Latest news with #ChrisMotola
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
I'm an Economist: The No. 1 Economic Indicator I Rely On
Economists use a variety of tools and data to predict how well or poorly the economy will do in the near-term. Experts can analyze figures like the gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rates, inflation, commodity prices and interest rates, according to a fact sheet published on the Library of Congress website. Explore More: For You: But what's the number one indicator economists rely on to forecast the country's financial future? Economists we spoke with agreed that GDP is one of the most important factors — but it may not tell the whole story. The Relevance of GDP 'GDP growth or decline would probably be the standard answer,' said Chris Motola, financial analyst at '[While] it's certainly not the worst [indicator] to use, it can fail to capture what's being experienced on the ground.' Stephan Shipe, Ph.D., CFA, CFP®, a finance professor at Wake Forest University and founder of Scholar Financial Advising, agreed. 'When people ask me for the top economic indicators, the standard trio is GDP, unemployment and inflation,' he said. 'But I don't think any one of those tells the full story in today's environment.' The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow tool estimated real GDP growth at 2.4% in the second quarter of 2025, which would indicate healthy growth. 'For the United States, a healthy growth rate is around 2%,' said Michael Snipes, associate professor of instruction, Economics at University of South Florida. However, he cautioned that faster growth could be a problem. 'It is possible for economies to grow too quickly,' he said. Shipe noted that GDP can also be artificially inflated by government spending. 'A country can show growth on paper, even if it's just racking up debt,' he said. I'm an Economist: Other Economic Indicators Shipe said he's more inclined to rely on inflation rates, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as a key economic indicator. 'Prices don't lie. If costs are rising, you have to explain why,' he said. 'It's a market-driven signal that cuts through a lot of noise.' Motola said the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) would be his top choice for economic forecasting if he had to choose just one indicator. 'The LEI […] is a composite index that tracks 10 factors to check the temperature of the economy,' he explained. The LEI went down by 0.1% in May, after falling by 1.4% in April, according to a press release published by The Conference Board. Is the US Headed Toward a Recession? Motola and Shipe both said they don't see a recession on the horizon, although Motola said the falling LEI 'suggests a somewhat gloomy forecast for the economy.' 'The more pressing concern is long-term solvency, and how persistent inflation could pressure debt and entitlement systems down the road,' Shipe noted. More From GOBankingRates These Cars May Seem Expensive, but They Rarely Need Repairs This article originally appeared on I'm an Economist: The No. 1 Economic Indicator I Rely On Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
I'm an Economist: The No. 1 Economic Indicator I Rely On
Economists use a variety of tools and data to predict how well or poorly the economy will do in the near-term. Experts can analyze figures like the gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rates, inflation, commodity prices and interest rates, according to a fact sheet published on the Library of Congress website. Explore More: For You: But what's the number one indicator economists rely on to forecast the country's financial future? Economists we spoke with agreed that GDP is one of the most important factors — but it may not tell the whole story. The Relevance of GDP 'GDP growth or decline would probably be the standard answer,' said Chris Motola, financial analyst at '[While] it's certainly not the worst [indicator] to use, it can fail to capture what's being experienced on the ground.' Stephan Shipe, Ph.D., CFA, CFP®, a finance professor at Wake Forest University and founder of Scholar Financial Advising, agreed. 'When people ask me for the top economic indicators, the standard trio is GDP, unemployment and inflation,' he said. 'But I don't think any one of those tells the full story in today's environment.' The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow tool estimated real GDP growth at 2.4% in the second quarter of 2025, which would indicate healthy growth. 'For the United States, a healthy growth rate is around 2%,' said Michael Snipes, associate professor of instruction, Economics at University of South Florida. However, he cautioned that faster growth could be a problem. 'It is possible for economies to grow too quickly,' he said. Shipe noted that GDP can also be artificially inflated by government spending. 'A country can show growth on paper, even if it's just racking up debt,' he said. I'm an Economist: Other Economic Indicators Shipe said he's more inclined to rely on inflation rates, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as a key economic indicator. 'Prices don't lie. If costs are rising, you have to explain why,' he said. 'It's a market-driven signal that cuts through a lot of noise.' Motola said the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) would be his top choice for economic forecasting if he had to choose just one indicator. 'The LEI […] is a composite index that tracks 10 factors to check the temperature of the economy,' he explained. The LEI went down by 0.1% in May, after falling by 1.4% in April, according to a press release published by The Conference Board. Is the US Headed Toward a Recession? Motola and Shipe both said they don't see a recession on the horizon, although Motola said the falling LEI 'suggests a somewhat gloomy forecast for the economy.' 'The more pressing concern is long-term solvency, and how persistent inflation could pressure debt and entitlement systems down the road,' Shipe noted. More From GOBankingRates 5 Cities You Need To Consider If You're Retiring in 2025 This article originally appeared on I'm an Economist: The No. 1 Economic Indicator I Rely On Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
I'm an Economist: The No. 1 Economic Indicator I Rely On
Economists use a variety of tools and data to predict how well or poorly the economy will do in the near-term. Experts can analyze figures like the gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rates, inflation, commodity prices and interest rates, according to a fact sheet published on the Library of Congress website. Explore More: For You: But what's the number one indicator economists rely on to forecast the country's financial future? Economists we spoke with agreed that GDP is one of the most important factors — but it may not tell the whole story. The Relevance of GDP 'GDP growth or decline would probably be the standard answer,' said Chris Motola, financial analyst at '[While] it's certainly not the worst [indicator] to use, it can fail to capture what's being experienced on the ground.' Stephan Shipe, Ph.D., CFA, CFP®, a finance professor at Wake Forest University and founder of Scholar Financial Advising, agreed. 'When people ask me for the top economic indicators, the standard trio is GDP, unemployment and inflation,' he said. 'But I don't think any one of those tells the full story in today's environment.' The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow tool estimated real GDP growth at 2.4% in the second quarter of 2025, which would indicate healthy growth. 'For the United States, a healthy growth rate is around 2%,' said Michael Snipes, associate professor of instruction, Economics at University of South Florida. However, he cautioned that faster growth could be a problem. 'It is possible for economies to grow too quickly,' he said. Shipe noted that GDP can also be artificially inflated by government spending. 'A country can show growth on paper, even if it's just racking up debt,' he said. I'm an Economist: Other Economic Indicators Shipe said he's more inclined to rely on inflation rates, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as a key economic indicator. 'Prices don't lie. If costs are rising, you have to explain why,' he said. 'It's a market-driven signal that cuts through a lot of noise.' Motola said the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) would be his top choice for economic forecasting if he had to choose just one indicator. 'The LEI […] is a composite index that tracks 10 factors to check the temperature of the economy,' he explained. The LEI went down by 0.1% in May, after falling by 1.4% in April, according to a press release published by The Conference Board. Is the US Headed Toward a Recession? Motola and Shipe both said they don't see a recession on the horizon, although Motola said the falling LEI 'suggests a somewhat gloomy forecast for the economy.' 'The more pressing concern is long-term solvency, and how persistent inflation could pressure debt and entitlement systems down the road,' Shipe noted. More From GOBankingRates These Cars May Seem Expensive, but They Rarely Need Repairs This article originally appeared on I'm an Economist: The No. 1 Economic Indicator I Rely On Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Newsweek
6 days ago
- Business
- Newsweek
Social Security COLA for 2026 and Beyond: What Seniors Want
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. American seniors are frustrated with how Social Security adjusts for inflation, and they want change. A new report from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) shows a clear demand among retirees to improve the way the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is calculated. According to the group's latest survey of 1,92 individuals over the age of 62, 34 percent of respondents identified updating the COLA formula as their top policy priority for enhancing Social Security benefits. And when presented with specific policy options to raise future COLAs, seniors overwhelmingly supported a shift to a more targeted inflation measure. Currently, the Social Security Administration (SSA) calculates COLA based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). This index tracks inflation using the spending habits of younger, urban workers, not retirees. Since 1975, COLAs have been applied annually based on CPI-W data gathered during the third quarter of the year (July through September), with the goal of ensuring benefits rise in line with everyday costs, such as housing, food, and medical care. This year, benefits rose by 2.5 percent. The TSCL, based on current CPI-W readings, expects the 2026 COLA to increase slightly to 2.6 percent. However, regardless of the boost, for many retirees, that formula no longer works. According to the TSCL survey, 68 percent of seniors support replacing the current CPI-W model with the CPI-E, or Consumer Price Index for the Elderly. Developed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI-E is an index that tracks the spending habits of Americans aged 62 and older, focusing on the types of goods and services seniors typically use, such as health care, housing, and prescription drugs. "CPI-E is designed to better reflect the spending habits of people aged 62 and older," Colin Ruggiero, co-founder at told Newsweek. "It gives more weight to health care and housing costs which are two of the fastest-growing expenses for seniors. Switching to CPI-E would make COLAs more relevant and responsive to the real financial pressures seniors face." Chris Motola, a financial analyst at told Newsweek: "The main advantage of CPI-E would be to more heavily weight health care and housing costs in COLA calculations, both of which tend to disproportionately eat into seniors' budgets." Another popular idea is making up for what's already been lost. The TSCL survey found that 57 percent of respondents support a one-time "catch-up" COLA payment to compensate for years when benefits failed to keep pace with actual living costs. Composite image created by Newsweek. Composite image created by Newsweek. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty/Canva "A catch-up COLA would be a recognition that past adjustments haven't kept pace with reality," Ruggiero said. "While it's feasible, it would require congressional approval and carry a hefty budgetary cost. Politically, it could gain traction as a way to restore fairness, especially if framed as a correction rather than a new ongoing expense." Still, the limits of these proposals are clear. While COLA reforms could help stabilize seniors' purchasing power, experts caution that they won't fix everything. "Adjusting the COLA is a great start, but it's not the cure-all," said Ruggiero. "We also need broader reforms to strengthen the entire retirement system, including benefit adequacy, solvency, and support for low-income seniors." Motola agreed: "It would go a long way, but again, a major problem is that Social Security isn't really meant to carry the burden alone. We've made it very difficult for people to save money for retirement, and the loss of pensions has placed enormous stress on the system."
Newsweek
7 days ago
- Business
- Newsweek
Seniors Are Not Happy With Their Social Security Checks
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. American seniors are growing increasingly frustrated with their Social Security benefits, as a new report finds that nearly two-thirds of retirees are dissatisfied with the amount they receive. While the average Social Security check has reached just in excess of $2,000 this year, a survey conducted by The Senior Citizen's League (TSCL) of 1,920 respondents over age 62 shows only 10 percent saying they were satisfied with their amount. Meanwhile, 63 percent reported being dissatisfied, and 27 percent said they were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied. "Rapidly increasing costs are cutting into everyone's budget, including those of seniors," Chris Motola, financial analyst at told Newsweek. "Part of the problem is the near-disappearance of pensions for private sector employees, which means seniors are increasingly reliant on Social Security to fund their retirement expenses." Composite image created by Newsweek. Composite image created by Newsweek. Newsweek Illustration/Canva/Getty That reliance is significant. The report found that nearly 73 percent of seniors depend on Social Security for more than half their income. More than a third—39 percent—rely on it as their sole source of retirement income. Nineteen percent depend on it for at least three-quarters of their income, while 15 percent receive half to three-quarters of their income from the program. Behind this dissatisfaction lies a deeper economic issue. According to TSCL, Social Security benefits have lost about 20 percent of their buying power since 2010 due to cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) that have failed to keep pace with actual inflation—particularly in categories like housing and transportation, where prices have risen more sharply than the overall inflation rate for more than a decade. The COLA is a long-standing feature of Social Security, intended to preserve the purchasing power of benefits by adjusting payments in line with inflation. It is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which tracks spending patterns among working Americans. The Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys price fluctuations for around 80,000 products quarterly and compiles the results into an index. Each year, the COLA is based on the average CPI-W from the third quarter of the current year compared to the same period the previous year. If there's an increase, it is rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent to determine the COLA. For 2025, this formula resulted in a 2.5 percent increase in benefits. However, TSCL argues that these annual adjustments "often fail to keep up with inflation as seniors experience it." "In particular, housing and transportation costs have increased faster than inflation over the last 15 years, which is especially difficult for seniors who rent their homes or live in areas with low walkability," the report reads. Colin Ruggiero, co-founder of which helps Americans with disabilities file their Social Security applications, told Newsweek that "even though the dollar amount of benefits has increased on paper, what those dollars can buy has eroded. "For someone on a fixed income, every dollar counts. When you can't stretch your check as far as you could a decade ago it reinforces the belief that Social Security is falling short of its promise." Many seniors share that belief. According to the report, only 20 percent of retirees feel that inflation has not outpaced the COLA, while 80 percent believe actual inflation in 2024 was higher than the 2.5 percent adjustment. "Given the mismatch in their perceptions of inflation and inflation as reported by the CPI-W, it's unsurprising that seniors are worried about the value of their Social Security checks," TSCL said.
