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Time of India
31-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
US, Pak, China: The post-Sindoor world calls for a strategic reset
India's pushback to Pakistan's provocation in Pahalgam is an inflection point in regional geopolitics. There are big-picture lessons that must be absorbed to reorient Indian statecraft in a rapidly changing international and regional setting. The Sino-Pakistan axis has acquired an operational reality that is difficult to ignore and not straightforward to counter. Most strategists recognise that India's conventional superiority over Pakistan means little in the context of controlled limited conflicts that are likely to occur under the nuclear shadow. For all practical purposes, Pakistan is a near-peer military competitor. This is now further complicated by the presence of China's military industrial complex that can selectively tilt the scales in Pakistan's favour. China's PLA, whose primary mission is to deny access to and potentially defeat the US in the Taiwan Straits, has spent the past decade modernising its forces for such a scenario. The focus has been on developing capabilities such as modern sensors, electronic intelligence satellites, electronic warfare, long range air-to-air missiles, and advanced tactical-combat aircraft. It is apparent that some of these capabilities have made their way to the Pakistan military. Build on thaw: While the Sino-Pak axis is worrying, there is room to wean China away from Pakistan China can buttress Pakistan's conventional power to keep pace and perhaps even surpass India in select areas in the future. What works to India's advantage is that unlike US and NATO hardware that come with well-known caveats and geopolitical risks, our 'no-strings attached' partnership with Russia's advanced military -industrial complex allows the Indian military to integrate its growing indigenous capacities with select high-technology systems to maintain a qualitative edge. This being said, it is futile for India to engage in an all-out arms race (in essence, with China) or frantically build up conventional power. Strategic nuclear and conventional deterrence for major contingencies is robust and expected to strengthen over time. Remember, the main challenge is countering asymmetric warfare with the new doctrine of assured and calibrated cost imposition on Pakistan. The means can vary over time — from the conventional to the sub-conventional to non-traditional areas like water security. There are obvious limits to China's ability to protect Pakistan from the blowback of its asymmetric warfare. There are larger questions that Indian policymakers can no longer brush under the carpet. Why did the Sino-Pak axis acquire such momentum in recent years? And, should India do anything to reshape Beijing's calculations in the subcontinent? First, there is no doubt that India's declared China-centric alignment with the US over the past decade was the lightning rod for Beijing to deepen ties with Rawalpindi much beyond its traditional partnership model. But the US had no desire to open a geopolitical front with China in the subcontinent and did little to shore up India's regional position. The US was primarily interested in drawing India into an extra-regional maritime role to support its security goals in the Western Pacific. Quite extraordinarily then, the Chinese counter to India's bold balance of power move with the US not only went unchallenged in the subcontinent, it actually led to a tacit convergence between Washington and Beijing on upholding Pakistan's basic position in the regional order and the primacy of the Pakistan army at home. Nothing demonstrated this stark geopolitical reality to Delhi more than the recent crisis. Can Indian statecraft arrest the deterioration in the regional chessboard that is partly the result of miscalculation from its own geostrategies? Beijing's primary geopolitical threats emanate from its eastern seaboard and will only grow over time. There is room to wean China away from Pakistan and bring Beijing's regional policy back towards a balance that is acceptable to Delhi. For this to occur, India must build on the 2024 thaw reached between the two leaderships and explore the possibility of a framework to normalise India-China relations. As for the US, the normal will be different with or without Trump. There is no scope for a balance-of-power play with the US in the subcontinent. It was self-deception to imagine India could simply ride American power to emerge as South Asia's leading power. That outcome will have to be earned the way all regional and great powers acquired their material and normative strength — through broadening the domestic industrial, technological and human capital base of the Indian economy while intelligently leveraging the international environment. There is no other way in our multipolar age. India doesn't have to get bogged down in a low-level game with the Pakistan army. Nor should India swing into a proxy crusader against a rising China whose sights are set on countering the US in the Western Pacific. This crisis is an opportunity to craft a sophisticated grand strategy for a multipolar world. Only geopolitical incompetence can disrupt the India story from its long-range goals. Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email Disclaimer Views expressed above are the author's own.
Economic Times
29-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Trump tariffs blocked: What the US court ruling means for Indian market and global trade
Legal brake on tariffs could ease U.S.-India trade talks Indian exporters may benefit as supply chains de-risk from China Live Events Markets cheer legal clarity, Indian equities open higher Court ruling triggers repricing in safe-haven assets Tariff agility curbed for future administrations Legal uncertainty could shift the U.S.-China trade equation (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel In a landmark verdict, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs and halted most of Trump's tariffs from taking decision not only blocks the so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs in their tracks, but also sets the stage for broader legal challenges to executive-led trade actions. Motilal Oswal Financial Services outlines why this judgment could reshape global trade dynamics, and what it could mean for India.'A pullback in U.S. tariff aggression creates space for India to strengthen trade positioning,' said Motilal Oswal. With Trump's 26% reciprocal tariff threat now under legal cloud, India may gain leverage in its ongoing trade negotiations with Washington, especially as it offers deep tariff cuts on non-sensitive Oswal noted that exporters in sectors like pharma and textiles could benefit if the ruling weakens the U.S.'s reliance on China-centric trade strategies. 'Exporters in pharma, textiles, may benefit if global supply chains de-risk from China,' the brokerage said, pointing to India as a natural beneficiary of any diversification decision triggered a positive sentiment wave in equities. 'Markets may not react sharply as the original tariffs' economic impact was limited,' Motilal Oswal said, 'but this sets a big precedent for future administrations.' On Thursday, the Nifty 50 rose 0.29% while the Sensex climbed 0.34%, reflecting early risk-on mood hit safe-haven assets. Gold fell 0.7% to its lowest in over a week, while the U.S. dollar strengthened. According to Motilal Oswal, 'Emergency powers are now under tighter judicial scrutiny,' leading investors to recalibrate expectations on trade-linked uncertainty and favour risk Oswal highlighted that the U.S. court's verdict 'sets a precedent that may reduce future tariff agility — even in genuine crises.' With the court rejecting the use of a decades-old law to justify economic penalties, executive freedom over trade has now come under structural limits, adding new layers to trade judgment introduces a new legal dimension to U.S.-China trade tensions. 'U.S.-China trade tensions could enter a new phase of legal uncertainty,' Motilal Oswal observed, implying that geopolitical trade decisions may face more institutional checks, opening indirect windows of opportunity for competitors like India.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Time of India
29-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Trump tariffs blocked: What the US court ruling means for Indian market and global trade
In a landmark verdict, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs and halted most of Trump's tariffs from taking effect. The decision not only blocks the so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs in their tracks, but also sets the stage for broader legal challenges to executive-led trade actions. Motilal Oswal Financial Services outlines why this judgment could reshape global trade dynamics, and what it could mean for India. Legal brake on tariffs could ease U.S.-India trade talks 'A pullback in U.S. tariff aggression creates space for India to strengthen trade positioning,' said Motilal Oswal. With Trump's 26% reciprocal tariff threat now under legal cloud, India may gain leverage in its ongoing trade negotiations with Washington, especially as it offers deep tariff cuts on non-sensitive goods. Indian exporters may benefit as supply chains de-risk from China Motilal Oswal noted that exporters in sectors like pharma and textiles could benefit if the ruling weakens the U.S.'s reliance on China-centric trade strategies. 'Exporters in pharma, textiles, may benefit if global supply chains de-risk from China,' the brokerage said, pointing to India as a natural beneficiary of any diversification shift. Markets cheer legal clarity, Indian equities open higher The decision triggered a positive sentiment wave in equities. 'Markets may not react sharply as the original tariffs' economic impact was limited,' Motilal Oswal said, 'but this sets a big precedent for future administrations.' On Thursday, the Nifty 50 rose 0.29% while the Sensex climbed 0.34%, reflecting early optimism. Court ruling triggers repricing in safe-haven assets The risk-on mood hit safe-haven assets. Gold fell 0.7% to its lowest in over a week, while the U.S. dollar strengthened. According to Motilal Oswal, 'Emergency powers are now under tighter judicial scrutiny,' leading investors to recalibrate expectations on trade-linked uncertainty and favour risk assets. Tariff agility curbed for future administrations Motilal Oswal highlighted that the U.S. court's verdict 'sets a precedent that may reduce future tariff agility — even in genuine crises.' With the court rejecting the use of a decades-old law to justify economic penalties, executive freedom over trade has now come under structural limits, adding new layers to trade policymaking. Legal uncertainty could shift the U.S.-China trade equation The judgment introduces a new legal dimension to U.S.-China trade tensions. 'U.S.-China trade tensions could enter a new phase of legal uncertainty,' Motilal Oswal observed, implying that geopolitical trade decisions may face more institutional checks, opening indirect windows of opportunity for competitors like India. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Mint
19-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
What is India's advantage in the global trade reset amid US's tariff flip-flops?
The contours of global trade are constantly shifting, and India finds itself navigating an increasingly complex landscape. The US-China relationship–oscillating between tariff reductions and technology restrictions–has left many countries uncertain about their export prospects. Recent developments include the Trump administration's first free trade agreement with the UK, which tied lower tariffs to excluding China from some supply chains, followed shortly by a temporary US-China tariff cut and then a sweeping ban on Huawei AI chip use. Read this | Mint Exclusive: India-US trade deal before 8 July, talks next week This erratic approach puts the 'China plus one" strategy into question and raises concerns about whether other emerging economies could secure similar tariff reprieves, potentially eroding India's tariff-driven export gains. So, where does that leave India? Can it turn these tariff shifts into strategic advantages in the evolving trade reset? India's strategic positioning A crucial consideration is that China has established itself as a global leader in industries integral to both economic and national security, such as steel, aluminium, cement, shipbuilding, and automotive manufacturing. Aware of the strategic risk of relying on China, especially during conflicts or pandemics, the US is advocating for diversified global value chains. India, while not matching China's manufacturing prowess, holds a unique advantage: its capacity for scaling up without being perceived as a threat. As one of the world's top three producers of steel, aluminium, and cement, India is well-placed to become part of the new, less China-centric supply chains. Push and pull factors To assess India's trade prospects, it is essential to distinguish between 'push" and 'pull" factors. Push factors stem from external global shifts, while pull factors are rooted in India's own economic structure. Initially, the high tariffs on China presented a positive push for Indian exports. The subsequent easing of these tariffs weakens but does not entirely negate this advantage. Moreover, two geopolitical factors continue to work in India's favour. Read this | RBI prepares for Trump tariff fallout with liquidity moves First, India's relatively modest manufacturing share, rising from 1.5% in 2004 to 2.9% in 2023, contrasts sharply with China's leap from 8.6% to 28.8% over the same period. Ironically, this perceived weakness might turn into an asset, as India is not seen as a direct competitor to China. Second, India has never been a hub for re-routing Chinese exports to the US, unlike countries such as Vietnam or Mexico. And given India's relationship with China, it is unlikely to take on this role in the future. This positions India as a more reliable partner for trade realignment. On the pull side, India has two advantages, both originating from its unique economic structure. The first is its large domestic market: household consumption is the mainstay of economic growth, and contributes to two-thirds of its gross domestic product. In contrast, China's strong investment and export focus has led to its disproportionately low private consumption rate for its level of income. The fact that China accounts for 30% of global manufacturing but only 11% of consumption is one of the global imbalances that the current US administration wants to correct. In addition, robust domestic consumption is a source of comfort to foreign companies setting up export-oriented facilities. For example, Maruti Suzuki, which was set up with Japanese collaboration in the 1980s, is the market leader in passenger cars and also a leading car exporter (it has been exporting made-in-India cars since 1986). In a flip scenario, Apple Inc., which has plans to assemble all US-bound iPhones in India, could eventually supply India's rapidly growing smartphone market also. The idea is not far-fetched: by 2030, India is expected to have 773 million consumers, next only to China and far higher than comparable emerging economies. The second pull factor is the rising importance of India in future industries and technologies. Of the 44 future technologies analysed by the 2023 Critical Technology Tracker, the US and China lead the world in high-impact research capability by a wide margin, but India and the UK, together with Australia and Japan, frequently appear among the countries next in line. These countries could, potentially, band together to create an alternate ecosystem to complement China's striking progress in advanced technologies. Read this | Asian factories bear scars of Trump's tariff blast The path forward World trade is projected to decline in 2025 on the back of rising trade tensions. A tariff advantage would have been incredibly useful as Indian exporters compete for a share of the shrinking trade pie. But given that more countries are turning protectionist, relying solely on tariffs is not sustainable. Also read | Donald Trump's chaos goes beyond tariffs. Here's how some are trying to cope Instead, India has to stack up its strengths: young labour force, strong growth, rapid digitisation and core industrial capacity; and boost these macro positives with business-friendly policies to pull in trade.
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
CHRW Q1 Earnings Call: Margin Expansion and Productivity Offset Lower Revenue in Tough Freight Market
Freight transportation intermediary C.H. Robinson (NASDAQ:CHRW) missed Wall Street's revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales falling 8.3% year on year to $4.05 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.17 per share was 11.4% above analysts' consensus estimates. Is now the time to buy CHRW? Find out in our full research report (it's free). Revenue: $4.05 billion vs analyst estimates of $4.26 billion (8.3% year-on-year decline, 4.9% miss) Adjusted EPS: $1.17 vs analyst estimates of $1.05 (11.4% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $211.1 million vs analyst estimates of $198.9 million (5.2% margin, 6.1% beat) Operating Margin: 4.4%, up from 2.9% in the same quarter last year Free Cash Flow was $90.45 million, up from -$55.8 million in the same quarter last year Market Capitalization: $11.43 billion C.H. Robinson's first quarter results were shaped by a combination of disciplined execution and innovation in a challenging freight environment. Leadership cited market share gains in both truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) segments, alongside improvements in gross and operating margins, as evidence that their ongoing transformation efforts are yielding results. CEO Dave Bozeman attributed this progress to self-help initiatives and a new operating model, noting, "we are not waiting for a market recovery to improve our financial results." Looking ahead, management highlighted continued investment in automation and generative artificial intelligence (AI) as central to their strategy for margin expansion and operating leverage. Bozeman was candid about the uncertainty posed by new tariffs and shifting global trade patterns, acknowledging that some customers had paused or reduced orders as they assess the impact. Still, he expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt, stating, "the continued disciplined execution of our strategy... will make us stronger," while emphasizing the scalability and flexibility of the business model. C.H. Robinson's management emphasized that market share gains and improved margins in Q1 were achieved despite a prolonged freight recession and ongoing trade policy disruptions. The team highlighted a focus on operational discipline, digital innovation, and supply chain diversification as key to performance. Market Share in Core Segments: Truckload and LTL volumes outperformed broader market indices, with management attributing these gains to a disciplined approach to pricing and capacity procurement, as well as targeted investments in sales and digital brokerage. AI-Driven Productivity Gains: The rapid scaling of proprietary generative AI tools across the shipping lifecycle reduced manual workload, increased shipment per person per day, and enabled real-time dynamic pricing. Management reported these advances contributed to over 30% productivity improvement in two years. Supply Chain Diversification: The company actively supported customers in diversifying away from China-centric supply chains, reducing exposure to volatile trade lanes and helping offset the impact of new tariffs and global trade disruptions. Cost Optimization and Headcount Management: Operating expenses declined due to ongoing productivity initiatives and a leaner workforce, partially attributed to the divestiture of the European Surface Transportation business. Management stressed the use of attrition and dynamic workforce planning to maintain flexibility. Integration of Managed Solutions: The integration of transportation management and managed services under a single strategy, referred to as the "One Robinson" approach, was cited as a lever for moving up the value stack and capturing more wallet share from existing customers. Management expects the external freight environment to remain volatile, with geopolitical developments, tariffs, and evolving supply chain strategies shaping demand. The company's outlook is guided by its focus on automation, cost discipline, and helping clients navigate uncertainty. Automation and AI Expansion: Management believes ongoing investment in generative AI and automation will further decouple headcount from volume, supporting margin expansion and business scalability regardless of market cycles. Customer Supply Chain Shifts: The company expects continued resilience from supporting customers' efforts to diversify sourcing and adapt to changing tariff regimes, potentially lifting demand for customs and managed supply chain solutions. Cost Flexibility and Lean Operations: Ongoing productivity initiatives and dynamic workforce planning are expected to help maintain or improve operating margins, even if freight demand remains subdued or volatile. Alex Johnson (Evercore ISI): Asked about weather-related disruptions and management's ability to handle them; executives described improved, proactive response due to new operating tools and said weather was a "non-event" for results. Jeff Kauffman (Vertical Research Partners): Probed on scenario planning in international forwarding given shifting tariffs; management outlined ongoing diversification away from China and increased customs activity. Brian Ossenbeck (JPMorgan): Inquired about April trends and truckload capacity exit; leadership noted typical seasonal patterns but said no inflection in market demand or capacity yet. Ken Hoexter (Bank of America): Asked about AGP (adjusted gross profit) trends and capital expenditure reduction; CFO clarified both were driven by tougher comps and reprioritization of discretionary spend, with strategic initiatives fully funded. Tom Wadewitz (UBS): Sought clarity on headcount declines and the company's approach to combining managed services and brokerage; management explained the impact of recent divestitures and detailed the new "One Robinson" strategy for integrated service offerings. In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the pace of market share gains in core truckload and LTL segments, (2) the tangible margin benefits from continued automation and generative AI deployment, and (3) the company's ability to help customers navigate supply chain shifts amid ongoing tariff and trade disruptions. Additionally, the impact of the integrated managed solutions strategy on customer retention and wallet share will be a key signpost for future growth. C.H. Robinson Worldwide currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19.9×. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our free research report. Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election sent major indices to all-time highs, but stocks have retraced as investors debate the health of the economy and the potential impact of tariffs. While this leaves much uncertainty around 2025, a few companies are poised for long-term gains regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate, like our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 176% over the last five years. Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.
