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Can catlike US tariffs chase China's manufacturing mouse out of the Asean maze?
Can catlike US tariffs chase China's manufacturing mouse out of the Asean maze?

South China Morning Post

time10-07-2025

  • Business
  • South China Morning Post

Can catlike US tariffs chase China's manufacturing mouse out of the Asean maze?

Chinese exporters like Huang Yongxing are desperate for some straight answers so they can start making and shipping goods from their factories in either China or Southeast Asia. And the answers – or at least updates – that Huang does get, he shares on his social media account via weekly updates that have gained traction among owners of small and medium-sized businesses as disruptive and volatile tariff policies out of Washington continue to redraw the profitability lines for manufacturers. They now face a prolonged dilemma over investments, as some of their overseas factories are staring down the barrel of US President Donald Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs of up to 40 per cent on 14 countries , most of which are major destinations for Chinese exports. Trump's move, announced on Monday, puts Southeast Asia – China's largest export market – in Washington's trade crosshairs while dealing a direct blow to Chinese exporters' transshipment strategies throughout the region. American policy ambiguity on transshipment, with high tariffs threatened but lacking implementation details, creates huge uncertainties for outbound Chinese investors. In response, many Chinese companies – both those that have already expanded overseas and those with plans to do so – have had little option but to play it safe.

China's exports slow to three-month low as U.S. tariffs hit shipments
China's exports slow to three-month low as U.S. tariffs hit shipments

Globe and Mail

time09-06-2025

  • Business
  • Globe and Mail

China's exports slow to three-month low as U.S. tariffs hit shipments

China's export growth slowed to a three-month low in May as U.S. tariffs slammed shipments, while factory-gate deflation deepened to its worst level in two years, heaping pressure on the world's second-largest economy on both the domestic and external fronts. U.S. President Donald Trump's global trade war and the swings in Sino-U.S. trade ties have in the past two months sent Chinese exporters, along with their business partners across the Pacific, on a roller coaster ride and hobbled world growth. Underscoring the U.S. tariff impact on shipments, customs data showed that China's exports to the U.S. plunged 34.5 per cent year-on-year in May in value terms, the sharpest drop since February, 2020, when the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic upended global trade. U.S., China set for trade talks in London Canada's trade deficit hits record high $7.1-billion as tariffs hammer exports Total exports from the Asian economic giant expanded 4.8 per cent year-on-year in value terms last month, slowing from the 8.1 per cent jump in April and missing the 5.0 per cent growth expected in a Reuters poll, customs data showed on Monday, despite a lowering of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods which had taken effect in early April. 'It's likely that the May data continued to be weighed down by the peak tariff period,' said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING. Song said there was still front-loading of shipments due to the tariff risks, while acceleration of sales to regions other than the United States helped to underpin China's exports. Imports dropped 3.4 per cent year-on-year, deepening from the 0.2 per cent decline in April and worse than the 0.9 per cent downturn expected in the Reuters poll. Exports had surged 12.4 per cent year-on-year and 8.1 per cent in March and April, respectively, as factories rushed shipments to the U.S. and other overseas manufacturers to avoid Trump's hefty levies on China and the rest of the world. While exporters in China found some respite in May as Beijing and Washington agreed to suspend most of their levies for 90 days, tensions between the world's two largest economies remain high and negotiations are underway over issues ranging from China's rare earths controls to Taiwan. Trade representatives from China and the U.S. are meeting in London on Monday to resume talks after a phone call between their top leaders on Thursday. China's imports from the U.S. also lost further ground, dropping 18.1 per cent from a 13.8 per cent slide in April. Zichun Huang, economist at Capital Economics, expects the slowdown in exports growth to 'partially reverse this month, as it reflects the drop in U.S. orders before the trade truce,' but cautions that shipments will be knocked again by year-end due to elevated tariff levels. China's exports of rare earths jumped sharply in May despite export restrictions on certain types of rare earth products causing plant closures across the global auto supply chain. The latest figures do not distinguish between the 17 rare earth elements and related products, some of which are not subject to restrictions. A clearer picture of the impact of the curbs on exports will only be available when more detailed data is released on June 20. China's May trade surplus came in at US$103.22-billion, up from the US$96.18-billion the previous month. Other data, also released on Monday, showed China's imports of crude oil, coal and iron ore dropped last month, underlining the fragility of domestic demand at a time of rising external headwinds. Beijing in May rolled out a series of monetary stimulus measures, including cuts to benchmark lending rates and a 500-billion-yuan low-cost loan program, aimed at cushioning the trade war's blow to the economy. China's markets showed muted reaction to the data. The blue-chip CSI300 Index climbed 0.29 per cent and the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.43 per cent. Opinion: Canada has an opportunity to reset our relationship with China – and, in a rare twist, on our terms Producer and consumer price data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the same day, showed that deflationary pressures worsened last month. The producer price index fell 3.3 per cent in May from a year earlier, after a 2.7 per cent decline in April and marked the deepest contraction in 22 months. Cooling factory activity also highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on the world's largest manufacturing hub, dampening faster services growth as suspense lingers over the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks. Sluggish domestic demand and weak prices have weighed on China's economy, which has struggled to mount a robust post-pandemic recovery amid a prolonged property slump and has relied on exports to underpin growth. Retail sales growth slowed last month as spending continued to lag due to job insecurity and stagnant new home prices. Businesses have also had to adapt to the falling prices. U.S. coffee chain Starbucks said on Monday it would lower prices of some iced drinks by an average of 5 yuan in China. While the core inflation measure, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, registered a slightly faster 0.6 per cent year-on-year rise, from a 0.5 per cent increase in April, Capital Economics' Huang said the improvement looks 'fragile.' She still expects 'persistent overcapacity will keep China in deflation both this year and next.'

China's May Exports Slow, Deflation Deepens as Tariffs Bite
China's May Exports Slow, Deflation Deepens as Tariffs Bite

Asharq Al-Awsat

time09-06-2025

  • Business
  • Asharq Al-Awsat

China's May Exports Slow, Deflation Deepens as Tariffs Bite

China's export growth slowed to a three-month low in May as US tariffs slammed shipments, while factory-gate deflation deepened to its worst level in two years, heaping pressure on the world's second-largest economy on both the domestic and external fronts. US President Donald Trump's global trade war and the swings in Sino-US trade ties have in the past two months sent Chinese exporters, along with their business partners across the Pacific, on a roller coaster ride and hobbled world growth. Underscoring the US tariff impact on shipments, customs data showed that China's exports to the US plunged 34.5% year-on-year in May in value terms, the sharpest drop since February 2020, when the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic upended global trade. Total exports from the Asian economic giant expanded 4.8% year-on-year in value terms in May, slowing from the 8.1% jump in April and missing the 5.0% growth expected in a Reuters poll, customs data showed on Monday, despite a lowering of US tariffs on Chinese goods which had taken effect in early April. Imports dropped 3.4% year-on-year, deepening sharply from the 0.2% decline in April and worse than the 0.9% downturn expected in the Reuters poll. Exports had surged 12.4% year-on-year and 8.1% in March and April, respectively, as factories rushed shipments to the US and other overseas manufacturers to avoid Trump's hefty levies on China and the rest of the world. While exporters in China found some respite in May as Beijing and Washington agreed to suspend most of their levies for 90 days, tensions between the world's two largest economies remain high and negotiations are underway over issues ranging from China's rare earths controls to Taiwan. Trade representatives from China and the US are meeting in London on Monday to resume talks after a phone call between their top leaders on Thursday. "Export growth was likely stalled by heavy customs inspections in May due to tightened export control efforts," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, noting that rare earth exports nearly halved last month, while electric machinery exports also slowed significantly. China's imports to the US also lost further ground, dropping 18.1% from a 13.8% slide in April. Zichun Huang, economist at Capital Economics, expects the slowdown in exports growth to "partially reverse this month, as it reflects the drop in US orders before the trade truce," but cautions that shipments will be knocked again by year-end due to elevated tariff levels. China's May trade surplus came in at $103.22 billion, up from the $96.18 billion the previous month. Other data, also released on Monday, showed China's import of crude oil, coal, and iron ore dropped last month, underlining the fragility of domestic demand at a time of rising external headwinds. Beijing in May rolled out a series of monetary stimulus measures, including cuts to benchmark lending rates and a 500 billion yuan low-cost loan program for supporting elderly care and services consumption. The measures are aimed at cushioning the trade war's blow to an economy that relied on exports in its recovery from the pandemic shocks and a protracted property market slump. China's markets showed muted reaction to the data. The blue-chip CSI300 Index and the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index were up around 0.2%. DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES Producer and consumer price data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the same day, showed that deflationary pressures worsened last month. The producer price index fell 3.3% in May from a year earlier, after a 2.7% decline in April and marked the deepest contraction in 22 months, while consumer prices extended declines, having dipped 0.1% last month from a year earlier. Cooling factory activity also highlights the impact of US tariffs on the world's largest manufacturing hub, dampening faster services growth as suspense lingers over the outcome of US-China trade talks. Sluggish domestic demand and weak prices have weighed on China's economy, which has struggled to mount a robust post-pandemic recovery and has relied on exports to underpin growth. Retail sales growth slowed last month as spending continued to lag amid job insecurity and stagnant new home prices. US coffee chain Starbucks said on Monday it would lower prices of some iced drinks by an average of 5 yuan in China. The core inflation measure, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, registered a 0.6% year-on-year rise, slightly faster than a 0.5% increase in April. However, Capital Economics Huang said the improvement in core prices looks "fragile", adding "we still think persistent overcapacity will keep China in deflation both this year and next."

US-China trade talks to begin this weekend
US-China trade talks to begin this weekend

BBC News

time07-05-2025

  • Business
  • BBC News

US-China trade talks to begin this weekend

In this World Business Report special, Will Bain looks at how US tariffs have affected the Chinese economy, with the two countries set to hold their first talks since the start of the trade war. The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will meet China's Vice Premier, He Lifeng, in Switzerland on Saturday. The US introduced a one- hundred and forty-five percent tariff on Chinese imports last month, while China placed retaliatory one hundred and twenty five percent import taxes on American goods. Will hears from Chinese exporters and trade experts.

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