Latest news with #China-watcher
Indian Express
02-05-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
New manufacturing PMI data and hopes from May Day holiday rush: What to know
April has been eventful for China. President Donald Trump ramped up tariffs in stages to an eye-watering 145%, though some exceptions were announced later on electronics, perhaps recognising the damage a prolonged, all-encompassing tariff war would cause to the United States. Trump administration officials have also been suggesting that talks are ongoing with China, but as of May 2, there are no details and no clarity. China has been working to cut reliance on the US trade and push domestic consumption, as we reported in our tracker last week. But new data out this week did show some of the inevitable impacts of the US tariffs on Chinese manufacturing. Meanwhile, Beijing has continued to reach out to other nations. Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the BRICS Foreign Ministers' meeting in Rio de Janeiro on Monday (April 28), and spoke of the 'mutual trust and support between China and Russia.' President Xi Jinping will likely visit Moscow for the May 9 Victory Day parade. Here's what has happened in China over the past week. 1. THE CURIOUS CASE OF TARIFF TALKS On Wednesday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said – again – that China and the US were not consulting or negotiating on tariffs. President Trump had said the opposite at least twice earlier in April, once even claiming, in an interview to Time magazine, that the Chinese President had called him. And that same day, Chinese state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) had said that 'the US side has proactively reached out to China through multiple channels, hoping to discuss tariffs'. Bill Bishop, a longtime China-watcher based in the US and author of the Sinocism newsletter, flagged what else the CCTV report said: 'Unless the US takes substantial action, China has no need to enter into talks. However, if the US wants to engage…China can use this opportunity to observe, and even draw out, the US's true intentions…' UPSHOT: The conflicting cloak-and-dagger narratives obscure the situation further. China's counter tariff against the US is now at 125%, even though Reuters has reported that a list of exempt US-made products is being drawn up, and companies are being 'quietly notified'. But there is nothing to suggest an overall change of approach from either side. 2. NEW MANUFACTURING DATA SHOW TARIFF IMPACT Reuters reported that China's factory activity 'contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months in April'. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is based on monthly surveys of purchasing managers of enterprises. A note that accompanied the release pointed to 'sharp changes in [China's] external environment'. In separate though not unrelated news, state media Xinhua reported that a meeting of the Politburo, among the highest decision-making bodies on political affairs, had noted that 'the fundamentals of China's sustained economic recovery needs to be further consolidated, and the impact of external shocks is rising.' Other indicators are flashing, too. Bloomberg reported this week that about 40 US-bound cargo ships are currently waiting at ports in China, 40% down from the number of early April. The Guardian reported that China's total e-commerce shipping to the US dropped 65% by volume in the first three months of the year, but rose by 28% in Europe. UPSHOT: Analysts have said the PMI numbers reflect prevailing negative sentiments, but could be overstating the real impact. But they do point to concerns over trade, and are in line with lowered growth projections for China from the likes of Goldman Sachs. China has long claimed it will survive the tariff war, in part by turning to its domestic market. But low consumption has been a problem for a while now, and reviving it is easier said than done. 3. THERE WILL BE A NEW AMERICAN IN BEIJING On Tuesday, Senate confirmed David Perdue, 75, as the US Ambassador to China. A former Republican Senator, Perdue has previously lived in Hong Kong, and held senior positions at companies such as Reebok. Announcing his pick last year, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Perdue's international business career provided 'valuable expertise to help build our relationship with China', and described him as a 'loyal supporter and friend'. UPSHOT: The filling of a key diplomatic role is important to improve contacts between countries especially when their relationship is at a low point. A direct line to the White House could help – on tariff and other issues – if and when Beijing chooses to engage. Labour Day is a holiday in China, but people can take several consecutive days off as long as they work on the weekend before or after. Labour Day was on Thursday, and the Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times reported that the number of holiday travellers was expected to grow by 8% compared to last year. The average daily highway traffic volume and passenger trips on Shanghai's rail network are projected to rise. UPSHOT: The Global Times stated, 'The May Day break has long served as a barometer of consumer trends.' China is looking to bolster domestic consumption and project self-reliance; it will be looking for hope in the May Day numbers. 5. COMPETING CLAIMS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDERLINED Both the Philippines and China have released photos of their flags in the Spratly islands in the South China Sea, at a place the Filipinos call Sandy Cay and the Chinese call Tiexian Reef. The Associated Press said the sandbars where the photos were clicked are near the Philippines-occupied Thitu Island, and Subi Reef, which China has transformed into a base with a military-grade runway and buildings with communications facilities. UPSHOT: From 2022 onwards, under President Bongbong Marcos, the Philippines has adopted a stronger position against aggressive Chinese claims over the region. Military exercises are currently ongoing between the Philippines and the US, with the participation of more than 14,000 soldiers.
Telegraph
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
China's huge new unmanned submarine lies in wait for HMS Prince of Wales
China appears to have developed an enormous robotic submarine. If so, China's rivals – Taiwan and the United States, among others – need to figure out what the sub is for. And fast. This year, Britain's Royal Navy will also be thinking hard about it, as its Carrier Strike Group has just set out on a voyage to the Indo-Pacific. One possible mission might be among the most alarming. Large unmanned underwater vehicles are uniquely suited for covert minelaying: seeding shallow water with munitions that can break the keel of all but the largest warships. In early February, China-watcher MT Anderson spotted in satellite imagery what appeared to be an approximately 150-foot submarine with cruciform fins and a very short sail. It could be a crewless design – a development of an even larger experimental UUV that appeared in China in 2018. With just that satellite imagery to analyse, it's impossible to say for sure whether the new sub is unmanned and what it's for. But consider: among the many possible scenarios is a Chinese blockade of Taiwan. Last year, the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC concluded that a blockade by the People's Liberation Army is actually the likeliest Chinese strategy for coercing Taiwan. 'This scenario aligns most closely with PLA doctrinal writings,' CSIS pointed out. Underwater minefields, carefully positioned to strangle trade to and from Taiwan, could thread an important strategic needle: weakening Taiwan without provoking US intervention, CSIS pointed out. 'Mines serve to deter vessels from attempting to run the blockade, and they offer a more passive means for the PLA to threaten noncompliant ships,' CSIS explained. 'Without mines, China's forces will need to play a more active role in stopping entry into Taiwan and may therefore be put in more situations in which commanders have to make decisions about exactly how to engage.' An announced military exercise would provide cover for the minelaying. 'During the exercises, PLA submarines covertly lay sea mines at the entrances of Taiwan's major ports,' the think-tank posited. 'The mines are timed to activate later to coincide with the start of blockade operations.' The problem, of course, is how to emplace those mines without the Taiwanese military noticing. The waters around Taiwan are shallow. And Taiwanese and allied intelligence carefully track the comings and goings of the PLA Navy's manned submarines. 'Covert minelaying can be difficult,' according to CSIS. Unmanned submarines, which could spend weeks or even months slowly trawling the China Seas, may stand a better chance of evading detection. Note that the US Navy plans to assign its own large UUV, the 84-foot Orca, to minelaying duties. Deploying the $50-million robotic subs to lay mines not only answers a fleet requirement, Orca program manager Capt. Matt Lewis told The War Zone, it also avoids asking too much of an immature technology. Dropping a mine from the UUV is 'probably most akin to opening a door and having a payload drop out of it, slide out of it, fall out of it,' Lewis said. If the Chinese UUV is also immature – and there's no reason to believe it isn't – it too could perform minelaying missions not just to meet an urgent requirement, but also to make good use of a new technology that's not yet capable of more complex tasks. In that case, it's worth asking: what might the Chinese UUV do next? 'My perception of doing work like this is, we're at the initial stages … similar to aviation back in the early 20th century,' Lewis said of the Orca. 'I think we're at the early stages of figuring all that out. So, tremendous opportunity with Orca to go learn and expand what we can do and provide other new capabilities for the Navy.'
Yahoo
03-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The high stakes of China's ‘Two Sessions' summits this week
Analysts and investors are closely watching China's 'Two Sessions' summit — an annual gathering of Beijing's rubber-stamp parliament and a key political advisory group — to glean clues as to how the country plans to navigate increasingly turbulent geopolitical and economic waters. Beijing is expected to reveal its economic growth targets, its monetary and fiscal priorities, and, perhaps most crucially, its broader policy course. This year's Two Sessions, beginning Tuesday, comes amid persistent economic malaise in China — although investor sentiment has risen in recent weeks — and as the country faces an escalating trade war with the US. The official statements that arise from Two Sessions gatherings are generally marked full of hyperbolic language to describe the country's future plans — think 'momentous' and 'extraordinary' — but this year presents 'a moment for China to match its words with actions,' longtime China-watcher Wang Xiangwei told the South China Morning Post. The week will test how serious Beijing is about boosting domestic consumption, a critical piece of its larger economic plan. China's leadership has acknowledged the challenge, but has yet to fully prioritize it, Wang said: The country needs 'more concrete actions,' such as loosening constraints on private firms and expanding social security benefits to low-income groups 'to make consumers and entrepreneurs feel confident enough to spend again.' China's 31 provinces have already held their own 'mini-Two Sessions meetings' that together provide hints of what to expect from Beijing, The Wire China wrote. The local gatherings 'paint a picture of tacit acknowledgment of challenges and uncertainties,' and 'an economy undergoing a decisive push for industrial transformation.' Central to the latter is artificial intelligence: More than two thirds of provinces outlined plans to integrate AI into other industries, 'an indication that Beijing views AI as a pillar of long-term national competitiveness.' The moves reflect the global success of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's new low-cost model, which lifted investor sentiment around China. In the face of existent US tariffs and President Donald Trump's pledge to hike them further, Beijing has held off from making the kind of swift overtures to Trump that Mexico and Canada have: Chinese officials are 'moving much more cautiously and deliberately as they try to assess Mr. Trump and determine what it is he actually wants,' The New York Times reported. One expert said China is especially suspicious of 'hidden traps' in early talks. That caution could ultimately threaten the initial economic momentum that marked the first months of 2025: Chinese manufacturing activity in February grew at its fastest pace in months, a potential sign that stimulus measures launched late last year are working.
South China Morning Post
02-03-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China watcher Wang Xiangwei on how red tape is stifling growth and why Trump may bring calm
Wang Xiangwei is a veteran China-watcher teaching journalism at Baptist University in Hong Kong, and a former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. As a witness to and recorder of key events involving China for more than three decades, Wang talks to the Post on the country's challenges and opportunities in a fast-changing world. This interview first appeared in SCMP Plus . For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here Advertisement What can we expect from this year's ' two sessions '? How significant will it be in shaping the trajectory of China's development in the coming years? When unveiling China's economic development plans each year, its leaders inevitably use the words 'momentous' and 'extraordinary', their favourite official catchwords, to describe challenges and opportunities for the past year and the year ahead. The year 2025 is set to be 'momentous and extraordinary' in every sense of those two words. We can expect liberal use of those adjectives in the high-sounding slogans at the coming two sessions, but whether China's leaders will follow up with concrete actions remains to be seen. Advertisement In other words, what we expect from the two sessions this year and what the government will deliver can be quite divergent if past experience is any guide.
South China Morning Post
13-02-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Will warmer ties and DeepSeek success boost China-UK economic links?
As Beijing-London relations become warmer, and visits by high-ranking officials resume, a prominent China-watcher has urged the United Kingdom to give serious consideration to further economic engagement with China now that it has leapfrogged tech rivals with the launch of DeepSeek's artificial intelligence (AI) models . 'The main factor now is a clear-sighted recognition in the UK that the economic situation is perilous, and that with China, there are clearly unexplored opportunities that we have to at least look at, even if we don't take them,' said Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese studies and director of the Lau China Institute at King's College, London. 'China remains a minuscule investor in Britain, but with shocks like the success of DeepSeek, it is clear that Britain needs to think hard about the opportunity costs that engagement with China bring.' Foreign Minister Wang Yi was scheduled to hold talks with British counterpart David Lammy in London on Thursday at the first UK-China Strategic Dialogue meeting since July 2018. This follows the resumption of the UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue in Beijing last month, when British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng reached deals worth £600 million (US$746.5 million) to Britain. Bilateral relations had been strained since 2018, with the previous British government criticising Beijing's actions in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region and Hong Kong. Ties cooled further amid the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK's alignment with the United States and Australia in the Aukus security partnership.
