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ECB to test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk in 2026
ECB to test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk in 2026

RTÉ News​

time15-07-2025

  • Business
  • RTÉ News​

ECB to test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk in 2026

The European Central Bank will test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk next year, telling them to come up with scenarios that would wipe out large chunks of their capital, chief ECB supervisor Claudia Buch said today. The ECB has long warned that geopolitics is one of the biggest risks for euro zone banks amid conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the trade war stoked by US President Donald Trump. It will now assess banks' preparedness to that type of risk, but with a twist. In typical stress tests, banks are given scenarios and must calculate how much capital would be wiped out under each. In this exercise, however, the ECB will hand out levels of capital depletion and tell banks to come up with scenarios that could cause them. "In the 2026 thematic stress test exercise, we will follow up on this year's stress test by asking banks to assess which firm-specific geopolitical risk scenarios could severely impact their solvency," Buch told the European Parliament. Supervisors have been telling banks for months to prepare for politically motivated disruption, including a global dollar drought if the Federal Reserve withdraws its lifelines. Next year's exercise will be part of banks' self-evaluation of their capital needs, known in regulatory jargon as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP). The ECB runs thematic health checks on euro zone banks every other year, that is when there is no European Union-wide stress test by the European Banking Authority. Its latest, in 2024, was about cyber-resilience.

ECB supervisors focus on risks from tariffs to cyber attacks, central bank sources say
ECB supervisors focus on risks from tariffs to cyber attacks, central bank sources say

The Star

time15-07-2025

  • Business
  • The Star

ECB supervisors focus on risks from tariffs to cyber attacks, central bank sources say

FILE PHOTO: A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File Photo FRANKFURT/MADRID (Reuters) -European Central Bank supervisors are focusing on issues ranging from tariffs to cyber attacks and a possible dollar shortage as they assess potential risks to the region's banking industry, five senior central bank officials told Reuters. The ECB is looking into these risks amidst a global trade war and conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. Chief ECB supervisor Claudia Buch said on Tuesday the central bank would test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk next year, telling them to come up with scenarios that had the potential to wipe out large chunks of their capital. In addition to this, ECB supervisors have been incorporating these risks into their regular checks for months, the sources, who asked to remain anonymous as details of the ECB's supervisory work are confidential, said. Banks have been told to watch their exposure to other countries, both via operations abroad and through credit to exporters, supervisors have told Reuters. Cyber attacks are also seen as a risk, particularly in Baltic countries, which have previously been the targets of Russian hackers, the sources said. The ECB has also told banks to prepare for a global dollar drought, for example if the Federal Reserve withdraws its lifelines, as Reuters reported earlier this year Supervisors are not telling banks to cut their exposures and they are not making specific recommendations at this stage, but rather urging banks to tighten their controls and think about contingency plans. The checks are taking place as part of the ECB's annual Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process and banks' own estimate of their liquidity needs, known in regulatory jargon as the Internal Liquidity Adequacy Assessment Process. An ECB spokesperson declined to comment. (Reporting by Francesco Canepa and Jesus Aguado; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

ECB supervisors focus on risks from tariffs to cyber attacks, central bank sources say
ECB supervisors focus on risks from tariffs to cyber attacks, central bank sources say

CNA

time15-07-2025

  • Business
  • CNA

ECB supervisors focus on risks from tariffs to cyber attacks, central bank sources say

FRANKFURT/MADRID :European Central Bank supervisors are focusing on issues ranging from tariffs to cyber attacks and a possible dollar shortage as they assess potential risks to the region's banking industry, five senior central bank officials told Reuters. The ECB is looking into these risks amidst a global trade war and conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. Chief ECB supervisor Claudia Buch said on Tuesday the central bank would test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk next year, telling them to come up with scenarios that had the potential to wipe out large chunks of their capital. In addition to this, ECB supervisors have been incorporating these risks into their regular checks for months, the sources, who asked to remain anonymous as details of the ECB's supervisory work are confidential, said. Banks have been told to watch their exposure to other countries, both via operations abroad and through credit to exporters, supervisors have told Reuters. Cyber attacks are also seen as a risk, particularly in Baltic countries, which have previously been the targets of Russian hackers, the sources said. The ECB has also told banks to prepare for a global dollar drought, for example if the Federal Reserve withdraws its lifelines, as Reuters reported earlier this year Supervisors are not telling banks to cut their exposures and they are not making specific recommendations at this stage, but rather urging banks to tighten their controls and think about contingency plans. The checks are taking place as part of the ECB's annual Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process and banks' own estimate of their liquidity needs, known in regulatory jargon as the Internal Liquidity Adequacy Assessment Process.

ECB supervisors focus on risks from tariffs to cyber attacks, central bank sources say
ECB supervisors focus on risks from tariffs to cyber attacks, central bank sources say

Yahoo

time15-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

ECB supervisors focus on risks from tariffs to cyber attacks, central bank sources say

By Francesco Canepa and Jesús Aguado FRANKFURT/MADRID (Reuters) -European Central Bank supervisors are focusing on issues ranging from tariffs to cyber attacks and a possible dollar shortage as they assess potential risks to the region's banking industry, five senior central bank officials told Reuters. The ECB is looking into these risks amidst a global trade war and conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. Chief ECB supervisor Claudia Buch said on Tuesday the central bank would test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk next year, telling them to come up with scenarios that had the potential to wipe out large chunks of their capital. In addition to this, ECB supervisors have been incorporating these risks into their regular checks for months, the sources, who asked to remain anonymous as details of the ECB's supervisory work are confidential, said. Banks have been told to watch their exposure to other countries, both via operations abroad and through credit to exporters, supervisors have told Reuters. Cyber attacks are also seen as a risk, particularly in Baltic countries, which have previously been the targets of Russian hackers, the sources said. The ECB has also told banks to prepare for a global dollar drought, for example if the Federal Reserve withdraws its lifelines, as Reuters reported earlier this year Supervisors are not telling banks to cut their exposures and they are not making specific recommendations at this stage, but rather urging banks to tighten their controls and think about contingency plans. The checks are taking place as part of the ECB's annual Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process and banks' own estimate of their liquidity needs, known in regulatory jargon as the Internal Liquidity Adequacy Assessment Process. An ECB spokesperson declined to comment.

ECB to test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk in 2026
ECB to test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk in 2026

Business Times

time15-07-2025

  • Business
  • Business Times

ECB to test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk in 2026

[FRANKFURT] The European Central Bank will test banks' resilience to geopolitical risk next year, telling them to come up with scenarios that would wipe out large chunks of their capital, chief ECB supervisor Claudia Buch said on Tuesday (Jul 15). The ECB has long warned that geopolitics is one of the biggest risks for eurozone banks amid conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the trade war stoked by US President Donald Trump. It will now assess banks' preparedness to that type of risk, but with a twist: in typical stress tests, banks are given scenarios and must calculate how much capital would be wiped out under each. In this exercise, however, the ECB will hand out levels of capital depletion and tell banks to come up with scenarios that could cause them. 'In the 2026 thematic stress test exercise, we will follow up on this year's stress test by asking banks to assess which firm-specific geopolitical risk scenarios could severely impact their solvency,' Buch told the European Parliament. Supervisors have been telling banks for months to prepare for politically motivated disruption, including a global dollar drought if the Federal Reserve withdraws its lifelines. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Next year's exercise will be part of banks' self-evaluation of their capital needs, known in regulatory jargon as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP). The ECB runs thematic health checks on eurozone banks every other year, that is when there is no European Union-wide stress test by the European Banking Authority. Its latest, in 2024, was about cyber-resilience. The results of the EBA's latest stress test, which includes some US tariffs in its adverse scenario, will be announced in early August. REUTERS

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