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The Guardian
4 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
The Shahed blitz: can Russian drone onslaught break Ukraine's resolve?
Night by night, the blitz develops. Russian drones, decoys, cruise and ballistic missiles – increasingly aimed at a single city or location – are being launched in record numbers into Ukraine, straining the country's ability to defend itself and raising questions about how well it can endure another winter of war. One day earlier this month, 728 drones and 13 missiles were launched, mostly at the western city of Lutsk, home to many Ukrainian airfields. Large salvoes now come more frequently: every three to five days, rather than every 10 to 12, and civilian casualties are rising: 232 people were killed in June, the highest monthly level for three years. A 1,000-drone attack is anticipated shortly and last weekend a German army major general, Christian Freuding, predicted that the Kremlin's ambition was to attack Ukraine with '2,000 drones simultaneously'. Production of drones and missiles has improved, as have Russian tactics. Not only are the drones unleashed in larger swarms, with dozens of decoys included, but they are also being flown either much lower or at much higher altitudes, sometimes in a stack to fool the defenders before swooping down steeply to their target. The additional height takes them beyond the range of mobile Ukrainian gunners, whose job has been to shoot them down, relatively cheaply. Analyses of Ukrainian air force data show that more drones are getting through: from close to 5% in March and April to between 15% and 20% in May and June. Russia is also using its Shahed drones more intelligently, analysts say, to open a path for faster and more dangerous cruise and ballistic missiles because the 50kg (110lb) explosive normally carried by a Shahed only does a relatively limited amount of damage. Designed in Iran, the delta-winged Shahed 136s are now made in Russia, where they are known as Geran-2s. At least two factories have been identified, one in Izhevsk, and most notably in Yelabuga, more than 700 miles from Ukraine. The modern-looking assembly line was shown off on Russian television a few days ago, with dozens of distinctive fibreglass and carbon-fibre frames positioned to sinister effect in the background. 'The Shahed problem has been foreseeable for some time. Russia has been asking itself: 'What will be the T-34 of this war?'' said Jack Watling, a military expert with the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, referring to the tank that is considered by some to have helped the Soviets defeat the Nazis in the second world war. Watling said the issue uppermost in the minds of Russian planners was: 'What is the technology that we can invest in that is good and cheap enough and delivers decisive results?' Two of these are Shahed drones and Iskander missiles in which, he said, Russia has invested heavily in trying to deliver a long-term military-industrial victory. In the Russian video of the Yelabuga plant, the narrator says that teenagers as young as 15 are invited to work at the factory, coming from a nearby technical college, such has been the Kremlin's focus on trying to keep costs down. The Russian version of the Shahed 136 is cheap, costing roughly between $50,000 (£37,000) to $100,000 each, according to Samuel Bendett, a drone expert with the Centre for Naval Analyses thinktank. At the same time, component and manufacturing equipment supply for Shaheds has improved. 'China is more directly providing components to Russia,' said Kateryna Stepanenko, from the Institute for the Study of War, probably aided by a direct rail link to China near Yelabuga. 'Integration of Chinese components, where before there was supply from Iran, means the manufacturers now have a lot more available parts,' she said. Sign up to This is Europe The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans – from identity to economics to the environment after newsletter promotion In Ukraine, there is nervousness. Concern about the available air defence has prompted renewed public lobbying from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for US Patriot air defence systems, and a promise from Germany to pay for five more. But Patriots are only cost-effectively used against cruise and ballistic missiles, not Shaheds, because the modern PAC-3 interceptor missiles cost about $4m each. There has been a sustained effort in developing cheap drones to knock out the Shaheds, although details about the counter-drone efforts remain relatively scarce online, partly because the effort is concealed by operational security. A prominent Ukrainian fundraiser, Serhii Sternenko, said a fortnight ago that more than 100 air targets had been shot down as part of his foundation's 'Shahedoriz' project. That suggests modest progress. Watling argues the problem at the moment is that 'the technology exists but they have not scaled production of them yet'. That may be solved by a partnership announced by Zelenskyy with Google's former CEO Eric Schmidt earlier this month to produce 'interceptor drones', though again details are scant. At the same time, in the last month Ukrainian officials have been trying to restart efforts to lobby European powers to police the skies over the west of the country. One initiative, Sky Shield, proposed in March, suggested that 120 fighter jets could effectively engage in defensive air policing west of the Dnipro River – but this idea was only deemed practical after a ceasefire that Russia has refused to agree to. Though air policing has formed part of plans for a post-conflict 'reassurance force' led by the UK and France, there has so far been no appetite for western nations to step forward and protect Ukrainian airspace for fears it would lead to a direct conflict between a Nato country and Russia. 'It's so frustrating: countries send people to fight in Afghanistan for how long to defend from what – but nobody wants to help Ukraine better defend its skies,' said one source involved in the renewed effort. While there is not much confidence in diplomacy, the balance in the battle of the skies has tipped towards Russia. That could become more ominous if, in the coming weeks, Moscow makes a determined effort to target Ukraine's electricity grid and utility networks before winter. For now, the heightened level of missile and drone attacks demonstrates that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, 'remains committed to his goals to have Ukraine surrender and capitulate', said Stepanenko. 'This war is certainly not a stalemate.'
The Guardian
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Russia launches record attacks on Ukraine as country struggles to defend itself
Night by night, the blitz develops. Russian drones, decoys, cruise and ballistic missiles – increasingly aimed at a single city or location – are being launched in record numbers into Ukraine, straining the country's ability to defend itself and raising questions about how well it can endure another winter of war. One day earlier this month, 728 drones and 13 missiles were launched, mostly at the western city of Lutsk, home to many Ukrainian airfields. Large salvoes now come more frequently: every three to five days, rather than every 10 to 12, and civilian casualties are rising: 232 people were killed in June, the highest monthly level for three years. A 1,000-drone attack is anticipated shortly and last weekend a German army major general, Christian Freuding, predicted that the Kremlin's ambition was to attack Ukraine with '2,000 drones simultaneously'. Production of drones and missiles has improved, as have Russian tactics. Not only are the drones unleashed in larger swarms, with dozens of decoys included, but they are also being flown either much lower or at much higher altitudes, sometimes in a stack to fool the defenders before swooping down steeply to their target. The additional height takes them beyond the range of mobile Ukrainian gunners, whose job has been to shoot them down, relatively cheaply. Analyses of Ukrainian air force data show that more drones are getting through: from close to 5% in March and April to between 15% and 20% in May and June. Russia is also using its Shahed drones more intelligently, analysts say, to open a path for faster and more dangerous cruise and ballistic missiles because the 50kg (110lb) explosive normally carried by a Shahed only does a relatively limited amount of damage. Designed in Iran, the delta-winged Shahed 136, or the Russian Geran-2s, are now made in Russia. At least two factories have been identified, one in Izhevsk, and most notably in Yelabuga, more than 700 miles from Ukraine. The modern-looking assembly line was shown off on Russian television a few days ago, with dozens of distinctive fibreglass and carbon-fibre frames positioned to sinister effect in the background. 'The Shahed problem has been foreseeable for some time. Russia has been asking itself: 'What will be the T-34 of this war?'' said Jack Watling, a military expert with the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, referring to the tank that is considered by some to have helped the Soviets defeat the Nazis in the second world war. Watling said the issue uppermost in the minds of Russian planners was: 'What is the technology that we can invest in that is good and cheap enough and delivers decisive results?' Two of these are Shahed drones and Iskander missiles in which, he said, Russia has invested heavily in trying to deliver a long-term military-industrial victory. In the Russian video of the Yelabuga plant, the narrator says that teenagers as young as 15 are invited to work at the factory, coming from a nearby technical college, such has been the Kremlin's focus on trying to keep costs down. The Russian version of the Shahed 136 is cheap, costing roughly between $50,000 (£37,000) to $100,000 each, according to Samuel Bendett, a drone expert with the Centre for Naval Analyses thinktank. At the same time, component and manufacturing equipment supply for Shaheds has improved. 'China is more directly providing components to Russia,' said Kateryna Stepanenko, from the Institute of the Study of War, likely aided by a direct rail link to China near Yelabuga. 'Integration of Chinese components, where before there was supply from Iran, means the manufacturers now have a lot more available parts,' she said. Sign up to This is Europe The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans – from identity to economics to the environment after newsletter promotion In Ukraine, there is nervousness. Concern about the available air defence has prompted renewed public lobbying from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for US Patriot air defence systems, and a promise from Germany to pay for five more. But Patriots are only cost-effectively used against cruise and ballistic missiles, not Shaheds, because the modern PAC-3 interceptor missiles cost about $4m each. There has been a sustained effort in developing cheap drones to knock out the Shaheds, although details about the counter-drone efforts remain relatively scarce online, partly because the effort is concealed by operational security. A prominent Ukrainian fundraiser, Serhii Sternenko, said a fortnight ago that more than 100 air targets had been shot down as part of his foundation's 'Shahedoriz' project. That suggests modest progress. Watling argues the problem at the moment is that 'the technology exists but they have not scaled production of them yet'. That may be solved by a partnership announced by Zelenskyy with Google's former CEO Eric Schmidt earlier this month to produce 'interceptor drones', though again details are scant. At the same time, in the last month Ukrainian officials have been trying to restart efforts to lobby European powers to police the skies over the west of the country. One initiative, Sky Shield, proposed in March, suggested that 120 fighter jets could effectively engage in defensive air policing west of the Dnipro River – but this idea was only deemed practical after a ceasefire that Russia has refused to agree to. Though air policing has formed part of plans for a post-conflict 'reassurance force' led by the UK and France, there has so far been no appetite for western nations to step forward and protect Ukrainian airspace for fears it would lead to a direct conflict between a Nato country and Russia. 'It's so frustrating: countries send people to fight in Afghanistan for how long to defend from what – but nobody wants to help Ukraine better defend its skies,' said one source involved in the renewed effort. While there is not much confidence in diplomacy, the balance in the battle of the skies has tipped towards Russia. That could become more ominous if, in the coming weeks, Moscow makes a determined effort to target Ukraine's electricity grid and utility networks before winter. For now, the heightened level of missile and drone attacks demonstrates that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, 'remains committed to his goals to have Ukraine surrender and capitulate', said Stepanenko, from the Institute of the Study of War. 'This war is certainly not a stalemate.'
Forbes
7 days ago
- Politics
- Forbes
Can U.S.-Made Shahed Clones Compete In Drone Wars?
New footage shows mass production of Shahed drones at a Russian facility in Alabuga, Tartarstan Russian state media via Twitter On July 20th,Russian state television showed new footage from the giant drone factory which makes Iranian-designed Shahed-136s, revealing the sheer scale of production. The facility in Alabuga a thousand miles East of Moscow has ramped up production roughly tenfold in the last year, enough for more than 700 attack drones to be launched in one night. That could rise to 2,000 Shaheds a night by the end of the year, according to Major General Christian Freuding of Germany's Situation Center for Ukraine. Now plans are afoot for the U.S. to launch drone barrages of its own, with the Pentagon unveiling a new type of weapon apparently in response to a presidential request. But is the Pentagon ready to compete with Russia in launching mass drone attacks? Tactical "Tomahawk" Block IV cruise missile,, the U.S. choice for precision long range attack. US NAVY/AFP via Getty Images Traditionally the U.S. military has favored sophisticated, highly capable weapons like the Tomahawk cruise missile. This is a 20-foot-long weapon flying under 300 feet to avoid radar at around 500 mph and, delivering a 1,000-pound warhead to targets around 1,000 miles away. It has led to attack in many recent operations, including strikes on the Houthis in Yemen earlier this year. In the latest U.S. Navy budget, a batch of 40 Tomahawks cost $1.9 million each. That is not a lot of missiles in the arsenal, especially considering that many may not reach their targets. On 12th July, Russian launched 26 Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukraine, along with a number of other missiles and hundreds of drones. 25 of those 26 missiles were shot down by air defenses. The Shahed has a similar range and accuracy to the Tomahawk, but flies at a quarter of the speed and carries a tenth as much explosive. A high proportion of the drones were shot down in July 12th too – over 90% -- but as these cost around $35k each they look like a much more cost-effective way of hitting a target. Especially if a 1,00-pound warhead is not needed. President Trump remarked on the need for a U.S. equivalent of the Shahed at a Business Roundtable in Qatar in May, saying: The new LUCAS attack drone U.S. DoD 'We're coming up with a new system of drones because drones are really … drones really seem to be taking over that war… I asked one of the companies, I said, I want a lot of drones and in the case of Iran, they make a good drone and they make them for $35,000, $40,000. So I said to this company, I want to see. They came in two weeks later with a drone that cost $41 million. I said, that's not what I'm talking about, $41 million. I'm talking about something for $35,000, $40,000, where you send thousands of them up and that's a great way -- and they're very good too and fast and deadly, horrible, actually, when you look at what's happening with Russia and Ukraine .' (My emphasis) Part of this speech was quoted on a signboard in front of the new Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS) displayed in the Pentagon courtyard at an event attended by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth last week. LUCAS looks very much like a Shahed clone, and is billed as ' designed to rival Iran's widely used Shahed-136 loitering munition, in a push to expand affordable airpower options for modern battlefields .' But the new drone may not be all that it seems. A Weapon, Or Just A Target? LUCAS is made by Arizona contractor SpektreWorks and LUCAS looks very much like a version of their FLM-136, a copy of the Shahed-136 made for 'threat emulation'. In other words it was designed as an aerial target for U.S. forces to get realistic practice shooting down Shaheds. Norma Jean Dougherty, aka Marilyn Monroe, assembling target drones in 1945 U.S. Army The U.S has been using target drones for decades. In WWII an Army photographer captured one Norma Jean Dougherty (later to become famous as Marilyn Monroe) on the assembly line for RadioPlane OQ-3 target drones. Generations of target drones followed, including the Teledyne Ryan Firebee, successfully converted into a reconnaissance drone in the Vietnam War. It is obvious why the military would want a drone target representing a Shahed. The U.S. Navy came under attack from a variety of similar drones launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea recently and needs to practice the best ways to tackle them. However the requirement for a target drone is not the same as for an attack drone. The specifications of the FLM-136 show that while it is an excellent substitute for shooting practice, it does not have quite the performance the real thing. U.S. LUCAS attack drone on display week U.S. DoD The FLM-136 has the same size and speed as the Shahed-136 but weighs about half as much as and carries half the payload. Its range of around 500 miles is less than half that of the Shahed. What we do not know is the unit cost of the FLM-136, which is a key metric. It is possible that it really has been procured for the desired '$35,000, $40,000' but this would be remarkably low by Pentagon standards. Previous small drones have been known to cost more than their weight in gold, and the BQM-167 Skeeter, the Air Force's reusable jet-powered drone, costs $1.7 million each. Presumably the LUCAS is at least less than '$41 million,' or a Tomahawk cruise missile. But without seeing numbers we cannot know for sure. Return To The Age Of The Jet Bomb A series of images showing the trajectory of a JB-2 buzz bomb during take off in the desert, USA, ... More circa 1945-1950. (Photo by Frederic Lewis/) Getty Images Back in WWII, the U.S. was big on the idea of reverse-engineering enemy weapons and producing them at scale. The Republic-Ford JB-2 'Loon' was a direct copy of the German V-1 'Doodlebug' which carried out the same roles as the Shahed does now. 'JB' was short for 'Jet Bomb'. V-1s had caused tremendous damage in Europe. The plan was to use JB-2s to bombard Japan into submission with thousands of JB-2s with no risk of losing aircraft, launching them from the decks of aircraft carriers from where they could hit any part of Japanese territory. The military initially ordered 1,000 JB-2, with the same number to be made each month. The project was canceled when Japan surrendered while the first weapons were still on their way to the Pacific. Palmer Luckey, founder of Anduril, has said that he wants to see a return to the mass-production approach of WWII and 'bring mass to the fight.' This means vast numbers of Anduril's low-cost Barracuda cruise missile/drones and other weapons rather than a handful of Tomahawks. But Anduril products were not apparent at the Pentagon event. Whether the Pentagon is serious about this approach, or whether they just wanted to show the Secretary of Defence that the U.S. could make something that looks like the Shaheds the President asked for, is another matter. Meanwhile Ukraine is producing its own low-cost, long-range attack drones and plans to hit Rusia with 30,000 this year. These include a mix of sophisticated types and ultra-low-cost designs with bodies fashioned from plastic pipe. The drone arms race is well under way, and the U.S. is starting from behind.
Miami Herald
21-07-2025
- Politics
- Miami Herald
Russia Will Soon Fire 2,000 Drones a Day: ISW
Russia's drone production has expanded so much that within months, it might be able to launch up to 2,000 of the devices in a single night, according to a report. Moscow fired another barrage of drones and missiles on Ukrainian cities overnight Sunday. Ukraine's Air Force said Moscow launched 450 drones and missiles targeting Kyiv and the cities of Ivano-Frankivsk and Kharkiv. But Ukrainian and German officials have raised the alarm that Russia's production of Shahed-type drones had grown to such an extent that strike packages four times bigger could be possible by November. Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment. Moscow continues to step up its drone bombardment of Ukrainian cities as Russian President Vladimir Putin ignores calls for a ceasefire. Moscow's forces initially relied on Iranian-made Shahed or "kamikaze" drones to wreak havoc in strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure but is now using the technology to produce its own devices in its own factories across Russia. Reports by German and Ukrainian officials about this increasing capacity will raise alarm about Moscow's intentions come winter when it could use the colder months to target the Ukrainian population. Russia has been stepping up its Shahed-type strike drones and decoy drones in overnight strikes with the largest attack so far including 728 drones taking place on July 8. But Moscow is boosting drone production capacity with the aim of launching 2,000 drones in one overnight strike package by November. That is according to the head of the German Ministry of Defense's Planning and Command Staff, Major General Christian Freuding, reported by Ukrainian outlet Suspilne citing comments he made to the a German military podcast. In reporting the comments, the Institute for the Study of War said current growth in Russia's drone production and usage makes this number achievable in that time frame although such a strike package would not be sustainable every night. This is a double the estimate to one made July 4 by commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Major Robert Brovdi who said increased production and stockpiles means Russia could launch 1,000 drones in a single strike package. This figure is also a marked increase from the assessment on June 9 of Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) that Russia plans to increase production capacity to 190 drones per day, by the end of 2025. Freuding said Saturday that Ukraine and its allies must look at cheaper ways to counter this threat because traditional air defense methods, like Patriot interceptors, are not best suited to defend against drones. It comes as Russia showcased a drone factory near Kazan in the Tatarstan region which is producing drones, including the Geran-2 which is also an Iranian design. In a propaganda video, teenagers are seen assembling the devices for use against Ukraine at the facility at the Alabuga industrial park. the Russian Defense Ministry's television channel it produces a 5,200 Shahed-type strike drones and decoy models a month as of May and will make thousands of Geran drones at the "largest plant in the world." German Major General Christian Freuding: "The Russian army plans to launch up to 2,000 drones over Ukraine at one time." Institute for the Study of War on Sunday: "Russia may be able to launch up to 2,000 drones in one night by November 2025, should this current growth trend in drone usage continue." Timur Shagivaliev, CEO of the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, told Russian defense ministry outlet Zvezda the drone factory in Tartastan is "the largest such plant in the world and the most plan was to produce several thousand (Geran drones) - now we are producing nine times more than planned." Russia is likely to continue its drone attacks on Ukraine which Freuding said Kyiv could counter by striking drone production sites and lowering interception costs. Ukraine has also increased its domestic drone production with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying Kyiv can produce up to 8 million drones annually but it needs more foreign funding. Related Articles Melania Trump Attacked in Russian State MediaRussia and Ukraine Exchange Series of Major StrikesRussia Touts Trump-Putin Meeting for Major DeadlineNATO Scrambles Fighter Jets Amid 'Massive' Russian Attacks 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Newsweek
21-07-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Russia Will Soon Fire 2,000 Drones a Day: ISW
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Russia's drone production has expanded so much that within months, it might be able to launch up to 2,000 of the devices in a single night, according to a report. Moscow fired another barrage of drones and missiles on Ukrainian cities overnight Sunday. Ukraine's Air Force said Moscow launched 450 drones and missiles targeting Kyiv and the cities of Ivano-Frankivsk and Kharkiv. But Ukrainian and German officials have raised the alarm that Russia's production of Shahed-type drones had grown to such an extent that strike packages four times bigger could be possible by November. Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment. Ukraine's emergency services tackle a fire after a mass Russian drone and missile attack on Kyiv July 4, 2025 in Kyiv, Ukraine. Ukraine's emergency services tackle a fire after a mass Russian drone and missile attack on Kyiv July 4, 2025 in Kyiv, It Matters Moscow continues to step up its drone bombardment of Ukrainian cities as Russian President Vladimir Putin ignores calls for a ceasefire. Moscow's forces initially relied on Iranian-made Shahed or "kamikaze" drones to wreak havoc in strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure but is now using the technology to produce its own devices in its own factories across Russia. Reports by German and Ukrainian officials about this increasing capacity will raise alarm about Moscow's intentions come winter when it could use the colder months to target the Ukrainian population. What To Know Russia has been stepping up its Shahed-type strike drones and decoy drones in overnight strikes with the largest attack so far including 728 drones taking place on July 8. But Moscow is boosting drone production capacity with the aim of launching 2,000 drones in one overnight strike package by November. That is according to the head of the German Ministry of Defense's Planning and Command Staff, Major General Christian Freuding, reported by Ukrainian outlet Suspilne citing comments he made to the a German military podcast. In reporting the comments, the Institute for the Study of War said current growth in Russia's drone production and usage makes this number achievable in that time frame although such a strike package would not be sustainable every night. This is a double the estimate to one made July 4 by commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Major Robert Brovdi who said increased production and stockpiles means Russia could launch 1,000 drones in a single strike package. This figure is also a marked increase from the assessment on June 9 of Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) that Russia plans to increase production capacity to 190 drones per day, by the end of 2025. Freuding said Saturday that Ukraine and its allies must look at cheaper ways to counter this threat because traditional air defense methods, like Patriot interceptors, are not best suited to defend against drones. It comes as Russia showcased a drone factory near Kazan in the Tatarstan region which is producing drones, including the Geran-2 which is also an Iranian design. In a propaganda video, teenagers are seen assembling the devices for use against Ukraine at the facility at the Alabuga industrial park. the Russian Defense Ministry's television channel it produces a 5,200 Shahed-type strike drones and decoy models a month as of May and will make thousands of Geran drones at the "largest plant in the world." What People Are Saying German Major General Christian Freuding: "The Russian army plans to launch up to 2,000 drones over Ukraine at one time." Institute for the Study of War on Sunday: "Russia may be able to launch up to 2,000 drones in one night by November 2025, should this current growth trend in drone usage continue." Timur Shagivaliev, CEO of the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, told Russian defense ministry outlet Zvezda the drone factory in Tartastan is "the largest such plant in the world and the most plan was to produce several thousand (Geran drones) — now we are producing nine times more than planned." What Happens Next Russia is likely to continue its drone attacks on Ukraine which Freuding said Kyiv could counter by striking drone production sites and lowering interception costs. Ukraine has also increased its domestic drone production with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying Kyiv can produce up to 8 million drones annually but it needs more foreign funding.
