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Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Markets stall after ADP releases dismal jobs report; dollar continues slide with another 0.4% drop
The S&P 500 and the Jones barely moved on Wednesday. Meanwhile the Nasdaq finished positive, up 0.4% for the session. The major economic news of the day was the release of ADP's private sector employment report that saw the U.S. economy add only 37,000 jobs in May. The May private sector jobs report cast a shadow on Wednesday's market moves. Or better yet—the lack thereof. Before the market opened, ADP released its monthly analysis of the state of the U.S. labor market. In the month of May, the U.S. only added 37,000 jobs. Such a low number spurred fears the ongoing trade war may finally be starting to affect the economy's hard data. The May report was far below analysts expectations which had forecasted around 110,000 jobs and April's number which had been revised down to 60,000. The pace of hiring was the lowest level seen since March 2023, ADP reported. That said, any impact the jobs report had on the stock market was muted. The S&P 500 finished rose slightly, closing up 0.01%. The Nasdaq Composite had a slightly better session, closing at a respectable 0.32%. Meanwhile the Dow Jones was the only of major indices to close negative on Wednesday. At market close finished 0.22% lower. Throughout the day there was some garden variety intraday choppiness, but nothing that would have alarmed investors that weren't day traders. Whether ADP's May jobs numbers were an expected hiccup after weeks of turbulence or the start of a much broader, more sustained slide will be the key question going forward. A big part of that answer could come on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly report of nonfarm payroll numbers. 'Today's downside surprise could raise more eyebrows than usual,' wrote E*Trade managing director of trading and investing Chris Larkin in a note. 'Some tariff-related slowdown in the labor market is expected, the question is how significant it will be, and how the markets will respond. This month could begin to provide some answers.' Elsewhere in the market, other Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar fell. The marquee cryptocurrency and the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3% and 0.4% respectively on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar in particular continued its weeks-long slide. Much of the greenback's decline can be attributed to an erosion in investor confidence since the U.S. implemented tariffs on almost all of its trade partners. The subsequent fits and starts of President Donald Trump's tariff policy, in which he paused and unpaused them regularly, only added to the confusion for investors. Since the start of the year, the U.S. dollar has declined 9%. The outlook for the rest of the year didn't see much of a change in trajectory. Across Wall Street, the number of investors taking up bear positions against the dollar have grown. They show no sign of slowing up based on the currency's current path. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
5 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
ADP payrolls report could be providing a warning about the weakening labor market
ADP's private payrolls report for May painted a pretty dour picture of the labor market as the first half of 2025 nears a close. How much that will be mirrored in Friday's official nonfarm payrolls tally, though, is anybody's guess. Unfortunately, ADP usually offers little predictive power for any individual month's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the two track surprisingly close over longer periods of time, in the near term there's virtually no correlation. Still, the May report from the payrolls processing firm showing just 37,000 net new hires jibes with other weakening labor market indicators that seem like a warning sign for a potential downside surprise from the BLS. "As we saw a month ago, the ADP payrolls number isn't always a reliable predictor of the government's monthly jobs data, but in the current environment, today's downside surprise could raise more eyebrows than usual," said Chris Larkin, head of trading and investing for E-Trade Morgan Stanley. Indeed, the respective April indicators for private payroll growth showed a wide disparity — 60,000 from ADP, 167,000 from BLS. That was the third consecutive month that the firm undershot the BLS figure. The trend, though, has been in the other direction. Over the past year, ADP has shown stronger growth than the BLS — 150,000 to 130,000. Further, the typical difference is less than one standard deviation, indicating that at least over the longer term, the two tallies tend to converge. There could, then, be at least a few lessons to learn from ADP heading into the big number Friday. The report found that businesses with fewer than 50 employees reported a loss of 13,000. Such apprehension to hire is consistent with fears from small companies that import a lot of their goods that they will be hurt by President Donald Trump's tariffs . Small-cap stocks also have reflected such worries, with the Russell 2000 down nearly 6% year to date. .RUT YTD line Russell 2000 YTD "Just put yourself in the shoes of an employer and we can understand the hesitancy that so many business people have, especially small businesses that just don't have the flexibility that larger companies have to adjust, nor the finances," wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. Economists, though, are unlikely to adjust the consensus estimate for 125,000 nonfarm payroll growth in the BLS report. Few Wall Street shops even offer written commentary after the ADP release, in contrast to its counterpart that draws opinions from virtually everyone. ADP does have a few fans. "ADP's measure of private job growth is different from the official report that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish on Friday," wrote Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica. "But since ADP has real-time payroll data for over 25 million private workers, it's a good preview of the official numbers."
Time of India
20-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Asian stocks advance after rebound on Wall Street
Asian shares rose for the first time in four days, mirroring gains in the US that placed the S&P 500 index on the brink of a bull market. A regional stock gauge gained 0.4% with advances in Australia, Japan and South Korea after the S&P 500 index climbed for a sixth straight day. Treasuries were steady at the open in Asia after whipsawing on Monday with the downgrading of US debt. The dollar edged higher along with US equity-index futures. Gold dipped 0.2% after gaining in the prior session. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Ingin Tahu Tentang Diagnosis Limfoma? Dapatkan Info Selengkapnya Limfoma Baca Undo Stocks in Europe and the US shrugged off the downgrade of US credit ratings after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed concerns, saying the government is determined to lower spending and boost the economy. Investors in Asia are also staying focused on the outcome of US trade negotiations with India and Japan after talks with China on lowering tariffs boosted optimism. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. 'The search for fresh market catalysts begins,' said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. 'The S&P 500 ended last week up for the year, and just a little more than 3% below its all-time high. Whether it closes that gap in the near future is one thing, sustaining a rally past it is another.' Meanwhile, China's government accused the Trump administration of undermining recent trade talks in Geneva with its warning that using Huawei Technologies Co.'s artificial-intelligence chips 'anywhere in the world' would violate US export controls. The Asian nation's Commerce Ministry demanded in the statement that the US 'correct its mistakes.' Live Events India is discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches and expects to reach an interim agreement before July, when President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in, according to officials in New Delhi familiar with the matter. In Australia, investors will focus on comments from the central bank later Tuesday on the roadmap for the economy as the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide on interest rates. Economists and money markets expect the RBA to announce a quarter percentage-point cut to bring its cash rate a two-year low of 3.85%. Still, they reckon Governor Michele Bullock may be reluctant to suggest further easing to come when she appears before journalists later Tuesday. In corporate news, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. will start trading in Hong Kong Tuesday after the Chinese battery giant wrapped up the world's biggest listing this year, raising HK$35.7 billion ($4.6 billion) despite being blacklisted by the Pentagon and grinding through geopolitical storms. Back in the US, several strategists said any pullback may be a buying opportunity. Thomas Lee at Fundstrat Global Advisors sees the Moody's downgrade as a 'largely non-event,' while adding that in case of any stock weakness, he would be 'buying this dip aggressively.' Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist David Kostin expects the 'Magnificent Seven' group of technology stocks to resume outperforming the broader S&P 500 on robust earnings trends. Separately, two Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed chief John Williams, suggested policymakers may not be ready to lower interest rates before September as they confront a murky economic outlook. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also emphasized a wait-and-see approach at the Atlanta Fed's 2025 Financial Markets Conference Monday. He said it's important for the Fed to make sure any potential increase in prices doesn't evolve into a sustained rise in inflation. Investors now see less than a 10% chance of a rate cut when policymakers next meet June 17-18 in Washington. Based on pricing in fed funds futures, investors expect two quarter-point reductions by year's end, down from the four seen at the end of April. In commodities, oil was steady after a two-day gain with upcoming talks between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the US and Iran in focus.
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street's Calm Shatters: Trade War and Earnings Fears Slam Stocks
Wall Street's winning streak hit a wall Monday as investors turned cautious ahead of a heavy week packed with earnings reports and key economic updates. The S&P 500 (SPY) slipped 0.82%, ending a four-day run, while the Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) fell 1.25% at 12.14pm today, weighed down by weakness across major tech names. With Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) set to report, and fresh data on jobs and inflation on deck, markets are bracing for more clarity on how deeply the tariff standoff under President Donald Trump is cutting into corporate performance. Bond yields were largely steady, and the dollar edged lower, reflecting a tentative mood across assets. Despite last week's rally, market strategists see little evidence that volatility is behind us. Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley highlighted that equities may remain rangebound until investors get a clearer read on earnings impacts from tariffs, which remain difficult to gauge. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed U.S.-China trade talks are ongoing but stressed the next move must come from Beijing. International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) added to the corporate headlines, announcing a $150 billion investment plan across the U.S. over the next five years, in a move aligned with broader economic shifts post-election. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson pointed out that while a weaker dollar could help U.S. earnings outperform globally, a material move higher for the S&P 500 would likely require a trade breakthrough, a solid recovery in earnings estimates, and a softer monetary backdrop. JPMorgan strategists echoed that view, advising investors to sell into rallies unless broader trade deals materialize. With the S&P 500 projected to trade between 5,000 and 5,800 points, the next few weeks could set the tone for whether markets stay stuck in a holding patternor find fresh momentum to break higher. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
28-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street's Calm Shatters: Trade War and Earnings Fears Slam Stocks
Wall Street's winning streak hit a wall Monday as investors turned cautious ahead of a heavy week packed with earnings reports and key economic updates. The S&P 500 (SPY) slipped 0.82%, ending a four-day run, while the Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) fell 1.25% at 12.14pm today, weighed down by weakness across major tech names. With Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) set to report, and fresh data on jobs and inflation on deck, markets are bracing for more clarity on how deeply the tariff standoff under President Donald Trump is cutting into corporate performance. Bond yields were largely steady, and the dollar edged lower, reflecting a tentative mood across assets. Despite last week's rally, market strategists see little evidence that volatility is behind us. Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley highlighted that equities may remain rangebound until investors get a clearer read on earnings impacts from tariffs, which remain difficult to gauge. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed U.S.-China trade talks are ongoing but stressed the next move must come from Beijing. International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) added to the corporate headlines, announcing a $150 billion investment plan across the U.S. over the next five years, in a move aligned with broader economic shifts post-election. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson pointed out that while a weaker dollar could help U.S. earnings outperform globally, a material move higher for the S&P 500 would likely require a trade breakthrough, a solid recovery in earnings estimates, and a softer monetary backdrop. JPMorgan strategists echoed that view, advising investors to sell into rallies unless broader trade deals materialize. With the S&P 500 projected to trade between 5,000 and 5,800 points, the next few weeks could set the tone for whether markets stay stuck in a holding patternor find fresh momentum to break higher. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
