Latest news with #ChiragMuni
Economic Times
05-08-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
SIP or stop? What smart investors should do in 2025's market volatility
With global uncertainty rising and market volatility back in focus, many investors are asking, "Should I continue my SIPs or pause them?" In this exclusive conversation, ET Markets speaks to Chirag Muni, Executive Director at Anand Rathi Wealth, to decode the current scenario and outline the right mutual fund strategy for today's market. ADVERTISEMENT Excerpts: Q. Let's begin with Trump's move. The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports. Do you see this as an alarm or an opportunity for SIP investors? Chirag Muni: While the 25% tariff sounds severe, markets haven't reacted sharply, partly because there's still a lack of clarity. The market did open lower but recovered quickly, possibly also due to the monthly expiry. In the long term, India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong. Our export dependency on the U.S. isn't significant enough to cause a massive dent. Preliminary estimates suggest that the GDP impact may be around 0.2%–0.3% if the full tariffs are there are talks of penalties related to India's continued imports of Russian oil, but these are still unconfirmed. Overall, from a 3–5 year perspective, India's outlook remains positive. So, market dips should be seen as an opportunity rather than a reason to panic. It's a good time to accumulate on dips.Q. Some investors are panicking and considering redeeming mutual fund investments. Should they hold or exit? And what about continuing their SIPs? ADVERTISEMENT Chirag Muni: If you're already invested, stay put. Rebalance only if your equity exposure is above 75–80%. If you're between 60–70%, there's little reason to worry. As for SIPs — absolutely continue. SIPs work because of rupee cost averaging. When markets fall, you get more units; when markets rise, fewer. This naturally reduces your average cost per unit. ADVERTISEMENT For example, let's say you started an SIP in January investing ₹10,000 monthly. If the NAV fluctuated between ₹9 and ₹13, your average cost would still be favorable compared to investing a lump sum at a peak.Q. Should new investors start an SIP now or wait for a dip? ADVERTISEMENT Chirag Muni: Timing the market is tough. We did a study over the past 25 years, even if someone invested at the peak of each month, they earned ~11.19% returns. Those who invested at monthly lows got ~12.65%, and a disciplined mid-month investor earned ~11.84%.So, the difference isn't significant. If you have investable surplus, start now. Waiting rarely helps in the long run. ADVERTISEMENT Q. What's your view on step-up SIPs in the current environment? Chirag Muni: Step-up SIPs are incredibly effective and often underutilized. Let's say a 25-year-old starts a ₹5,000 SIP and continues for 35 years — they might build a corpus of ₹3.5 crore. But if they increase the SIP by 10% annually, the corpus could grow to ₹9.4 crore! Even a ₹25,000 SIP can become ₹17.5 crore over 35 years, but with a 10% annual step-up, that corpus can grow to ₹47 crore. So yes, step-up SIPs are a powerful way to grow wealth over time.Q. Investors often wonder... which date of the month is best for SIPs? Chirag Muni: We looked at 25 years of data and tested SIPs started on every date of the month. The return difference between the best and worst-performing dates was just 0.15%. So, the date doesn't matter. What matters is consistency. Pick a date you're comfortable with and stick to it. Q. Do SIPs outperform lump sum investments? Chirag Muni: Yes, especially in volatile markets. In 20 out of 24 calendar years, SIPs offered a better average entry cost than lump sum investing. Over the last 10 years, SIPs outperformed lump sum in 90% of cases. Rupee cost averaging helps navigate volatility effectively — making SIPs the better choice for most retail investors.Q. What's an ideal investment horizon for SIPs? Chirag Muni: A minimum of 3–4 years is essential. Over three years, 90% of SIPs deliver positive returns. If you hold for five years, the probability of 10%+ returns goes up to 85%. For 15 years, it becomes 95%. Also, even if the first year shows negative returns, holding on for three more years often delivers 11–12% CAGR. So patience and discipline are key.Q. Given current domestic and global uncertainty, should investors review or rebalance their SIPs? Chirag Muni: Absolutely. While SIPs are automated, reviewing your portfolio annually is important. Evaluate scheme performance, asset allocation, and market cap exposure. If a scheme underperforms for a long time or your allocation becomes skewed, consider rebalancing. Regular monitoring is essential for long-term success. Q. Where should SIP investors focus: large, mid, or smallcap funds? Chirag Muni: Largecaps are less volatile, but mid and smallcaps offer higher return potential over longer horizons. From 2014 to 2024: Largecap (Nifty 100): Avg return ~12.6% Avg return ~12.6% Midcap: Avg return ~16.8% Avg return ~16.8% Smallcap: Avg return ~14% If you have a 5+ year horizon, a higher allocation to mid and smallcaps can make sense. Diversify across market caps for balanced growth.Q. What's a good market cap allocation mix for current conditions? Chirag Muni: Right now, a balanced allocation could be: Largecap: 55% 55% Midcap: 22–23% 22–23% Smallcap: ~20% This mix offers relative stability with growth potential. Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts/brokerages do not represent the views of Economic Times.
Time of India
05-08-2025
- Business
- Time of India
SIP or stop? What smart investors should do in 2025's market volatility
With global uncertainty rising and market volatility back in focus, many investors are asking, "Should I continue my SIPs or pause them?" In this exclusive conversation, ET Markets speaks to Chirag Muni, Executive Director at Anand Rathi Wealth, to decode the current scenario and outline the right mutual fund strategy for today's market. Excerpts: Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program Q. Let's begin with Trump's move. The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports. Do you see this as an alarm or an opportunity for SIP investors? Chirag Muni: While the 25% tariff sounds severe, markets haven't reacted sharply, partly because there's still a lack of clarity. The market did open lower but recovered quickly, possibly also due to the monthly expiry. In the long term, India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong. Our export dependency on the U.S. isn't significant enough to cause a massive dent. Preliminary estimates suggest that the GDP impact may be around 0.2%–0.3% if the full tariffs are enforced. Also, there are talks of penalties related to India's continued imports of Russian oil, but these are still unconfirmed. Overall, from a 3–5 year perspective, India's outlook remains positive. So, market dips should be seen as an opportunity rather than a reason to panic. It's a good time to accumulate on dips. Live Events Should Investors Continue Their SIPs? Q. Some investors are panicking and considering redeeming mutual fund investments. Should they hold or exit? And what about continuing their SIPs? Chirag Muni: If you're already invested, stay put. Rebalance only if your equity exposure is above 75–80%. If you're between 60–70%, there's little reason to worry. As for SIPs — absolutely continue. SIPs work because of rupee cost averaging . When markets fall, you get more units; when markets rise, fewer. This naturally reduces your average cost per unit. For example, let's say you started an SIP in January investing ₹10,000 monthly. If the NAV fluctuated between ₹9 and ₹13, your average cost would still be favorable compared to investing a lump sum at a peak. Is This a Good Time to Start an SIP? Q. Should new investors start an SIP now or wait for a dip? Chirag Muni: Timing the market is tough. We did a study over the past 25 years, even if someone invested at the peak of each month, they earned ~11.19% returns. Those who invested at monthly lows got ~12.65%, and a disciplined mid-month investor earned ~11.84%. So, the difference isn't significant. If you have investable surplus, start now. Waiting rarely helps in the long run. Why Step-Up SIPs Work Wonders Q. What's your view on step-up SIPs in the current environment? Chirag Muni: Step-up SIPs are incredibly effective and often underutilized. Let's say a 25-year-old starts a ₹5,000 SIP and continues for 35 years — they might build a corpus of ₹3.5 crore. But if they increase the SIP by 10% annually, the corpus could grow to ₹9.4 crore! Even a ₹25,000 SIP can become ₹17.5 crore over 35 years, but with a 10% annual step-up, that corpus can grow to ₹47 crore. So yes, step-up SIPs are a powerful way to grow wealth over time. Does SIP Date Really Matter? Q. Investors often wonder... which date of the month is best for SIPs? Chirag Muni: We looked at 25 years of data and tested SIPs started on every date of the month. The return difference between the best and worst-performing dates was just 0.15%. So, the date doesn't matter. What matters is consistency. Pick a date you're comfortable with and stick to it. SIP vs. Lump Sum: Which Is Better? Q. Do SIPs outperform lump sum investments? Chirag Muni: Yes, especially in volatile markets. In 20 out of 24 calendar years, SIPs offered a better average entry cost than lump sum investing. Over the last 10 years, SIPs outperformed lump sum in 90% of cases. Rupee cost averaging helps navigate volatility effectively — making SIPs the better choice for most retail investors. Ideal Investment Time Frame for New SIP Investors Q. What's an ideal investment horizon for SIPs? Chirag Muni: A minimum of 3–4 years is essential. Over three years, 90% of SIPs deliver positive returns. If you hold for five years, the probability of 10%+ returns goes up to 85%. For 15 years, it becomes 95%. Also, even if the first year shows negative returns, holding on for three more years often delivers 11–12% CAGR. So patience and discipline are key. Is It Time to Review and Rebalance SIPs? Q. Given current domestic and global uncertainty, should investors review or rebalance their SIPs? Chirag Muni: Absolutely. While SIPs are automated, reviewing your portfolio annually is important. Evaluate scheme performance, asset allocation, and market cap exposure. If a scheme underperforms for a long time or your allocation becomes skewed, consider rebalancing. Regular monitoring is essential for long-term success. Large, Mid, or Small Cap: What Works Best? Q. Where should SIP investors focus: large, mid, or smallcap funds? Chirag Muni: Largecaps are less volatile, but mid and smallcaps offer higher return potential over longer horizons. From 2014 to 2024: Largecap (Nifty 100): Avg return ~12.6% Midcap: Avg return ~16.8% Smallcap: Avg return ~14% If you have a 5+ year horizon, a higher allocation to mid and smallcaps can make sense. Diversify across market caps for balanced growth. Ideal Market Cap Allocation Today Q. What's a good market cap allocation mix for current conditions? Chirag Muni: Right now, a balanced allocation could be: Largecap: 55% Midcap: 22–23% Smallcap: ~20% This mix offers relative stability with growth potential. ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Economic Times
02-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Should you keep investing? Here's what market data says
In this insightful conversation, ET Markets' Neha Vashishth speaks with Chirag Muni, Executive Director at Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, about why Indian markets continue to remain strong despite global uncertainties. From macroeconomic stability to market valuations and smart fund strategies, Chirag breaks down what investors need to know in 2025, and how to position their portfolios for long-term growth. Excerpts: ADVERTISEMENT Q. Let's begin with the current sentiment in Indian markets. Despite global uncertainties, Indian equities continue to show resilience. What are the key factors driving this strength? Chirag Muni: The Indian market's strength lies in its robust macroeconomic foundation. In the short term, markets may react to sentiment, but over the long run, they're driven by economic fundamentals, and here, India stands out. We closed last year with a GDP growth of 6.5%, and for this year we're expecting around 6.6%. That keeps India among the fastest-growing major economies globally. Inflation has also cooled—CPI dropped to 2.82% in May from 3.16% in April, giving the RBI room to cut rates by nearly 100 basis points this year. That's good news for corporate margins and consumption. Fiscal data is equally strong. The fiscal deficit has been revised to 4.8%, and the RBI's ₹2.7 lakh crore dividend to the government helps strengthen our balance sheet further. GST collections in May crossed ₹2 lakh crore, a 16.5% YoY rise, and direct tax collections have gone up 14.5% in the first two months. All indicators are pointing toward solid economic momentum. Q. That sounds like a strong foundation. How are Indian market valuations positioned right now? Chirag: We're fairly valued with room for upside. The Nifty currently trades around 25,000. Historically, the one-year forward average PE has been around 20x. Even conservatively assuming 20–20.5x on forward EPS, Nifty should be close to 26,000. So we're looking at a 4–5% 'valuation gap' or negative froth—both in largecap and midcap spaces. Our one-year return estimate for Nifty is 11–13%, in line with nominal GDP. Midcaps and large & midcaps could deliver 18–20%. ADVERTISEMENT Q. Given these fundamentals, how should investors position their portfolios right now? Chirag: This is a great time to stay disciplined and invest with a long-term view. Maintain 70–80% equity allocation if your horizon is 4–5 years. ADVERTISEMENT Keep 20–30% in debt for your SIPs—don't let short-term noise distract you. ADVERTISEMENT Diversify:50–55% in largecaps, ADVERTISEMENT Balance between mid and remains the best-performing asset class over the long term. Stick to your asset allocation and review it regularly. Q. Could you suggest specific mutual funds for those looking to invest across categories? Chirag: Absolutely. Here's a diversified mix that has historically delivered strong risk-adjusted returns: Multicap: Canara Robeco Multicap FundFlexicap: HDFC Flexicap FundLarge & Midcap: SBI Large & Midcap FundMidcap: Kotak Emerging Equity FundSmallcap: Invesco Smallcap FundThese funds offer good diversification and can be bundled into a balanced, long-term Please note that these are not recommendations. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
23-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
International mutual funds offer 14% average return in 1 year. Are global markets the new hotspot?
International mutual funds have delivered an average return of 14.5% over the past year, ranking second among all fund categories. Market experts attribute this performance to a strong rally in U.S. tech stocks, a rebound in Chinese equities, and improved investor sentiment across European markets. 'A softer dollar, easing inflation, and a global shift toward rate cuts—already initiated by some central banks—have supported risk assets. While some volatility may persist, the broader orientation is supportive, making this a good time to start SIPs/STPs rather than wait for a better entry,' Sagar Shinde, VP of Research at Fisdom, shared with ETMutualFunds. Also Read | Explained: How thoughtful asset allocation enhances mutual fund performance? Best MF to invest Looking for the best mutual funds to invest? Here are our recommendations. View Details » Another expert, comparing the returns of international mutual funds with the Nifty50 over the past year and month, noted that these returns are significantly influenced by global geopolitical events, such as Trump-era tariffs, speculation around the upcoming U.S. elections, and shifting trade agreements, making international funds more event-driven and volatile. 'Over the long term, Indian markets are much more consistent compared to international funds, which shows that domestic funds have higher return potential with a wide range of categories to pick from,' Chirag Muni, Executive Director, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, shared with ETMutualFunds. Live Events According to Chirag, if we look at the long-term risk adjusted returns of global markets, the U.S. and Indian markets have shown better efficiency compared to China, Hong Kong and Japan and in recent months, international markets have seen sharp, event-driven rallies like China's stimulus-led surge or U.S. trade-related volatility, but these are often short-lived. There were 66 international funds which have marked their presence in the last year, and out of these, 44 gave double-digit returns, 21 gave single-digit returns, and one gave a negative return. DSP World Gold FoF offered the highest return of 70.47% in the same period. Mirae Asset Hang Seng TECH ETF FoF and Mirae Asset NYSE FANG+ETF FoF gave 52.06% and 41.06% returns, respectively, in the said period. PGIM India Global Equity Opp FoF gave the lowest single-digit return of around 0.07% in the mentioned period. Mirae Asset Global Electric & Autonomous Vehicles Equity Passive FOF lost 1.70% in the same period. After reviewing the performance of international funds, Shinde suggests a 10–15% allocation for optimal diversification. He recommends keeping the U.S. as the core exposure, citing its innovation and strong earnings, while viewing China as a tactical or contrarian bet due to its low valuations and recent policy support. Also Read | Up 29% in 5 months! Should you invest or avoid gold mutual funds? 'These funds are best used for long-term allocation (5+ years). SIPs/STPs are more prudent in the current environment, helping average out market and currency volatility better than lump sum investing,' he adds. While refraining investors from investing in international funds and advising to shift focus on a well-diversified mix of domestic equity funds across categories and sectors, Chirag adds that if one looks for global diversification in the portfolio can explore only up to 5 -10% of the overall portfolio. 'International funds can offer exposure to global opportunities, but given its track record for volatility and uneven performance across global markets, investors are advised not to rely heavily on them. It is more suitable to do an SIP in diversified domestic equity funds over the long term, as they provide stronger long-term growth and better risk-adjusted returns. Trying to time global markets or chase short-term rallies is not advisable, as such moves are often driven by unpredictable events and can lead to poor investment outcomes,' Chirag said. Over the last three months, international funds have delivered an average return of 5.61%, and 8.58% over the past six months. DSP World Gold FoF topped the charts across both timeframes. Over the past three years, the best-performing economies included the US, Taiwan, and Nasdaq , while Greater China and some US-focused funds lagged during the same period. Post these funds offering single-digit average return in the short-term, Shinde mentions that the outlook for international funds remains constructive but nuanced and as several central banks—especially in Europe and emerging markets—have already begun their rate-cutting cycles, which supports global liquidity and risk assets. 'At the same time, global equities benefit from resilient growth, improving earnings, and attractive valuations outside the US. However, headwinds like rising trade tensions, tariffs, and geopolitical risks could cause intermittent volatility. Overall, international funds remain a valuable long-term diversification tool, with opportunities across the US, China, and selective global themes,' Shinde adds. While sharing India's strong economic outlook, IMF projections, RBI rate cut, and with a stable fiscal deficit projected at 4.4% for FY26 and strong tax revenues, macro fundamentals remain solid, Chirag advises investors not to go for international funds. Also Read | 14 equity mutual funds offer over 30% CAGR in 3 years. Are there any included in your portfolio? International funds invest across a range of geographies, commodities, and global indices. Markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, the broader US economy, and Taiwan delivered strong performance, while regions such as Hang Seng and Greater China underperformed. Ultimately, a fund's returns hinge on the specific geography it's exposed to. That means you should pay extra attention to your investments in international funds. Pay extra attention to which geography or indices you are investing in. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@ alongwith your age, risk profile, and twitter handle.
Economic Times
23-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
International mutual funds offer 14% average return in 1 year. Are global markets the new hotspot?
International funds invest across a range of geographies, commodities, and global indices. International mutual funds have delivered an average return of 14.5% over the past year, ranking second among all fund categories. Market experts attribute this performance to a strong rally in U.S. tech stocks, a rebound in Chinese equities, and improved investor sentiment across European markets. 'A softer dollar, easing inflation, and a global shift toward rate cuts—already initiated by some central banks—have supported risk assets. While some volatility may persist, the broader orientation is supportive, making this a good time to start SIPs/STPs rather than wait for a better entry,' Sagar Shinde, VP of Research at Fisdom, shared with ETMutualFunds. Also Read | Explained: How thoughtful asset allocation enhances mutual fund performance? Another expert, comparing the returns of international mutual funds with the Nifty50 over the past year and month, noted that these returns are significantly influenced by global geopolitical events, such as Trump-era tariffs, speculation around the upcoming U.S. elections, and shifting trade agreements, making international funds more event-driven and volatile.'Over the long term, Indian markets are much more consistent compared to international funds, which shows that domestic funds have higher return potential with a wide range of categories to pick from,' Chirag Muni, Executive Director, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, shared with ETMutualFunds. According to Chirag, if we look at the long-term risk adjusted returns of global markets, the U.S. and Indian markets have shown better efficiency compared to China, Hong Kong and Japan and in recent months, international markets have seen sharp, event-driven rallies like China's stimulus-led surge or U.S. trade-related volatility, but these are often were 66 international funds which have marked their presence in the last year, and out of these, 44 gave double-digit returns, 21 gave single-digit returns, and one gave a negative return. DSP World Gold FoF offered the highest return of 70.47% in the same period. Mirae Asset Hang Seng TECH ETF FoF and Mirae Asset NYSE FANG+ETF FoF gave 52.06% and 41.06% returns, respectively, in the said period. PGIM India Global Equity Opp FoF gave the lowest single-digit return of around 0.07% in the mentioned period. Mirae Asset Global Electric & Autonomous Vehicles Equity Passive FOF lost 1.70% in the same reviewing the performance of international funds, Shinde suggests a 10–15% allocation for optimal diversification. He recommends keeping the U.S. as the core exposure, citing its innovation and strong earnings, while viewing China as a tactical or contrarian bet due to its low valuations and recent policy support. Also Read | Up 29% in 5 months! Should you invest or avoid gold mutual funds? 'These funds are best used for long-term allocation (5+ years). SIPs/STPs are more prudent in the current environment, helping average out market and currency volatility better than lump sum investing,' he refraining investors from investing in international funds and advising to shift focus on a well-diversified mix of domestic equity funds across categories and sectors, Chirag adds that if one looks for global diversification in the portfolio can explore only up to 5 -10% of the overall portfolio.'International funds can offer exposure to global opportunities, but given its track record for volatility and uneven performance across global markets, investors are advised not to rely heavily on them. It is more suitable to do an SIP in diversified domestic equity funds over the long term, as they provide stronger long-term growth and better risk-adjusted returns. Trying to time global markets or chase short-term rallies is not advisable, as such moves are often driven by unpredictable events and can lead to poor investment outcomes,' Chirag the last three months, international funds have delivered an average return of 5.61%, and 8.58% over the past six months. DSP World Gold FoF topped the charts across both timeframes. Over the past three years, the best-performing economies included the US, Taiwan, and Nasdaq, while Greater China and some US-focused funds lagged during the same period. Post these funds offering single-digit average return in the short-term, Shinde mentions that the outlook for international funds remains constructive but nuanced and as several central banks—especially in Europe and emerging markets—have already begun their rate-cutting cycles, which supports global liquidity and risk assets. 'At the same time, global equities benefit from resilient growth, improving earnings, and attractive valuations outside the US. However, headwinds like rising trade tensions, tariffs, and geopolitical risks could cause intermittent volatility. Overall, international funds remain a valuable long-term diversification tool, with opportunities across the US, China, and selective global themes,' Shinde sharing India's strong economic outlook, IMF projections, RBI rate cut, and with a stable fiscal deficit projected at 4.4% for FY26 and strong tax revenues, macro fundamentals remain solid, Chirag advises investors not to go for international funds. Also Read | 14 equity mutual funds offer over 30% CAGR in 3 years. Are there any included in your portfolio? International funds invest across a range of geographies, commodities, and global indices. Markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, the broader US economy, and Taiwan delivered strong performance, while regions such as Hang Seng and Greater China underperformed. Ultimately, a fund's returns hinge on the specific geography it's exposed means you should pay extra attention to your investments in international funds. Pay extra attention to which geography or indices you are investing in. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@ alongwith your age, risk profile, and twitter handle.
