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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Circana's 2025/2026 Food and Beverage Outlook Predicts Slow Growth Amid Shifting Consumer Priorities
Chicago, Aug. 14, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Circana LLC today released new Circana Compass insights, providing a detailed review of 2025 global retail food and beverage (F&B) industry performance and a forward-looking outlook for 2026. 2025 Global Trends Confirm Projections Circana's 2024 projection anticipated U.S. F&B industry dollar sales growth between 2% and 4% for 2025, driven by price/mix increases of 1.5% to 3.5%, and volume growth ranging from 0% to 1%. Current estimates align closely, with anticipated dollar sales growth at 3.2%, price/mix at 3%, and volume gains at 0.2%, demonstrating Circana's accuracy of earlier forecasts and valuable guidance for industry stakeholders as they navigate the remainder of the year and plan for 2026. While rising prices of select commodities, such as cocoa and coffee, have pushed up retail F&B price growth in 2025, price growth in other F&B areas remains more moderate. Retail volumes continue to grow, albeit at a tighter rate than in 2024. The EMEA region is similarly trending in line with Circana's expectations: Expect 2025 full-year growth to reach +4% in value. F&B sales in this market are fueled by heightened demand for private-label brands, which now represent 41% of F&B sales despite fewer promotions. APAC market performance is also tracking in line with forecasts, showing +3.7% growth in value up to mid-year. Unit growth of +1.4% supports Circana's expectation that price stabilization would drive unit acceleration in 2025, reaching +1.6% by year end. Although consumer confidence momentum stalled slightly more than anticipated at the time of the forecast, core macroeconomic indicators — particularly in the Australian economy — are improving as anticipated. The second half of 2025 is expected to see a shift toward less trading down and more trading up, as household budgets benefit from the combined effects of stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies. 2026 U.S. Projections During the past five years, compounded inflation has driven a cumulative 34% rise in average retail F&B prices. Looking ahead, Circana forecasts U.S. F&B price/mix growth of 3% to 5% in 2026, shaped by ongoing cost pressures, competitive retail pricing, and strategic promotional activity. However, volume growth is expected to remain tight, estimated at -1% to 1%, as consumers adopt more value-driven and multifunctional eating habits. These dynamics suggest dollar sales growth will range from 3% to 5%, indicating continued sector resilience. 'We've observed slowing volume growth in the first half of 2025, with a modest increase of 0.4%,' said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor for Circana. 'Consumers are prioritizing in-home food and beverage spending while redefining 'value' with an emphasis on convenience and functionality. With these evolving behaviors, the CPG industry must strategically identify ways to stimulate demand and remain profitable. Circana continues to provide the data-driven insights necessary to guide these decisions.' Key Factors Shaping the Industry Circana highlights three pivotal drivers for 2026 and beyond: value, health, and demographic shifts. Value remains increasingly personalized but consistently favors mass, club, and value retailers. E-commerce continues to grow, propelled by advancements from the largest retailers. Health-conscious behaviors also are reshaping the market. Consumers are prioritizing higher-protein diets, reducing alcohol and snack consumption, and seeking out products with premium, health-driven ingredients. Meanwhile, tighter budgets among low-income and Hispanic households, coupled with demographic changes like declining birth rates and slower immigration trends, are influencing broader category performance. About CircanaCircana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana's predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana's Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy. Learn more at CONTACT: Shelley Hughes Circana +1 312-731-1782 nel recupero dei dati Effettua l'accesso per consultare il tuo portafoglio Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati
Associated Press
26-03-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
Circana Announces Top 50 U.S. Restaurants for 2025
Circana LLC, the leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior, today released its 2025 Definitive U.S. Restaurant Ranking Report, offering an in-depth look at the brands shaping the future of the restaurant industry as well as insights on consumer spending trends, key growth drivers, and category performance. In 2024, consumer spending increased by 2%, marking the fourth consecutive year of growth. Remarkably, consumers collectively spent $1 million at restaurants every minute in 2024, with nearly every person in the country dining at one of the top 50 restaurants during the year. The prevailing theme of 2024 was value, driven by persistently high inflation. Many chains began offering meal deals midway through the year, and this value competition is expected to continue into 2025. Notably, 20 of the top 50 restaurants provided a value meal deal in 2024, achieving varying degrees of success. 'As the industry moves forward, value will remain a crucial strategy, although the most effective approaches will extend beyond mere pricing,' said David Portalatin, senior vice president and food industry advisor for Circana. 'For instance, nostalgia has emerged as a compelling tactic that consistently drives traffic gains for restaurants and will be a trend that we continue to watch.' To qualify for the Top 50, a restaurant must achieve annual consumer spending exceeding $1.35 billion. Collectively, the top 50 restaurants account for 61% of the entire restaurant industry's spending, despite representing only 24% of all restaurant locations. Among the top 50, 34 are quick-service restaurants (QSRs), 11 are casual dining establishments, and five are midscale chains. The QSR hamburger category is the most prominent, featuring 10 chains. However, it was the QSR chicken chains that demonstrated the strongest performance in 2024. In terms of growth, 28 of the top 50 restaurants experienced dollar sales growth in 2024, while 31 saw an increase in locations. The top 10 restaurants are all QSRs, with Olive Garden recognized as the largest casual dining chain and IHOP leading the midscale category. The top three restaurants—McDonald's, Starbucks and Chick-fil-A—stand out significantly, collectively generating over $100 billion, which accounts for 32% of the top 50's total dollar sales. Learn more about the 2025 Definitive U.S. Restaurant Ranking Report. Methodology The Definitive Restaurant Ranking leverages multiple data products and services from Circana's unmatched research product portfolio combined with experienced analyst estimates. Sales estimates represent each chain's total U.S. system for the year ending December 2023. They are anchored on CREST®, Circana's flagship, syndicated study of consumer purchases of restaurant-prepared meals, snacks and beverages. Unit counts are sourced from the Fall 2023 release of Circana's ReCount® service, a census of chains and independent restaurant locations that has been regularly updated since 1988. Today, ReCount provides unit counts and trends for over 1.2 million foodservice operators. Annual buyer penetration and average annual purchase frequency for the year ending December 2023 are sourced from Checkout, Circana's gold standard longitudinal consumer panel tracking behavior of the same consumers over time. These primary sources and other proprietary Circana data, public reporting, and Circana analysis generate this new industry standard restaurant ranking. About Circana Circana is the leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. Through unparalleled technology, advanced analytics, cross-industry data, and deep expertise, we provide clarity that helps almost 7,000 of the world's leading brands and retailers take action and unlock business growth. We understand more about the complete consumer, the complete store, and the complete wallet so our clients can go beyond the data to apply insights, ignite innovation, meet consumer demand, and outpace the competition. Learn more at
