Latest news with #ChristopherWaller
The National
15 hours ago
- Business
- The National
Trump continues attacks on Powell as White House aides to tour site of latest flashpoint
US President Donald Trump has continued his relentless pressure campaign on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, again calling the board to act as he says chairman Jerome Powell 'just doesn't get it'. 'Our rate should be three points lower than they are, saving us $1 trillion per year (as a country). This stubborn guy at the Fed just doesn't get it – never did, and never will. The board should act, but they don't have the courage to do so!' Mr Trump wrote on the Truth Social media platform. The latest post comes a week before the Federal Reserve 's next meeting, where it is expected to continue its pause on rate cuts. The Fed has held rates steady at 4.25 to 4.50 per cent this year after easing policy by 100 basis points towards the end of 2024, owing to uncertainty surrounding Mr Trump's tariff agenda. Mr Trump has repeatedly called for the Fed to lower rates to help service US debt, a concept known as fiscal dominance. The Fed chairman has maintained a wait-and-see approach towards rates in defiance of Mr Trump's pressure campaign. Public remarks from other Fed officials indicate broad support to keep rates on hold next week, although Fed governor Christopher Waller – a Trump appointee and reported candidate to succeed Mr Powell – previewed a dissent from his colleagues last week by arguing the Fed should lower rates by 25 basis points. As his anger over Mr Powell has increased, Mr Trump has expanded his line of attacks on the Fed chairman. Tensions reached a boiling point last week following reports that Mr Trump indicated to Republicans in Congress he was open to firing the Fed chairman. Mr Trump confirmed he brought up the idea, but said it was unlikely he would try to oust Mr Powell. The most recent flashpoint centres on renovations at the Federal Reserve's headquarters in Washington, which have ballooned to roughly $2.5 billion. White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, who has referred to the project as the 'Taj Mahal on the National Mall', said in a tweet that Trump officials were scheduled to visit the site on Thursday. The Fed released a virtual site visit on its website earlier this week. Mr Powell has linked cost overruns to unforeseen conditions, such as more asbestos than anticipated, contamination in the soil and a higher-than-expected water table. The project was first approved by the Federal Reserve Board in 2017 and is subject to annual budget approval. Still, some believe the White House could be using the Fed renovations as a pretext to fire Mr Powell. White House budget director Russell Vought said Mr Powell has 'grossly mismanaged' the Fed, pointing to the renovation costs. Fed officials can only be fired for cause, which is generally thought to be malfeasance or neglect of duty. The Supreme Court in May signalled that it would side with Mr Powell if Mr Trump were to fire him over a policy dispute. Mr Powell has repeatedly said that he would never resign as Fed chairman before his term ends in May 2026. He has not said if he would continue his role as Fed governor, which runs into 2028. Former PIMCO chief executive Mohamed El Erian broke from other prominent economists on Tuesday by suggesting Mr Powell should voluntarily step down as chairman to protect the Fed. Speaking at the World Bank, Mr El Erian questioned whether Mr Powell would expose the Fed to greater threats if he remained in his position. 'This tension between the President and the chairman of the Fed, if it continues, it will suck in more elements of the Fed,' Mr El Erian said when asked by The National, following a keynote address. Top bankers have defended Mr Powell, however, with JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon last week saying interfering with the Fed 'can have adverse consequences'. Bank of America chief executive Brian Moynihan, Citigroup executive Jane Fraser, Goldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein also came to Mr Powell's defence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV that he was 'somewhat surprised' Egyptian-American Mr El Erian had called for Mr Powell's resignation. Mr Bessent also repeated his call to conduct a review of Federal Reserve activities outside monetary policy, telling Bloomberg TV that 'mission creep from the Fed is endangering their independence of monetary policy'. 'An internal review would be a good start. And if the internal review didn't look like it was serious, then maybe there could be an external review,' said the Treasury Secretary. Mr Bessent also said there is 'no rush' to identify Mr Powell's successor as Fed chairman. 'There are a lot of strong candidates, including several who are on the main board and perhaps regional bank presidents,' he said. The Federal Open Market Committee consists of the Fed chairman and the six other members of the Federal Reserve Board, the president of the New York Fed and four of the other 11 regional Fed banks that serve on a rotating basis. Other than Mr Waller, the reported candidates to succeed Mr Powell include National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Mr Bessent himself. The Treasury secretary said there's a 'long, long list' of names to replace Mr Powell.
Forbes
18 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
Fed Governor Makes Case For Cutting Interest Rates Now
Christopher Waller, Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors of the United States, arrives ... More for the morning session at 2025 European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Penha Longa Resort on July 01, 2025 in Sintra, Portugal. The European Central Bank hosts its annual Forum on Central Banking from June 30 to July 02. This year the Forum deals with "Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses." (Photo by Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Getty Images) In a July 17 speech Fed Governor Christopher Waller has made the case for lower interest rates based on emerging risks to the job market and a willingness to look through any tariff-related inflation. It is somewhat unusual for a voting member to take such an explicit public position with an interest rate decision approaching on July 30. A Dissent May Be Coming In July If this position is not embraced by the Federal Open Market Committee, then this gives a strong signal of a dissent from Waller. This means that Waller may vote to cut interest rates on July 30 even if the majority decision is to hold the Federal Funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5%. Fixed income markets currently project only a 5% chance that the FOMC does cut rates in July and the FOMC seldom surprises markets in the near term. This means Waller's view may prove an outlier, even though the FOMC's own projections imply cuts are coming in 2025, but probably at later meetings. A Direct Speech Waller's speech was direct because it is more common for FOMC policymakers to discuss other topics in speeches and reference monetary policy perspectives briefly at the opening or closing of their speeches. Expressed views are often more abstract or medium-term in nature rather than calling for a specific policy action in 2 weeks. Waller's July 17 speech was very directly titled, 'The Case for Cutting Now', with an unambiguous opening statement, 'My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should reduce our policy rate by 25 basis points at our next meeting'. Risks To Jobs Waller made the case for lower rates in his speech. He argued, "private-sector payroll gains are near stall speed and flashing red.' His main observation that was in contrast to most recent statements from FOMC members, was that the labor market is softer than it may appear, based on weak private sector job gains and the potential for negative revisions to recent reports. Waller agreed that recent headline unemployment data for June was 'reassuring' but went on to say, "Looking a little deeper, I see reasons to be concerned. Half of the payroll gain came from state and local government, a sector of employment that is notoriously difficult to seasonally adjust this time of year. In contrast, private payroll employment grew just 74,000, a much smaller gain than in the previous two months.' Waller then continued, 'A pattern in data revisions in recent years tells us that the private payroll data are being overestimated and will be revised down significantly when the benchmark revision occurs in early 2026." In addition, Waller is willing to look through any inflationary impact of tariffs, saying, 'policy should look through tariff effects and focus on underlying inflation'. This, for now, is perhaps a different perspective to those recently expressed by other FOMC policymakers including Powell. Other FOMC policymakers have argued that there is relatively elevated economic uncertainty currently and that policymakers might be best positioned to wait for further data on inflation and jobs before adjusting rates given slightly elevated inflation and a robust jobs market. However, the consensus is that economic undertainty may be receding and that rates will likely move slightly lower later in 2025, just likely not at the July meeting. Trump's Calls For Lower Rates Of course, perhaps not coincidentally, this comes at a time when President Trump and others in his administration have been unrelenting and very public in criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates. The Fed's Mandate However, Trump's criticism is largely at cross-purposes with the Fed's mandate. Trump wants to see lower interest rates on government debt, as a way to cut expenses. Although, the FOMC only controls a certain short-term interest rates, not the total cost of government borrowing, which is determined by a host of factors including market forces. In contrast, the Fed's stated mandate is to control inflation and promote employment. Generally, that's why many central banks are independent from politicians, politicians generally prefer lower interest rates for short-term benefits, regardless of whether it is appropriate for the economy over the longer term. Trump is expected to nominate a new Fed Chair for 2026 within months, and Waller is currently viewed as a clear candidate for that position, though not among the front runners on recent assessments. What To Expect If it doesn't sway the broader FOMC, as seems unlikely in the absence of further supporting economic data, then it appears likely that Waller, and maybe others, will dissent in calling for lower rates at the FOMC's July 30 decision as rates are held steady. However, this may provide further evidence that an interest rate cut is coming in September, something which the markets assess as probable currently.
Economic Times
a day ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Gold ETF has beaten Nifty ETF 7 times in 10 years. How to invest now?
Synopsis Gold ETFs have mostly outperformed Nifty ETFs in the last decade. An ETMutualFunds analysis reveals gold ETFs beat Nifty ETFs seven out of ten times since 2016. Gold ETFs saw huge inflows in June, reaching Rupees 2,080 crore. Experts suggest watching Federal Reserve announcements and economic data. These factors could influence gold prices globally and on MCX. Gold commodity based ETFs have outperformed Nifty50 ETF around 70% of the times in the last 10 years, an analysis by ETMutualFunds showed. In other words, Since calendar year 2016 to 2025 so far, gold ETFs have outperformed Nifty50 based ETFs seven out of 10 times. ADVERTISEMENT For the analysis, we considered the average return of all Nifty50 based ETFs in the last 10 calendar years and gold based ETFs in the same period separately. A deep dive into the data showed that from 2016 to 2025 so far, gold ETFs have outperformed Nifty50 ETFs in 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024 and 2025 so far. In calendar year 2016 where Nifty50 ETFs gave an average return of 3.31%, Gold ETFs gave an average return of 10.47%. Also Read | Confused between gold and silver? Why not leave it for fund manager to decideSimilarly in 2018, 2019, and 2020 gold ETFs gave 7.02%, 22.94%, and 26.24% average returns respectively against an average return of 4.28%, 13.34%, and 15.73% in the same time period respectively. In 2022, gold ETFs gave 14.10% average return compared to an average return of 5.53% by Nifty50 ETFs. In 2024, gold based ETFs gave an average return of 18.49% against an average return of 9.98% by Nifty50 ETFs. ADVERTISEMENT On the contrary, in 2017, Nifty50 ETFs outshined by delivering an average return of 28.12% against an average return of 2.74% by gold ETFs. On one side where gold ETFs lost 4.48%, Nifty50 ETFs gave 23.72% average return. With gold ETFs outperforming Nifty50 ETFs in the current calendar year so far, Riya Singh, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency at Emkay Global Financial Services said that Gold prices remained firm above $3,350/oz last week, reflecting a cautious yet supportive macro backdrop shaped by dovish commentary from key Federal Reserve officials, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and tariff-driven inflation concerns. ADVERTISEMENT Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his preference for a July rate cut to cushion economic risks, reinforcing expectations of 45 basis points of easing by year-end, even though the upcoming July 30 FOMC meeting is largely expected to result in a hold and his comments drove US Treasury yields and the dollar index lower, supporting gold, which benefits in a lower rate environment, Singh other factors have kept safe-haven flows resilient, with the World Gold Council reporting a 26% YTD rally and projecting a further 0–5% upside under base case scenarios, or 10–15% if stagflationary or recessionary conditions materialize, the analyst mentioned. ADVERTISEMENT Also Read | 14 equity MFs lost over 5% in 9 months. Have you parked your savings in any of them?Gold ETFs witnessed 600% surge in monthly inflows to Rs 2,080 crore in June. In May, gold ETFs received an inflow of Rs 291.91 crore after witnessing outflows for two consecutive months. In March and April, gold ETFs witnessed an outflow of Rs 77.21 crore and Rs 5.82 crore respectively. ADVERTISEMENT The total assets under management of gold ETFs was recorded at Rs 64,777 crore as on June 30, 2025 witnessing a surge of 4% from AUM of Rs 62,452 crore in May. On a yearly basis, the AUM has grown by 89% from an AUM of Rs 34,355 crore as on June 30, 2024.'ETF inflows and steady central bank buying continue to underpin the broader bullish narrative, while the US dollar's worst start to a year since 1973 remains a tailwind. On the domestic front, MCX gold futures hovered around Rs 97,400 per 10 grams, with strong support at Rs 96,500 – 95,900 and resistance near Rs 99,800. In the week ahead, traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Powell's speech, China's loan prime rate decision, and key US macro releases including PMI and durable goods orders, which could shift interest rate expectations and determine the next directional impulse for gold globally and on MCX,' Jain said.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@ alongwith your age, risk profile, and Twitter handle. (Catch all the Mutual Fund News, Breaking News, Budget 2024 Events and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.) Subscribe to The Economic Times Prime and read the ET ePaper online. NEXT STORY
Time of India
a day ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold ETF has beaten Nifty ETF 7 times in 10 years. How to invest now?
Gold commodity based ETFs have outperformed Nifty50 ETF around 70% of the times in the last 10 years, an analysis by ETMutualFunds showed. In other words, Since calendar year 2016 to 2025 so far, gold ETFs have outperformed Nifty50 based ETFs seven out of 10 times. For the analysis, we considered the average return of all Nifty50 based ETFs in the last 10 calendar years and gold based ETFs in the same period separately. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category Project Management Data Science Data Analytics others Others Artificial Intelligence Degree Management CXO PGDM Public Policy Cybersecurity healthcare Design Thinking Operations Management Product Management Finance Technology Healthcare Digital Marketing MBA MCA Data Science Leadership Skills you'll gain: Portfolio Management Project Planning & Risk Analysis Strategic Project/Portfolio Selection Adaptive & Agile Project Management Duration: 6 Months IIT Delhi Certificate Programme in Project Management Starts on May 30, 2024 Get Details Skills you'll gain: Project Planning & Governance Agile Software Development Practices Project Management Tools & Software Techniques Scrum Framework Duration: 12 Weeks Indian School of Business Certificate Programme in IT Project Management Starts on Jun 20, 2024 Get Details A deep dive into the data showed that from 2016 to 2025 so far, gold ETFs have outperformed Nifty50 ETFs in 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024 and 2025 so far. In calendar year 2016 where Nifty50 ETFs gave an average return of 3.31%, Gold ETFs gave an average return of 10.47%. Best MF to invest Looking for the best mutual funds to invest? Here are our recommendations. View Details » Also Read | Confused between gold and silver? Why not leave it for fund manager to decide Similarly in 2018, 2019, and 2020 gold ETFs gave 7.02%, 22.94%, and 26.24% average returns respectively against an average return of 4.28%, 13.34%, and 15.73% in the same time period respectively. Live Events In 2022, gold ETFs gave 14.10% average return compared to an average return of 5.53% by Nifty50 ETFs. In 2024, gold based ETFs gave an average return of 18.49% against an average return of 9.98% by Nifty50 ETFs. On the contrary, in 2017, Nifty50 ETFs outshined by delivering an average return of 28.12% against an average return of 2.74% by gold ETFs. On one side where gold ETFs lost 4.48%, Nifty50 ETFs gave 23.72% average return. With gold ETFs outperforming Nifty50 ETFs in the current calendar year so far, Riya Singh, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency at Emkay Global Financial Services said that Gold prices remained firm above $3,350/oz last week, reflecting a cautious yet supportive macro backdrop shaped by dovish commentary from key Federal Reserve officials, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and tariff-driven inflation concerns. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his preference for a July rate cut to cushion economic risks, reinforcing expectations of 45 basis points of easing by year-end, even though the upcoming July 30 FOMC meeting is largely expected to result in a hold and his comments drove US Treasury yields and the dollar index lower, supporting gold, which benefits in a lower rate environment, Singh added. Simultaneously, other factors have kept safe-haven flows resilient, with the World Gold Council reporting a 26% YTD rally and projecting a further 0–5% upside under base case scenarios, or 10–15% if stagflationary or recessionary conditions materialize, the analyst mentioned. Also Read | 14 equity MFs lost over 5% in 9 months. Have you parked your savings in any of them? Gold ETFs witnessed 600% surge in monthly inflows to Rs 2,080 crore in June. In May, gold ETFs received an inflow of Rs 291.91 crore after witnessing outflows for two consecutive months. In March and April, gold ETFs witnessed an outflow of Rs 77.21 crore and Rs 5.82 crore respectively. The total assets under management of gold ETFs was recorded at Rs 64,777 crore as on June 30, 2025 witnessing a surge of 4% from AUM of Rs 62,452 crore in May. On a yearly basis, the AUM has grown by 89% from an AUM of Rs 34,355 crore as on June 30, 2024. 'ETF inflows and steady central bank buying continue to underpin the broader bullish narrative, while the US dollar's worst start to a year since 1973 remains a tailwind. On the domestic front, MCX gold futures hovered around Rs 97,400 per 10 grams, with strong support at Rs 96,500 – 95,900 and resistance near Rs 99,800. In the week ahead, traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Powell's speech, China's loan prime rate decision, and key US macro releases including PMI and durable goods orders, which could shift interest rate expectations and determine the next directional impulse for gold globally and on MCX,' Jain said. If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@ alongwith your age, risk profile, and Twitter handle.
Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Japanese yen-led dollar pullback to offer mild support to Indian rupee at open
MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is poised to open slightly higher on Tuesday, supported by a retreat in the dollar index that was largely triggered by a post-electionrally in the Japanese yen. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 86.20-86.22 range, versus 86.2925 in the previous session. On Monday, the Indian rupee weakened to 86.35 per dollar, its lowest level in a month, extending its losing streak to four sessions. Bankers attributed the decline to sustained dollar demand from importers and positioning in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market. A lack of equity inflows has added to the pressure on the currency. The trading range on USD/INR 'has probably shifted higher,' with the 86.00–86.10 now acting as a support zone, a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. 'Interbank is more inclined to buying dips than trying to call the top,' the trader added. The rupee at open is likely to find some support from the drop in the dollar index, which slid 0.62% on Monday — its steepest fall in over a month. The decline was spurred by a 1% jump in the yen. While the ruling coalition lost its majority, Prime Minister Ishiba's remarks that he would stay offered comfort to the yen, analysts said. Outside the yen, other Asian currencies were mixed on Tuesday, with the focus squarely on any progress on trade talks before the August 1 deadline for countries to strike deals with the U.S. or face high tariffs. Focus will also be on the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signalled he may dissent at next week's meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to keep rates unchanged. 'Waller remains in the distinct minority of two. We'll likely need to see very soft data, especially on the labour market, to convince investors that early cuts are on the table,' ING Bank said in a note.
