4 days ago
Donald Trump steals Xi Jinping's favourite foreign policy
FOR AN ECONOMIC and military giant, China is strangely drawn to pint-size diplomacy. Though it is a bully in its backyard, China is cautious farther from home. In such hotspots as the Middle East, it is transactional, self-interested and focused on business deals. China often acts like a middle power, as if competing in the same league as Turkey or the United Arab Emirates.
This approach has survived the rise of Xi Jinping, the most powerful Communist Party chief in decades. At home Mr Xi talks of returning China to global pre-eminence and of building world-class armies to smash any foe. To foreigners Mr Xi frames his country as a peace-loving giant. When Chinese trade missions set off down the ancient Silk Road, they did not seek to conquer new lands, Mr Xi declared in 2023. He was addressing trade partners gathered to mark the first decade of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a big Chinese lending and infrastructure scheme. Chinese travellers 'are remembered as friendly emissaries leading camel caravans and sailing ships loaded with goods', said Mr Xi.
Even in regions stalked by sectarian violence, ethnic hatred and religious extremism, Chinese leaders propose prosperity as a cure-all. In 2016 Mr Xi told the Arab League: 'Turmoil in the Middle East stems from the lack of development, and the ultimate solution will depend on development.' The use of force has brought disaster to the region, Mr Xi went on. Happily, he said, China could offer trade, technology and infrastructure to help Arab governments pursue reforms without jeopardising stability.
Scholars in China praise this as 'Chinese wisdom' and a source of diplomatic strength. Because China is all about business, they aver, their country can sign energy and construction contracts with opposing sides in a civil war, as happened some years ago in Libya. Pragmatic China can play mediator between such foes as Iran and Saudi Arabia, which restored diplomatic relations after China-hosted meetings in 2023.
A new book, 'China's Changing Role in the Middle East. Filling a Power Vacuum?' by Chuchu Zhang of Fudan University, offers a useful survey. At times it is boosterish, for instance when it glosses over the large role that Iraq and Oman played in brokering that Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. But it is commendably frank about narrow interests that sometimes guide Chinese diplomacy. In the book a former Chinese ambassador explains why, just over a decade ago, his country vetoed several UN Security Council resolutions to impose sanctions on Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria for the alleged use of chemical weapons against its people and other acts. In the ambassador's telling, China vetoed Western-drafted resolutions so it would be taken seriously in the region, arguing: 'If we hadn't, China would have been excluded from any negotiations concerning Syria or other Middle Eastern issues'.
Ms Zhang reports that 'as an inward-looking power' China's 'biggest interest' in Syria's civil war was the presence of hundreds, possibly thousands, of Uyghur militants from China's far-western region of Xinjiang, fighting alongside Islamist rebels. Praising Mr Assad for combating terrorism, Chinese officials called on outside powers to 'abandon the fantasy of regime change' in Syria.
China's default response to hard problems is to call for mediation, and to suggest that meddling by an arrogant, hegemonic West is the root cause. Chinese envoys blame American sanctions for the death of civilians, for instance in Iran during the covid-19 pandemic. Time and again they condemn outside powers for trying to impose Western-style democracy. Officials boast that Chinese investments and deals come without political conditions.
Sceptics would add that China favours opaque contracts that allow rulers to enrich themselves. It is a stingy aid donor, pledging $2m in 2023 to UNRWA, the UN agency that assists Palestinians—less than the contribution from Iceland (population 400,000).
Now, though, Chinese leaders face an American president as transactional as they are, and just as scornful of overseas aid. If anything, Mr Trump sounds more contemptuous of predecessors who toppled dictators in freedom's name. In Saudi Arabia on May 13th Donald Trump praised Gulf Arab rulers for 'forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos; where it exports technology, not terrorism.' This progress was achieved without lectures from Westerners, Mr Trump went on. 'In the end the so-called nation-builders wrecked far more nations than they built, and the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves,' he said.
Transactional China meets its match
In February Mr Trump halted graft investigations under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, blaming the law for erecting 'excessive barriers to American commerce'. Though Mr Trump loves economic coercion, his special envoy, Ric Grenell, has claimed that his boss frets that 'sanctions penalise American companies'.
Mr Trump's challenge comes at a painful time for China. Its economy is slowing, leaving less money to invest overseas. BRI lending peaked a decade ago and debts are now coming due across the developing world. As a security provider, China is an also-ran in the Middle East. America makes advanced weapons and world-beating semiconductors and airliners, selling billions of dollars-worth during Mr Trump's visit.
China is not out of the game. It remains a huge energy buyer. It has green technologies to sell. It offers an alternative for leaders eager to hedge their bets. Bluntly, though, its values-free foreign policy has been swiped by a richer rival. Its response will be revealing. If China's commitment to peace through development is sincere then it can stick with pragmatism and deal-cutting. If China's real aim is to shove America aside, then watch out. Mr Trump has given China cause to amp up the ideology, and push harder.
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