Latest news with #ChristyMathai


Economic Times
29-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Market consolidating now, poised for upswing in H2: Sachin Shah
Live Events You Might Also Like: India-UK trade deal not historic but should help Indian workers in UK: Swaminathan Aiyar You Might Also Like: Are current market valuations hiding opportunities or risks? Christy Mathai explains (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel , Fund Manager,, says the Indian economy is poised for a significant upswing in the latter half of the fiscal year, coinciding with an earlier festival season starting in September. Stimulus from regulators and supportive global inflation, particularly in oil and metal prices, are expected to boost demand. Domestic businesses are performing well, with leaders excelling and selective capital expenditure showing positive are right. We are seeing a good amount of consolidation but within the markets, within the sectors we are seeing that there is a decent amount of divergence and more importantly since we are in the midst of an earning season, we are seeing decent kind of results, from the likes of HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank or for that matter even companies like Eternal , Paytm, Laurus Labs.I am giving names across sectors, across largecaps and midcaps. So, wherever the results have been very decent, markets have rewarded, markets seem to be giving a vote of confidence over there. Wherever there have been some challenges with the results, we are seeing some disappointment; but again over there, we are not seeing a very sharp knee-jerk reaction. We are seeing that investors are probably going to put in more on hold rather than a selloff and basically, we will probably wait out for another couple of quarters because a lot of actions that we have seen at the ground level in terms of whether it was the RBI rate cuts, whether it is the tax breaks, whether it is the liquidity push, lower inflation, should probably start playing out in the next two-three quarters and maybe during the festival probably that is the hope. Overall, wherever good results are seen, we are seeing decent traction. Wherever, the results are not so good, probably markets are putting them on hold.A lot of factors, as far as macros are concerned, seem to be in favour of the Indian economy to start doing much better, particularly in the second half of this financial year which is during the festival season. In fact, this time, the festival season is going to be a little earlier. So, maybe sometime in September, October, November, we should see a decent amount of demand coming back and clearly it is getting a lot of stimulus from the regulator side, plus the global inflation is also very supportive – be it oil prices or a lot of other ferrous and non-ferrous metal of that should really help as far as the demand pickup is concerned. Even when you see some of the earning season at this point in time, most of the domestic businesses seem to be doing reasonably okay and within that, the leaders are doing even very big thing is in terms of selective capex also, when we hear some of the management commentaries in this earning season, that also seems to be under a good trajectory. Overall, we believe that the current earning season is panning out fairly decent and probably the second and third quarters should do even are right. Basically, all the macros being very positive for the Indian economy, there is just one big overhang, the tariffs. Again, the tariffs relative to the other countries, is something that we need to watch out for. As far as the pharma sector is concerned, we have been fairly constructive on this sector for almost the last two, three, four years or maybe even longer and within that, we have been very strongly positioned as far as the CDMO, the CRAMs (the contract research and manufacturing space) is whether it is Divi's Lab, or Laurus Lab, we have been owners of these businesses for a while now and we believe that these are businesses which are like have a secular theme for the next three to five years, not only China plus one but even Europe plus one in terms of the outsourcing as a theme and companies, all the companies in these sectors, particularly the leaders have actually established with their customers their right to win in terms of their domain expertise, in terms of the setting up very large capacities. Even currently, the kind of the capex announcements that we are hearing from these companies is really large. Something we have not seen cumulatively for the last five-seven years is what we are going to see in the next two-three years, so that is another very important third very important thing is the kind of comfort that they give to their customers in terms of respecting their intellectual property rights because a lot of these companies work on patented products or some of these NCPs, and that comfort as far as their confidentiality on their IPRs is also very that is one space that has long legs, at least for the next three-seven years. We continue to be very positive on that. Tariff on that, I understand, is also a function of the value proposition that these companies bring to their customers. If they have a strong value proposition compared to the other countries or the companies in the other countries, they will find their way out.: No, we definitely believe that as far as exports are concerned, and auto components are concerned, we have a very large opportunity, very similar to pharma. Our companies have established the right to win. They have relationships with a lot of these customers as they have been supplying them components. They are also supplying large OEs globally. In fact, not only globally, but even in India, there is a very long gestation period as far as the product approvals are concerned and our companies have already surpassed those hurdles. They have the confidence of their global customers in terms of their quality checks, so that is very another very important thing is in terms of the domestic side because today domestic is still a very large market for our OEs and there we are not seeing very great numbers in the last at least three-four months in this financial year or maybe even the last six months. But there the hope is that with all the measures that both the government and the RBI has taken in the last few months, at the ground level, we should see demand coming back very strongly.


Time of India
28-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Are current market valuations hiding opportunities or risks? Christy Mathai explains
Christy Mathai , Fund Manager - Equity , Quantum AMC , says they like buying underpriced companies, aiming to buy at a 25% discount to their intrinsic value. Currently, IT and banking sectors present opportunities due to earnings not reflecting their normalized potential. Relative valuation within sectors, particularly among second or third-tier players, offers prospects. Insurance and AMCs are also viewed favorably. A lot of factors are impacting the market at present – be it the global or local factors, but a clear trigger to boost the market is still missing. The earnings are also not trying to help the market at present. What is your short, medium, and longer-term view on the market? Christy Mathai: When we look at the markets at the current juncture, we are in an easing cycle monetarily. The central bank is trying to revive the credit growth which is lagging from the past couple of quarters and also to stimulate growth in the economy. Broadly some of those can come through because we are sitting at a lower base versus last year but from a normalised perspective, it is nothing so great. 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If you were to look at some of the numbers that have come out, it seems to be a mixed bag. So, there is no certain acceleration in the company reported numbers. Looking short-term, it is very difficult to say as it is all a function of flows, possibly if the FIIs come back in a big way, we will see some rally, but it is very difficult to call out. But from a medium and long-term perspective, given where valuations are, it will be driven by the earnings trends and in its absence, there is a general expectation of earnings inching up. If that were not to come through, we would be in a state of consolidation for some time. What is your investment philosophy and what are the sectors currently on your radar? Your investment philosophy says that you buy stocks of companies that are at a minimum 25% discount from their intrinsic or fair value. Having said that, these opportunities come when the market, especially in the short term, is fixated and when there are disappointments. Looking at the current trajectory of the market, how are you placed in sectors or the companies that you are looking at, especially the midcaps and smallcaps ? Christy Mathai: Our philosophy is typically trying to buy underpriced companies. If 100 is supposed to be the intrinsic value, we would want to buy it at least 25% cheaper; that is our philosophy. In a way, we run a value style here. From that framework, if you were to look at the current juncture, not a lot of sectors fit into that bucket because many of those sectors are trading at fair or above fair in terms of valuations. Live Events You Might Also Like: Mark Matthews on why FTA with UK, US trade deal shouldn't matter much for India If we were to look at what should be a normalised earnings for a company two to three years out and, some of the sectors like IT, the current two-year, three-year earnings have been somewhere in the vicinity of mid-single digit. Do we think this is where the normalised earnings would be? We think not. We are more exposed to that sector. Same is the case with banking where the recent earnings print is not reflective of what their normalised earnings should be. In this case, there is book value growth. We think those are the opportune sectors to get in. This is a market of relative valuation. In a great sector, the top player would be perfectly priced, but when you move down to the second player or third player, relative to the valuation that the market accords, there could be some opportunities. Hence we are present in some of those names. We think in sectors like insurance, AMCs, etc, those will be some of the great opportunities. Now from a relative market cap segmentation, an investor should have exposure across the breadth. It is how you want and what percentage you want in terms of an exposure. In smallcaps and midcaps, you have to be extremely selective and that is what we are trying to do in some of our funds. We are not exposed much to the euphoric part of the markets –be it capital goods, defence, and so on and so forth, but we are trying to minimise the risk from that perspective. At any point in time, you should have that perfect asset allocation to help you navigate these markets. You Might Also Like: Keep investment goals in mind; focus on a five-year horizon for better results: Shiv Chanani Recently India-UK FTA has been signed. and I want to understand from you, will you be redrawing your strategies in the aftermath of this deal and more importantly you mentioned about the India-US trade deal as well which looks like round the corner, how do you view it? Christy Mathai: We just talked about the India-UK tariff deal, and so we just look from a market perspective. Some of the sectors get impacted, not really much, though it would be great from an economic standpoint that now some of the barriers are out of the way, but not much from a market perspective. If you were to look at the US tariffs now, our exports to the US is minuscule compared to the overall import basket. So, from that perspective, the few sectors which everybody knows and talks about are gems and jewelleries, pharma is a large sector from our vantage point, but we do not think there could be a major impact as there is always room for error because this is all policymaking. But given the generic nature, you are in a way trying to reduce the cost to the end consumer in the US. So, how much punitive action do you want to put in that sector? Some of the middlemen who are profiting quite a bit, would be exposed to some of these tariffs if there is more pricing action on that front. This is one sector that could be on the radar given the deal front and the whole IT services is indirectly impacted by this sector because the Fortune 500 companies of the world would possibly not be spending so much on it when the expectations are not very clear, where to invest, how to invest. Some of the issues with respect to how supply chains would be revamped and how it would impact the Fortune 500 companies and thereby their spending – that uncertainty would decrease. In a way, IT services are currently impacted, but incrementally we expect positivity when this dust settles. You Might Also Like: Nilesh Shah on how to treat smallcaps and midcaps right now


Economic Times
27-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Bank Nifty scales new peak on strong buying, short covering
ET Bureau Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Mumbai : Bank Nifty closed at a record high on Thursday, riding a bullish wave , as liquidation of bearish positions ahead of the expiry of the June derivative contracts fuelled the index comprising shares of 12 top lenders advanced for the third consecutive session, surging 1% to 57,206.70 on Thursday, the highest closing analysts said the index is expected to be at 57,500–58,000 levels in the near term and outperform the benchmark Nifty.'Bank Nifty has witnessed good momentum recently and the positive undertone, along with short covering , led to the index making fresh highs today,' said Nilesh Jain, head of derivatives and technical research, Centrum of the 12 stocks in the index, nine advanced and three decliThe change in RBI's policy stance and significant infusion of liquidity also boost buying interest: Analysts ned. HDFC Bank jumped close to 2% ahead of the record date for the dividend. AU Bank and Axis Bank rose around 1.5% each. ICICI Bank advanced by over 1%. State Bank of India, IDFC First Bank and Federal Bank declined.'Most of the stocks in the banking pack were trading at low valuations sometime back and are catching up with the market currently,' said Christy Mathai, fund manager, Quantum Mutual Fund. 'The change in RBI's stance and the significant infusion of liquidity have also spurred buying interest.'In the past month, the Bank Nifty index gained 2.9%, while the benchmark Nifty advanced 2.2% in the same period. So far in 2025, the Bank Nifty is up 12% against the 7.6% gains in the said the technical setup suggests room for further upside and the provisional derivatives data indicate a strong build-up of bullish positions, which could propel the banking stocks higher. The near-term setup remains strong in HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, he said despite the rally in NBFC stocks, the runway for growth looks good due to their largely retail focus. 'Private banks are our top picks in the segment,' said Mathai. 'The impact on the net interest margins is also expected to normalise a few quarters down the line, and there is potential for earnings growth to pick up in the sector.'


Time of India
18-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
IT sector poised for earnings surprise in FY26-27 on reviving tech spend: Christy Mathai
"Combination of these factors we are fairly positive on the EPS trajectory going ahead and this environment is very good for the private capex to grow as well because you have had interest rate cuts. The corporates can borrow cheaper. At present, they have significant cash on their books. But given the tariff uncertainty especially with respect to Trump and so on and so forth, there is some issues on that front," says Christy Mathai , Quantum AMC. Give us a sense of how you are positioning your portfolio amid all the geopolitical uncertainty we are seeing right now. How much of it is deployed? How much are you sitting in terms of cash? Christy Mathai: So, clearly this economic backdrop is pretty conducive compared to what it was, let us say, about three or six months back. What we have seen is the government is really pushing the pedal on growth and we have some indication of it as we look at the 4Q GDP numbers as well. Also, the inflation is clearly moderating and we do not think the current geopolitical issues would really change that materially unless the crude were to go really up which we do not foresee in a normal case scenario and against this backdrop, what we have seen is RBI is infusing liquidity and frontloaded quite a bit of interest rate cuts, so this should propel some sort of earnings growth going ahead, the CRR cut of 100 basis points was particularly positive, it has a multiplier impact on the economy because the lending increases assuming the bank do not park it in G-Secs and they start lending again. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Kulkas yang belum Terjual dengan Harga Termurah (Lihat harga) Cari Sekarang Undo So, combination of these factors we are fairly positive on the EPS trajectory going ahead and this environment is very good for the private capex to grow as well because you have had interest rate cuts. The corporates can borrow cheaper. At present, they have significant cash on their books. But given the tariff uncertainty especially with respect to Trump and so on and so forth, there is some issues on that front. But broadly, we think all the signs are right for the earnings growth to slowly pick up. Our concerns chiefly is on the valuations, given the 10% or more rally that we have seen in the past couple of months, valuation is the only concern for us and hence possibly, we are not looking at a great set of returns one-year or two-year out. But apart from that broadly earnings trajectory should be positive. Live Events But any new sector where you believe the earnings momentum can really take the sector higher from the current levels because a lot of sector churning is already underway. We have seen the runup in financials. Other than that, of late, it is the IT, select healthcare counters that are making a comeback. Christy Mathai: So, in terms of earnings, possibly where things can look up from our sense is purely looking at the IT pack. We have had possibly very near-term rally, so to say in it, but what we are looking at is most of the FY26 numbers have been dramatically cut, it is possibly in the vicinity of maybe 3% to 5% growth which possibly the managements are guiding, but we think this number at least maybe FY26-27 could be much better owing to the fact that the technology spends possibly can come back because we are sitting over a three years of absolutely no IT spends especially on the services part by the major banks in US or manufacturing sector. So, there is a possibility of that picking up, plus the margins also can expand given some of the cost levers that most of the IT players have in hand. So, we think you that could be a possible place where there could be earnings surprise as we move ahead. But broadly, if you were to just think about the consumption theme also, where we are invested through autos primarily which is also a play on interest rate cut and there could be better credit growth in that particular sector, which is at present not happening, so some of these two-wheeler volumes especially in the mass segment which have been hit by inflation for a long time which is now moderating can be a surprise going ahead. While we are talking about consumption, let us talk about an ancillary that is cement in a way. Give us a sense on where you are seeing cement as a sector moving ahead because we have seen benign raw material on the other hand, you have the monsoon overhang, so that seasonality is coming into play. Where do you see the cement sector headed now? Christy Mathai: So, we are invested in cement sector as a whole through one of the companies which is more contained to a specific geographic location where the price hike in the recent past has been good. But see over the course of the year you will have a usual seasonality play out, typically monsoon season you will see some demand moderation which picks up as you go ahead in the month of October or towards the Diwali, so that is the usual seasonality. The issue last year was one of a kind because you have had significant demand moderation along with fierce competitiveness because a lot of large players who have sort of consolidated were pushing up the volumes in through some of their acquired entities, so that was what is depressing the prices to a four-year or five-year low. Now, we see that improving which is sort of a big positive for the sector as a whole. Monsoon seasonality, it usually happens, so there is nothing concerning as such and the government capex and slowly the demand recovery in, let us say, the housing segment should be a key driver as you look at the cement stocks. We did touch upon select sectors there and also you did share your outlook on the earnings front, but if I have to ask you top three sectors where you are most bullish on which one those will be and the three sectors you believe will be languishing for some time from now to participate in the rally for Indian markets. Christy Mathai: So, clearly where we have large allocation are clearly the banks, financials which is not very different from when you look at an index perspective. But the point is here we think until now if you were to look at the whole people visualising the rate cut cycle, they were expecting an extended rate cut cycle, but with the stance change and the commentary that you hear looks like there will not be further rate cuts so what you will have there is a one or two, maybe three quarter impact on NIMs, but CRR cut is positive, so that is on the extreme near term in terms of what will happen. But otherwise, we think the credit growth should normalise ahead. IT is at 9%, sub-9% at the moment and the deposit challenges are slowly going away. So, you should see that credit growth pick up as you go through the year, possibly in the second half, so 12-13% is what we think the long-term on credit growth has been for a very long period of time, we do not see that change, and within that the private players would have their play with a slightly higher growth rates, so that remains a pocket which is very attractive to us and reasonably valued in our view. The other sector as I said was it and some bit in consumption which is especially the auto pack with primarily play on two wheelers, so that is broadly our sectors where we are reasonably positive on. We have picked up on some of the financial plays as well, something like an insurance which we have added in the recent past that also looks pretty attractive when you were to really think about long-term growth because there is significant protection gap as we see it in the life insurance space and the valuations are not so expensive. The pocket where we are not so convinced about is again this is primarily driven by valuations. You just look at some of the cap goods names, some of the names which are driven by order book especially dependent on how the government spend would be, those are the pockets where there could be room for disappointment going ahead in a sense and some of the capital market linked themes where there could be impact in one of these years, we cannot really pinpoint which year it would be. So, these would be places where we would be a little bit wary off, but by and large positive.


Economic Times
27-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Market recovery driven by easing macros and FII inflows, but valuations remain expensive: Christy Mathai
Agencies Are you able to generate a secular 18-20% sort of return on equity, that seems to be the concerns especially considering the valuations that we see. "If you were to look at the earnings trajectory, again first half was pretty bad you have seen sizable earnings cut especially if you were to look at the FY26-27 earnings. But then, this earning season is probably a bit mixed. There are some pockets which have done well, some which has not," says Christy Mathai, Fund Manager-Equity, Quantum AMC. What a move in the markets of late though the news flow was quite volatile. We have been hearing from President Trump. The earning season is in full swing and then, we had the tensions border across. But there is always saying that good price and good news does not come along. Now that we are seeing that the prices are quite looking good, the bulls are seen to be back, especially with their interest in the largecap space and the news is also turning out to be the good, help us understand what is your take on the markets, is the price still good to go ahead and chip in some money? Christy Mathai: So, clearly, as you said the markets have just recovered quite sharply if you were to look at it and possibly some of the easing that we have seen on the macros, especially global macros for that matter, some of the geopolitical tensions easing would have contributed to that and we have seen a fair bit of inflows from the FIIs also, so which has kind of propelled the market to where it is. But see, I would look at from two-three lens. One, of course, if you were to just look at the plain macros, yes, things are improving after sort of not a weak first half FY25, things are just gradually inching up though the GDP estimates has been cut, possibly some bit of easing is happening especially if you look at the RBI actions, there is lot of liquidity infusion, if you were to look at the inflation, things have just kind of come down, that is on the macros. If you were to look at the earnings trajectory, again first half was pretty bad you have seen sizable earnings cut especially if you were to look at the FY26-27 earnings. But then, this earning season is probably a bit mixed. There are some pockets which have done well, some which has not. Our sense is the ask rate in terms of earnings is around 11, 11.5 which is not so demanding. So, the earnings cut further on may not be so steep, perhaps it would have bottomed out in that sense. But the mood point is the valuations. The valuations remain expensive across most of the buckets and that is true more also in the broader end, but if you were to just look out Nifty 50 or BSE 30, the valuations at Nifty at 21.5 is expensive. So, if you were to just put it all together, yes, we are more constructive with the markets, from the levels six to eight months back, but investors have to possibly be looking at moderate returns, especially in the context of what we have seen three- to five-year returns. Now, the kind of recovery that we have seen in the past few days and also the earnings trajectory, just like you were mentioning, are there any particular pockets where you see value in currently and are there any spaces that one must avoid at this point in time? Christy Mathai: Yes, clearly, so as I said, the headline numbers especially on the valuations may look expensive, but there are, of course, pockets of opportunities that you continue to see. There was initial period of correction that we have had. So, we have broadly added into some of the pockets where the earnings growth was a bit weaker, especially in the IT because there valuations had become, especially if you were to look at FCF yield and so on and so forth, things were looking a bit better. Also, if you were to look at the whole pharma bucket, there has been lot of news flow around it, again we have used that opportunity to add into some of these names. Same as with the financials. If you look at some of the general insurers, health insurers in the past few quarters, they have not gone anywhere in that sense because there could be one headwind or the other, but broadly if you were to just look at the whole pack, it looks a very fairly underpenetrated segment for country as a whole and long-term growth is not at all at risk. So, not participating in the rally for the past few months or years, we have kind of added into some of these pockets. Pockets we avoid, again, we are a value focused fund, so anything very expensive would be an avoid for us, especially the likes of what we are seeing in the whole cap good space, the defence where things are looking very expensive, although the near-term growth looks positive is what we would typically avoid because of our value focus. Since you said that you have added to some of the pharma counters, of late. Within the earning season, what we are seeing is that the generic companies are highlighting that they are immune to the Trump's executive order. While the CDMO companies with respect to the growth that is a long pending one and the long-term growth outlook is quite robust and then there is API where still that China plus one theme still goes on. Give us some sense within the pharma pack where are you finding opportunities. Christy Mathai: So, mostly our addition is in the generic space, especially the US focused generic, although they have sizable India-centric business as well. See, the point is the executive Trump order pertains to possibly the very high value products, especially coming from innovators or possibly from other developed countries. So, maybe India you would have some exposure, but not much. If some of those pricing are coming down, would there be an impact on generics? We do not really think, but we would have to get into finer nitty-gritties which is not very known at the moment. So, we have by and large found opportunities within the generic space where the valuations were coming down and the past two-three years earnings for a lot of these companies have been driven by fairly benign US pricing environment. It is cyclical to some extent, but the pricing environment in a sense may continue for some time like that, so which would be an impetus and some high value molecules or drugs which have come into the market, some of them are going off, but the point is there is enough and more which the Indian pharma companies through their Para IV filing or first to file there could be an opportunity to replace. So, by and large, we remain constructive on the sector. Again, you have to be very stock specific, so some of them would be trading very expensive, but some of them given the near-term issues might be trading cheap is where we find an opportunity. Just a little while ago you mentioned that cap goods and defence still look a little bit expensive to you. Can I also get your view on the power space. We have been watching out for the earnings, and it has been a mixed set, but the outlook there is very strong across companies. So, what is your take on that space and any names you could help us pick and avoid? Christy Mathai: So, if you were to look at the power sector, again some of these companies have done phenomenally well. We used to own quite a few of them, especially the utility bucket, but we sold out given what we have seen in terms of the rally in the recent past. See, the power sector growth has clearly been ahead of the long-term GDP growth that we have seen and some of them is trickling into whoever lies up ahead in the value chain and there will be more value creation in that bucket as opposed to just the power companies. But again, here the concerns is if you were just to look at the utility space where you get a regulated equity returns, some of these companies are not really priced for that regulated equity returns, which would be in the vicinity of 15-16% give or take. On the other sub-segment where, let us say, you are playing in the value chain within the power sector, again here things are much and beyond because you are looking at maybe two-three years of great earnings or revenue order book growth, but what will happen post that, that is the key you able to generate a secular 18-20% sort of return on equity, that seems to be the concerns especially considering the valuations that we see. So, as I said, we used to own some of these names, but we have kind of sold out in the ensuing rally. Currently, it looks unfavourable in our view. You have told us what is looking actually good to you, but tell us which is the area which is not looking that attractive to you at this point in time. Christy Mathai: If you look at the whole financial space where things have been market linked, could be broking houses, some of the AMCs where the valuations have run up. So, these are the pockets where one has to realise things are a bit cyclical because, for example, if you take a broking house or AMC or anything within that value chain, what you see is, it is linked to the market and there is cyclicality in that. But again our concern here in some of these pockets is, is that cyclicality rightly captured? For example, if you look at a typical AMC, there will be addition in terms of what will be the fresh flows, but there is also an M2M component which kind of helps every year. So, are we baking in great M2M for the next two years? We think not. Chances are there could be correction in that theme. So, all these entities which are market linked to some extent, there could be some bit of correction. In the near term, they are doing well because we have seen a rebound. But we have to think about the next one-year, two-year, three-year what can happen. We would see some drawdowns in some of these pockets, that is our expectation.