Latest news with #Chronert
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The bull case for stocks is growing among Wall Street strategists
Wall Street strategists aren't scared of a summer slowdown for stocks despite some indications of a cooling labor market and slowing economic activity. In the past month, several strategists have defended their S&P 500 year-end targets in the range of 6,300 to 6,500, noting that the most dire outcomes from tariffs may no longer be on the table. On Monday, the benchmark index was trading around 6,010, about 2% from the record closing high. In a note titled "Don't fight it," Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson pointed out that a "moderate slowdown in growth" was likely already priced in earlier this year when the average S&P 500 stock fell nearly 30%. "In our experience, stocks and equity market internals move well ahead of lagging economic data and earnings results," Wilson said. To be clear, there are certainly signs of softening in economic data. Last week, ADP data showed that the private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest monthly total in more than two years. Weekly filings for unemployment claims hit their highest level since October 2024. And monthly nonfarm payroll revisions revealed 95,000 fewer jobs were added in March and April than initially thought. But the slowdown in this data has been widely expected. The equity research team at Goldman Sachs analyzed prior "event driven recessions" such as the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 1970s interest rate shock. Goldman's team, led by chief US equity strategist David Kostin, found that so-called soft economic data, which encapsulates data points like consumer surveys, usually hits its cycle bottom before hard economic data, like monthly readings on inflation or job additions, does. That's been playing out over the past month. In May, the Conference Board's future expectations index saw its largest monthly increase since May 2009. But data on Monday showed inflation expectations in the New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey moved lower in May for the first time this year, perhaps marking that the worst tariff-driven inflation fears might be behind markets too. Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation Kostin's work shows the S&P 500 typically will follow the soft data's return higher, even if hard economic data, like monthly jobs reports, continues to move lower. "S&P 500 returns are currently more correlated with soft data than hard data," wrote Kostin, who projects the S&P 500 will hit 6,500 in the next 12 months. "If the recovery in soft data is sustained, it should support equity returns even as hard data weaken." Citi equity strategist Scott Chronert boosted his S&P 500 target to 6,300 on Monday from a prior forecast of 5,800. Chronert, like other strategists, pointed out that peak tariff uncertainty has likely passed following the pause on duties between the US and China. With that headwind easing, Chronert pointed out that economic growth forecasts are no longer falling either. After tumbling to a recent bottom of 1.35% in early May, consensus is now projecting the US economy to grow at an annualized pace of 1.4% in 2025. Chronert and other strategists agree that the key risk moving forward would be that economic growth data slows more than consensus is now expecting. But barring that outcome, Chronert likes growth stocks such as Big Tech names amid a market environment that features elevated interest rates and high stock valuations. "Our growth preference continues for now as the AI theme regains momentum," Chronert wrote. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The bull case for stocks is growing among Wall Street strategists
Wall Street strategists aren't scared of a summer slowdown for stocks despite some indications of a cooling labor market and slowing economic activity. In the past month, several strategists have defended their S&P 500 year-end targets in the range of 6,300 to 6,500, noting that the most dire outcomes from tariffs may no longer be on the table. On Monday, the benchmark index was trading around 6,010, about 2% from the record closing high. In a note titled "Don't fight it," Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson pointed out that a "moderate slowdown in growth" was likely already priced in earlier this year when the average S&P 500 stock fell nearly 30%. "In our experience, stocks and equity market internals move well ahead of lagging economic data and earnings results," Wilson said. To be clear, there are certainly signs of softening in economic data. Last week, ADP data showed that the private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest monthly total in more than two years. Weekly filings for unemployment claims hit their highest level since October 2024. And monthly nonfarm payroll revisions revealed 95,000 fewer jobs were added in March and April than initially thought. But the slowdown in this data has been widely expected. The equity research team at Goldman Sachs analyzed prior "event driven recessions" such as the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 1970s interest rate shock. Goldman's team, led by chief US equity strategist David Kostin, found that so-called soft economic data, which encapsulates data points like consumer surveys, usually hits its cycle bottom before hard economic data, like monthly readings on inflation or job additions, does. That's been playing out over the past month. In May, the Conference Board's future expectations index saw its largest monthly increase since May 2009. But data on Monday showed inflation expectations in the New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey moved lower in May for the first time this year, perhaps marking that the worst tariff-driven inflation fears might be behind markets too. Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation Kostin's work shows the S&P 500 typically will follow the soft data's return higher, even if hard economic data, like monthly jobs reports, continues to move lower. "S&P 500 returns are currently more correlated with soft data than hard data," wrote Kostin, who projects the S&P 500 will hit 6,500 in the next 12 months. "If the recovery in soft data is sustained, it should support equity returns even as hard data weaken." Citi equity strategist Scott Chronert boosted his S&P 500 target to 6,300 on Monday from a prior forecast of 5,800. Chronert, like other strategists, pointed out that peak tariff uncertainty has likely passed following the pause on duties between the US and China. With that headwind easing, Chronert pointed out that economic growth forecasts are no longer falling either. After tumbling to a recent bottom of 1.35% in early May, consensus is now projecting the US economy to grow at an annualized pace of 1.4% in 2025. Chronert and other strategists agree that the key risk moving forward would be that economic growth data slows more than consensus is now expecting. But barring that outcome, Chronert likes growth stocks such as Big Tech names amid a market environment that features elevated interest rates and high stock valuations. "Our growth preference continues for now as the AI theme regains momentum," Chronert wrote. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The bull case for stocks is growing as economic optimism increases
Wall Street strategists aren't scared of a summer slowdown for stocks despite some indications of a cooling labor market and slowing economic activity. In the past month, several strategists have defended their S&P 500 year-end targets in the range of 6,300 to 6,500, noting that the most dire outcomes from tariffs may no longer be on the table. On Monday, the benchmark index was trading around 6,010, about 2% from the record closing high. In a note titled "Don't fight it," Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson pointed out that a "moderate slowdown in growth" was likely already priced in earlier this year when the average S&P 500 stock fell nearly 30%. "In our experience, stocks and equity market internals move well ahead of lagging economic data and earnings results," Wilson said. To be clear, there are certainly signs of softening in economic data. Last week, ADP data showed that the private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest monthly total in more than two years. Weekly filings for unemployment claims hit their highest level since October 2024. And monthly nonfarm payroll revisions revealed 95,000 fewer jobs were added in March and April than initially thought. But the slowdown in this data has been widely expected. The equity research team at Goldman Sachs analyzed prior "event driven recessions" such as the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 1970s interest rate shock. Goldman's team, led by chief US equity strategist David Kostin, found that so-called soft economic data, which encapsulates data points like consumer surveys, usually hits its cycle bottom before hard economic data, like monthly readings on inflation or job additions, does. That's been playing out over the past month. In May, the Conference Board's future expectations index saw its largest monthly increase since May 2009. But data on Monday showed inflation expectations in the New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey moved lower in May for the first time this year, perhaps marking that the worst tariff-driven inflation fears might be behind markets too. Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation Kostin's work shows the S&P 500 typically will follow the soft data's return higher, even if hard economic data, like monthly jobs reports, continues to move lower. "S&P 500 returns are currently more correlated with soft data than hard data," wrote Kostin, who projects the S&P 500 will hit 6,500 in the next 12 months. "If the recovery in soft data is sustained, it should support equity returns even as hard data weaken." Citi equity strategist Scott Chronert boosted his S&P 500 target to 6,300 on Monday from a prior forecast of 5,800. Chronert, like other strategists, pointed out that peak tariff uncertainty has likely passed following the pause on duties between the US and China. With that headwind easing, Chronert pointed out that economic growth forecasts are no longer falling either. After tumbling to a recent bottom of 1.35% in early May, consensus is now projecting the US economy to grow at an annualized pace of 1.4% in 2025. Chronert and other strategists agree that the key risk moving forward would be that economic growth data slows more than consensus is now expecting. But barring that outcome, Chronert likes growth stocks such as Big Tech names amid a market environment that features elevated interest rates and high stock valuations. "Our growth preference continues for now as the AI theme regains momentum," Chronert wrote. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. 登入存取你的投資組合
CNBC
11 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
Citigroup joins chorus of Wall Street banks and hikes S&P 500 target
And Citigroup makes five in just one week. Citigroup raised its year-end S & P 500 target nearly 9%, to 6,300 from 5,800, implying that the market can rise another 5% from current levels. Strategist Scott Chronert noted that while "high policy volatility is likely to continue," market fundamentals appear to be solid. "No doubt, policy volatility is likely to persist as are numerous other risks. This keeps us reticent to chase rallies but more inclined to buy pullbacks," he said. "What the first half has told us is that fundamental volatility may be more manageable as tariffs, taxes, budget/deficit, rates, currency, geopolitics, etc. will all continue to remain in the financial news headlines." With this change, Chronert became the fifth sell-side strategist tracked by CNBC Pro to increase his 2025 S & P 500 forecast. Here are the other four target hikes in the past week. Lori Calvasina of RBC : to 5,730 from 5,550 Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank : to 6,550 from 6,150 Venu Krishna of Barclays : to 6,050 from 5,900 Dubravko Lakos-Bujas of JPMorgan : to 6,000 from 5,200 Those changes come as the Street grows less worried about rising trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries. On Monday, U.S. and Chinese officials were in London to discuss tariffs. "There will likely be posturing for threats of higher tariff rates on a country by country basis, as well as additional sectoral tariffs put in place, but we do not think this will produce the same shock/surprise that set off the April drawdown," Citi's Chronert wrote. "We saw evidence of this dynamic [last week] with no market reaction to steel and aluminum sectoral tariff rates being raised from 25% to 50%." "Trading moves aside, we expect investors will tend to look through shorter term policy noise in aggregate," he added.
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Citi Slashes S&P 500 Forecast as Trade Policy Uncertainty Rises
Citi strategist Scott Chronert revised his outlook for U.S. equities, reducing the 2025 year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,800 from a previous estimate of 6,500. He also decreased his earnings per share projection for the benchmark index to $255 from $270, citing increased market uncertainty tied to trade policy. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Sign with BAC. Chronert pointed to mounting unpredictability in tariff strategies, saying they threaten to unwind the trade framework established since China's 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization. The strategist added that optimism at the start of the year has given way to significant doubt. Citi's broader global equity team also downgraded U.S. stocks to Neutral from Outperform, warning that perceived market exceptionalism is losing momentum and that tariffs could disproportionately hurt corporate earnings. Meanwhile, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) reported first-quarter earnings that outperformed expectations. The bank posted GAAP earnings of $0.90 per share, exceeding analyst estimates by $0.08. Revenue climbed 6% year-over-year to $27.37 billion, supported by gains in both noninterest income and net interest income. Credit loss provisions totaled $1.5 billion, slightly above the $1.3 billion reported in the same quarter last year. Book value per common share increased 8% to $36.39, while tangible book value rose 9% to $27.12. Shares of Bank of America were up 1% in premarket trading. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
