21-03-2025
How to watch Mississippi State vs. Baylor: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup
Mississippi State is one of 14 teams from the SEC to make the NCAA Tournament, looking for its first win in the tourney since 2008. Baylor, four years removed from its first national title, is looking for its 20th win, which would mark the seventh straight season of reaching that milestone.
We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice.
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Strengths: Chris Jans' junkyard dogs possess considerable size. They're 6-foot-4 or taller at shooting guard, on the wing and across the frontline. It's no shock they're one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the field, generating a second chance on 34.4 percent of their possessions. Stretch Armstrongs RJ Melendez and KeShawn Murphy also steadily rack shots within 15 feet. Both are major reasons why MSU ranks top-80 nationally in 2-point percentage offense. Generally in control due to the crafty handles of Josh Hubbard, the Bulldogs commit few turnovers. Conversely, they coax numerous mistakes, as evidenced by their No. 81 slotting in defensive turnover rate in the regular season.
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Weaknesses: The defensive inadequacies are alarming and apparent. MSU has a tendency to overcommit, leading to frequent open opponent 3-pointers. Over the last month of the regular season, competitors shot a blistering 38.5 percent from distance against them. Only subpar at challenging hoists inside the arc, the Bulldogs ranked an abhorrent No. 344 in effective field goal percentage in their last 10 games. On the opposite end, their perimeter execution was equally ineffective, ranking No. 330 in 3-point percentage offense. Their lack of conversions at the charity stripe are also inexcusable. State entered the postseason No. 255 in free-throw percentage. Spoiled opportunities in close games are likely to lead to its demise.
Outlook: Roll the dice on the representatives from StarkVegas, and your chip stacks could immediately disappear. Yes, Hubbard is a scoring machine who can leave opposing coaches vexed. His dishing and scoring wizardry are well documented. However, the Bulldogs' gashable defense is an unignorable weakness. Save that Milkbone for a more deserving dog. Mississippi State last reached the Round of 32 in 2008. It's doubtful the streak of futility ends.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Elite one-and-done talent has been a theme for Scott Drew over the past few years, and this season is no exception. Baylor has one of the nation's best NBA prospects in projected top-10 pick VJ Edgecombe, a 6-foot-5 freshman who is a walking highlight reel. The Bears are also one of the best offensive-rebounding teams, grabbing 36 percent of their misses to rank top-30 nationally. Their team speed stands out when you watch them play. They have athletes all over the floor capable of taking defenders off the dribble when they deploy 6-7 Norchad Omier at the five in small lineups. Another strength is Drew. He's one of six active coaches with a national title on his resume.
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Weaknesses: Baylor lacks size, making it difficult to play consistently good defense. Only one player from its top eight — 6-10 Josh Ojianwuna — is taller than 6-7, and the team's average height of 77 inches ranks 211th in the country. That puts a lot of pressure on the guards to limit paint touches. The Bears are top-20 in offensive efficiency but just top-60 in defensive efficiency, making for a less-than-ideal blueprint for March Madness success. They also rank below 190th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage defense. To make a run, they'll have to correct some of their defensive inefficiencies.
Outlook: When playing a team capable of filling it up, Baylor struggles. All but two of its losses (Tennessee and TCU) have come against teams in the top 25 of KenPom's offensive efficiency metric. This team can score, but when that ability is matched, the Bears tend to falter. That could make them an easy out before the second weekend.
—Sam Lance
This matchup can also be streamed on the NCAA March Madness Live app and Paramount+.
Streaming and Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Josh Hubbard: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
