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Memri
2 days ago
- Politics
- Memri
S. Korea's Crucial June 3 Election And Its Implications For The United States: S. Korea May Become China's Satellite State
In 2009, South Korean novelist Bok Geo-il wrote one of the earliest perceptive books on the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) subversive influence within the Republic of Korea (ROK). This book was expanded and re-published in an English edition, with the title Under The Shadow Of China – Possible Finlandization Of The Korean Peninsula, in early 2017. In May of that year, due to the results of a snap election dictated by the impeachment of then conservative President Park Geun-hye, the leftist Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidate Moon Jae-in, an appeaser of N. Korea and China, was elected president. As Bok pointed out, China's influence on ROK policies had been going on for years, since the 1992 normalization of diplomatic ties between the two countries.[1] However, it was with the advent of the China-friendly administration of Moon Jae-in that China's influence on the ROK reached unprecedented levels. What transpired during the left-leaning administration of President Moon is important in understanding the pro-China policy preferences of the current DPK presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung, who hopes to win the June 3 snap election in Korea, which is the result of the impeachment and removal from office of former pro-U.S. conservative President Yoon Seok-yeol.[2] Under the Shadow of China – Possible Finlandization of the Korean Peninsula, by Bok Geo-il South China Morning Post: "China Wins Its War Against South Korea's U.S. THAAD Missile Shield — Without Firing A Shot" With the Moon administration came a veritable flood of China-friendly, and in some cases downright pro-China policies and proposals. Perhaps the most important of these various policies centered about the dispute between China and the ROK over the deployment in the ROK of a battery of the U.S. THAAD (terminal high-altitude area defense) anti-missile system, meant to deter and defend against the ever-increasing missile threat posed by N. Korea. The decision to deploy THAAD was announced in 2016 by the previous administration of conservative President Park and the system was in place by early May of 2017, days prior to Moon's election. It had been strongly opposed by Park's political opponents Moon Jae-in, Lee Jae-myung, and others of the leftist DPK, who issued statements and participated in rallies opposing THAAD. As part of the pressure campaign against the deployment, which China perceived would force concessions from the Moon administration, certain Korean businesses in China were subjected to shut down, Korean cultural content in China was drastically restricted, Chinese group tours to the ROK nearly disappeared, and other de jure and de facto forms of retaliation were brought to bear. In late 2017, the Moon administration announced its infamous "Three No's" policy that was well-received in China. Moon declared that there would be no deployment of additional THAAD batteries in the ROK, that the ROK would not participate in any regional anti-missile defense system, and that the ROK would not enter into any trilateral defense alliance with both the U.S. and Japan. While Moon's fans in the ROK and the U.S. attempted to portray this decision as some kind of useful compromise, with China, many conservative South Korean observers widely regarded the "Three No's" policy as a national humiliation. After Moon's concessions to China, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post featured the November 2017 headline "China Wins Its War Against South Korea's U.S. THAAD Missile Shield — Without Firing A shot." (Source: South China Morning Post, November 18, 2017) Moon Jae-in: China Is A "High Mountain Peak" The appeasement regarding THAAD was not the only humiliation which Moon, who served as president from May 2017 to May 2022, caused the ROK to suffer with regard to China. A slew of further national indignities occurred, when Moon visited China for a summit with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping in December 2017. He likened China to a "high mountain peak," in contradistinction to the ROK, which he defined as a "small nation."[3] Moon added that he deeply agreed with "many parts of governing philosophy put forward by president Xi Jinping in the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China." He then stated that that "the Chinese Dream" was not only the dream of China but also the dream of Asia and even the world.[4] Moon further said that China and the ROK were "destined as one community," and even went so far as to praise what he absurdly termed the "democratic leadership" of Xi.[5] Overlooking the several Chinese invasions of Korea throughout history, including China's attack on the ROK (to save North Korea) in 1950, Moon said "the Chinese and Koreans are comrades who suffered and overcame the hardships of modern history together."[6] Yet, in spite of several invitations by Moon, Xi never deigned to visit the ROK during Moon's presidency. Nevertheless, when COVID emerged and spread to the ROK, Moon bent over backwards, even at the expense of his own nation's citizens, to cozy up to China. Moon refused the pleas of the Korean Medical Association to suspend flights from China to the ROK and in the face of a serious mask shortage in the ROK allowed masks to be exported to China.[7] "China's difficulties are our difficulties," Moon told Xi in February 2020.[8] As Korean academic Lee Seong-hyon put it, "The South Korean public went up in arms, with some claiming he seemed more like the president of China than South Korea."[9] In June of 2020, Moon's Ambassador to the U.S. Lee Soo-hyuck said: "I feel pride that we are now a country that can choose [between the U.S. and China], not be forced to choose."[10] President Moon Jae-in greets Chinese President Xi Jinping prior to the China-South Korean summit in Berlin that took place in July, 2017. (Source: Yonhap News) The Straits Times: "Pro-China Remarks Haunt S. Korea's Presidential Hopeful Lee Jae-myung" This brings us to the ROK's troubled present, and the current DPK presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung. Based on the statements of Lee Jae-myung, who stands a good chance of winning the June 3 presidential election, it would seem that he is following in the footsteps of Moon. Lee played a key role in the downfall of pro-U.S. conservative President Yoon Seok-yeol. It is worth noting that, in the first impeachment motion against President Yoon, the DPK's leadership, which includes Lee, revealed its worldview by including as one of the grounds for impeachment the accusation that Yoon was "antagonizing" North Korea, China, and Russia. The DPK apparently felt that opposition to China's policies was somehow a crime. The party only removed this language from its second motion after it was criticized within the ROK and by Korea experts and commentators in the U.S.[11] Furthermore, commenting on Lee's legislative election campaign speech of March 22, 2024, Korean media outlet Chosun Ilbo stated: "Lee Jae-myung, the leader of South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party, asked, 'Why keep pestering China?' With a gesture of clasping his hands together, he suggested that a simple 'xièxiè [thank you]' to China and also expressing gratitude to Taiwan should suffice. 'Why bother meddling everywhere?' [Lee] further questioned the relevance of the Taiwan Strait issue to South Korea, asking, 'Whatever happens in the Taiwan Strait, whatever happens with China and Taiwan's domestic issues, what does it matter to us?'"[12] The newspaper characterized Lee's remarks as "kowtowing" to China.[13] The Straits Times newspaper of Singapore described this controversy in an April 2025 dispatch from Seoul under the headline "Pro-China remarks haunt S. Korea's presidential hopeful Lee Jae-myung amid West Sea dispute."[14] (Source: Straits Times, April 26, 2025) On June 8, 2023, while visiting China's embassy in Seoul, Lee enraged conservatives, for backing Chinese ambassador Xing Haiming's criticism of Pro-U.S. conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol's foreign policy.[15] Lee also offered no objections or attempts at rebuttal as China's ambassador issued what were widely viewed as thinly veiled threats against the ROK. "In a situation where the U.S. is pressuring China with all its might, some are betting that the U.S. will win and China will lose. What I can say for sure is that those who bet now on China's defeat will surely regret it later," the Chinese ambassador said.[16] On June 8, 2023, Lee Jae-myung was pictured bowing deeply to Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Xing Haiming. The bow was apparently not reciprocated and was not standard diplomatic protocol for a party leader and legislator greeting a foreign ambassador. (Source: June 8, 2023) China Is Trying To Expand Its Influence In The West Sea And Create A Basis For Future Territorial Claims Concerns about China's aggressive moves, viewed as attempts at territorial expansion in the seas of the Western Pacific, are not limited to the South China Sea. Chinese military aircraft have in recent years been routinely entering the ROK's air defense identification zone, and Chinese military vessels have been regularly entering the ROK's maritime exclusive economic zone, necessitating the scrambling of ROK fighter jets and coast guard ships. China has also in recent years, and especially in recent months, been installing massive steel structures, fixed installations, in the ocean area where each nation's exclusive economic zones overlap in the West Sea (also known as that Yellow Sea) off the coast of the ROK. In an April 21, 2025 editorial, the ROK's Chosun Ilbo newspaper warned that "Beijing appears to be employing the same incremental tactics it used in the South China Sea to assert de facto control over contested maritime areas." As might be expected given their worldview and ideological tendencies, and in particular their troubling positions and statements regarding China, Lee and his DPK refused to join the conservative People Power Party in immediately condemning of these Chinese moves. Lee and his party remained silent even in the immediate aftermath of a tense standoff between Chinese and ROK coast guard vessels in late February of 2025, which resulted when China threatened and blocked an ROK oceanographic research ship from conducting a legitimate investigation in the area of the Chinese structures.[17] In light of the initial silence from Lee and his Party, a March 24, 2025 Chosun Ilbo editorial lamented: "It is hard to understand how a party that has shown an allergic reaction to discussing ways to protect us from North Korea's nuclear threat is [also] silent about China's West Sea threat."[18] "In January, China installed a large steel structure within the South Korea–China Provisional Measures Zone in the West Sea (also known as the Yellow Sea). The structure measures 70 meters in diameter and 71 meters in height. China claims the structure is a fish farm, but experts say its appearance closely resembles that of an oil drilling platform. Concerns that China may use these structures in the future to assert territorial claims in the West Sea are growing." (Source: Yonhap; March 24, 2025) CCP Espionage in S. Korea Mirroring what appears to be an upsurge in Chinese surveillance and espionage activities in the U.S. in recent years, the ROK has been experiencing a major increase in acts of surveillance and espionage by Chinese nationals. In the past few months alone, there have been several incidents of Chinese visitors to the ROK apprehended while taking photos and videos of U.S. and ROK air force and naval facilities, including U.S. fighter jets based in the ROK and U.S. warships docked in ROK ports. One pair of Chinese nationals was even caught engaging in such intelligence-gathering activities twice within a few days. "We believe they may be systematically recording the movements of South Korean and U.S. military aircraft to build a database," according to a military official.[19] It was disclosed in May that a Chinese intelligence agent was recently arrested for seeking to obtain military secrets from a Korean soldier. The spy was attempting to gather information on the THAAD system, U.S.-ROK military drills, contingency plans of U.S. forces in Korea, and other classified ROK military documents.[20] A 10-member Chinese spy ring was tasked with obtaining information on anti-China groups in the ROK.[21] A Chinese national was also caught using a drone to film the headquarters of the ROK's National Intelligence Service.[22] In November 2024, according to media reports, the ROK's Board of Audit and Inspection disclosed the results of an investigation, which alleged that some of the highest officials of the former Moon administration, including Moon's National Security Advisor, were sharing classified information regarding the U.S. THAAD system, and details of its deployment in the ROK, not only with pro-North Korean and other far-left radicals who were staging violent protests at the deployment site, but also with officials of China's embassy in Seoul.[23] As the Korea Herald reported on November 19, 2024, Moon's National Security Advisor and three other top-raking officials of his administration were "accused of informing activists opposed to South Korea's hosting of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system beforehand of plans by U.S. and South Korean forces to replace a THAAD battery missile," and were "also accused of giving an advance briefing to a defense attaché at the Chinese Embassy in Seoul on the details of the missile replacement operation."[24] Moon's National Security Advisor was formally indicted in April, and his trial commenced in May.[25] To date, the instances of illegal surveillance and espionage by Chinese nationals in the ROK cannot be prosecuted as acts of espionage. As the Chosun Ilbo notes, "most of the individuals involved have faced little to no punishment. Many are let off with warnings due to legal limitations."[26] This is due to the fact that under current ROK law, the specific crime of espionage is defined as an act which is conducted for the benefit of an "enemy state," and such an enemy state is interpreted to mean only North Korea. Therefore, such acts are not punishable as espionage if they were conducted on behalf of China or any other state (except North Korea). The solution to this dilemma would seem easy enough. The legislature would simply have to expand coverage of the law in question to include other nations. The conservative People Power Party has been attempting to do precisely that, by proposing that the term "enemy state" (i.e., exclusively North Korea) be changed to "foreign countries or equivalent organizations." Although a few individual members of the DPK had originally indicated support for this change, a matter of basic national security, the DPK (which has a strong majority in the legislature) reversed its stance, and has since been using every opportunity to delay a change in the law. One of the top leaders of the People Power Party asserts that the DPK is using delaying tactics because "candidate Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party of Korea are consistently bowing to China, which is why China views South Korea lightly."[27] The Chosun Ilbo assessed that "the [Democratic] party's hesitation may stem from its ties to China, given the longstanding connections between DPK figures and the Chinese Communist Party."[28] DPK Flag Displayed At 100th Anniversary CCP Founding The various ROK political parties (of all ideological stripes) and many of the politicians who belong to them have ties to China to varying degrees, and some government officials and legislators have therefore been reluctant to significantly (or at least publicly) condemn CCP influence in the ROK. In late 2022, the 100 founding members of the "Korea-China Parliamentary Federation" included politicians from both major ROK parties. However, the connections between the DPK (and its key leaders) and China have certainly been far friendlier in tone, far more substantial in scope, and even more political in nature than those of other parties. This was demonstrated several years ago, when the ROK's Yonhap News reported in July 2019 that the DPK's think tank, "The Institute for Democracy," signed an exchange and cooperation agreement with the "Central Party School" of the CCP. Yang Jeong-cheol, director of the Democratic Research Institute, shakes hands with Li Zhi, vice president of the Chinese Party School, after signing an exchange agreement in Beijing in 2029. (Source: The reported: 'Nine months before the April 2020 National Election in Korea, the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) (or Deobureo Minjoo Dang in Korean, 더불어민주당) also signed an agreement with the CCP on July 10, 2019. Yang Jung-chul (양정철), then-Director of the Institute for Democracy, an arm of the DPK responsible for election strategy, visited Beijing in July 2019 and signed an agreement with the CCP Central Committee's Party School (Central Party School), which produces the party elites. Initially, it was established as Marx School of Communism under the CCP Central Committee in 1933. The CCP Central Party School superintendents include Xi Jinping, Hu Jintao, and Mao Zedong." (Source: November 5, 2023) As documented in 2025 by the ROK's Maeil Shinmun news website, when the CCP held an event in 2021 to commemorate the 100th anniversary of its founding, the venue included a display of the flags of political parties from across world which were supportive of or friendly to their party, and tellingly, one of the flags featured was that of the DPK. At the CCP's 100th anniversary of its founding, the venue included a display of the flags of political parties. One of the flags featured was that of the DPK. (Source: The ROK Would Be Compelled To Adopt A Formally Neutral Yet Essentially Pro-China Foreign Policy The Korean author Bok Geo-il warned about the risk of a potential "Finlandization" of the ROK. That is a scenario under which China would not directly control the ROK, and the nation would not lose its de jure independence but would slowly yet inexorably be transformed into a de facto satellite state, with China exercising the type of suzerain role that it had over Korea in ancient history. The ROK would thereby be compelled to adopt a formally neutral yet essentially pro-China foreign policy, just as Finland was forced to do by the Soviet Union during the decades of the Cold War. There are pro-North Korea and other far-left groups and activists, in both the ROK and the U.S., who have been advocating precisely such a "neutralization" of the ROK. Since such a massive geopolitical shift would clearly necessitate the end of the U.S.-ROK alliance, a longstanding goal of China, North Korea, and their sympathizers in the ROK and the U.S., that scenario would not only prove to be a disaster for the people of the ROK and their sovereign rights, but also an extremely grave blow to the U.S. strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region and to American interests more broadly. To the extent that the DPK and its presidential candidate Lee would move the ROK incrementally closer to China, both Koreans and Americans will have reason for deep concern if he is elected on June 3. *Lawrence Peck is a freelance writer and researcher based in Los Angeles and Seoul. Having intensively researched and closely monitored the activities of pro-North Korea and other extremist groups and activists in the U.S. for over 25 years, he has been recognized in the U.S. and Korea as one of the leading American authorities on such topics, and has lectured, written extensively and been interviewed on such topics in the U.S. and Korea. He has a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and a Juris Doctor degree from Loyola Law School of Los Angeles. He previously worked in Korea for several of the largest Korean business groups in the fields of intellectual property licensing and international business development. He has also served as an advisor to the North Korea Freedom Coalition of the U.S.
New Straits Times
22-05-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Korea's new leader's big challenge: Keeping US and China happy
Since United States President Donald Trump began his second term, key Asian ally South Korea has not had an elected leader — meaning crucially, no one to bargain with Washington on tariffs. With the country now set to vote in a presidential election on June 3, the new leader will need to juggle finding ways to stay out of Trump's trade wars with keeping both Washington — Seoul's main security partner against the nuclear-armed North — and neighbouring Beijing happy. There are two main contenders for the top job: front-runner ex-opposition leader Lee Jae-myung and conservative Kim Moon-soo. Lee, a charismatic former child factory worker turned human rights lawyer, has been dubbed "South Korea's Bernie Sanders" for his strong support of a basic income, advocating measures like direct cash payments to spur economic growth. But he's been dogged by a string of scandals, although a court recently delayed a retrial that could have derailed his bid for office. Kim was once a labour and pro-democracy activist fighting military authoritarian regimes, but he shifted his views after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Kim is solidly in second, trailing Lee by 22 per cent, according to the most recent Gallup poll. Both candidates have made the economy their top priority, but their approaches are sharply different. Lee's first pledge is to make South Korea "a global economic powerhouse" — and it seems, analysts say, he's taking his left-wing party more to the centre. Lee's Democratic Party previously "emphasised labour rights and distribution, but now it is leaning towards economic growth", said Kim Yong-jin, a professor at Sogang University. Kim's conservative People Power Party, on the other hand, tends to focus more on "corporate policies rather than the national policies," he added, with their candidate emphasising his pro-business approach. Branding himself as the "job president and economy president", Kim has repeatedly emphasised that "the key to an economic overhaul is regulatory reform" — ironically for a former labour activist. South Korea's next leader will need to carefully balance its relationships with main security ally Washington and key trading partner and neighbour Beijing. Lee claims he's not in a rush to strike a new tariff deal with the US, saying he would be "prioritising national interests" above quickly sorting things out with the White House. In contrast, Kim says the most important thing for export-focused South Korea is to maintain a good relationship with Trump. "I have a very friendly and trusting relationship" with the US leader, he said, vowing to "immediately" hold a summit if elected. Lee has often been accused of being too China-friendly, saying in 2024 Taiwan was "none of our business" — a message his opponent says is "alarming". But neither candidate was really bringing fresh ideas on balancing these key foreign policy ties, said Park Seung-chan, a professor of Chinese studies at Yongin University. "Our past approach of simply siding with the stronger power is no longer viable," he said. Already hit by 25 per cent tariff on automobiles — a key export — South Korea is "highly sensitive" to tariffs, said Park Sang-byung, a political commentator. South Korean officials are in Washington trying to negotiate a "trade package" aimed at preventing new levies, but progress has been slowed by the lack of an elected leader. With export performance and economic growth rate "already facing significant concerns, if we do not actively respond to Trump's tariff war, South Korea could find itself in a very difficult situation", said Park. At this point, anyone is better than no one, experts say. Following ex-president Yoon Suk Yeol's disastrous declaration of martial law and the impeachment, South Korea has cycled through two acting presidents, one of whom was the finance minister, and is now on its third. "A country needs its chief executive officer, the president, and right now South Korea is desperate," said Kim Dae-jong, a professor at Sejong University. "Typically, the president determines about 90 per cent of a country's fate," he said. Until there is a new leader in place, all negotiations are at a halt, with Vice-Trade Minister Park Seung-taek saying it was "theoretically impossible" to sort things out until after the election.
Gulf Today
22-05-2025
- Business
- Gulf Today
South Korea vote: Who will run Asia's 4th largest economy?
Since US President Donald Trump began his second term, key Asian ally South Korea has not had an elected leader — meaning crucially, no one to bargain with Washington on tariffs. With the country now set to vote in a presidential election on June 3, the new leader will need to juggle finding ways to stay out of Trump's trade wars with keeping both Washington — Seoul's main security partner against the nuclear-armed North — and neighbouring Beijing happy. There are two main contenders for the top job: front-runner ex-opposition leader Lee Jae-myung and conservative Kim Moon-soo. Lee, a charismatic former child factory worker turned human rights lawyer, has been dubbed "South Korea's Bernie Sanders" for his strong support of a basic income, advocating measures like direct cash payments to spur economic growth. But he's been dogged by a string of scandals, although a court recently delayed a retrial which could have derailed his bid for office. Kim was once a labour and pro-democracy activist fighting military authoritarian regimes, but he shifted his views after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Kim is solidly in second, trailing Lee by 22 percent, according to the most recent Gallup poll. Both candidates have made the economy their top priority, but their approaches are sharply different. Lee's first pledge is to make South Korea "a global economic powerhouse" — and it seems, analysts say, he's taking his left-wing party more to the centre. Lee's Democratic Party previously "emphasised labour rights and distribution, but now it is leaning toward economic growth," said Kim Yong-jin, a professor at Sogang University. Kim's conservative People Power Party, on the other hand, tends to focus more on "corporate policies rather than the national policies," he added, with their candidate emphasising his pro-business approach. Branding himself as the "job president and economy president", Kim has repeatedly emphasised that "the key to an economic overhaul is regulatory reform", — ironically for a former labour activist. South Korea's next leader will need to carefully balance its relationships with main security ally Washington and key trading partner and neighbour Beijing. Front-runner Lee claims he's not in a rush to strike a new tariff deal with the United States, saying he will be "prioritising national interests" above quickly sorting things out with the White House. In contrast, Kim says the most important thing for export-focused South Korea is to maintain a good relationship with Trump. "I have a very friendly and trusting relationship," with the US leader, he said, vowing to "immediately" hold a summit if elected. Lee has often been accused of being too China-friendly, saying in 2024 that Taiwan was "none of our business" — a message his opponent says is "alarming". But neither candidate is really bringing fresh ideas on balancing these key foreign policy ties, said Park Seung-chan, a professor of Chinese studies at Yongin University. "Our past approach of simply siding with the stronger power is no longer viable," he said. Already hit by 25 per cent tariff on automobiles — a key export — South Korea is "highly sensitive" to tariffs, Park Sang-byung, a political commentator, told AFP. South Korean officials are currently in Washington trying to negotiate a "trade package" aimed at preventing new levies, but progress has been slowed by the lack of an elected leader. With export performance and economic growth rate "already facing significant concerns, if we do not actively respond to Trump's tariff war, South Korea could find itself in a very difficult situation," said Park. At this point, anyone is better than no one, experts say. Following ex-president Yoon Suk Yeol's disastrous declaration of martial law and the impeachment, South Korea has cycled through two acting presidents, one of whom was the finance minister, and is now on its third. "A country needs its CEO, the president, and right now South Korea is desperate," Kim Dae-jong, a professor at Sejong University, told AFP. "Typically, the president determines about 90 per cent of a country's fate," said Kim. Until there is a new leader in place, all negotiations are at a halt, with vice trade minister Park Seung-taek saying it is "theoretically impossible" to sort things out until after the election. Without a president — or even a finance minister — it is a "major crisis" for South Korea, "a situation where a lack of leadership is a serious problem," Kim added.
Eyewitness News
21-05-2025
- Business
- Eyewitness News
South Korea vote: Who will run Asia's fourth largest economy?
SEOUL - Since US President Donald Trump began his second term, key Asian ally South Korea has not had an elected leader -- meaning crucially, no one to bargain with Washington on tariffs. With the country now set to vote in a presidential election on June 3, the new leader will need to juggle finding ways to stay out of Trump's trade wars with keeping both Washington -- Seoul's main security partner against the nuclear-armed North -- and neighbouring Beijing happy. Who's in the running? There are two main contenders for the top job: front-runner ex-opposition leader Lee Jae-myung and conservative Kim Moon-soo. Lee, a charismatic former child factory worker turned human rights lawyer, has been dubbed "South Korea's Bernie Sanders" for his strong support of a basic income, advocating measures like direct cash payments to spur economic growth. But he's been dogged by a string of scandals, although a court recently delayed a retrial which could have derailed his bid for office. Kim was once a labour and pro-democracy activist fighting military authoritarian regimes, but he shifted his views after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Kim is solidly in second, trailing Lee by 22 percent, according to the most recent Gallup poll. Economic priorities? Both candidates have made the economy their top priority, but their approaches are sharply different. Lee's first pledge is to make South Korea "a global economic powerhouse" -- and it seems, analysts say, he's taking his left-wing party more to the centre. Lee's Democratic Party previously "emphasised labour rights and distribution, but now it is leaning toward economic growth," said Kim Yong-jin, a professor at Sogang University. Kim's conservative People Power Party, on the other hand, tends to focus more on "corporate policies rather than the national policies," he added, with their candidate emphasising his pro-business approach. Branding himself as the "job president and economy president", Kim has repeatedly emphasised that "the key to an economic overhaul is regulatory reform", ironically for a former labour activist. What about the US, China? South Korea's next leader will need to carefully balance its relationships with main security ally Washington and key trading partner and neighbour Beijing. Front-runner Lee claims he's not in a rush to strike a new tariff deal with the United States, saying he will be "prioritising national interests" above quickly sorting things out with the White House. In contrast, Kim says the most important thing for export-focused South Korea is to maintain a good relationship with Trump. "I have a very friendly and trusting relationship," with the US leader, he said, vowing to "immediately" hold a summit if elected. Lee has often been accused of being too China-friendly, saying in 2024 that Taiwan was "none of our business" -- a message his opponent says is "alarming". But neither candidate is really bringing fresh ideas on balancing these key foreign policy ties, said Park Seung-chan, a professor of Chinese studies at Yongin University. "Our past approach of simply siding with the stronger power is no longer viable," he said. What are the stakes? Already hit by 25 percent tariff on automobiles -- a key export -- South Korea is "highly sensitive" to tariffs, Park Sang-byung, a political commentator, told AFP. South Korean officials are currently in Washington trying to negotiate a "trade package" aimed at preventing new levies, but progress has been slowed by the lack of an elected leader. With export performance and economic growth rate "already facing significant concerns, if we do not actively respond to Trump's tariff war, South Korea could find itself in a very difficult situation," said Park. Does it matter who wins? At this point, anyone is better than no one, experts say. Following ex-president Yoon Suk Yeol's disastrous declaration of martial law and the impeachment, South Korea has cycled through two acting presidents, one of whom was the finance minister, and is now on its third. "A country needs its CEO, the president, and right now South Korea is desperate," Kim Dae-jong, a professor at Sejong University, told AFP. "Typically, the president determines about 90 percent of a country's fate," said Kim. Until there is a new leader in place, all negotiations are at a halt, with vice trade minister Park Seung-taek saying it is "theoretically impossible" to sort things out until after the election. Without a president -- or even a finance minister -- it is a "major crisis" for South Korea, "a situation where a lack of leadership is a serious problem," Kim added.
The Star
21-05-2025
- Business
- The Star
South Korea vote: Who will run Asia's fourth largest economy?
SEOUL: Since US President Donald Trump began his second term, key Asian ally South Korea has not had an elected leader -- meaning crucially, no one to bargain with Washington on tariffs. With the country now set to vote in a presidential election on June 3, the new leader will need to juggle finding ways to stay out of Trump's trade wars with keeping both Washington -- Seoul's main security partner against the nuclear-armed North -- and neighbouring Beijing happy. Who's in the running? There are two main contenders for the top job: front-runner ex-opposition leader Lee Jae-myung and conservative Kim Moon-soo. Lee, a charismatic former child factory worker turned human rights lawyer, has been dubbed "South Korea's Bernie Sanders" for his strong support of a basic income, advocating measures like direct cash payments to spur economic growth. But he's been dogged by a string of scandals, although a court recently delayed a retrial which could have derailed his bid for office. Kim was once a labour and pro-democracy activist fighting military authoritarian regimes, but he shifted his views after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Kim is solidly in second, trailing Lee by 22 per cent, according to the most recent Gallup poll. Economic priorities? Both candidates have made the economy their top priority, but their approaches are sharply different. Lee's first pledge is to make South Korea "a global economic powerhouse" -- and it seems, analysts say, he's taking his left-wing party more to the centre. Lee's Democratic Party previously "emphasised labour rights and distribution, but now it is leaning toward economic growth," said Kim Yong-jin, a professor at Sogang University. Kim's conservative People Power Party, on the other hand, tends to focus more on "corporate policies rather than the national policies," he added, with their candidate emphasising his pro-business approach. Branding himself as the "job president and economy president", Kim has repeatedly emphasised that "the key to an economic overhaul is regulatory reform", -- ironically for a former labour activist. What about the US, China? South Korea's next leader will need to carefully balance its relationships with main security ally Washington and key trading partner and neighbour Beijing. Front-runner Lee claims he's not in a rush to strike a new tariff deal with the United States, saying he will be "prioritising national interests" above quickly sorting things out with the White House. In contrast, Kim says the most important thing for export-focused South Korea is to maintain a good relationship with Trump. "I have a very friendly and trusting relationship," with the US leader, he said, vowing to "immediately" hold a summit if elected. Lee has often been accused of being too China-friendly, saying in 2024 that Taiwan was "none of our business" -- a message his opponent says is "alarming". But neither candidate is really bringing fresh ideas on balancing these key foreign policy ties, said Park Seung-chan, a professor of Chinese studies at Yongin University. "Our past approach of simply siding with the stronger power is no longer viable," he said. What are the stakes? Already hit by 25 per cent tariff on automobiles -- a key export -- South Korea is "highly sensitive" to tariffs, Park Sang-byung, a political commentator, told AFP. South Korean officials are currently in Washington trying to negotiate a "trade package" aimed at preventing new levies, but progress has been slowed by the lack of an elected leader. With export performance and economic growth rate "already facing significant concerns, if we do not actively respond to Trump's tariff war, South Korea could find itself in a very difficult situation," said Park. Does it matter who wins? At this point, anyone is better than no one, experts say. Following ex-president Yoon Suk-yeol's disastrous declaration of martial law and the impeachment, South Korea has cycled through two acting presidents, one of whom was the finance minister, and is now on its third. "A country needs its CEO, the president, and right now South Korea is desperate," Kim Dae-jong, a professor at Sejong University, told AFP. "Typically, the president determines about 90 per cent of a country's fate," said Kim. Until there is a new leader in place, all negotiations are at a halt, with vice trade minister Park Seung-taek saying it is "theoretically impossible" to sort things out until after the election. Without a president -- or even a finance minister -- it is a "major crisis" for South Korea, "a situation where a lack of leadership is a serious problem," Kim added. - AFP
