Citigroup joins chorus of Wall Street banks and hikes S&P 500 target
And Citigroup makes five in just one week. Citigroup raised its year-end S & P 500 target nearly 9%, to 6,300 from 5,800, implying that the market can rise another 5% from current levels. Strategist Scott Chronert noted that while "high policy volatility is likely to continue," market fundamentals appear to be solid. "No doubt, policy volatility is likely to persist as are numerous other risks. This keeps us reticent to chase rallies but more inclined to buy pullbacks," he said. "What the first half has told us is that fundamental volatility may be more manageable as tariffs, taxes, budget/deficit, rates, currency, geopolitics, etc. will all continue to remain in the financial news headlines." With this change, Chronert became the fifth sell-side strategist tracked by CNBC Pro to increase his 2025 S & P 500 forecast. Here are the other four target hikes in the past week. Lori Calvasina of RBC : to 5,730 from 5,550 Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank : to 6,550 from 6,150 Venu Krishna of Barclays : to 6,050 from 5,900 Dubravko Lakos-Bujas of JPMorgan : to 6,000 from 5,200 Those changes come as the Street grows less worried about rising trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries. On Monday, U.S. and Chinese officials were in London to discuss tariffs. "There will likely be posturing for threats of higher tariff rates on a country by country basis, as well as additional sectoral tariffs put in place, but we do not think this will produce the same shock/surprise that set off the April drawdown," Citi's Chronert wrote. "We saw evidence of this dynamic [last week] with no market reaction to steel and aluminum sectoral tariff rates being raised from 25% to 50%." "Trading moves aside, we expect investors will tend to look through shorter term policy noise in aggregate," he added.
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Bitcoin's rally means all of Strategy's purchases are profitable
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Canadians are ditching holidaying in the US this summer as part of a backlash against Donald Trump's trade war. Just 10pc of Canadians plan to visit their southern neighbour this summer, compared to 23pc last year, according to a poll by Leger Marketing. It comes after official figures from Statistics Canada showed that the number of Canadians driving to the US dropped 35pc in April, while air travel fell 20pc. A substantial trade deal between the US and China is 'unlikely', an analyst has claimed, because so many of the key figures in the Trump administration are China hawks. Ian Bremmer, head of the geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group, said while a temporary truce was possible, there was little prospect for the bilateral relationship to become constructive. He pointed to the trend towards 'decoupling' from China and continued US pressure on other countries to take China out of their supply chains. He told clients: 'Everyone around Trump is still hawkish and so a breakthrough US-China trade deal is unlikely, especially in the context of other deals that are further along and prioritised.' US stocks are struggling for direction this afternoon as the world's largest economy began talks on trade with China that could help avoid a recession. The S&P 500 is flat, while the Nasdaq is up 0.4pc and the Dow is down 0.4pc. Hopes that President Donald Trump will lower his punitive tariffs on China another others are among the main reasons the S&P 500 has rallied back strongly since dropping roughly 20pc from its record two months ago. Huge sectors of the US economy rely on foreign labour face 'serious disruptions' as a result of Donald Trump's immigration crackdown, according to a top economist. 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Mr Trump continued the war of words on Friday when he claimed Mr Musk had 'lost his mind', despite officials claiming he was 'over' their public spat. The President continued the war of words on Friday when he claimed Mr Musk had 'lost his mind', despite officials claiming he was 'over' their public spat. Argus Research today downgraded Tesla's stock from buy to hold, saying the feud was emblematic of how the stock 'appears to be currently trading on non-fundamentals events'. Analysts said: 'Looking ahead, we are concerned that the war of words between President Trump and Elon Musk, along with expiration of EV credits, could further weaken demand for new Teslas.' Meanwhile, investment bank Baird downgraded its stock recommendation to neutral. Analyst Ben Kallo said: 'The recent incident between Musk and President Trump exemplifies key-person risk associated with Musk's political activities.' He added: 'Additionally, we believe this may heighten questions regarding brand damage, which we expect will persist until sustained evidence of volume growth avails itself.' The US wants China to agree a deal on rare earths during talks in London, according to one of Donald Trump's top officials. US economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the American team wanted a handshake from their counterparts rare earths after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping spoke last week. 'The purpose of the meeting today is to make sure that they're serious, but to literally get handshakes,' he told CNBC. He said the expectation was that immediately after any agreement, export controls would be eased and rare earths released in volume. Wall Street's main indexes edged higher as a fresh round of negotiations between the United States and China got under way in London. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 23.3 points, or 0.1pc, at the opening bell to 42,786.19. The S&P 500 rose 4.3 points, or 0.1pc, to 6,004.63, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 43.2 points, or 0.2pc, to 19,573.14. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent was pictured arriving for the trade talks with China at Lancaster House in London. China and the United States have begun a new round of trade talks in London, Beijing's state media reported. 'On June 9, local time, Vice Premier He Lifeng... began holding the first meeting of the China-US trade consultation mechanism with the American side in London,' state news agency Xinhua said. Government borrowing costs are edging higher ahead of an auction this week of US Treasuries which could indicate how confident investors are in the American economy. The US Treasury will auction $22bn of 30-year bonds on Thursday. Any sign of weak demand could push yields higher – and thus the cost of government borrowing. Treasury yields were flat today, while the 10-year UK gilt yield was last up one basis point to 4.65pc. Oxford Economics analyst John Canavan warned that borrowing costs could also be pushed up in the near future by strong US economic data, which could mean the Federal Reserve will delay cuts to interest rates. Bond yields could also rise over concerns about President Trump's 'one big beautiful bill' of tax cuts working its way through Congress, as well as from 'increased uncertainty in the face of President Trump's mercurial policy decisions'. Mr Canavan said: 'The 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions this week could potentially suffer from those factors, whichcould add to the near-term pressure on the long end. 'Slower economic growth and upward pressure on inflation over the next couple of quarters could add fuel to deficit fears, potentially creating a cycle of fiscal concerns increasing higher term premiums, which will increase Treasury rates, raising government funding costs, and increasing fiscal concerns again.' Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration will end the era of strong growth in the US economy, a Wall Street banking giant has warned. The US president's hard line on immigration will cause a 'swing from strength to weakness' in America's ability to attract new entrants to the labour market, analysts at JP Morgan said. Demonstrators protesting against federal immigration raids have clashed with police in Los Angeles since late last week, with President Trump ordering 2,000 members of the National Guard to the California city over the weekend. JP Morgan indicated the tightening of US immigration policy would 'weigh on the expansion' in the economy. Meanwhile, the 'uncertain' outlook for US trade policy would also define what happens in the second half of the year, with the effective tariff rate of nearly 15pc 'only just now taking full effect'. JP Morgan said the economy further faced hit from a decline in federal and local government spending, which is on track to grow at a reduced pace of 1pc, compared to 3.8pc over the last two years. JP Morgan chief economist Bruce Kasman said: 'A less appreciated slowdown in US government spending and tightening in immigration policy are set to weigh on the expansion.' He added: 'These policy shifts are largely a US story and are reflected in our forecast that a period of sustained above-potential US growth is over.' China's meeting with US officials in London comes as Beijing also launches discussions with other trading partners in a bid to build a united front to counter Donald Trump's tariffs. It has held talks with Japan and South Korea, and on Thursday it turned to Canada, with the two sides agreeing to regularise their channels of communication after a period of strained ties. Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and Chinese premier Li Qiang also discussed trade and the fentanyl crisis, Ottawa said. Beijing has also proposed establishing a 'green channel' to ease the export of rare earths to the European Union, and the fast-tracking approval of some export licences. China is expected to host a summit with the EU in July, marking 50 years since Beijing and Brussels established diplomatic ties. US stock index were subdued as investors looked ahead to the trade talks between the United States and China in London. Top officials from both countries will meet after Beijing and Washington accused each other of violating a preliminary agreement struck last month in Geneva that had briefly cooled tensions between the world's largest economies. The second-round of meetings comes four days after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping spoke by phone, their first direct interaction since Trump's January 20 inauguration. The benchmark S&P 500 closed above 6,000 on Friday for the first time since February 21, following a better-than-expected jobs report and a rebound in Tesla's shares. Hopes of more trade deals between the US and its major trading partners, along with upbeat earnings and tame inflation data, helped American stocks rally in May, with the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq notching their best monthly gains since November 2023. The S&P 500 remains a little over 2pc below all-time highs touched in February, while the Nasdaq is about 3pc below its record peaks reached in December. In premarket trading, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat, while the Nasdaq 100 was down 0.1pc. One of Wall Street's biggest banks has pushed back its forecasts for US interest rate cuts this year amid signs the American jobs markets is holding up better than expected. Citigroup said it expects the next US rate cut will happen in September rather than July after the stronger-than-expected May jobs report. Nonfarms payrolls grew by 139,000 in May, similar to the downwardly revised 147,000 in April and better than the 126,000 forecast. As a result, Citi said it expects the US Federal Reserve will only cut rates three times this year, compared to previous predictions of four cuts, in September, October and December. Money markets indicate there will be fewer than two reductions in borrowing costs in 2025. It comes after the Wall Street bank lifted its target for the benchmark S&P 500 stock index to 6,300 by the end of the year, up from 5,800 earlier. The benchmark S&P 500 index closed above 6,000 for the first time since late February on Friday amid a bounceback from Donald Trump's tariff onslaught. The US president has been urging the Fed to cut interest rates to boost the economy. An index tracking emerging market currencies hit a record high ahead of the US-China trade talks in London. The MSCI index of emerging market currencies was up 0.2pc at an all-time high as the dollar continued to weaken. Trading was subdued with several markets, such as Hungary, Romania, and Turkey, closed for public holidays. Meanwhile, a broad index for emerging market stocks jumped about 1pc to hit a more than three-year high. Global markets were pinning their hopes on the talks between representatives from Washington and Beijing in London on Monday, which could potentially improve growth worldwide. Oil prices have steadied after recent strong gains ahead of the latest US-China talks. Brent crude traded 0.2pc higher above $66 a barrel after jumping 4pc last week, while West Texas Intermediate was near $65. Negotiators from the US and China were poised to hold talks in London today, raising hopes that the world's two largest economies can de-escalate their trade war. Crude has retreated by 11pc this year over concerns that the trade tensions could hinder global growth, which could hamper demand for energy. At the same time, the Opec+ cartel of oil-producing nations has been ramping up production at a faster-than-anticipated pace, underpinning fears that there will be a glut of oil in the second half of this year. A semiconductor specialist is set to become the latest British company to quit the London stock market after agreeing to a $2.4bn (£1.8bn) takeover by an American rival. Alphawave IP Group said on Monday it was recommending shareholders to vote for a sale to US chip giant Qualcomm. The deal would mean the company, which only floated on the London Stock Exchange four years ago, would cease to be listed. It is a fresh blow to the City just days after Wise, the British financial technology champion, announced it was moving its main listing to New York. Global markets were mixed as investors waited to see the outcome of trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London. The FTSE 100 was little changed at 8,834.30, while the Cac 40 in Paris lost 0.2pc to 7,792.44 and Germany's Dax edged 0.4pc lower to 24,215.67. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were flat in premarket trading in New York. However, it was a different story in Asia as teams from the US and China prepared to conduct trade negotiations in London. In South Korea, the Kospi added 1.6pc to 2,855.77 and Chinese markets rose even though the government reported that exports slowed in May. Exports to the United States fell nearly 35pc in May and nearly 10pc in January-May in annual terms. China also reported that consumer prices fell 0.1pc in May from a year earlier, marking the fourth consecutive month of deflation. Hong Kong's Hang Seng picked up 1.6pc to 24,181.43, which was its highest level since March 21, while the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.4pc to 3,399.77. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gained 0.9pc to 38,088.57 as the government reported that the Japanese economy contracted by 0.2pc in the January-March quarter. China wants to deepen its relationship with Britain, its vice premier has said after a meeting with Rachel Reeves. He Lifeng met with the Chancellor in London today ahead of his talks with a US trade delegation in the capital. He called for deeper financial and economic cooperation with Britain, according to China Central Television. The vice premier also urged Britain and China to maintain a stable relationship. Ms Reeves said Britain 'attaches great importance to cooperation with China and is willing to strengthen communication', according to the CCTV report. China inflation dropped last month for the fourth time in a row, official data showed, adding to concerns about the world's second largest economy. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showing the consumer price index dropped 0.1pc in May. The reading, which was slightly better than expected but marks the fourth straight month of falling prices, comes as Beijing struggles to boost domestic consumption that has been sluggish since the end of the pandemic. The failure of leaders to kickstart demand threatens their official growth targets and complicates their ability to shield the economy from President Trump's tariff blitz. While deflation suggests the cost of goods is falling, it poses a threat to the broader economy as consumers tend to postpone purchases under such conditions in the hope of further reductions. The value of the dollar slipped against all major currencies ahead of the pivotal US-China trade talks. The pound was up 0.4pc against the greenback at $1.357 while the euro gained 0.3pc to $1.143. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets, said: 'A deal to keep talking might be better than nothing, but unless we see a concrete breakthrough, the impact on sentiment is likely to remain muted.' The dollar had been lifted on Friday after better than expected US employment figures, which indicated the American economy was doing better than expected. However, the US currency remains down more than 8.6pc against major currencies so far this year. China 'holds the upper hand' in the mining and processing of rare earths, which will be a focal point in the trade talks with the US in London. The materials are crucial for not only cars but also a range of other products from robots to military equipment. The Chinese government started requiring producers to obtain a licence to export seven rare earth elements in April. Resulting shortages sent prompted fears among some car makers that they would have to halt production. President Trump, without mentioning rare earths specifically, took to social media to attack China at the end of last month, accusing it of violating its trade deal made in Geneva. The Chinese government indicated Saturday that it is addressing the concerns, which have come from European companies as well. A Commerce Ministry statement said it had granted some approvals and 'will continue to strengthen the approval of applications that comply with regulations.' The scramble to resolve the rare earth issue shows that China has a strong card to play if it wants to strike back against tariffs or other measures. Richard Hunter, an analyst at Interactive Investor, said: 'Despite the President's previous rhetoric, there seems to be some possibility that some of this aggression will be dialled back, not least of which since China has an upper hand especially with regard to its near monopoly on rare earth minerals which are so vital for components in the high-tech industry. 'China may also be keen on conciliation since there are further signs that its economy is struggling to fend off the tariff pressures so far.' The cost of government borrowing edged lower in Britain ahead of the talks between top US and Chinese trade officials in London. The yield on 10-year UK gilts – a benchmark for the cost of servicing the national debt – declined two basis points to 4.62pc on bond markets. Yields were also lower across the eurozone after the European Central Bank last week cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 2pc, as expected. Germany's 10-year bund yield was down nearly three basis points to 2.54pc. The FTSE 100 opened slightly higher as the US and China prepare to hold trade talks in London. The UK's blue-chip stock index climbed 0.1pc to 8,845.73 while the mid-cap FTSE 250 was flat at 21,159.10. Donald Trump said the talks in London 'should go very well'. The negotiations come just a few days after the US president and Xi Jinping finally held their first publicly announced telephone talks since the Republican returned to the White House. Trump said the call, which took place on Thursday, had reached a 'very positive conclusion.' Xi was quoted by state-run news agency Xinhua as saying that 'correcting the course of the big ship of Sino-US relations requires us to steer well and set the direction'. The call came after tensions between the world's two biggest economies had soared, with Trump accusing Beijing of violating a tariff de-escalation deal reached in Geneva in mid-May. Mr Trump's press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, told Fox News on Sunday: 'We want China and the United States to continue moving forward with the agreement that was struck in Geneva.' China's export growth slowed to a three-month low in May as US tariffs hit shipments. Total exports from the world's second largest economy expanded by 4.8pc year-on-year last month, down from 8.1pc in April and below analyst expectations of 5pc, according to customs data. China's exports to the US plunged by 34.5pc in the sharpest drop since the outbreak of the Covid pandemic in February 2020. Imports dropped 3.4pc, deepening sharply from the 0.2pc decline in April, despite the trade deal agreed between Beijing and Washington in Geneva at the start of last month. Zichun Huang of Capital Economics said: 'The slowdown in export growth in May should partially reverse this month, as it reflects the drop in US orders before the trade truce, which took time to feed through to actual shipments. 'But with tariffs likely to remain elevated and Chinese manufacturers facing broader constraints on their ability to sustain rapid gains in global market share, we think export growth will slow further by year-end.' Top US and Chinese officials will sit down in London today for talks aimed at defusing the high-stakes trade dispute between the two superpowers. Their trade war has deepened in recent weeks beyond tit-for-tat tariffs to export controls over goods and components critical to global supply chains. At a still-undisclosed venue in London, the two sides will try to get back on track with a preliminary agreement struck last month in Geneva. The US delegation will be led by treasury secretary Scott Bessent, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and US trade representative Jamieson Greer. The Chinese contingent will be helmed by vice premier He Lifeng. A UK Government spokesman said: 'The next round of trade talks between the US and China will be held in the UK on Monday. 'We are a nation that champions free trade and have always been clear that a trade war is in nobody's interests, so we welcome these talks.' Investors in Europe appear more sceptical about the prospects of the US-China trade talks kicking off in London today. The FTSE 100, France's Cac 40 and Germany's Dax are all on track to open flat when trading gets underway later. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said: 'Asian stocks are rallying at the start of the week; however, European equity futures and US futures are taking a breather and are pointing to a slightly lower open later today.' She added: 'Stocks may need a new driver to extend last week's rally after investors scaled back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates cuts for this year. There are less than two cuts priced in by the Fed Fund Futures market by the end of this year. 'The number of rate cuts from the Fed could be determined by the outlook for US inflation, which is released later this week. As the growth data remain unaffected by tariffs for now, inflation could hold the key for US monetary policy.' Thanks for joining me. Stock markets jumped in Asia ahead of US-China trade talks due to get under way in Britain today. Shares were up from Hong Kong to Tokyo following a call late last week between US president Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Representatives from the world's two largest economies are due to meet at a still undisclosed location in London in an attempt to revive a preliminary trade agreement reached in Geneva last month. The US delegation will be led by treasury secretary Scott Bessent, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and US trade representative Jamieson Greer. The Chinese contingent will be helmed by vice premier He Lifeng. Relations soured earlier this month after President Trump accused China of violating the terms of the deal. 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Shares rose in Asia ahead of the second round of trade talks between Washington and Beijing, due later today in London. In South Korea, the Kospi added 1.9pc to 2,865.52. Chinese markets rose even though the government reported that exports slowed in May, growing 4.8pc from a year earlier after a jump of more than 8pc in April. Exports to the United States fell nearly 10pc compared with a year earlier. China also reported that consumer prices fell 0.1pc in May from a year earlier, marking the fourth consecutive month of deflation. Hong Kong's Hang Seng picked up 1.4pc to 24,119.64 while the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.4pc to 3,397.13. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gained 1.1pc to 38,137.09 as the government reported that the Japanese economy contracted by 0.2pc in the January-March quarter. Australia's market was closed for a public holiday. On Friday, stocks gained ground on Wall Street following a better-than-expected report on the US job market. The gains were broad, with every sector in the S&P 500 rising. That solidified a second consecutive winning week for the benchmark index, which has rallied back from a slump two months ago to come within striking distance of its record high. The S&P 500 rose 1pc to 6,000.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1pc to 42,762.87 while the Nasdaq gained 1.2pc, to 19,529.95. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
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- Yahoo
Bitcoin's Rally Means All of Strategy's Purchases Are Profitable
(Bloomberg) -- The mini rally in Bitcoin over the past few trading sessions has made every purchase of the cryptocurrency by Michael Saylor's Strategy over the last four plus years profitable. Next Stop: Rancho Cucamonga! Where Public Transit Systems Are Bouncing Back Around the World Trump Said He Fired the National Portrait Gallery Director. She's Still There. US Housing Agency Vulnerable to Fraud After DOGE Cuts, Documents Warn Senator Calls for Closing Troubled ICE Detention Facility in New Mexico The former MicroStrategy Inc. announced earlier Monday that it had acquired an additional 1,045 tokens for $110.2 million from June 2 to June 8, or for an average price of $105,426 each. Bitcoin was up about 1.7% to $108,022 as of 12:39 p.m. in New York, and has climbed around 7.5% since June 5. Strategy has made around 70 separate purchase announcements since Saylor began to invest cash from the enterprise software maker's balance sheet into Bitcoin in the middle of 2020. That includes 15 purchases of $1 billion or more of Bitcoin, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. As the price of Bitcoin fluctuated over the years, many of the purchases were periodically under water. Saylor, who co-founded the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based firm and and serves as executive chairman, later begin selling common shares as well as preferred stock and debt to fund additional purchases. Strategy owns 582,000 Bitcoin, valued at about $62.9 billion, The overall average price per token is $70,086. The latest purchases were made with $112 million in net proceeds from the sale of the company's Strike preferred stock (STRK) and Strife preferred stock (STRF), according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Last week, Strategy sold another class of securities, called Perpetual Stride Preferred Stock, (STRD). The firm estimated it will realize net proceeds of about $979.7 million from the offering. The top 26 purchase announcements based on the average cost of Bitcoin have all happened in the last 12 months, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. Strategy is the leading corporate holder of the digital currency. Saylor has pledged to raise $84 billion in equity and debt. The Strategy playbook has inspired many copycats looking to share the same success from purchasing and holding cryptocurrencies to boost their share prices. Companies such as Mara, Gamestop, Semler and Trump Media have all announced plans to use cash to buy the cryptocurrency, but none have been able to replicate the successes Saylor's company enjoys. Shares of Strategy rose about 3.4% to $387.30 on Monday, and are up over 3,000% since July 2020. The S&P 500 Index has climbed around 93% during the same period, while Bitcoin has rallied about 1,060%. --With assistance from Tom Contiliano. The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again New Grads Join Worst Entry-Level Job Market in Years What America's Pizza Economy Is Telling Us About the Real One America Cast Itself as the World's Moral Leader. Not Anymore ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
