased risk of GLOFs is threatening life and property in the higher Himalayas. Do trans-boundary watersheds diminish possibilities of early warning? While Chinese authorities have as yet refrained from confirming the cause, most Nepalese scientists and officials confirmed a GLOF event in Tibet, where a supra-glacial lake had burst, diminishing its surface area to 43 hectares from 63 hectares a day before. Nepalese officials were quoted lamenting in local media that neither did the Chinese authorities provide an early warning, nor was there an established system of doing so, despite a recent increase in supra-glacial lakes on the Tibetan side. Hours later, on the same day, another GLOF event occurred at a moraine-dammed lake in the northern part of the Mustang district in Nepal (north-west of Kathmandu). Two months before, two glacial lakes in the Humla district (far-north corner of Nepal) had witnessed significant GLOF events, while in 2024, a GLOF in the Solukhumbu district had destroyed the Thame village in Nepal, the base camp for Mount Everest climbers. The need for trans-boundary collaborations in setting up early warning protocols seems paramount, given that Nepal has lost many lives and much infrastructure in successive GLOF events. Similar events have impacted Nepal regularly, including the GLOF in Cirenma Co, a glacial lake, in Tibet in 1981, which released 20 mcm of water raising the Bhote Koshi river by 30 metres. Several decades later the same lake was reported to have rejuvenated and was rated high-risk. Other significant events include the Digi Tsho GLOF event in 1985, and the Tama Pokhari GLOF event in 1998. In response, Nepal has conducted risk mitigation works on the Imja Tsho and Tsho Rolpa lakes by drawing down water levels through artificial channels, a challenging task at heights above 5,000 m, and has further plans to target half a dozen more at-risk glacial lakes. What is the nature of GLOF risk for India? As per India's National Remote Sensing Centre, the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is home to 11 river basins and 28,000 glacial lakes. There are two prominent types of glacial lakes found in the IHR. The first are supraglacial lakes, formed in depressions on glaciers from meltwater, highly prone to melting in the summer months. The second are moraine-dammed lakes, formed by meltwater at the toe/snout of a glacier, dammed by loose debris or ice-cores, making them prone to sudden failure. Almost two-thirds of GLOF events are triggered by ice avalanches or landslides, and the remaining due to excessive meltwater pressure on weak moraine dams and earthquakes. With 2023 and 2024 being the hottest years on Earth, extreme temperatures in smaller geographies have been higher, thereby causing more glacial melt in certain pockets, making some glacial lakes highly risky. In addition to rising heat, is the problem of scale. 7,500 glacial lakes are situated in India, with most above 4,500 metres in height, hence approachable for surveys only during a short window in the summer season. There are almost no weather and water monitoring stations in these regions due to inaccessibility, lack of sustainability and cost, leaving this growing risk largely unmapped. The only credible means is measuring growth in surface area via remote sensing over periods of time, a measure which is post-facto and provides little by way of risk assessment or early warning of any sort. Additionally, vulnerability of the immediate geography is critical to determining the exact nature of risk. This includes damage to homesteads, livelihoods, biodiversity, bridges and hydro-power projects along rivers that relay GLOFs downstream. The South Lhonak GLOF in 2023 in Sikkim wiped out the $2 billion and 1250 MW generating Chungthang dam and also intensified the flash flood causing massive silting downstream. Since then, the Central Water Commission has found that the Teesta riverbed has risen several metres, significantly reducing its carrying capacity and increasing the chances of its banks overflowing. Besides the Sikkim GLOF, one of the most damaging events in recent times was the Chorabari GLOF in 2013, which turned into a cascading disaster accompanied by cloudbursts and landslides, known as the Kedarnath catastrophe — causing hundreds of casualties and billions in infrastructure damage. What can India do to mitigate GLOF risk? The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has markedly accelerated its efforts to manage these increasing risks. With respect to mitigation, it has initiated a proactive shift from mere post-disaster response to risk reduction through its Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction (CoDRR). This national coordination effort brought together related central scientific agencies, academic and research institutions, and States/UTs to study, monitor, warn, and mitigate GLOF risk in India. As a result, the central government finalised its first national programme of $20 million, prioritising 56 at-risk glacial lakes. The list has now been expanded to 195, categorised into four risk levels. Following the expected award of the 16th Finance Commission for the period FY2027 to FY2031, there are plans to scale up this programme, significantly. Objectives of this programme are five-fold — hazard assessment of each at-risk lake; installing Automated Weather and Water Stations (AWWS); establishing Early Warning Systems (EWS) downstream; mitigating risk by drawing down water levels or building flow through retention structures; and community engagement, an essential element of risk reduction. Under the programme, States where glacial lakes are resident were encouraged to take the lead in sending scientific expeditions to 40 of the highest at-risk lakes in the summer of 2024. One of the critical parameters in the exercise was to encourage Indian technology, systems and scientific expertise, one of which is the science of SAR interferometry — the art of analysing micro-changes in slope stability (upto a centimetre) using remote sensing satellite imagery as high as 10-metre resolution. The near-absence of usage of this scientific method to predict GLOFs and landslides is an identified gap that needs to be plugged through this programme. Another significant gap is the absence of well-resourced Indian foundations and innovative technology providers in the business of risk reduction in the Himalayan cryosphere. What is status of mitigation efforts? Several multi-institutional expeditions returned with success stories, across J&K, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh with a couple of light-hearted tales for their archives. One such expedition lost its way in bad weather, and another had to leave behind an expedition member in the village as security so that the rest of the expedition did not pollute the sacred lake by entering its holy waters. These episodes were evidence of the critical need for community engagement, to integrate the local community in expeditions and the need to convince residents of the credibility and sincerity of the exercise. The successful expeditions conducted bathymetry to assess the volume of water in the lakes; used Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) to understand the existence of ice-cores under moraine-dams, a key reason for dam breaks; and performed UAV and slope surveys of surrounding land/ice forms. Monitoring stations were installed at two lakes in Sikkim, which relay weather and water data every 10 minutes, with a daily dose of pictures of both ends of the lake and its shoreline. In subsequent summers, States will be installing more such systems, thereby overcoming an oft-repeated data-gap in the IHR cryosphere. In the absence of automated early warning mechanisms, Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) deployments in high reaches have been oriented towards the role of manual early warning. After the monsoon this year, States/UTs are gearing up for another round of expeditions. Safi Ahsan Rizvi is an IPS officer and adviser to the NDMA.


Qatar Tribune
6 days ago
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
China's shipbuilding lead endures, but market share dips amid US port-fee threat
Agencies China retained its leading position in the global shipbuilding market during the first half of the year, according to data from the industry association, despite a decline in market share caused by buyers' concerns over the threat of US port fees on Chinese-built vessels. It secured 68.3 per cent of new vessel orders in the global market in the first six months of the year, compared with 74.7 per cent in the same period last year, China's shipbuilding industry association said on Monday. The order volume fell by 18.2 per cent, year on year, to 44.33 million deadweight tonnes. Analysts have attributed the decline in market share to a decrease in orders for oil and LNG tankers, but still believe in China's competitive advantages.'Shipowners are cautious about choosing shipyards for their tanker orders, given the US' prominent role in oil and LNG export,' said Wu Jialu, chief analyst at Citic Futures. Considering that the US port fee targeting Chinese-built vessels is set to take effect on October 14, Wu said such concern could have a medium- to long-term impact on China's shipbuilding industry. The US, a major oil exporter, reached a record high in crude oil exports in 2024, exceeding an annual average of 4.1 million barrels per day, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. It also remained the world's largest LNG exporter in 2024, exporting an average of 11.9 billion cubic feet per day, the data typical half-year data releases that detail the top-three players' market shares and newbuilding orders by vessel category, the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry, which has maintained a low profile since the announcement of the US port fee targeting China-built or operated vessels, released only basic data on China's market performance. In terms of the three major shipbuilding indicators – ship completions, new orders, and outstanding orders – 'China continues to maintain its global leadership', the industry association said. China's ship completions accounted for 51.7 per cent of the global market in the first half of this year, while outstanding orders represented 64.9 per cent of the global market share as of June, its data association did not disclose the market shares of major competitors South Korea and Japan. But earlier this month, data from maritime consultancy Clarksons Research showed that South Korea's market share increased despite a slight decline in newbuilding volume, amid a global drop of more than 50 per cent in new orders, year on year, due to rising geopolitical tensions. Chinese shipyards will be able to maintain a stable market share even as US port fees begin to take effect, thanks to their competitive advantages in cost efficiency, a resilient supply chain, and capacity scale, You Daozhu, an analyst at Huaxi Securities, said in a recent shipping-industry report. The scale advantage is expected to be further strengthened as the China Securities Regulatory Commission just approved the merger of China State Shipbuilding Corporation and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation on Friday. The merger creates the world's largest shipbuilding conglomerate.


New Straits Times
6 days ago
- Business
- New Straits Times
EU-China talks test unity as tariffs and war frictions dominate
EXPECTATIONS are rock-bottom for a European Union-China summit today that will test European resolve and unity as the bloc faces intense trade pressure from Beijing and the United States, analysts say. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa plan to press Chinese leaders on rare earths and the war in Ukraine, both areas of tension, during the summit in Beijing. There is little hope for headway, at a time both sides face major challenges sustaining economic growth and Europe struggles to shore up support for Ukraine. Both sides may reach a modest joint statement on climate, a source familiar with the planning said, but no other tangible achievements are expected. In recent speeches, von der Leyen has revived hawkish China rhetoric, accusing China on July 8 of "enabling Russia's war economy" and flooding global markets with overcapacity. "We know that we don't see eye to eye with China on many issues, but we believe that it is essential to have this kind of very direct and open and constructive conversation," said one EU official. A spokesperson for the European Commission referred to a statement announcing the summit, which said leaders would discuss ways of ensuring "a more balanced, reciprocal and mutually beneficial trade relationship". In response to Reuters' questions, the Chinese Foreign Ministry referred to a spokesperson's statement on Monday. "Some people in Europe continue to ... exaggerate specific economic and trade issues and make groundless accusations against China on the Ukraine issue, causing unnecessary interference to China-EU relations," its spokesperson said. The 27-member European Union has also been negotiating hard with Washington after President Donald Trump threatened 30 per cent tariffs on most EU exports from Aug 1, with prospects for a broader trade deal fading. At the Beijing summit, China hopes to press the EU for a solution to its tariffs on China-built electric vehicles, for which Beijing claims price commitment negotiations are in the "final stages". Last week, China threatened to respond to EU sanctions on two Chinese banks and five firms over the Ukraine war. Its Commerce Ministry said on Monday the sanctions "seriously harmed trade, economic and financial ties". Other trade disputes are simmering in the background. China retaliated against EU restrictions on medical device procurement with its own curbs on July 6, and slapped duties on French cognac producers. China's exports to the EU grew in May while its US exports plunged 34.5 per cent in value terms the same month, sparking fears Chinese trade overcapacity is being diverted to the bloc due to US tariffs on Chinese goods. There is also a growing sense that EU firms are collateral damage for China's rare earth export controls that primarily targeted Washington but have disrupted European defence and automotive supply chains. In return for concessions on rare earths, China's asks could include reviving a long-stalled investment agreement after Beijing lifted sanctions on European Parliament members in May, and pushing back on US export curbs on Dutch firm ASML's chipmaking equipment. China has raised both in the weeks leading up to the summit, two sources familiar with the matter said. "The mood is extremely pessimistic in Europe regarding the summit," said Mathieu Duchatel, a director at the Institut Montaigne think tank in Paris. He said that Washington rejected previous EU proposals for coordination on China policy. "There is a sense that the gloves are completely off on the Chinese side. "They sense the transatlantic relationship has weakened and are trying to seize the opportunity." Diplomats and analysts also say that China is growing increasingly frustrated behind closed doors with European officials' repeated insistence on the war in Ukraine, which Beijing views as an obstacle in the relationship. There is little space for constructive dialogue on this, another EU official said, with Chinese counterparts denying evidence of Chinese firms' involvement in supplying dual-use goods to Russia.
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Prospects dim for Brussels, Beijing deal over tariffs on China-made EVs
China and the European Union are due to hold a leadership meeting in Beijing at the end of the month to celebrate the 50th anniversary of bilateral ties. Following multiple rounds of talks to ease the EU's extra tariffs of up to 35.3 percent on China-made electric vehicles in October, Beijing hoped Brussels would agree to its proposal, made ahead of the summit, to replace the duties with minimum price pledges by EV exporters. That seems to be wishful thinking given the continued deterioration in the bilateral relations. While Beijing sought to warm up relations before the upcoming leadership meeting, Brussels is not in a mood to act reciprocally. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visited Western Europe from June 30 to July 6. Wang's first stop was Brussels, where he held talks with Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and the commission's foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas. Wang also met top leaders and foreign ministers of Belgium, Germany and France. On China's exports of rare earth metals ― materials critical to making EVs and equipment in many other industries ― Wang told journalists in Berlin on July 3 that 'as long as European companies comply with export control regulations and complete the necessary procedures, their normal needs will be safeguarded,' according to the website of China's foreign ministry. At the press conference, Wang also noted that Chinese authorities have set up a 'fast track' process to expedite rare-earth exports to European enterprises. On July 4, while announcing 'antidumping' tariffs of up to 34.9 percent for five years on European brandy, which is mainly produced in France, China's commerce ministry also granted a tariff exemption for brandy from the EU under the condition that the continent's producers honor minimum-price commitments. Later the same day, Wang told French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot in Paris that a resolution of the brandy issue via 'friendly consultations' shows China and Europe are 'entirely capable of properly handling frictions,' according to a release from China's foreign ministry. Wang also expressed hope that France could 'play a constructive role in encouraging the EU to uphold the same spirit in properly managing differences.' Will the French government now help to persuade Brussels to address tariffs on China-built EVs in the same way as Beijing has done with brandy from France? Even if France is willing to help, the chances that the EU would soften its stance on China-made EVs are slim. After meeting the Chinese foreign minister last week, von der Leyen and Kallas haven't toned down their criticism of China over several other issues. Additional sticking points include China's support for Russia's war with Ukraine — an allegation Beijing vehemently denies, as well as limiting market access for European businesses and shipping surplus goods to the EU, according to Bloomberg and Reuters. The EU, alleging a lack of strong commitments from Beijing to reduce greenhouse emissions, has also delayed endorsement of a joint climate pact with China, which was originally expected to be signed at the summit, The Financial Times reported July 7, citing EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. All this seems to have angered the Chinese side. On July 6, China's finance ministry announced it will limit government procurement of medical devices from the EU in retaliation for curbs Brussels enacted on similar products made in China on June 20. With so much bad blood between them, unless Beijing makes major concessions, such as removing all restrictions on rare-earth exports to Europe, it is nearly impossible for Brussels to agree to a new deal on EVs from China. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data


New Straits Times
10-07-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Long-term charters shield MISC from trade headwinds
KUALA LUMPUR: MISC Bhd expects trade headwinds to have only a minimal effect on its operations, as the majority of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) and petroleum fleets are secured under long-term charter contracts. According to RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB IB), the group's exposure to China-built vessels operating in the US Gulf is limited, and it has the flexibility to redeploy its fleet if necessary. "In managing geopolitical risks, the group has rerouted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, supported by real-time monitoring and close coordination with authorities. "While oil majors pivot back to traditional oil and gas, highlighting energy transition risks, the maritime sector continues to move forward under clear regulatory direction and mounting pressure to decarbonise," it said. In line with this, MISC has set up a dedicated task force to lead its decarbonisation efforts. RHB IB said MISC is actively strengthening its resilience and maintaining steady long-term cash flows across its key business segments. In the LNG shipping division, the group is upgrading its fleet with 19 new LNG carriers expected to be delivered by 2027. For the petroleum segment, MISC is modernising its fleet with dual-fuel tankers, having already secured charters for three ammonia-powered Aframax vessels set for delivery between 2027 and 2028, along with two LNG dual-fuel Aframaxes. In the offshore segment, the company is preparing to bid for new projects to capitalise on the current floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) supercycle, following the successful deployment of the Mero 3 unit. RHB IB also noted that MISC is exploring floating CO₂ injection solutions by leveraging the combined capabilities of its Offshore and New Energy (NED) divisions. As for its heavy engineering segment, the focus is on improving the quality of its order book and positioning its yard as a preferred partner for LNG carrier drydocking, repairs, and conversion works. Following a recent stakeholder engagement session, RHB IB said it remains upbeat about MISC's medium-term prospects, supported by its long-term charters and ongoing fleet upgrades despite the challenging environment. "Growth prospects are further supported by its positioning in the FPSO supercycle and growing momentum in green energy," it added.