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New Statesman
3 hours ago
- Politics
- New Statesman
What the world gets wrong about Poland's election
As the country heads to the polls for the second round of voting today (1 June), Poland is torn by two very different presidential candidates – the pro-European liberal Rafał Trzaskowski and the right-wing nationalist Karol Nawrocki. It's impossible to predict who might win. It is also increasingly difficult to ignore the growing disillusionment that Poles feel toward politics. Trzaskowski, who belongs to the Civic Coalition party and narrowly won the most votes in the first round of voting on 18 May, has been a firm supporter of the European Union and the strengthening of foreign ties. Though this position delights Poland's neighbours and the West, the sentiment is not shared by a large proportion of the electorate who have been sceptical of pro-EU candidates in the past (including current prime minister Donald Tusk). Such candidates tend to be branded pro-German and mocked at rallies as elitist or anti-Polish. The liberal mayor of Warsaw, Trzaskowski's support comes from the metropolitan-based, younger, professional classes. Yet his critics accuse him of selling out the country's sovereignty and undermining the Polish traditions and values that are closely linked to the Catholic church. In contrast to Trzaskowski, the nationalist historian Nawrocki has no political experience, despite being backed by the right-wing Law and Justice Party, which lost power under Donald Tusk's coalition. He's expressed admiration for Donald Trump's Maga agenda and currently heads the Institute of National Remembrance which embraces nationalist historical narratives — they reject Poland's involvement in the Holocaust under Nazi occupation, for example — and opposes publication of 'false information' that 'dishonours or harms the Polish nation'. His anti-Russian views combined with his pledge to block Ukraine's accession to Nato appeals to Trzaskowski's critics and could capture the votes that were cast for far-right politician Sławomir Mentzen in the first round of voting. Yet a shared beer between Mentzen and Trzaskowski, organised as part of Mentzen's YouTube coverage of the election, is thought to have shifted the support of the far-right politician's voters towards the mayor of Warsaw. Nawrocki hasn't expressed a strong position on many of the country's most pressing issues, like the predicted 289-billion-złoty (£57 billion) deficit for 2025 or immigration. Many of his opinions on topics like education and abortion mirror those of the Law and Justice party. Despite Trzaskowski narrowly winning the first round, it's impossible to say who will win the second vote. The final presidential debate, hosted by right-leaning Republika TV, took place on 28 May in the town of Końskie, though Trzaskowski made the bold move not to appear. (Trzaskowski lost in the 2020 election to Andrzej Duda after not turning up to the debate in Końskie; soon after the debate, Trzaskowski plummeted in the polls.) With both candidates neck-in-neck in the polls, the Polish media can't decide whether Trzaskowski has once again lost his shot at presidency, or whether he will break through the 'curse of Końskie'. In many ways, the real momentum in this election campaign has come from abroad. A record number of 695,000 expats are registered to vote on 1 June, perhaps motivated by the fact that in Poland, presidents have a formal role in foreign and defence policies. A Trzaskowski win could establish Poland as a key player on the European stage and, as a Tusk ally, he could also aid the prime minister's progressive reform. A Nawrocki win, meanwhile, could lead to the disengagement with the European Union on all matters excluding trade and potentially block Ukraine's ascension into Nato. His stance on Poland reaching Net Zero by 2050 will also have an impact on the EU's climate change policies. Yet this international excitement barely ripples over the Polish public. The truth is, neither candidate is likely to have a ground-shaking impact on the lives of the electorate. A Trzaskowski win would likely bring with it an initial burst of hope, which is almost certain to grow into disillusionment over his often-contradictory positions on the LGBTQ rights, immigration and healthcare. A Nawrocki win, on the other hand, would likely isolate younger, progressive voters by prioritising the country's frustrated right-wing. Nawrocki's victory could cause a further spike in emigration among young people — already a long-running problem in Poland — as the historian looks to hinder Donald Tusk's progressive agenda. Neither candidate presents solutions to the most pressing issues that divide the country, such as the influx of migrants crossing the Poland-Belarus border, the continuing war in Ukraine and inflation. It's no surprise that turn out is now predicted to be just over 50 per cent in the second round. Rather than uniting, the political promises of this election campaign have only disillusioned the country more. [See also: Sanction Netanyahu's cabinet ultras now] Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe Related
TimesLIVE
4 hours ago
- Politics
- TimesLIVE
Pro-EU and MAGA visions clash in Poland's closely fought presidential runoff
Poland holds a knife-edge presidential election on Sunday which will determine whether the largest country in the EU's eastern wing cements its place in the bloc's mainstream or turns towards MAGA-style nationalism. Turnout holds the key to the contest between Rafal Trzaskowski of ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO), who holds a narrow lead, and Karol Nawrocki, backed by nationalists Law and Justice (PiS). Parliament holds most power in Poland but the president can veto legislation so the vote is being watched closely in neighbouring Ukraine, as well as in Russia, the US and across the EU. Both candidates agree on the need to spend heavily on defence, as US President Donald Trump is demanding from Europe, and to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia's three-year-old invasion. But while Trzaskowski sees Ukraine's future membership of Nato as essential for Poland's security, Nawrocki has recently said he would not ratify it as president as this could draw the alliance into a war with Russia. Trzaskowski says strong relations with both Brussels and Washington are essential for Poland's security, but Nawrocki, who met Trump in the White House in May, prioritises relations with the US. If Nawrocki wins, he is likely to follow a similar path to President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally who has used his veto power to block the government's efforts to undo the previous PiS administration's judicial reforms which the EU says undermined the independence of the courts. Coming about a year-and-a half since Prime Minister Donald Tusk took office, the vote provides the stiffest test yet of support for his broad coalition government, with Nawrocki presenting the ballot as a referendum on its actions. Voting begins at 7am and is due to end at 9pm, with exit polls published soon afterwards. The electoral commission says it hopes final results will be announced on Monday morning or early afternoon. Opinion polls show that the difference between the candidates is within the margin of error. In 2023, huge queues outside polling stations in large cities forced some to stay open later than planned. Analysts said that high participation by younger, liberal, urban Poles was crucial in securing a majority for Tusk. Trzaskowski is hoping that such scenes will be repeated on Sunday. 'Encourage everyone, so that as many Poles as possible vote in the presidential election,' he told a rally in Wloclawek, central Poland, on Friday. Nawrocki, who draws inspiration from US President Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, told supporters in Biala Podlaska in the country's east that 'these elections could be decided by single votes'. The two candidates also differ on social issues, with Trzaskowski favouring the liberalisation of abortion laws and introduction of civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ couples, while Nawrocki says predominantly Catholic Poland should reject such moves. The first round of the election on May 18 saw a surge in support for the anti-establishment far-right, suggesting that the KO-PiS duopoly that has dominated Polish politics for a generation may be starting to fracture. Nevertheless, after a tumultuous campaign in which Nawrocki in particular faced a slew of negative media reports about his alleged past conduct, once again candidates representing the two main parties are facing off in the second round. PiS has traditionally enjoyed high support in small towns and rural areas, especially in the south and east. These areas are typically more socially conservative than larger cities and poorer, creating a sense of exclusion that PiS has tapped into. 'They want to build a Poland for the elites,' Nawrocki told voters in Biala Podlaska, referring to his opponents from KO. 'I am simply one of you, I am a citizen of the Polish state who has travelled a long road to be able to today face a person who is the creation of a political laboratory!' KO, meanwhile, campaigns on a pro-European centrist agenda that appeals to more liberal-minded Poles who mainly live in cities or bigger towns. Trzaskowski took heart from the turnout at a rally in Ciechanow, central Poland. 'Looking at this mobilisation, I see how much hope you have — hope in a future in which Poland plays a leading role in the EU,' he said.
The Sun
6 hours ago
- Politics
- The Sun
Nawrocki: Nationalist historian vying for Polish presidency
WARSAW: Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian who has written about the criminal underworld, heads into Sunday's presidential run-off tied with his opponent, pro-EU Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. Nawrocki has been endorsed by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023. The party is closely allied with outgoing President Andrzej Duda -- who has publicly backed Nawrocki -- and is a long-standing rival of the ruling Civic Coalition. Nawrocki campaigned under the slogan 'Poland first, Poles first'. While he has pledged to continue Poland's support for neighbouring Ukraine against Russia's invasion, he has denounced the benefits given to war refugees. He said in a campaign video in April that 'social benefits will be above all for Poles' and that 'in queues for doctors and clinics, Polish citizens must have priority'. In May, he claimed Ukraine 'has not shown gratitude for what Poles have done' and accused President Volodymyr Zelensky of 'insolence'. He opposes Ukraine's bid to join NATO. - Photos with Trump - Nawrocki is an admirer of Donald Trump and has said Poland should focus on shaping and leading Europe's relations with the US president. Nawrocki met Trump at the White House in May and claimed Trump had told him: 'You will win'. Some lawmakers from the governing coalition have accused Trump of election interference. US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem also endorsed Nawrocki when she attended a conservative conference in Poland, saying: 'He needs to be the next president.' Nawrocki has called for controls on the border with Germany to keep out migrants, and would like Berlin to pay wartime reparations to Poland. While wooing voters ahead of the razor-edge run-off, Nawrocki signed an eight-point pledge prepared by far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen. The election campaign saw Nawrocki embroiled in a series of scandals. While arguing against a property tax, he claimed to only own one flat. Later it was revealed he had acquired a second one through a convoluted deal with an elderly man. A bombshell news report also alleged he had arranged prostitutes for guests while working as a hotel security guard. Nawrocki called the accusations 'a bunch of lies' and said he would sue the news site. Born in the Baltic port city of Gdansk, Nawrocki boxed and played football in his youth before earning a PhD in history and an MBA. He served as the director of the World War II museum in Gdansk from 2017 to 2021. Since then, he has led the Institute of National Remembrance, which investigates Nazi and communist-era crimes. His research focuses on Poland's anti-communist opposition, organised crime during the communist era and sports history. Last year, Russia added Nawrocki to its wanted list for his alleged efforts to remove Soviet-era monuments in Poland. Nawrocki said he obtained a gun licence and firearm after winding up in Russia's crosshairs. - Dual identity - Nawrocki has written several books, including one under a pen name that landed him in an unusual controversy. In 2018, he secretly published a book about the communist-era gangster Nikodem Skotarczak using the pseudonym Tadeusz Batyr. That same year, a blurred and voice-altered 'Batyr' appeared on state television claiming Nawrocki had inspired the book. Nawrocki later wrote on social media that Batyr had sought his advice and 'thanked me with an interesting book, which I recommend'. But local media recently uncovered that Batyr and Nawrocki were one and the same. One TikTok user said: 'Maybe they'll substitute Batyr for Nawrocki in the runoff. In any case, the one backs the other. That's two votes already.' Political opponents seized on the revelation. Nawrocki has also faced accusations of ties to gangsters and neo-Nazis, which he has rejected as 'deep manipulation', insisting his contacts were for professional purposes. 'No one has ever heard a good word from me about Nazism,' he said. Nawrocki speaks English and still boxes in his spare time. He has said Poland needs 'a strong president for tough times'. He lives with his wife, Marta, and has two children and an adult stepson.
The Sun
6 hours ago
- Politics
- The Sun
Trzaskowski: pro-EU polyglot eyeing Polish presidency
WARSAW: Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, running neck-and-neck with his nationalist rival ahead of Poland's presidential runoff, is an avowed Europhile pledging to relax abortion laws and protect LGBTQ rights. Trzaskowski narrowly won the first round of voting on May 18, polling 31 percent against 30 percent for Karol Nawrocki, a historian backed by the conservative opposition. 'I promise you that I will be a president who unites, who is ready to talk to everyone,' Trzaskowski promised a crowd of supporters as he rallied for support a week before the runoff. A former deputy foreign minister, the 53-year-old is also the son of a jazz pioneer and great-grandson of the man who created Poland's first secondary schools for girls. Trzaskowski is backed by the governing Civic Coalition party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and will face off against Nawrocki, the Law and Justice candidate. Trzaskowski narrowly lost his first presidential bid in 2020 to the conservative Andrzej Duda, who backs Nawrocki. - Early start - Trzaskowski comes from an intellectual Warsaw family. His father Andrzej was a famous pianist during the 1950s, when jazz was considered the music of the 'enemy' under the Iron Curtain. Trzaskowski himself started out in politics in a seismic year for the former Soviet bloc -- 1989, when the Berlin Wall came down. A teenager at the time, he quit school and worked as a volunteer campaigning during the first free elections in Poland, which marked the end of the communist era. He graduated from the University of Warsaw, where he later earned a doctorate with a thesis on EU reform. He has also studied in Oxford and Paris, and at the College of Europe outside Warsaw. He speaks English, French, Italian, Russian and Spanish and worked for a time as an English teacher. As a Francophile, he has even earned the nickname 'Bonjour', or hello in French -- a jab from critics who view Trzaskowski as elitist. In 2000, he worked on Poland's accession to the European Union, then became an adviser to the Civic Platform delegation in the European Parliament. He became an EU lawmaker in 2009, and in 2013 joined an earlier government led by Tusk, who went on to become president of the European Council. Trzaskowski first served as technology minister and then deputy foreign minister. As a member of the Polish parliament between 2015 and 2018, he was elected vice president of the European People's Party in 2017. Trzaskowski was elected mayor of Warsaw in 2018 and re-elected in 2024, but critics say he has failed to do enough while in office. - 'Absurd' - Trzaskowski, who is married with two children, has vowed to campaign for women's rights and legalise abortion in the predominantly Catholic country, which has a near-total ban on the procedure. In March, on International Women's Day, he promised to ensure that 'this medieval anti-abortion law becomes a thing of the past'. He has said he would back measures to allow abortion until the 12th week -- a move pledged by the Civic Coalition, which has yet to vote the changes through in parliament. On LGBTQ rights, another hot-button issue in Poland, Trzaskowski has said he backed the idea of civil unions, including for same-sex couples. The European Court of Human Rights has condemned Poland for refusing to recognise and protect same-sex couples, who cannot marry or register their partnerships. In an election debate in April, Trzaskowski said it was 'completely absurd that two people... who are together their whole lives, cannot visit each other in the hospital or inherit from one another'. When he was elected Warsaw mayor, he signed an 'LGBT+ Declaration' promising to protect gay people, angering the country's right-wing nationalists, who campaign against a perceived 'LGBT ideology'. But as he tried to woo voters from across the political spectrum ahead of the runoff, he was photographed chatting over pints with far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen. In a Facebook post he once described his love of old books and stated that he had smoked marijuana in his youth but only 'rarely'. He owns a French bulldog named Babel ('Bubble'), with whom he frequently poses for photos.
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- General
- Yahoo
Trzaskowski: pro-EU polyglot eyeing Polish presidency
Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, running neck-and-neck with his nationalist rival ahead of Poland's presidential runoff, is an avowed Europhile pledging to relax abortion laws and protect LGBTQ rights. Trzaskowski narrowly won the first round of voting on May 18, polling 31 percent against 30 percent for Karol Nawrocki, a historian backed by the conservative opposition. "I promise you that I will be a president who unites, who is ready to talk to everyone," Trzaskowski promised a crowd of supporters as he rallied for support a week before the runoff. A former deputy foreign minister, the 53-year-old is also the son of a jazz pioneer and great-grandson of the man who created Poland's first secondary schools for girls. Trzaskowski is backed by the governing Civic Coalition party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and will face off against Nawrocki, the Law and Justice candidate. Trzaskowski narrowly lost his first presidential bid in 2020 to the conservative Andrzej Duda, who backs Nawrocki. - Early start - Trzaskowski comes from an intellectual Warsaw family. His father Andrzej was a famous pianist during the 1950s, when jazz was considered the music of the "enemy" under the Iron Curtain. Trzaskowski himself started out in politics in a seismic year for the former Soviet bloc -- 1989, when the Berlin Wall came down. A teenager at the time, he quit school and worked as a volunteer campaigning during the first free elections in Poland, which marked the end of the communist era. He graduated from the University of Warsaw, where he later earned a doctorate with a thesis on EU reform. He has also studied in Oxford and Paris, and at the College of Europe outside Warsaw. He speaks English, French, Italian, Russian and Spanish and worked for a time as an English teacher. As a Francophile, he has even earned the nickname "Bonjour", or hello in French -- a jab from critics who view Trzaskowski as elitist. In 2000, he worked on Poland's accession to the European Union, then became an adviser to the Civic Platform delegation in the European Parliament. He became an EU lawmaker in 2009, and in 2013 joined an earlier government led by Tusk, who went on to become president of the European Council. Trzaskowski first served as technology minister and then deputy foreign minister. As a member of the Polish parliament between 2015 and 2018, he was elected vice president of the European People's Party in 2017. Trzaskowski was elected mayor of Warsaw in 2018 and re-elected in 2024, but critics say he has failed to do enough while in office. - 'Absurd' - Trzaskowski, who is married with two children, has vowed to campaign for women's rights and legalise abortion in the predominantly Catholic country, which has a near-total ban on the procedure. In March, on International Women's Day, he promised to ensure that "this medieval anti-abortion law becomes a thing of the past". He has said he would back measures to allow abortion until the 12th week -- a move pledged by the Civic Coalition, which has yet to vote the changes through in parliament. On LGBTQ rights, another hot-button issue in Poland, Trzaskowski has said he backed the idea of civil unions, including for same-sex couples. The European Court of Human Rights has condemned Poland for refusing to recognise and protect same-sex couples, who cannot marry or register their partnerships. In an election debate in April, Trzaskowski said it was "completely absurd that two people... who are together their whole lives, cannot visit each other in the hospital or inherit from one another". When he was elected Warsaw mayor, he signed an "LGBT+ Declaration" promising to protect gay people, angering the country's right-wing nationalists, who campaign against a perceived "LGBT ideology". But as he tried to woo voters from across the political spectrum ahead of the runoff, he was photographed chatting over pints with far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen. In a Facebook post he once described his love of old books and stated that he had smoked marijuana in his youth but only "rarely". He owns a French bulldog named Babel ("Bubble"), with whom he frequently poses for photos. bur-mmp/amj/srg/lb
