Latest news with #ClareHeaviside
Ammon
4 days ago
- Health
- Ammon
Extreme heat could lead to 30,000 deaths a year in UK by 2070
Ammon News - More than 30,000 people a year in England and Wales could die from heat-related causes by the 2070s, scientists have warned. A new study calculates that heat mortality could rise more than fiftyfold in 50 years because of climate heating. Researchers at UCL and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine compared different potential scenarios, looking at levels of warming, measures to mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis, regional climatic differences and potential power outages. They also modelled the ageing population. Between 1981 and 2021, there were on average 634 heat-related deaths in England and Wales a year. The research, published in PLoS Climate, found that – in the worst-case scenario of 4.3C of warming by the end of the century and assuming minimal adaptation to mitigate the effects – heat-related deaths would increase sixteenfold to 10,317 in the 2050s, and would exceed 34,000 by the 2070s. Even if temperature rises are limited to 1.6C of warming over preindustrial levels and high levels of adaptation are put in place, annual heat-related deaths will still increase up to sixfold by the 2070s. The record-setting hot summer of 2022 – when temperatures reached 40.3C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire – had 2,985 excess heat deaths, indicating a potential 'new normal' by as early as the 2050s, the research concluded. The findings come as the UK Health Security Agency issued a yellow heat health alert for all regions from Thursday 10 July until Tuesday 15 July. Temperatures were expected to reach 27-29C in large parts of England and Wales on Thursday, with hotter weather of up to 31-33C forecast for the weekend. Dr Clare Heaviside, a senior author at UCL Bartlett School Environment, Energy & Resources, said the findings painted 'a sobering picture of the consequences of climate change'. 'Over the next 50 years,' she said, 'the health impacts of a warming climate are going to be significant. We can mitigate their severity by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and with carefully planned adaptations, but we have to start now.' The research also found that previous research underestimated heat mortality by not assessing the impact of older societies. Over the next 50 years, the population of England and Wales is predicted to age significantly, with the greatest increase in population size for those age 65 and over by the 2060s. Older people are more vulnerable in hot weather, with an extra 250 million people worldwide age 69 or above who will be exposed to dangerous levels of heat by 2050. The Guardian
The Independent
5 days ago
- Science
- The Independent
Fifty times more people to ‘die from heat-related deaths in England by 2070'
Fifty times more people could die from heat-related deaths in England and Wales by the 2070s due to climate change, a study warned. University College London (UCL) researchers found that 34,027 people could die in this period, compared to today's baseline figure of 634, based on a 4.3C warming prediction. It comes as Britain braces for its third heatwave in just a few weeks, with temperatures set to soar above 30C across many parts of the country. Even under a more optimistic model of 1.6C of warming, the study found that at least 3,007 people could die in the 2050s and 4,592 in the 2070s. Dr Clare Heaviside, of UCL, told Sky News: 'Over the next 50 years, the health impacts of a warming climate are going to be significant. 'We can mitigate their severity by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and with carefully planned adaptations, but we have to start now." The UK's 2022 summer, where the mercury hit 40.3C and 2,985 heat-related deaths were recorded, could become the 'new normal' by 2050, the study warned. By the 2060s, there could be between 21 to 32 extra hot days a year, according to the study. In the worst case, there could be between 64 to 73. Dr Akshay Deoras, from the University of Reading, added: 'If floods and storms are the loud alarms of climate change, extreme heat is its silent killer. 'It is disproportionately lethal, often going unnoticed until it's too late. With another heatwave bearing down on the UK, this warning feels more urgent than ever.' On Wednesday, World Weather Attribution said an estimated 263 additional people died in London during the recent heatwave. Global heating made the soaring temperatures that gripped much of Europe in late June and early July much more intense, the researchers found. The heatwaves were up to 4C hotter across cities compared to a world without the climate crisis, according to the study. The first rapid study to estimate the number of deaths linked to the climate crisis in a heatwave found human-driven global heating was responsible for around 65 per cent of the deaths that occurred across 12 cities, including London, Paris, Madrid, Barcelona and Rome. The study found around 1,500 of the 2,300 estimated heat deaths were the result of the climate crisis – equating to a tripling of the number of deaths in the heatwave due to global heating.
