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Winnipeg Free Press
3 days ago
- Business
- Winnipeg Free Press
Renewed marketing, product development keys to improved pork sales: report
Opinion Canadian pork producers are likely to chew slowly as they digest a report released this week by one of the largest agricultural creditors in the U.S. While the paper by CoBank focuses on U.S. pork production and consumption trends, the North American hog and pork industries are highly integrated. Whatever happens in this report's wake, if anything, will spill across the border to influence the Canadian sector. Nearly one-quarter of the pigs born in Canada are sent to the U.S. for feeding and slaughter. Sixty per cent of those live hog exports are weanlings sent to U.S. feeding operations. Canada also exported US$1.7 billion in pork products to the U.S. in 2024, while importing US$850 million back. JOHN LOCHER / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS FILES Pigs eat from a trough at the Las Vegas Livestock farming operation in Nevada CoBank says the U.S. industry's continued reliance on export sales to places like Mexico, China, South Korea and Canada for nearly a quarter of its production is becoming too risky because of 'new trade policies' creating more volatility in global trade. Even without U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs in the mix, trade with China has fallen sharply since record sales in 2020. That country's domestic production rebounded faster than expected following a devastating outbreak of African swine fever in 2018. Sales to China in 2024 were less than a quarter of the kilograms sold five years ago. Bacon has achieved a cult-like following and sausage products have gained appeal, which has doubled the market prices for the pork bellies and trimmings used to make them. However, the 'muscle cuts,' such as pork loins and hams, are often discounted because they aren't as convenient and consumers often don't know how to cook them. 'Sluggish exports could mean more pork loins in domestic markets, and U.S. consumers have difficulty cooking 'the perfect pork chop,'' the report says. Exports of so-called 'variety meats,' such as livers, hearts, kidneys, tongues, stomachs, snouts, ears, feet and tails, were worth $1.3 billion in 2024, but they aren't popular menu items in North America. 'Any trade barriers in place for countries that purchase variety meats could cause implications for the U.S. pork sector because those products have extremely limited demand in the U.S.,' CoBank says. The industry has launched campaigns focused on convincing consumers they need more pork on their forks, something the Canadian sector has been working on, too. Even though Canadian pork consumption is much lower, at about 16 kg per capita, recent marketing efforts have achieved increases of just under 15 per cent. CoBank warns increasing U.S. consumption, which has remained static at about 22 kg per capita since the 1970s, will be challenging because the parts of the animal the industry currently exports are such a hard to sell to American consumers. 'If the U.S. consumer is to reimagine pork, the pork industry may need to make drastic changes, including recalibrating the genetic hog makeup and showcasing different cuts at retail and through food service.' CoBank cites Kansas State University research that names taste as the primary driver for protein purchases. When it comes to animal protein, the flavour is in the fat. Weekday Evenings Today's must-read stories and a roundup of the day's headlines, delivered every evening. That's a problem for a sector that heeded the low-fat messaging of yesteryear and shifted genetic focus in selecting breeding stock towards lean carcass weights, rapid growth and feeding efficiency. CoBank says the industry needs to rethink that strategy if it wants to convince consumers to eat more pork. It also must put more effort into marketing and new product development focused on eating quality and convenience. 'The lean hog formulation that was adopted by the broad bulk of U.S. producers more than two decades ago has largely influenced the pork that U.S. consumers are offered today,' the report says. 'This has left something to be desired when comparing pork chops to beef steaks, often with an overcooked chop delivering a bad experience.' CoBank is signalling a shift in market direction that has obvious implications for the Canadian sector. When it's time to make a change, the consolidated and vertically integrated industry will be able to pivot relatively quickly. However, with all the moving parts to this equation, now is not the time. Laura Rance is executive editor, production content lead for Glacier FarmMedia. She can be reached at lrance@ Laura RanceColumnist Laura Rance is editorial director at Farm Business Communications. Read full biography Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber. Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trade uncertainty is depressing new-crop sales of US corn and soybeans
Grain elevators and merchandisers that are heavily reliant on export demand may be forced into widening basis to attract local demand DENVER, May 22, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ongoing uncertainty about the direction of international trade policy is clouding the outlook for U.S. grain elevators and merchandisers. The lack of clarity surrounding tariffs with key U.S. trading partners like China has pulled new-crop sales well below historical averages. Many foreign buyers have reduced forward coverage and are buying in the spot market, complicating the picture for elevators and merchandisers that are heavily reliant on export demand. According to a new research brief from CoBank's Knowledge Exchange, the longer the uncertainty continues to drag on sales of new-crop exports, export-dependent grain elevators and merchandisers risk entering the 2025/26 marketing year with greater reliance on local demand, which may be scarce in some regions. 'Elevators and grain merchandisers with exposure to high-risk export markets, especially China, may be forced into widening new-crop basis to attract local demand,' said Tanner Ehmke, grains and oilseeds economist with CoBank. 'Basis for corn, soybeans and wheat is strong now. However, if new-crop sales remain lethargic, basis could weaken substantially, particularly for soybeans in the northern Plains and northern Midwest with high exposure to the Chinese market.' As of May 1, U.S. new-crop export sales were well below their five-year historical averages, with soybeans falling 88.2% and corn dropping 26.9%. All-wheat sales were slightly ahead of their five-year average at the beginning of May. China has been conspicuously absent with no sales on the books for U.S. soybeans, corn or wheat. Since the tariffs were initially announced, China escalated purchases of soybeans from Brazil, suspended soybean shipments from three U.S. companies and signed letters of intent with Argentine exporters to purchase soybeans, corn and vegetable oil. Mexico and Japan, the second and third largest markets for U.S. soybeans, are also lagging well below historical purchases of new-crop soybeans for this time of year. Wheat sales into major markets like the Philippines and Korea lag historical levels, while corn new-crop sales to important destinations like Japan and Latin America are behind average. Strong old-crop sales and domestic usage that has supported local basis have largely masked the drop in new-crop sales. Total U.S. export commitments for the 2024-2025 marketing year are up 27% for corn, 13% for soybeans and 14% for wheat year-over-year. Processing margins for soybean crushers and ethanol producers have been positive while feeding margins from livestock and poultry feeders are strong. For grain elevators and merchandisers that typically book grain sales out several months in advance, the headwinds of trade uncertainty remain firmly in place. While trade negotiations between the U.S. and China and numerous other countries have been announced, the lack of clarity on policy will continue to be a drag on U.S. new-crop grain and oilseed sales. However, Ehmke said some elevators and merchandisers will avoid the worst impacts of a challenging trade environment and others may benefit from changing market dynamics. 'Elevators with the advantage of strong local demand from ethanol plants, soybean crushers, flour mills and livestock operators will be shielded from the loss of export business. For those that do rely on export demand, lower rail rates could provide an opportunity for captive bushels to move east, while a weakening U.S. dollar may attract new export demand from smaller markets to help backfill the loss of sales to China.' Read the research brief, Trade Uncertainty Depressing New-Crop Sales. About CoBank CoBank is a cooperative bank serving vital industries across rural America. The bank provides loans, leases, export financing and other financial services to agribusinesses and rural power, water and communications providers in all 50 states. The bank also provides wholesale loans and other financial services to affiliated Farm Credit associations serving more than 78,000 farmers, ranchers and other rural borrowers in 23 states around the country. CoBank is a member of the Farm Credit System, a nationwide network of banks and retail lending associations chartered to support the borrowing needs of U.S. agriculture, rural infrastructure and rural communities. Headquartered outside Denver, Colorado, CoBank serves customers from regional banking centers across the U.S. and also maintains an international representative office in Singapore. CONTACT: Corporate Communications CoBank 800-542-8072 news@ in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
CoBank Quarterly: Tariffs compound economic anxiety among US consumers and businesses amid fears of economic slowdown
Historic shift in trade policy risks long-term loss of trust among key global market partners DENVER, April 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Consumer and business sentiment regarding the U.S. economic outlook continues to deteriorate after dropping sharply over the past few months. Rapidly worsening expectations about everything – from inflation and personal income to business and labor market conditions – are elevating concerns among business owners, investors and consumers alike. So far, the hard data on key economic indicators like unemployment, job creation, weekly payrolls and consumer expenditures suggest the U.S. economy remains fairly strong. Even the recent stock market pullback is a symptom of flagging confidence about the future rather than a reflection of current business performance. The question on the minds of investors, businesses and corporate boards is whether the declining expectations will soon translate into slower spending and tightening profit margins. According to a new quarterly report from CoBank's Knowledge Exchange, the answer to that question will likely come into view by the end of June, if not sooner. Historic data suggests that declines in consumer spending begin to become apparent three to five months after a sharp decline in economic sentiment. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of all U.S. economic activity. 'Not including the brief pandemic-related recession, which was overwhelmed by massive government stimulus, the previous three U.S. recessions in 1990, 2000 and 2007 were all forewarned by weakening sentiment that led to a steep decline in consumer spending,' said Rob Fox, director of CoBank's Knowledge Exchange. 'The next set of hard data from reports on retail sales and consumer spending should begin to provide some guidance as to which way the economy is heading.' Despite a 90-day partial reprieve, the new tariff regime remains likely to increase inflation and cut economic growth, Fox added. 'While the severity of the near-term effects is up for debate, the longer-term impact of capricious U.S. trade policy is the likely loss of trust abroad in U.S. policymaking, something that will be very hard to regain.' Until recently, most observers viewed the administration's tariff campaign as a short-term negotiating tactic. It now appears a primary objective is to bring more manufacturing capabilities back within U.S. borders, which will take time. But unpredictable tariff policy could stand in the way of achieving that goal, as businesses are unlikely to invest millions or billions of dollars based on expectations of a policy that's subject to change at any moment. U.S. Government AffairsWith the whole country watching the impact of President Trump's sweeping tariffs, Congress has yet to act on this economic gambit. Currently equity and commodity markets are weakening, and the patience of the American people is being tested. Many individuals and businesses are hoping to see the tax law extended, several industries need meaningful immigration reform, and agriculture still demands a Farm Bill. The American public will ultimately demand a functioning Congress. Grains, Farm Supply & Biofuels Uncertainty over trade and biofuel policy pulled corn, soybean and wheat prices down last quarter, despite the tailwind of a weakening U.S. dollar. Trade concerns weighed most heavily on wheat prices as world buyers have multiple exporters at their disposal. U.S. grain stocks on March 1 revealed a strong usage pace for corn and soybeans, but wheat usage continued to fall. Farmers intend to plant the largest corn acreage in the U.S. since 2013 as corn offers the greatest margin opportunity. Crop production expenses are expected to continue trending downward, but they remain elevated in relation to lower commodity prices. While fertilizer prices have fallen, last year's wet fall will require heavier spring applications and rising corn acreage signals more demand for nitrogen. Ag retailers and farm supply cooperatives head into the spring agronomy season facing labor challenges and obstacles sourcing crop chemicals from China. Growth in biologicals remains a bright spot for cooperatives. Renewable diesel and biodiesel production has scaled back to find stability in the absence of the blender's tax credit, pushing prices above petroleum. Domestic production was down 41% year-over-year for January and February as margin pressure exceeded projections. Establishment of the renewable volume obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard and decisions on the Clean Fuel Production Credit will largely determine the trajectory of biofuels demand and production. Animal Protein & DairyRecord high prices across the beef cattle sector remain amid continuing herd liquidation and delayed rebuilding. Despite volatility in the U.S. cattle herd, the beef sector has been able to maintain production to meet strong consumer demand. Through the third week of March, U.S. beef production was up slightly compared to 2024. Weekly dressed cattle weights have pushed 3% to 6% higher than a year ago, hitting a record 882 lbs. per head in late January. Packer margins remain squeezed as feeder cattle prices are continuing their upward trajectory. The U.S. pork sector is positioned for moderate growth this year, which should support hog prices and keep pork an affordable protein alternative to beef. Growing export opportunities and strengthening domestic interest in pork are moving U.S. hog prices higher. Lean hog and cutout prices were up to start 2025 and early signs of an upward turn in the production cycle are emerging. Pork producer margins have been positive for 11 consecutive months through February 2025. Strong broiler prices and low inventory levels are fueling optimism in the poultry sector. Production metrics have yielded a moderately favorable outlook for 2025. Chick placements are up 2.5% year-to-date. Breast meat prices have been on the rise. But with beef prices chasing record highs, food service outlets have ample incentive to center feature activity on white meat chicken. That bodes well for broiler integrators and consumers as the chicken segment tends to attract shoppers seeking value. The potential for prolonged trade disputes with Mexico, Canada and China threatens the outlook for U.S. dairy demand. Combined, the three countries account for one-half of all U.S. dairy exports. Market uncertainty has sent futures contracts tumbling. From early January to early April, April-to-June Class III milk futures fell by $2.57 per cwt. Class IV dropped even further, losing $2.73 over 100 days. Despite the headwinds, dairy continues to have some bright spots, most notably lower feed costs. Cotton, Rice & SugarU.S. cotton farmers are struggling with the lowest cotton prices in five years. Slowing consumer demand, ample world supplies and trade policy concerns have driven prices lower. Total U.S. cotton export commitments at the end of the first quarter were down 4.6% year-over-year. Purchases from China – the world's top cotton buyer – were down 82.6%. China harvested its biggest cotton crop in 11 years. Brazil, the world's top cotton exporter, is also set to harvest a record crop. The flood of Indian rice onto the world market following the country's lift on export restrictions has pulled U.S. long-grain prices to four-year lows. U.S. rough rice stocks on March 1 were down 3.6% year-over-year due to strong export demand from Mexico. But the durability of last quarter's swift export pace is under scrutiny. Uncertainty over trade policy is showing signs of curbing demand for U.S. rice abroad. Despite tightness in world sugar supplies, the large U.S. sugarbeet harvest last fall has capped price rallies. Sugar imports from Mexico are expected to be the lowest since 2007/2008 as Mexico struggles with drought and lower cane sugar production. U.S. sugarbeet farmers are expected to expand planted acreage this spring with USDA forecasting acreage to climb to 1.132 million, the highest in three years. Food & BeverageFood and beverage manufacturers are revising their sales and earnings expectations downward as consumer sentiment has soured. Prices remain a top concern for consumers, who continue to pull back on grocery spending. More than 80% of U.S. consumers anticipate tariffs will raise prices, with groceries expected to see the highest increases. Recognizing that more price increases could lead to volume attrition, food and beverage manufacturers are aiming to improve efficiencies and demonstrate value. Growth in private label grocery sales, which reached record levels in 2024, is expected to continue. Power & Digital InfrastructureSurging power demand and a faster replacement cycle for aging infrastructure is causing electricity prices to outpace inflation for consumers. Even greater cost escalation could lie ahead, as critical elements of the electricity supply chain face new import tariffs and accelerating trade headwinds. Spending on delivering electricity has been increasing at the fastest clip in decades, with a growth rate of 50% over the past five years. The U.S. power grid needs substantial investment, but with much of the supply chain imported, the price tag is rising. The Trump administration is expected to loosen requirements for the $42.5 billion Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment program. Changes will likely include a more technology-agnostic approach to how the money is allocated, which will benefit wireless technologies. Under the previous administration, the BEAD program took a fiber-first approach to 'future proof' networks built in rural America. Reduced emphasis on fiber means fixed wireless access and low earth orbiting satellites could play a larger role in rural America's broadband access and accelerate connectivity. Read The Quarterly. Each CoBank Quarterly provides updates and an outlook for the Macro Economy and U.S. Agricultural Markets; Grains, Biofuels and Farm Supply; Animal Protein; Dairy; Cotton and Rice; Specialty Crops; Food & Beverage industries and Rural Infrastructure. About CoBank CoBank is a cooperative bank serving vital industries across rural America. The bank provides loans, leases, export financing and other financial services to agribusinesses and rural power, water and communications providers in all 50 states. The bank also provides wholesale loans and other financial services to affiliated Farm Credit associations serving more than 78,000 farmers, ranchers and other rural borrowers in 23 states around the country. CoBank is a member of the Farm Credit System, a nationwide network of banks and retail lending associations chartered to support the borrowing needs of U.S. agriculture, rural infrastructure and rural communities. Headquartered outside Denver, Colorado, CoBank serves customers from regional banking centers across the U.S. and also maintains an international representative office in Singapore. CONTACT: Corporate Communications CoBank 800-542-8072 news@ in to access your portfolio
New York Times
26-03-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Shell Shocked: How Small Eateries Are Dealing With Record Egg Prices
'Making It Work' is a series about small-business owners striving to endure hard times. Bird flu outbreaks that wiped out about 15 percent of the nation's egg-laying chickens and drove wholesale egg prices to a peak of more than $8.50 a dozen in February have vexed grocery shoppers and prompted big breakfast chains to add surcharges to diners' checks. But for owners of small eateries, paying double or triple for an ingredient they crack by the hundreds each day could potentially put them out of business. These business owners are getting creative: changing recipes; using liquid or powdered eggs, which haven't gotten as expensive as quickly; and selling whatever items they can that don't include eggs — things like falafel or packaged snacks or even fresh flowers. Prices have come down in recent weeks but remain historically high, and worry about new outbreaks is keeping business owners on edge. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted on Tuesday that egg prices would climb nearly 58 percent this year. Food trends like all-day breakfast menus and protein-heavy diets are keeping demand — and therefore prices — high, according to analysts at CoBank, a bank that lends to farmers. Eggs are too perishable to be stockpiled and small businesses generally don't have extra cash for refrigerator space to keep extra eggs even for brief periods, said Rob Handfield, a professor and the director of the Supply Chain Resource Cooperative at North Carolina State University. 'It's not like you can stock up on a month's worth of eggs,' he said. 'You really rely on those weekly or daily deliveries of eggs if you're a small business.' Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
The Independent
08-02-2025
- The Independent
Police yet to crack the case of who stole 100,000 eggs
Police have yet to crack a whodunit that grabbed the public's attention; the heist of 100,000 eggs from the back of a trailer in Pennsylvania. Four days after the theft that law enforcement say could be tied to the sky-high cost of eggs, no leads have come in, Trooper First Class Megan Frazer, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania State Police, said.. 'We're relying on leads from people from the community. So we're hoping that somebody knows something, and they'll call us and give us some tips,' she said. Police are also following up with any possible witnesses and looking into surveillance footage that could help them identify the perpetrator as they race to solve the mystery. 'In my career, I've never heard of a hundred thousand eggs being stolen. This is definitely unique," said Frazer, who has a dozen years on the job. Bird flu is forcing farmers to slaughter millions of chickens a month, pushing U.S. egg prices to more than double their cost in the summer of 2023. And it appears there may be no relief in sight with Easter approaching. The average price per dozen eggs nationwide hit $4.15 in December. That is not quite as high as the $4.82 record set two years ago, but the Agriculture Department predicts egg prices are going to soar another 20% this year. The 100,000 eggs were snatched from the back of Pete & Gerry's Organics' distribution trailer on Saturday about 8:40 p.m. in Antrim Township, Pennsylvania, according to police. They are worth about $40,000, which means this crime is a felony, Frazer said. Pete & Gerry's Organics LLC said in a statement that the company is working with law enforcement to investigate the theft. 'We take this matter seriously and are committed to resolving it as quickly as possible,' the statement said. U.S. egg prices are likely to remain high past Easter and well into 2025, largely because of avian flu, according to CoBank, a Denver-based provider of loans and other financial services to the agriculture sector. The highly contagious virus has affected nearly 100 million egg-laying hens in the U.S. since 2022. But CoBank said other factors are also causing supply constraints and driving up prices, such as skyrocketing consumer demand for eggs in recent years. Fast-growing breakfast and brunch chains like First Watch are also eating up supplies.
