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Arab News
22-05-2025
- Business
- Arab News
US and Europe must reshape their bonds at this time of crisis
For almost two decades, since Barack Obama's presidency, we have been reading about America's 'pivot to Asia.' This is a shift in Washington's focus from Europe and the Middle East to Asia, with the declared objective of countering China's growing influence. On the ground, it has not quite been visible. But this is changing. The US is on the path of shifting strategic resources from Europe to Asia. This is part of the agenda for next month's NATO Summit. This real change puts Europe and the transatlantic alliance on a new dynamic. How will European nations adapt to this change? The US is now actively planning the reallocation of its military resources from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Its objective is to counter China's growing military capabilities. This potential reduction of US troops in Europe will be discussed with its NATO allies. The US Department of Defense has enacted this shift and is increasing defense spending in the Indo-Pacific. It has significantly increased its budget allocations: in fiscal year 2023, Congress appropriated about $11.5 billion for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, surpassing the initial request of $6.1 billion. In comparison, the European Deterrence Initiative received a budget allocation of about $3.7 billion for the same fiscal year, excluding funds for Ukraine. The Pacific funding aims to enhance missile defense systems, radars and space sensors and increase military exercises and training in the region. Media reports have mentioned the modernization of bases in Guam, Okinawa and the Philippines. Moreover, the US is reinforcing strategic alliances such as AUKUS and the Quad, focusing on advanced capabilities and joint military exercises. A major upgrade to the US-Japan security alliance is also underway, enhancing command structures and crisis response coordination. If we read between the lines of European officials, we notice a feeling of abandonment by the US or even, for some, betrayal Khaled Abou Zahr Needless to say, this major shift is taking place at a difficult time for Europe, as war still rages in Ukraine. If we read between the lines of European officials, we notice a feeling of abandonment by the US or even, for some, betrayal. This is an extremely exaggerated reaction and potentially dangerous for Europe and the US. The situation resembles a father telling his pampered son that it is time for him to stand on his own feet. The main risk is the son seeing this as a rejection instead of a constructive action. The immediate reaction is often to prove something to his father, rather than to himself, showing that he can act responsibly. And what typically follows is a reckless and catastrophic misstep. In this case, there is a real risk that, in trying to prove to the US that it can handle its own defense, Europe may rush into an escalation, rather than taking the time to build credible deterrence against Russia. Such a path threatens not only European stability but also the US' strategic repositioning in Asia, which remains a vital line of defense for Europe. This is what we are now seeing on the Ukrainian front: murmurs of escalation, for which NATO and Europe are dangerously unprepared. Despite the mention of sending European troops in case of a lasting peace agreement — as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer indicated — or the possibility of deploying postconflict 'reassurance forces,' as French President Emmanuel Macron stated, these declarations also seem to hold the possibility of sending troops should the conflict continue. While supporting Ukraine will remain a European priority in this scenario, such a decision would be a grave mistake at this stage. What emerges from this current process among European leaders is the wish to prove the US wrong, instead of taking the time to establish a real deterrence. Achieving a unified 3.5 percent defense spending level across Europe continues to be a major challenge. This should be a priority Khaled Abou Zahr This is why it is important for the US and Europe — and for the future stability of the transatlantic alliance — to reshape their bonds and strategic objectives, especially during this time of crisis. To start with, it is positive to see European countries convinced of the need to increase their military spending, with some even taking their defense spending beyond the mooted target of 3.5 percent of gross domestic product. This is the case for Poland, which spent 4.1 percent last year. Lithuania and Denmark have also moved closer, surpassing 3 percent this year. However, many others, especially in Southern Europe, struggle to meet even the current NATO target of 2 percent of GDP. In March, the European Commission launched its 'Readiness 2030' initiative to mobilize funding by 2029. Despite some progress, significant gaps remain and achieving a unified 3.5 percent defense spending level across Europe continues to be a major challenge. This should be a priority to support the ongoing transition. It is also important to make sure there are no gaps in terms of defense and security capabilities. In light of the current situation in Ukraine, Europe will need to expand its military industrial capacity. The current production levels are insufficient to replenish stockpiles, maintain readiness and respond to any sudden conflict scenarios. This is the only way to establish Europe's strategic autonomy within NATO. And it is something Russia has already put in place. The Europeans should also be aware of what is happening in the Indo-Pacific and have a strategy and an objective to engage with allies there. Japan, South Korea, Australia and India are all European allies, so this region should be within its focus. Europe and the US must remain loyal to the transatlantic alliance despite the new challenges. But it is time to turn the page and Europe must gradually build and assert its deterrence capabilities. This requires Europe to avoid overreacting, while taking greater responsibility for its security and engaging more actively, including in the Indo-Pacific.
South China Morning Post
16-05-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Trump caps Gulf tour with America-first policy for peace in Middle East, South Asia
US President Donald Trump wrapped up a tour of three Gulf monarchies on Friday after laying out a dollar-driven agenda for peace in the Middle East and South Asia which analysts said contained measures that aimed to curtail Chinese influence in these regions. The highlight of Trump's three-day visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates was his decision to lift sanctions against Syria's new administration at the behest of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, despite intense opposition from Israel and its many supporters in Congress. Eschewing the interventionist policies of his Republican and Democrat predecessors alike, the America-first policy for the Middle East Trump presented in Riyadh on Tuesday instead envisioned a region stabilised by coordination between Washington's major regional partners. Iran could join in if its leadership agreed to strike a deal that satisfied US concerns about its nuclear programme, Trump said, while India and Pakistan would have to settle their differences under American mediation. US President Donald J Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a bilateral meeting at the Saudi Royal Court on Tuesday, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Photo: TNS 'Trump is distinguishing himself from neoconservatives who constantly seek endless wars in the Middle East and elsewhere,' said Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Washington-based risk consultancy Gulf State Analytics.
Malay Mail
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Malay Mail
China's influence becomes key battleground in Philippines' high-stakes election as Marcos and Duterte camps clash
President Marcos' camp facing off against Duterte clan in polls Maritime confrontations continue in the South China Sea Beijing trying to influence Philippine politics, officials say Most voters back senate candidates who assert Philippine sovereignty — April survey MANILA, May 10 — In political rallies, Senate hearings and voter surveys ahead of Monday's midterm elections in the Philippines, China has been an overwhelming — and unusual — presence. The shadow of its giant maritime neighbour has loomed over the Philippines for years, but as the country's two most prominent political clans flex their muscles in the usually low-key process to pick senators and local government leaders, relations with China have emerged as a political lightning rod. The outcome could end up shaping the country's strategic positioning over the remaining half of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's six-year term, which began in 2022. 'Will we allow ourselves to return to the time when our leaders wanted us to become a province of China?' Marcos asked voters at a rally in February, in a dig at predecessor Rodrigo Duterte and his daughter Sara, who is currently vice president and a key Marcos rival. During his 2016 to 2022 term, Duterte shifted foreign policy on China, adopting conciliatory rhetoric and downplaying disputes in the South China Sea. The strategy drew concern from Washington and raised questions about the Philippines' longstanding security alliance with the United States. In contrast, Marcos has moved to rekindle and deepen ties with Washington. 'These are hot button issues that many Filipino voters can relate to, particularly on the issue on China. There was a time in the past when foreign policy did not really matter that much during elections,' said Ederson Tapia, professor of public administration at the University of Makati. 'But now it does.' An April survey found that a majority of voters in the country of 110 million prefer candidates who assert Philippine sovereignty in the South China Sea, where the Marcos-led administration has taken a more assertive stance in its maritime confrontations with Beijing, which continue unabated. It is a sentiment that Marcos has tapped into since he started his campaign for the slate of Senate candidates that he is backing. In the February rally, Marcos pointed to his candidates, saying: 'None of them were applauding China when our coast guard was being bombed with water, when our fishermen were being blocked, when their catch was stolen, and our islands seized to become part of another country.' China's embassy in Manila did not respond to questions from Reuters. The Duterte camp enjoyed a surge of sympathy when he was arrested by the International Criminal Court in March and taken to The Hague, but Marcos' candidates remain ahead in polls and appear poised to dominate the Senate race. A Duterte spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte arrives to file her counter affidavit in response to the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) complaint over her alleged threat to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, at the Department of Justice in Manila on May 9, 2025. — AFP pic Disinformation proliferation Through a months-long campaign, Marcos has kept up the pressure and focused on China as a key election issue, while his allies have taken aim at Sara Duterte for her silence on China's actions. Sara, a likely future presidential candidate, was once a Marcos ally but now faces an impeachment trial on charges including a threat to assassinate the president if she herself was harmed. In the Philippines, the 24-member Senate acts as the jury in any impeachment trial, making the midterms even more consequential in determining Sara Duterte's political future. Sara, who has denied wrongdoing, has responded to her impeachment with defiance, asking the Supreme Court to nullify the complaint against her. A strong mandate for Marcos would not only define his ability to govern decisively in the remaining three years of his term, but would also shape the 2028 presidential race, said Victor Andres 'Dindo' Manhit, a political analyst and founder of Stratbase Group, a research and advisory firm. Marcos is limited to a single term under the Constitution and is expected to anoint a successor. If she survives impeachment, Sara Duterte would also be eligible to run in 2028. 'Those who will run need to be tested on consistency with regard to these issues,' Manhit said, referring to the protection of Philippines' maritime rights and sovereignty. 'And one of them is the current vice president. She has not spoken against this coercion by China.' A spokesperson for Sara Duterte did not respond to a request for comment. The midterm election comes amid a proliferation of disinformation in the Philippines. Up to 45 per cent of discussions about the elections on social media have been driven by inauthentic accounts, Reuters reported last month. The use of fake accounts and paid influencers for political operations is widespread in the Philippines, but a top security official and a senator alleged last month that Chinese state-sponsored groups might be attempting to influence Filipinos. China's foreign ministry and its embassy in Manila have rejected the accusations. — Reuters
